WEEK 2 - TRADING UPDATE

Unfortunately a poor end to my trading week. I feel a combination of over-trading and using tight stops in otherwise correct direction trading spoiled the week after a decent start. Definitely something to think about.

It also appears that my R:R ratio for successful trades is closer to 1.5R than 1.7R

The success rate has taken a dip below 60% - but I do believe I can return that above 60% with more carefully planned trades and correct stop loss distances.




Summary - week 2 only

Trades: 10
Successful: 5
Unsuccessful: 5
Pips won/lost: 61.3
Win % : 50%
Profit/Loss: £112.05
% profit/Loss versus account balance at start of week: 9.5%

Summary - month to date

Trades: 16
Successful: 9
Unsuccessful: 7
Pips won/lost: 136
Win % : 56%
Profit/Loss: £282.65
% profit/Loss versus account balance at start of week: 28%

Personally I'd say keep doing your scans the same way you would if it was the start of the month and let the trades come to you as if it were any other day , that way you can only build confidence in your strategy/model .

All the best

Ok, question...

I have hit my numerical/monitory target for August, in the sense that I have had 10 trades (7 successful 3 failures) and just exceeded my target of £1,310.00 (£1,328.00).

My average R:R for successful trades is standing at 1.5 R (target 1.7R)
My average for losing trades is -1 R (which means I am not moving my stops to suit - sticking to stop strategy)

My question is, I have just over half a month left of potential trading, should I continue to do so and revise new targets at the end of the month, or should I stop at said target and wait until next month?

To me, stopping and waiting would be a silly choice, but I can see the logic.

There are those far more experienced than me, hence the question - what would you personally do in a similar situation, where you have given yourself set goals?

Do you revise your roadmap, or stick to it rigidly?

Ha - it's a motivational tool if anything Remo.

If (I should really say "when" on the basis of PMA!!) it gets to the level I am trading those size of lots via spreadbet, I'm sure there will be problems regarding bet sizes etc. Will have to change tact I imagine.

Eyes are firmly on end of 2014 target. If I can get to that target consistently, then it will give confidence for the following years target.

I completely agree, discipline is extremely key, and momentum. I MUST keep putting up these weekly/monthly reviews as a matter of principle.

I Loved your Target for 2019
Thats a good aim.
discipline will be the key.

17% in week 1 is impressive start gc, hope it continues and you reach your goal then I will happily hire you as my fund manager

UPDATE 1

Summary

Trades: 6
Successful: 4
Unsuccessful: 2
Win % : 67%
Profit/Loss: £170.60
% profit/Loss versus account balance at start of week: 17%

More detailed summary at end of the month versus forecasted figures.

Excel attached.

I do a scan of all the forex, and some commodity charts the night before and another look in the morning. I draw my trendlines and note where my SMA's, set my alerts (put the alerts on trendlines) and I effectively swing trade. The more correlation between oblique/horizontal trendlines the better (with an added SMA at times) although I will trade obvious ranges. I take not of RSI trendlines as well to make sure a trade is still in play and not about to breakout.

I tend not to trade breakouts. I tried previously to mixed success, but I was frustrated at the amount of times I would get stopped out because I used to tight a stop for the strategy. I also found the market was clever with false breakouts, and I didn't have the strategy to deal with it.

So in short, mostly obvious horizontal or oblique ranges as well as pivotal support/resistances is my trading set ups.

Strategy/risk is as per my previous post really. With a small account I am happy to risk 5% in one trade, but eventually this will go down to around 2/3% as the account grows.
I am aiming for a 60% success rate, with a reward to risk ratio of 1.7:1.

In my spreadsheet there is a tab called "Strategy" - on there I have laid out the next 5 months forecast and how I aim to get to 5k.

After each month, I will input actual results versus what I forecasted to track success/failure.

Hope that helps. Thanks for the good wishes.

Hi GC

Good luck with this - wishing you great success!

And how are you choosing / searching for the trades? And what strategy for entries / trade management?

Apologies for the test. Just want to make sure the attachment works.

Started trading properly this week with a 1k starting balance in the spreadbetting account only. Aim is to run this to approx. 5k by end of December based on the strategy laid out on the Strategy tab of the worksheet.

Strategy is based on a win rate of 60% and a Reward/Risk ration of at least 1.7:1
I will not risk anymore than 5% on any one trade. % risk will decrease as the account grows bigger.
Initial plan is to only have 10 trades in August, 12 in September, 15 in October, 15 in November back down to 10 in December.

After each month, I will update actual performance vs forecasted performance against each factor. I will use this as a constant tracker.

For example, as I speak. My success rate is 75% (3 from 4) however my risk to reward is less than 1:1 due to a manually closed position as I lost confidence in the trade.

All trades will be from the "Spread B" tab only. I have attached, but will update on a weekly basis rather than a daily.

My aim is to fully stick to this strategy and continue updating the log.

TEST



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/63552262/Tra...ng%20log%20-%201.xls

Opened Long trade today VOG at 1.03p which is very close to the 1.02p major long term support level.
This company is on the verge of becoming cash positive.
Last fund raising was a loan from a bank at just over 7%.
Hopefully no more SP destroying equity fund raisings?
I hope so.


PS congratulations gclark25

Hi gclark25
Congratulations mate. Plenty of sleepless nights are coming Enjoy the early Days as they grow up so fast.
Congratulations .
Remo

Will do Diver.

I'll stick a photo up as soon as we are home after the birth and settled.

WS - glad to hear you feel your trading as improved ten fold as a direct consequence of your baby.

If I am honest, my family and my newborn is exactly why I want to succeed at trading. I believe it can provide with the flexibity to spend more time with my family and travelling than a 9-5 job ever will. As well as the security to know that my risk management is in control of my future - not someone else.

For now, I fully aim on enjoying my new son and looking after my Mrs.

Well said WS: I agree 200% with everything you said!

Enjoy the new baby from day one and let's have a photo asap. And good luck to mum. Hope everything is a stress free as possible.

Birth of a child is a great distraction, embrace it and enjoy it..... Market will continue to run and will be around, it ain't going any where, however time is precious......your newborn and wife will need you without distraction.....perhaps u should see this as an opp to refresh n recharge....cash is a position too.

From a personal view point my trading has improved 10 fold, why.... because now I have children that depend on me and that has made me much more disciplined ( avoidance of rash, rushed trades or just for the sake as u put it) in the dark arts of understanding the technical markets.

Wish you and your mrs all the best....to what will be a life changing event.

Regards WS

Just a wee update.

I haven't taken a trade since the last live trade, mostly due to how busy I am with work and outside work. Also, it is entering the last week of my Partners first pregnancy, so some things, like trading, have taken a back seat, while still firmly playing in the back of my mind constantly. It's frustrating because when I have a quick look at a chart, I feel like I have lost touch with the markets. Sometimes you feel in tune with the market, you know where you are, you know where she is, you just have to figure out where she may be going from there. However, right now, I feel in tune with neither myself or the market. Therefore I would be naive to make rash, rushed trades just now. This is what I am steering away from. Trading for tradings sake. This is the idae of this "journal". Accountability. Responsibility.

Truth is, I am completely aware of the fact I want to get back on the trading saddle as soon as, but I am also aware that right now, my mind won't be completely focused on the job until my son is born and we are in some form of routine.

So for just now I will mostly just read and look at a chart every now and then because doing something is better than doing absolutely nothing.

Anyway, it may be of absolute no interest to anyone why I haven't posted any trades, and some may assume that I have been trading but just not keeping this up to date, but that is not the case unfortunately. I have just been absent.

TRADE

Due to working and home commitments I haven't traded at all the last week but I have just entered a trade just now.

EurUsd - Short - 1H chart

Entry: Short £4/pt @ 13,335.5
SL: above 13,346 (I have put it above 13,355 due to overnight stop hunting possibility - could still get caught though)
TP: 13,305 ( I have support from 13,292-13302 - I like to place above support)

Reasons for trade:

1. Double top on 4H downwards.
2. Channel in play
3. Bearish signals on Stoch and RSI

Reasons to be careful

1. Overnight trade - watch out for stop hunting.

Struggling to pull the trigger on any trades as everything seems choppy to me at the moment, so remaining patient until I see something more valid.

Stop moved to breakeven.
gclark25 wrote:

Taken half off @ 13255.5 manually (was supposed to be 4.5 pips above this, but managed to take a few more pips.

Next target will be ~13220-13330
gclark25 wrote:

Eur/Usd Trade

Short: £2 @ 13278
SL: 13303
TP1: 13260
TP2: 13220

Reasons

1. I believe this is at the top of a wave 5 on the 4H chart
2. I believe it is double topping
3. bearish diverging RSI on lower timeframes

Reasons to be cautious

1. price still above all MA's - so more aggressive trade than some like.
2. Took trade when the spread was wider - wouldn't usually, but I feel trade is valid and didn't want to miss the boat
3. Daily chart still considered bullish - (however, one could argue that there was a Doji candle on Friday)

HI Ronnie - Thanks, it seems to work fine.

Hi gclark25,

I have looked at uploading spreadsheets and this function was not allowed.
However, I have now changed the settings on the forum so you should be able to now attach a Excel spreadsheet to your post without any problems.

Hope this helps,

Ronnie

Lets see if this works:

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/63552262/Tra...%20trading%20log.xls

Saying there is an error when I upload my spreadsheet

gclark25 wrote:
Try this gclark25

sheet.zoho.com/excelviewer

Unfortunately I couldn't seem to attach an excel file - anyone able to help?

Well, that is the first week of trading completed. Unfortunately I couldn't really put too much effort/time in this week so not alot of trades.

Wasn't the best of weeks, but by no way means my worst either.

I believe it helps putting your trades out there in front of everyone, well me anyway, because as I have said in the opening post, there is a degree of accountability, so if I do anything bad or undisciplined (which I will!!) then it is in the open for all to see. The secret is sticking to it.

Anyway, here is the first log from this week. I am only using the spreadbetting tab as that is all I am doing at the moment. Managed to gain approx. 9% with just over 5 hours in the market (5 hours of trades running, not time spent, unfortunately I have probably spent less than 5 hours looking at charts this week, which quite frankly, isn't good enough).

The description of trades etc should be pretty self explanatory, however if you scroll to the right, you will see a useful summary with some good stats worth keeping an eye on too.

Anyway, if there is anyone at all reading or following, thanks.

Diver,

Not a problem.

The amount of mistakes I have made in charts will be ridonculous tbh.

Trade update:

Took a few scalp trades on the DOWN and Aud Usd today/tonight.

Successful on the DOW but usuccessful on AudUsd earlier on.

Ended up slightly up on the day. After 3 days trading, and a handful of trades (under 10 so far) I am sitting at a measly ~1660.

So far stuck to every rule apart from one trade which had a single risk of 4.8%

I will post up log at end of the week.

(If anyone is interested obviously)

www.dropbox.com/s/zskjrii1s7oiib1/AUD_USDJuly25.png

I have just spotted an error in my chart posted yesterday for which I sincerely apologise. I was showing the projected (( b )) wave as ending 9228 - 9206, which was derived from a 50%-61.8% retrace of the move up from 0.9137 ( b ), when it should have been those percentages but from the entire (( a )) move up from 0.8998, which then targets 0.9158-0.9121.

It's going like a rocket now and heading for an amended projection of 0.9450.

Sorry

www.dropbox.com/s/zskjrii1s7oiib1/AUD_USDJuly25.png

I have just spotted an error in my chart posted yesterday for which I sincerely apologise. I was showing the projected (( b )) wave as ending 9228 - 9206, which was derived from a 50%-61.8% retrace of the move up from 0.9137 ( b ), when it should have been those percentages but from the entire (( a )) move up from 0.8998, which then targets 0.9158-0.9121.

It's going like a rocket now and heading for an amended projection of 0.9450.

Sorry

Initial trade was stopped out, but I think that was down to an error in my stop placement (it did what I though it could. I re-entered higher up because I felt the trade was still valid. It has now reached said target, and could maybe go a little further, however I exited on my limit stop.

TRADE - AudUsd - short term trade

15M/5M timeframe 1H confirmation








Another channel trade with overhead horizontal resistance for a quickish scalp.

Note the RSI divergence on the 5M chart also.

It may spike up before a possible break back downwards (I have noticed this alot) but I believe it will not go over 9195 (my stop)

Entry: 9183.3
SL: 9195
Target 1: 9165 (50 & 100SMA meet on the 15M chart)
Target 2 (may not stay in long enough for this target): Oblique channel support

Had to leave work in a rush earlier and couldn't keep an eye on gold so brought the SL down closer to the higher high and also moved the target closer to 1318 which is S2 on the pivot indicator.

Here are my trades so far (as described in here anyway, but just for continuity):

Very quick screenshots with no explanation - green area on 4H is 1st target area - red area on Daily is overhead resistance area.






There is also a 1,2,3 low in action on the 1H confirming at least an intermediate top - hopefully a reversal.
gclark25 wrote:

Short gold.

Details/screenshots to follow later - eyes over my shoulders at the moment so can't post for too long.

Same trade as mentioned previously - slightly different values.

SL: 1351
TP1: 1301-1314 (potential manual trade depending on price action)
TP2: May be potential for a greedy trade. again depending on price action

Trade triggered.

2 of the 3 weights taken out within 3 minutes.

Clean break of trendline will force me to re-analyze this - we could possible see either a reversal or correction waves from here.

UPDATE:

Looking to go long on this now at a short term retracement back down closer to support.

Reasons for trade:

1.Still obeying current channel
2.Support through 1H 50sma and oblique channel (as well as 78.6\5 fib retracement from most recent low-high)
3.Current uptrend on the 1H
4.Good risk to reward

An overview of what I see on the 1H chart -




Entry Price - 3 x £1 orders @ 9244

SL: 9288

TP1: 9285
TP2: 9315
TP3: 9340+ (greedy trade)

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/AUD_USD.png

It's very interesting how we can look at the same instrument from different view points and come to similar conclusions.
A note for anyone looking at the above chart. This software doesn't have fib extensions so the figures plotted up from ( b ) are copies of the retracement to ( a ) and are therefore upside down. So, for 38.20% read 61.80%. My apologies to anyone now totally confused.
My analysis is always fib based so will be looking for the retracement to an area between 0.9228 and 0.9206. There is some support at 0.9223 so that would probably be favourite.
Personally I would not be getting into this trade as the target is doubtful and I do not have the time to sit and stare at the PC. For me the entry was at 0.9137,( b ) for a long, or will be, at the retrace of the current move - b?. If this retraces to my target area stated above then I would consider this to be wave b of ( c ), with the wave a to have completed at 0.9319. Wave c of ( c ) should then reach at least 0.9432.
Many thanks for posting gclark25

Going to bed, considered placing an order in for between 3290-3295 - but decided against it and I will have a look again tomorrow morning.

Mid term bullish (Sharp retracement back to a significant Fib area on the daily imo) and still have concerns over the gap between the PA and the overhead channel resistance anyway, so no big deal if I miss out on this trade anyway.
gclark25 wrote:

No trades so far today. To tell you truth, I hardly got to see a chart.

Anyway, been sitting here for about an hour looking through a couple of charts - about to make my 2nd live trade.

AUD/USD

Short term trade - against the trend.

Reasons for trade:

1. Short term double top
2. Beaerish signals on RSI & stochastic
3. Channel in play

Reasons to be cautious:

1. Price hasn't touch upper resistance trendline

SL: stops above 9305
TP1: 9255
TP2: 9245

or the 15M 200sma (whichever comes first imo)

Overview of targets and interesting area's on the 1H chart




Showing some short term bearish signs also. I have highlighted potential resistance and support zones through the coloured boxes. Although you should also note that price hasn't test the above oblique channel resistance. However, it is showing enough valid signs elsewhere for my risk tolerance.

I am waiting on a final signal on the 15M chart, as so:



I would like to see the previously spoken about "magic" 3rd diverging touch on the RSI trendline before placing a trade.

It is possible that it won't retest recent highs to present an opportunity for a 3rd touch on the RSI trendline, and in that scenario, I am happy to sit out and go long in and around support area's highlighted on the chart.

Disclaimer - this would be a relatively quick in an out trade, and I would look to get my stop to break even as soon as possible because it is agains the longer term trend.

Just got in to find DOW trade closed at predefined prices.

2nd lot closed at 15551 and the final lot at 15543.

Haven't looked at the chart yet to analyze tbh.

Elected against GOLD trade simply because it would break my rules unless I went with a tighter stop. You have to go with a minimum of £5/pt which would leave me a stop of 9/10 pip stop loss, one I would personally be uncomfortable with until I get to know Golds movement better.

Still think it is an entirely valid trade though! Especially at the 38.2% fib retracement.

free trade now


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gold22ndjuly1.png

gold
im looking to short at 1338.with a 10 point stop. This area was previous support so should be resistance. this is a first attempt trade only.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/gold22ndjuly.png

Stop moved to break even.

Don't usually move it so quick, but I think if high is broken, then my trade is invalid.

LIVE TRADE

Short term

Short DOW £3/pip @ 15572.6
SL: 15587.6 (15 pips)
TP-1: 15561
TP-2: 15551
TP-3: still to be determined

Reasons for trade:

Short term trade based on 15/5/1M charts

Oblique short term downtrend resistance area
RSI divergence on 1m chart
Horizontal resistance






Edit: first target hit and taken.

This is partly the problem wuth live trading, but bear with me, I may perhaps get faster and clearer with my buys and sells as time goes.

First "potential" trade.

Gold - short @ 1335 - depending on price action in and around this area

SL: 1360
Targets: 1st weight - 1300
Greedy weight: 1210-1250 (PA dependent)

Reasons for trade:

38.2% fib on weekly/daily charts (previous PA in this area)
Daily downtrend resistance approach
4H uptrend resistance approach
50sma area on the Daily

Reasons to be cautious:

Weekly chart potentially bullish (Macd (thanks RedChilly) and arguable break of downtrend resistance, also big gap between PA and 20ema which will eventually close, sooner rather than later. Also have reservations on whether or not PA will try to test 100sma on Daily. Although I believe it will do this after an initial retracement from this area.

Because of the above reasons, I will be very cautious with this trade and it will be fairly short term, hence the tighter stop. I believe it will retrace at this level, and the risk to reward is good, however I do not have complete confidence in the greedy trade target.

here are the weekly, daily and 4H view of my trade.

I hear ya!

"Another thing I wanted to work on was widening my stop loss, I think I can strangle trades far too often through fear."
Widening stops would also mean you have to lower your trades. so instead of £2 a point you have to go to £1 a point..
The other problem with widening the stops means that your initial entry would have been wrong as such.When you enter at the right level your stops should not get hit as such....ie your entering at support. so widening the stops carry more risk and can get you more emotionally attached. So i would say its best to learn the personality of a share or index to get an idea of the stops.
for example...i use 40 point stops on index trades(dow) as for me this is about right . currency i use 50 points due to crazy moves. share trading depending on price usually around 5- 10 pips.Again this is down to the price.ie..if its a £50 share then you may have to have a stop of over 100-200 pips ,so dependent on the personality of the share.