Weekly Market Outlook — 05 October 2026

US indices closed mixed last week with tech leading the charge whilst the Dow lagged, and this week's divergence sets up some interesting setups heading into October. With Treasury yields still elevated and a weak jobs report in the rear-view mirror, I'm watching how price reacts at key technical levels before committing to directional plays.

Last Week in Review

Tech strength drove US markets higher despite a shockingly weak jobs report showing just 29,000 payrolls added in September, well below the 84,000 forecast. The dollar firmed on the back of rising Treasury yields, pressuring EUR/USD down -1.62% for the week, whilst commodities were mixed with silver rallying +2.07% and Brent crude falling -1.97%. It was a week of rotation rather than broad risk-on or risk-off — tech bid, cyclicals and energy sold.

US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook

US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

US30 closed the week at 51,176.96, down -0.59%, printing a relatively indecisive weekly candle after testing the 5-day high at 51,780.50 mid-week before fading lower. The index is now consolidating just above the 5-day low at 50,546.54, which becomes my primary support level to watch this week. A break and close below 50,546 would shift my bias bearish and open the door for a move towards the 50,000 psychological handle. On the upside, resistance sits at the previous week's close of 50,926.56, with the 5-day high at 51,780.50 acting as the key bull/bear line — reclaim that and we're likely targeting 52,000+.

My bias this week is cautiously bullish above 50,546 support, but I'm not chasing here. If US30 holds above 50,900 and reclaims 51,200 with conviction, I'm looking for longs targeting 51,780 and then 52,000. However, if we lose 50,546, I'm flipping bearish and watching for a retest of the 50,000 zone. The weak jobs data and rising yields create a tricky macro backdrop, so I'm waiting for price to show its hand before committing size.

NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook

NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

NAS100 was the standout performer last week, rallying +1.75% to close at 30,807.93, just shy of the 5-day high at 31,017.53. The index is showing relative strength compared to the Dow, which is typical when growth and tech are being favoured over cyclicals. Key support now sits at the previous close of 30,501.56, with the 5-day low at 30,081.06 acting as the line in the sand for bulls. A break below 30,081 would be concerning and likely trigger a deeper correction towards 30,000.

On the upside, 31,017.53 is the immediate resistance — a clean break above that level opens the door for a run towards 31,200 and potentially 31,500 if momentum continues. My bias remains bullish above 30,500, and I'm looking for pullbacks into the 30,600-30,700 zone as potential long entries targeting the 5-day high. Tech earnings optimism and corporate profit expectations are supportive, but watch how NAS100 reacts if Treasury yields push higher this week.

Quick Takes

S&P 500: Closed at 7,722.72, up +0.51% for the week — holding above 7,666 support with 7,754 resistance in play; neutral to slightly bullish above 7,616.

Gold: Flat at 4,166.20, down just -0.49% — consolidating below the 5-day high at 4,259; watching for a break above 4,200 to signal fresh highs or a drop below 4,152 for weakness.

GBP/USD: Slipped to 1.3209, down -0.34% — dollar strength pressuring cable; support at 1.3182, resistance at 1.3307; bearish below 1.3180.

Key Events This Week

• Monday, 14:00 GMT — US ISM Services PMI (Sep): Forecast 55.7 vs 55.4 prior. This is the biggest event of the week and could move indices significantly if we see a surprise miss or beat, especially given the weak jobs data.
• Fed Minutes (expected mid-week): Markets will be looking for clues on the Fed's stance on further rate hikes, particularly with the real fed-funds rate now surprisingly low despite elevated yields.
• Treasury Yields: Not a scheduled event, but the continued move in yields above 5% is the macro story — watch how equities react if yields push higher.

The Week Ahead — My Game Plan

This week I'm playing defence until price shows me a clear hand. My bias is cautiously bullish on US30 above 50,546 and NAS100 above 30,500, but I'm not forcing trades in this environment. The ISM Services PMI on Monday is the key risk event — a strong print could fuel another leg higher in indices, whilst a miss could trigger a flush towards support. I'm watching for pullbacks into support zones as potential long entries, but if we lose the 5-day lows, I'm stepping aside and waiting for the next setup. As always, risk management comes first — don't let one bad trade derail your week.