Weekly Market Outlook — 13 April 2026

Last week delivered a powerful relief rally across US indices despite oil surging back above $100 on escalating Middle East tensions. This week, the focus shifts to earnings season and whether equities can hold these gains while crude continues to squeeze higher — I'm watching key resistance levels closely for signs of continuation or rejection.

Last Week in Review

Markets delivered a strong bounce last week, shrugging off geopolitical concerns as traders appeared to price in 'peak fear' around the Iran situation. The S&P 500 rallied +3.10% to close at 6,816.89, whilst the NASDAQ 100 outperformed with a +3.82% gain to 25,116.34. The Dow Jones added +2.67% to finish at 47,916.57, and even the FTSE 100 managed a modest +1.57% to 10,600.53. The standout story was crude oil — WTI surged +10.94% to 104.74 as Trump announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks. Despite the energy shock, risk assets rallied hard, suggesting markets have moved from panic to positioning for a resolution.

US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook

US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

US30 closed the week at 47,916.57, printing a strong bullish weekly candle after bouncing hard from last Monday's low of 46,214.77. That low now becomes critical support — it's the line in the sand for the bulls. On the upside, we've got immediate resistance at the previous close of 48,185.80, with the 5-day high at 48,323.95 acting as the key level to reclaim for continuation. My bias this week is cautiously bullish above 47,000 — if we hold that psychological level and the 46,214 low stays intact, I'm looking for a retest of 48,300 and potentially a push towards 48,500. The setup I'm watching: a pullback into the 47,500-47,700 zone that holds, followed by a reclaim of 48,186 — that's where I'd look for longs targeting 48,324 first, then 48,500. Invalidation is clear: a break and close below 46,214 flips the script bearish and opens the door to deeper selling. With earnings season kicking off this week, volatility could spike — JPMorgan and Netflix report, and their guidance will set the tone. If US30 can digest the oil shock and hold structure, we could see follow-through. If not, that 46,214 low is getting tested again.

NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook

NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

NAS100 put in an impressive +3.82% week, closing at 25,116.34 after bouncing violently from the 23,779.85 low. That low is now your key support — lose it and we're back in trouble. Resistance sits at the 5-day high of 25,226.06, which needs to be cleared for bulls to regain control. My bias is neutral-to-bullish this week, but I need to see a clean break above 25,226 before committing to longs. Tech has been resilient despite the macro noise, but earnings will be the real test — if guidance disappoints, this bounce could unwind quickly. The level I'm watching is 25,000 psychological support: hold it, and we likely grind higher towards 25,500. Break it, and we're revisiting 24,000. I'm not chasing here — I want confirmation above 25,226 or a solid bounce off 25,000 before entering. The 23,779 low is the ultimate invalidation for any bullish thesis.

Quick Takes

S&P 500: Closed at 6,816.89 after a +3.10% week — watching 6,845 resistance (5-day high) for continuation or rejection back towards 6,534 support.

WTI Oil: Explosive +10.94% move to 104.74 — now testing the 5-day high at 109.19; if geopolitical tensions escalate further, we could see a run towards 110-115, but a de-escalation headline could trigger a sharp reversal towards 100.

GBP/USD: Strong +1.30% rally to 1.3406 as the dollar weakened — resistance at 1.3484 (5-day high) is the next target; support sits at 1.3212.

Gold: Flat week at 4,738.60 despite the geopolitical backdrop — range-bound between 4,626 support and 4,851 resistance; needs a catalyst to break out.

Key Events This Week

• Monday, 14:00 GMT — US Existing Home Sales (March): Forecast 4.01M vs 4.09M prior. Housing data has been weak — another miss could weigh on sentiment, though it's unlikely to move indices significantly unless it's a major surprise.
• Earnings Season Kicks Off: JPMorgan Chase and Netflix report this week, setting the tone for Q1 earnings. Guidance will be critical — if corporates signal resilience despite oil shocks and geopolitical noise, equities can extend. If they sound cautious, this rally could stall.
• Fed Miran Speech (Monday, 22:20 GMT): Any commentary on inflation (which just hit 3.3% in the US due to soaring pump prices) or rate policy could move markets, especially if he signals concern about the oil-driven inflation spike.
• Geopolitical Headlines: The biggest risk this week isn't on the economic calendar — it's newsflow around the Strait of Hormuz blockade and any potential escalation or de-escalation with Iran. A surprise peace deal sends oil crashing and equities soaring; further escalation does the opposite.

The Week Ahead — My Game Plan

My bias this week is cautiously bullish on US indices, but I'm not married to it — I need to see follow-through above key resistance levels (48,186 on US30, 25,226 on NAS100) before adding risk. The market has absorbed a lot of bad news, and if earnings come in solid, we could see another leg higher. However, oil above $100 is a wildcard, and any fresh geopolitical shock could derail this rally quickly. I'm watching those support levels closely — 46,214 on US30 and 23,779 on NAS100 are the lines in the sand. If we hold and build on last week's strength, I'll look for tactical longs into resistance. If we break support, I'm flipping bearish and looking for shorts. As always, size your positions appropriately — volatility is elevated, and headlines can move markets 2-3% in minutes. Trade what you see, not what you think, and protect your capital first.