BP is pressing multi-year highs after a near-80% rally off the May 2025 low at 337.6. Price traded to 609.4 on 2026-03-31 before pulling back into the 570s, where it sits just above the 20 EMA. The line that decides the next move is 545.3: hold it and the uptrend stays clean; lose it and the EMA-200 / 0.5 fib confluence at 472 comes into play.
Daily Chart
BP.L daily chart, 24 April 2026 — 21/50/200 EMA, RSI(14) with signal MA, MACD(12,26,9), and VRVP volume profile. Point of control sits at 473.80, one pip above the 200 EMA at 472.77.
Trend and Structure
The multi-month trend is clearly up. EMAs stack 565.2 / 537.7 / 471.8 in textbook order, price is above all three, and the rally off the May 2025 low at 337.6 printed a series of higher highs and higher lows into the March 2026 print at 609.4. The most recent pullback from 609.4 to the 531 swing low on 23 March held above the rising 20 EMA and the previous swing high at 583.6, which is the kind of pullback that keeps an uptrend structurally intact rather than breaking it. Trendline support drawn from the August 2025 low through the February and April lows currently sits near the 50 EMA at 537.7 — the first line of defence on any deeper retrace.
Key Levels
The level stack below shows the prices that matter now, in descending order.
| Type | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Fib 1.414 ext | 721.9 | Extension target |
| Fib 1.272 ext | 683.3 | Extension target |
| Resistance | 609.4 | 12-month high, March 2026 print |
| Resistance | 583.6 | Prior swing high, March 2026 |
| Current | 572.7 | Last close |
| Fib 0.236 | 545.3 | Retracement level |
| Fib 0.382 | 505.6 | Retracement level |
| Support | 467.2 | Swing support zone |
| Support | 458.0 | Prior basing area |
| Support | 444.5 | Swing low cluster |
| Volume POC | 421.9 | Heaviest traded price, 252d window |
0.00 at 2025-05-01 low 337.6 → 1.00 at 2026-03-31 high 609.4
Momentum and Volume
RSI at 53.9 is neutral — neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room to run in either direction. MACD line above zero at 8.02, histogram rolled negative to -4.31 and contracting — the momentum tailwind from the March highs has faded, though the trend has not inverted. ATR is 19.96, so realistic daily range on any break would put a move to 545.3 or 583.6 inside one or two sessions. Volume has contracted 32% on a 20-day basis versus the prior 20 days, which fits a typical consolidation at highs rather than distribution. Volume profile places the point of control well below at 421.9 — a reminder that the bulk of the last 12 months' trading happened in the low-400s, which is a long way back if the tape gives up.
Bull Case
A daily close above 583.6 reopens the March high at 609.4 as the immediate target, and a break above 609.4 sets up the 1.272 fibonacci extension at 683.3 as the first projection target, with 721.9 and 777.3 beyond it. The setup wants the 20 EMA at 565.2 and fib 0.236 at 545.3 to hold on any pullback — that is the trigger to add, not the trigger to doubt.
Bear Case
Losing 545.3 opens the door to the 0.382 retracement at 505.6 first, but below 505 the real line in the sand is 472 — the 0.5 fib retracement at 473.5 and the 200-day EMA at 471.8 sit less than 2p apart and would be tested together. A rejection there keeps the multi-year uptrend technically intact; a daily close below puts the whole move from the May 2025 low at 337.6 in question, with the 0.618 retracement at 441.5 as the next objective.
Trade Scenarios
| Direction | Trigger | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long | 583.6 | 545.3 | 609.4 |
| Short | 545.3 | 583.6 | 471.8 |
Risk warning: Technical analysis reflects probability, not certainty. Levels are reference points, not signals. Capital at risk. This is educational content, not investment advice.