Weekly Market Outlook — 04 May 2026

US indices closed last week with modest gains despite significant volatility in energy markets, as geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate headlines. This week, I'm watching whether tech can sustain its momentum above key levels whilst oil stabilises — the setup favours selective long exposure, but risk management remains critical.

Last Week in Review

Last week delivered a tale of two markets — US indices ground higher with the NASDAQ leading the charge at +1.48%, whilst energy markets saw dramatic swings with Brent crude collapsing -9.55% and WTI down -6.13% despite ongoing Middle East supply concerns. The S&P 500 added +0.78% and US30 gained +0.67%, both printing fresh weekly highs before Friday's modest pullback. It was a choppy, headline-driven week that rewarded patient traders who waited for confirmation rather than chasing the noise. Precious metals showed strength with silver surging +6.18% and gold adding +1.67%, suggesting underlying safe-haven demand remains intact despite the equity rally.

US30 (Dow Jones) — Weekly Outlook

US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

US30 closed the week at 49,499.27, printing a small bearish candle after rejecting the 49,988.56 high — a classic case of bulls running out of steam near psychological 50,000. The 5-day range from 48,708.57 to 49,988.56 tells the story: we tested the upper boundary and got rejected. Key support now sits at 49,000 psychological, with the 5-day low at 48,708.57 as the critical level that must hold to keep the weekly uptrend intact. Resistance is clear at 49,988.56 (last week's high) and then the round 50,000 figure.

My bias this week is cautiously bullish above 48,700 — if we hold that level and reclaim 49,650 (previous close), I'm looking for longs targeting a retest of 50,000. The setup requires patience: I want to see a daily close back above 49,650 before committing to upside. Below 48,700, the bias flips neutral and I'd expect a deeper retracement towards 48,000. The geopolitical backdrop remains the wildcard here — any escalation in the Middle East could trigger sharp moves in either direction. Watch for how price reacts at 49,000 on Monday; a clean bounce keeps us in play for higher prices.

NAS100 (NASDAQ) — Weekly Outlook

NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) Weekly Chart — EMA 9 (orange) & EMA 50 (blue) | Source: ChartsView

NAS100 closed at 27,710.36, up +1.48% on the week and showing relative strength compared to the broader market. The weekly candle is bullish, closing near the highs after testing 26,877.59 early in the week — that's a 900-point range that provided plenty of opportunity. Key resistance sits at 27,787.12 (5-day high), with support at 27,452.12 (previous close) and then the psychological 27,000 level.

I'm bullish on tech above 27,450 — the structure here is cleaner than US30, and with earnings season continuing this week (Palantir, AMD, Disney all reporting), there's potential for further upside if results impress. A break and hold above 27,787 opens the door to 28,000+. Invalidation comes on a daily close below 27,000, which would signal profit-taking and a potential deeper correction. The AI spending narrative continues to underpin tech strength, but we need to see follow-through buying this week to confirm the breakout.

Quick Takes

S&P 500: Closed at 7,230.12 (+0.78%), holding above 7,200 — clean support at 7,107.86 (5-day low), resistance at 7,272.52, bias remains bullish above 7,200.

WTI Oil: Collapsed to 100.33 despite Middle East tensions — watching 98.42 (5-day low) as critical support; a break lower targets 95.00, but geopolitical premium could return quickly.

Gold: Holding firm at 4,621.00 near recent highs — support at 4,515.70, resistance at 4,650.60; consolidation pattern suggests a breakout is coming, likely to the upside given macro uncertainty.

GBP/USD: Steady at 1.3588 (+0.37%), reclaimed 1.3538 — watching 1.3658 (5-day high) for a break higher; UK data this week could provide direction.

Key Events This Week

• Monday 14:00 GMT — US Factory Orders (March): Forecast +0.4% vs 0.0% prior — a beat here supports the industrial recovery narrative and could lift US30.
• Monday 16:50 GMT — Fed Williams Speech: Any commentary on rate path expectations will move USD pairs and indices — watch for dovish/hawkish signals.
• Throughout the week — ECB Speakers (Lagarde, de Guindos, Cipollone): Multiple ECB appearances could drive EUR volatility and impact European equity sentiment.
• Earnings Season Continues: Palantir, AMD, Disney, McDonald's all reporting — tech earnings are the biggest risk/opportunity for NAS100 direction this week.

The single biggest risk event is the cluster of tech earnings — any disappointment from AMD or Palantir could trigger a sharp correction in NAS100 given current valuations.

The Week Ahead — My Game Plan

I'm starting the week with a bullish bias on both US30 and NAS100, but I need to see follow-through above 49,650 and 27,450 respectively before adding exposure. The geopolitical backdrop remains unpredictable, so I'm keeping position sizes smaller than usual and using tighter stops. If we get clean breakouts above last week's highs with volume confirmation, I'll be targeting 50,000 on US30 and 28,000 on NAS100. As always, let price prove the direction first — don't anticipate, react. Protect your capital, respect your stops, and remember that being flat is a position when the setup isn't there.