Tesla closed Thursday at 362.44, its fourth straight lower close, dropping back under the 21 and 50-day EMAs and onto the rising trendline from the July low. The 200 EMA at 377.51 is still the line the bulls have to clear. Below, 353.73 is where the July–October recovery starts to look in trouble.
Daily Chart
TSLA daily chart, 15 October 2026 close — 21/50/200 EMA, RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), with the rising trendline from the 29 July low. Thursday's low at 355.23 tested that trendline while the close slipped below both the 21 and 50 EMAs.
Trend and Structure
The July earnings gap took Tesla from 374 to the low 300s, and the 29 July low at 297.38 has been the floor ever since. From there price has built higher lows — 342.53 in late August, 345.88 on 30 September and 355.23 on Thursday — but every push into the 384–389 zone has failed: 384.04 on 3 September, 386.83 on 25 September and 388.56 on 9 October. That leaves a 345–389 range with the 200 EMA at 377.51 running through the middle of it. Price spent early October either side of the 200 EMA and could not hold above it; the 21 EMA (369.24) is still above the 50 (365.79), so the short-term structure has not broken, but price is now below both.
Key Levels
The level that matters most is the 353–355 band, where the 38.2% retracement of the July–October rally (353.73) meets Thursday's low and the rising trendline. Overhead, the 200 EMA at 377.51 is the gate to the top of the range.
| Type | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 413.16 | 10 July high, the last peak before the earnings gap |
| Resistance | 388.56 | 9 October high; top of the 345–389 range (also 386.83 and 384.04) |
| EMA 200 | 377.51 | Long-term trend line; price could not hold above it in October |
| EMA 21 | 369.24 | First overhead level after Thursday's close |
| EMA 50 | 365.79 | Lost on Thursday; needs reclaiming to steady the short-term picture |
| Current | 362.44 | Last close |
| Support | 355.23 | Thursday's low, on the rising trendline from the 29 July low |
| Fib 38.2% | 353.73 | First retracement of the 297.38–388.56 rally |
| Support | 345.88 | 30 September swing low, bottom of the range |
| Fib 50% | 342.97 | Half-way back; lines up with the 342.53 August low |
| Fib 61.8% | 332.21 | Deeper retracement if the range floor gives way |
Fibonacci levels are drawn from the 29 July low at 297.38 to the 9 October high at 388.56.
Momentum and Volume
RSI(14) is at 46.45 — just under 50, so momentum has cooled but is nowhere near oversold. MACD is at 2.93 against a signal line of 4.03, giving a histogram of -1.10: a bearish crossover, but one happening above the zero line, which points to a pause inside the recovery rather than a new downtrend so far. Volume backs that reading. The last four down days averaged about 24 million shares, roughly 29% below the 20-day average of about 34 million, so this has been a light-volume drift lower rather than heavy selling.
Bull Case
Buyers defend the 353–355 trendline and fib band, and price gets back above the 21 EMA at 369.24. A daily close above the 200 EMA at 377.51 would put the range top at 388.56 back in play, and a break of that ceiling opens the 10 July high at 413.16, the level the stock was trading at before the earnings gap.
Bear Case
A daily close below 353.73 breaks both the trendline and the first retracement level, and opens the 30 September low at 345.88 and the 50% level at 342.97. Losing that zone would undo half of the July–October recovery and bring the 61.8% retracement at 332.21 into view, turning the range into a series of lower highs.
Trade Scenarios
| Direction | Trigger | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long | Daily close above 377.51 | 361.00 | 388.56, then 413.16 |
| Short | Daily close below 353.73 | 370.00 | 342.97, then 332.21 |
Risk warning: Technical analysis reflects probability, not certainty. Levels are reference points, not signals. Capital at risk. This is educational content, not investment advice.