Weekly Market Outlook — 13 July 2026

US indices ground higher last week despite geopolitical noise, with tech showing relative strength as we head into earnings season. This week, I'm watching whether US30 can reclaim the 53,000 zone or if we're setting up for a deeper pullback into support.

Last Week in Review

Last week delivered a mixed bag across global markets, with US indices showing resilience despite escalating tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 gained 0.50% and NAS100 added 0.43%, both closing near their weekly highs, whilst US30 shed 0.79% in a week characterised by choppy intraday action. Oil markets responded predictably to geopolitical risk, with WTI up 1.35% and Brent climbing 1.61%, whilst natural gas collapsed 9.62% on oversupply concerns. The FTSE 100 underperformed, down 1.45%, and precious metals traded sideways with gold flat at 4,073 and silver up just 1.11%.

US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook

US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

US30 closed the week at 52,637, down 0.79%, printing a bearish weekly candle after failing to hold above the 53,000 psychological level. Price tested the 5-day high at 53,289 mid-week before sellers stepped in, and we're now consolidating just above the 5-day low at 52,069. My bias this week is cautiously bullish IF we can reclaim and hold above 52,500 with conviction — that previous close level is critical. Above there, I'm watching for a push back towards 53,000-53,289 resistance zone. Key support sits at 52,069 (5-day low), and a break below that opens the door to further downside towards 51,800. The setup I'm watching: if US30 holds above 52,400 on Monday and reclaims 52,700, I'm looking for longs targeting 53,200. Invalidation is clear — a daily close below 52,000 flips me neutral to bearish, and I'd be looking to fade rallies rather than chase breakouts. With earnings season kicking off and geopolitical risk still elevated, expect volatility, but the trend remains up on higher timeframes.

NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook

NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

NAS100 continues to show relative strength, closing at 29,825, up 0.33% on the week after testing the 5-day high at 29,856. Tech remains the leader here, and with major earnings reports due this week, we could see explosive moves in either direction. My bias is bullish above 29,700 — that's the line in the sand. Above there, I'm targeting a retest of 29,856 and potentially a breakout towards 30,000 psychological resistance. Support sits at 29,727 (previous close), with stronger support at the 5-day low of 28,814, though I don't expect us to revisit that level unless we get a major risk-off event. The AI narrative continues to underpin tech strength, and as long as the mega-caps hold up in earnings, NAS100 should outperform. Watch for volatility around Netflix and JPMorgan earnings — both could set the tone for the week.

Quick Takes

S&P 500: Holding above 7,543 keeps the bullish structure intact; watching 7,579 (5-day high) for a breakout towards 7,600.

FTSE 100: Underperforming at 10,497, down 1.45% weekly; needs to reclaim 10,500 to avoid further downside towards 10,397 support.

WTI Oil: Strong bounce to 74.51 on Middle East tensions; resistance at 76.08 (5-day high), support at 71.41 — geopolitical premium still priced in.

GBP/USD: Drifting lower at 1.3380; watching 1.3324 (5-day low) as key support — break below targets 1.3250, whilst reclaim of 1.3400 opens 1.3450.

Key Events This Week

• Monday, 18:00 GMT — US Monthly Budget Statement (Jun): Forecast -132.8B vs previous -293B. Fiscal data rarely moves markets, but worth monitoring given debt ceiling debates brewing in Washington.
• Monday, 23:01 GMT — UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Jun): Forecast 2.9% vs previous 3.4%. A slowdown here could weigh on FTSE consumer stocks and GBP sentiment.
• This Week — US Earnings Season Kicks Off: JPMorgan Chase and Netflix report this week, alongside 28 S&P 500 companies. This is the biggest risk event — earnings beats or misses will drive directional moves, particularly in tech and financials.
• Fed Speakers (Bowman 09:25 GMT, Waller 16:30 GMT): Watch for any hawkish/dovish shifts in rhetoric around rate policy — the market is still pricing in cuts later this year, and any pushback could spark USD strength.

The single biggest risk this week is earnings season — particularly the mega-cap tech names. A disappointment from Netflix or the big banks could trigger a sharp reversal in sentiment.

The Week Ahead — My Game Plan

I'm starting the week with a cautiously bullish bias on US indices, but I'm not chasing here — I want to see US30 reclaim 52,700 and NAS100 hold above 29,700 before I commit to longs. If we get early weakness, I'll be watching those 5-day lows (52,069 on US30, 28,814 on NAS100) as potential dip-buying zones, but only with clear bullish price action. Earnings season is the wildcard, and volatility will spike, so I'm keeping position sizes tight and stops disciplined. As always, trade what you see, not what you think — and don't let FOMO override your plan.