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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — Company Research

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — Company Research

Last Updated: 10 May 2026

NVIDIA Corporation is the dominant supplier of GPUs and full-stack data-centre AI infrastructure, generating $215,938m of revenue in fiscal 2026 (year ended 25 January 2026), $153,463m of gross profit (a 71.07% gross margin per JSON), $130,387m of operating income (60.38% margin per JSON) and $120,067m of net income on $96,676m of free cash flow. The shares closed the most recent session at $215.20, printing a fresh 52-week high of $217.80 intraday — well above the 52-week low of $120.28 — putting market capitalisation at approximately $5.23 trillion against an enterprise value of approximately $5.18 trillion. The narrow ~$52bn gap between market cap and enterprise value reflects $10,605m of cash and equivalents on the balance sheet against $11,040m of total debt (JSON), with a further $51,951m of marketable securities disclosed in the 10-K (Per the FY2026 10-K, Item 7, filed 2026-02-25). The company carries a 0.02% indicated dividend yield (JSON), executed $40.1bn of stock buybacks in FY2026 (JSON), and the most-discussed item in the file this week is a Simply Wall St / Yahoo Finance write-up of the stock's 80.2% one-year return to a US$211.50 close (recent_news 9 May 2026).

tradingview-advanced-chart {{TV_SYMBOL}} = NASDAQ:NVDA {{TICKER}} = NVDA


1. Company Snapshot

| Field | Value | |---|---| | Company | NVIDIA Corporation | | Ticker | NVDA (NMS / Nasdaq Global Select) | | Sector / Industry | Technology / Semiconductors | | Country | United States | | Headquarters | 2788 San Tomas Expressway, Santa Clara, California | | Website | https://www.nvidia.com | | CEO | Mr. Jen-Hsun Huang (co-founder, since 1993) | | Employees | 42,000 | | Market capitalisation | ~$5.230 trillion | | Enterprise value | ~$5.178 trillion | | Shares outstanding | 24,300,000,000 | | Float | 23,321,682,000 | | Latest annual revenue (FY2026, ended 25 Jan 2026) | $215,938m | | Latest annual net income (FY2026) | $120,067m | | Cash & equivalents (25 Jan 2026) | $10,605m | | CIK | 0001045810 |

Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25): "NVIDIA pioneered accelerated computing to help solve the most challenging computational problems. NVIDIA is now a data center scale AI infrastructure company reshaping all industries." NVIDIA was incorporated in California in April 1993 and reincorporated in Delaware in April 1998. The company reports in two segments — Compute & Networking, and Graphics — and addresses four end markets: Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization and Automotive. As of fiscal year-end 2026 the company had approximately 42,000 employees in 38 countries, of whom 31,000 were engaged in research and development.

tradingview-symbol-info {{TV_SYMBOL}} = NASDAQ:NVDA {{TICKER}} = NVDA


2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull case

  • Cash machine still scaling: $102,718m of operating cash flow and $96,676m of free cash flow in FY2026 (JSON), against $40,086m of stock buybacks and $974m of dividends in the same year (JSON). FCF yield per JSON is 1.85% on a market cap above $5.2 trillion.
  • Data Center is the engine: Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), Data Center revenue was up 68% year-on-year, with Data Center compute up 59% on Blackwell demand and Data Center networking up 142% on the ramp of NVLink compute fabric for GB200/GB300 systems and growth of Ethernet and InfiniBand platforms. The Compute & Networking segment generated $193,479m of revenue (+67% y/y) and $130,141m of operating income (+57%) in FY2026.
  • Platform breadth and ecosystem lock-in: Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25), NVIDIA powers "over 78% of the supercomputers on the global TOP500 list, including 9 of the top 10 systems on the Green500 list," and "there are over 7.5 million developers worldwide using CUDA and our other software tools." Cumulative R&D since inception is "over $76.7 billion."
  • Product cadence is accelerating: Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25), the Blackwell Ultra (GB300) platform was launched and scaled in FY2026, the next-generation Rubin platform "is expected to commence production shipments in the second half of fiscal year 2027" with "up to a 10x reduction in cost per token compared to Blackwell," and NVLink Fusion was introduced to "enable hyperscalers and custom ASIC designers to integrate custom CPUs and XPUs with our platform."
  • Liquidity is deep and capital return is at unprecedented scale: Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), NVIDIA held $62.6 billion in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at 25 January 2026, repurchased 282 million shares for $40.4 billion in FY2026, had $58.5 billion remaining under buyback authorisation, and increased the commercial paper program to $25.0 billion with none outstanding at year-end. The JSON-sourced FY2026 buyback figure is $40,086m and is used as the primary capital-return number throughout this report.
  • Other-end markets all grew sharply: Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), Gaming revenue was up 41% on Blackwell demand, Professional Visualization revenue was up 70% (DGX Spark launch and Blackwell pull-through), and Automotive revenue was up 39% on continued adoption of self-driving platforms.

Bear case

  • Customer concentration is extreme and rising: Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), in FY2026 "sales to one direct customer represented 22% of total revenue and sales to another direct customer represented 14% of total revenue," up from FY2025 when one direct customer represented 12% and two each represented 11%. The two largest direct customers therefore accounted for ~36% of total revenue in FY2026 (combining the disclosed 22% and 14% shares).
  • China is now effectively closed and the H20 write-down stings: Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25), "we incurred a $4.5 billion charge in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 associated with H20 for excess inventory and purchase obligations, as the demand for H20 products diminished," and "as of the end of fiscal year 2026, we were effectively foreclosed from competing in China's data center computing/compute market." The August 2025 H20 license generated only "approximately $60 million in H20 revenue."
  • Gross margin is compressing on the model transition: Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), gross margin fell to 71.1% in FY2026 from 75.0% in FY2025 — a 3.9-point step-down — "as our business model transitioned from offering Hopper HGX systems to Blackwell full-scale datacenter solutions" and from the H20 charge. Net effect on gross margin from inventory provisions was an unfavourable 2.6% in FY2026 versus 2.3% in FY2025.
  • Capex and ecosystem investment are stepping up materially: Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), FY2026 capex was $6.1 billion versus $3.4 billion in FY2025, NVIDIA "invested $17.5 billion in private companies and infrastructure funds" in FY2026, and "provided $3.5 billion in land, power, and shell guarantees to early-stage companies." Management said the company "expects to increase capital expenditures in fiscal year 2027 relative to fiscal year 2026."
  • Supply chain is concentrated in Asia and singular for advanced packaging: Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25), NVIDIA uses TSMC and Samsung for wafer fabrication; SK Hynix, Micron and Samsung for memory; Hon Hai, Wistron and Fabrinet for assembly, testing and packaging; and "we utilize CoWoS technology for semiconductor packaging." The MD&A repeats that "our supply chain is mainly concentrated in Asia."
  • Competitor signal: an aggressively-priced AMD has run hard. The 9 May 2026 Motley Fool item (url) headlines "AMD Stock Is Up 320% Over the Past Year. Should Investors Shift Their Attention Away From Nvidia?" Cloud-internal silicon (Alphabet TPU, Amazon Trainium, Microsoft Maia, Huawei Ascend) is also explicitly listed in Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25), alongside AMD, Huawei and Intel.
  • Open-source models could weaken proprietary moat: Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), "the recent rise in high-quality open-source foundation models is making advanced AI capabilities broadly accessible. Open-source AI is dependent on developer adoption and if deployed on our competitors' platforms, it could reduce demand for our products and services."

3. What Does This Company Actually Do?

In plain English, NVIDIA designs and sells data-centre-scale AI infrastructure (GPUs, CPUs, DPUs, NVLink interconnects, InfiniBand and Ethernet networking, software, services), GPUs for gaming and PCs, GPUs for professional design and visualization, and a hardware/software platform for autonomous and electric vehicles. The reportable-segment split for FY2026 is heavily skewed to data centre.

Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), the FY2026 revenue mix by reportable segment was:

  • Compute & Networking — $193,479m, ~89.6% of total revenue (+67% y/y). This segment includes Data Center accelerated computing and networking platforms and AI solutions and software, plus Automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions including software. Within it, Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), Data Center compute revenue grew 59% on Blackwell demand and Data Center networking grew 142% on NVLink, Ethernet and InfiniBand ramps.
  • Graphics — $22,459m, ~10.4% of total revenue (+57% y/y). This segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, and Quadro / NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics.
  • Total FY2026 revenue$215,938m (89.6% + 10.4% = 100.0%, computed from segment dollar figures above).

svg-revenue-mix-donut Reportable segment mix (FY2026 revenue per FY2026 10-K Item 7): - Compute & Networking: 89.6% - Graphics: 10.4% Total: 100%

Within the Compute & Networking segment, Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), the company also reports four end-market growth rates rather than absolute dollar splits at the market level: Data Center revenue +68% y/y, Gaming revenue +41%, Professional Visualization revenue +70%, and Automotive revenue +39%. Absolute end-market dollar figures are not separately disclosed in this filing's MD&A — segment-level Compute & Networking and Graphics figures are the reported splits and are used in this report's donut.

Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "Revenue from sales to customers headquartered outside of the United States accounted for 31% and 41% of total revenue for fiscal years 2026 and 2025, respectively." That means ~69% of FY2026 reported revenue was attributable to U.S.-headquartered direct customers, up from ~59% a year earlier — a function of the China foreclosure and the concentration of cloud and hyperscale buyers in the U.S.

Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "For fiscal year 2026, sales to one direct customer represented 22% of total revenue and sales to another direct customer represented 14% of total revenue, all of which were primarily attributable to the Compute & Networking segment." The names of those direct customers are not disclosed in this filing.


4. The Business Model

NVIDIA is a fabless designer of GPUs, CPUs, DPUs, switches and networking adapters that are integrated with NVIDIA-designed software (CUDA, CUDA-X, NVIDIA AI Enterprise, NIM, NeMo, AI Blueprints, Omniverse, DRIVE OS, Cosmos, Nemotron) and sold either as discrete components, as rack-scale systems, or as full data-centre-scale AI infrastructure. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25): "We utilize a fabless and contracting manufacturing strategy, whereby we employ and partner with key suppliers for all phases of the manufacturing process, including wafer fabrication, assembly, testing, and packaging."

Margins. Headline gross margin was 71.07% in FY2026 (JSON), operating margin 60.38%, net margin 55.6%, ROE 76.33%, ROA 58.06%, and FCF yield 1.85% (all JSON). Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), "gross margins decreased to 71.1% in fiscal year 2026 from 75.0% in fiscal year 2025 as our business model transitioned from offering Hopper HGX systems to Blackwell full-scale datacenter solutions and a $4.5 billion charge associated with H20 excess inventory and purchase obligations in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026." The trajectory of gross margin therefore hinges on the maturity of the Blackwell rack-scale product yield curve and on whether further China-related write-downs are required.

Operating cost stack. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), FY2026 operating expenses were R&D $18,497m (8.6% of revenue, +43% y/y) and Sales, General and Administrative $4,579m (2.1% of revenue, +31% y/y), for total operating expenses of $23,076m (10.7% of revenue). R&D growth was "driven by a 29% increase in compensation and benefits expense, including stock-based compensation, reflecting employee growth and compensation increases and a 79% increase in compute and infrastructure." The 79% jump in compute-and-infrastructure spend on R&D is itself a window into the scale of NVIDIA's internal AI training and validation footprint.

Tax. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "Income tax expense was $21.4 billion and $11.1 billion for fiscal years 2026 and 2025, respectively. Income tax as a percentage of income before income tax was an expense of 15.1% and 13.3% for fiscal years 2026 and 2025, respectively." The 15.1% effective rate for FY2026 is below the 21.0% U.S. federal statutory rate "primarily due to tax benefits from FDDEI, stock-based compensation, income earned in jurisdictions that are subject to taxes at rates lower than the U.S. federal statutory tax rate, and the U.S. federal research tax credit." The One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBBA") was enacted in July 2025; its currently effective provisions are reflected in FY2026 results, with management continuing to evaluate guidance and interpretation.

Capital-return engine. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "On August 26, 2025, our Board of Directors approved an additional $60.0 billion in share repurchase authorization, without expiration. In fiscal year 2026, we repurchased 282 million shares of our common stock for $40.4 billion. As of January 25, 2026, we were authorized, subject to certain specifications, to repurchase up to $58.5 billion of our common stock." From 26 January 2026 through 20 February 2026 a further 8 million shares were repurchased for $1.5 billion under a pre-established trading plan. Cash dividends paid in FY2026 were $974 million per JSON (matching the 10-K's $974 million figure). The JSON-sourced $40,086m FY2026 buyback figure is the primary capital-return number used throughout this report; the 10-K's "$40.4 billion" figure is rounded MD&A commentary and is consistent at the rounding level.

Subsidy / regulatory-credit dependency. None disclosed in a manner comparable to an EV manufacturer or regulated utility. Tax credits referenced in the effective-tax-rate reconciliation (FDDEI and the U.S. federal research tax credit) reduce the effective rate but are not a separately identified revenue source. Conversely, regulatory exposure runs the other way: U.S. export controls have removed China data-centre revenue (foreclosed at fiscal year-end 2026 per the 10-K), and any H200 shipments under the February 2026 license are subject to a 25% U.S.-side tariff on importation prior to re-export — per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25): "any H200 shipped under the new licensing program will be subject to a 25% tariff upon importation into the United States."

Moat. Three layers, drawn directly from the 10-K and observable financials:

  1. CUDA software ecosystem. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25): "There are over 7.5 million developers worldwide using CUDA and our other software tools." More than half of NVIDIA's engineers work on software.
  2. Data-centre-scale co-design. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25), "introduced with the Blackwell architecture, our data-center-scale offerings feature extreme co-design where the infrastructure's chips, networking, systems, software, and algorithms are holistically architected and optimized to maximize performance and scale." NVLink Fusion (launched FY2026) extends this co-design model to third-party CPUs and ASICs, defending against the cloud-internal silicon trend.
  3. Networking integration via Mellanox. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25): "Our acquisition of Mellanox in 2020 expanded our offerings to include networking, enabled our platforms to be data center scale, and led to the introduction of a new processor class — the data processing unit, or DPU." Networking revenue grew 142% in FY2026 (per the same source) — the fastest-growing line in the company by percentage.

5. Financial Health

Five-year P&L summary (USD millions, all figures from JSON financials_annual unless flagged):

| Fiscal year ended | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income | EPS diluted | FCF | Stock buybacks | Dividends paid | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 25 Jan 2026 (FY2026) | 215,938 | 153,463 | 130,387 | 120,067 | $4.90 | 96,676 | (40,086) | (974) | | 26 Jan 2025 (FY2025) | 130,497 | 97,858 | 81,453 | 72,880 | $2.94 | 60,853 | (33,706) | (834) | | 28 Jan 2024 (FY2024) | 60,922 | 44,301 | 32,972 | 29,760 | $1.19 | 27,021 | (9,533) | (395) | | 29 Jan 2023 (FY2023) | 26,974 | 15,356 | 5,577 | 4,368 | $0.174 | 3,808 | (10,039) | (398) | | 30 Jan 2022 (FY2022) | not disclosed in this report's source data | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |

JSON-disclosed year-on-year revenue growth was +65.47% (FY2026), +114.2% (FY2025) and +125.85% (FY2024); EPS-diluted growth was +66.67% (FY2026), +147.06% (FY2025) and +583.91% (FY2024). The four-year revenue progression is approximately 8x (from $26.97bn in FY2023 to $215.94bn in FY2026 per JSON).

Balance sheet (JSON, fiscal year ends):

| Field | FY2026 | FY2025 | FY2024 | |---|---|---|---| | Cash & equivalents | 10,605 | 8,589 | 7,280 | | Total assets | 206,803 | 111,601 | 65,728 | | Total liabilities | 49,510 | 32,274 | 22,750 | | Total debt | 11,040 | 9,982 | 11,056 | | Long-term debt | 7,469 | 8,463 | 8,459 | | Total equity | 157,293 | 79,327 | 42,978 | | Current ratio | 3.91 | 4.44 | 4.17 | | Debt/equity | 0.0702 | 0.1259 | 0.2572 |

JSON also reports $51,951m of marketable securities at FY2026 year-end — equivalent to the 10-K's MD&A line — for total cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $62.6 billion (Per the FY2026 10-K, Item 7, filed 2026-02-25).

Quarterly revenue and gross margin (JSON financials_quarterly, with gross margin computed as gross_profit / revenue):

| Fiscal quarter ended | Revenue (USD m) | Gross profit (USD m) | Gross margin | Operating income | Net income | EPS diluted | FCF | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 31 Jan 2026 (Q4 FY26) | 68,127 | 51,093 | 75.0% | 44,299 | 42,960 | $1.76 | 34,904 | | 31 Oct 2025 (Q3 FY26) | 57,006 | 41,849 | 73.4% | 36,010 | 31,910 | $1.30 | 22,115 | | 31 Jul 2025 (Q2 FY26) | 46,743 | 33,853 | 72.4% | 28,440 | 26,422 | $1.08 | 13,470 | | 30 Apr 2025 (Q1 FY26) | 44,062 | 26,668 | 60.5% | 21,638 | 18,775 | $0.76 | 26,187 | | 31 Jan 2025 (Q4 FY25) | 39,331 | 28,723 | 73.0% | 24,034 | 22,091 | $0.89 | 15,552 |

svg-revenue-gross-margin Quarterly revenue ($ bn) and gross margin (%): Q4 FY25 — 39.3 — 73.0% Q1 FY26 — 44.1 — 60.5% (H20 $4.5bn charge per FY2026 10-K Item 7) Q2 FY26 — 46.7 — 72.4% Q3 FY26 — 57.0 — 73.4% Q4 FY26 — 68.1 — 75.0%

The Q1 FY2026 gross-margin trough (60.5%) is the H20 quarter — Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), "we incurred a $4.5 billion charge in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 associated with H20 for excess inventory and purchase obligations, as the demand for H20 products diminished." Sequential gross-margin recovery to 75.0% in Q4 FY2026 brings the consolidated full-year figure to 71.1% per the 10-K and 71.07% per JSON.

Cash flow. Operating cash flow was $102,718m in FY2026 (JSON) versus $64,089m in FY2025; capex was $6,042m in FY2026 versus $3,236m in FY2025 (JSON). Free cash flow was $96,676m in FY2026 versus $60,853m in FY2025 (JSON). Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "We expect to increase capital expenditures in fiscal year 2027 relative to fiscal year 2026 to support the future growth of our business."

Debt structure. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), the principal-only maturity ladder at 25 January 2026 was: $1,000m due in one year, $2,750m in one-to-five years, $1,250m in five-to-ten years, and $3,500m due in greater than ten years, totalling a $8,468m net carrying amount after the $32m unamortised debt discount and issuance costs. JSON's total_debt figure of $11,040m is the headline metric used in this report and exceeds the 10-K's principal-only $8,468m because the JSON figure incorporates other interest-bearing items (e.g. finance lease obligations / commercial paper capacity classifications). Where this report quotes a debt figure as primary, it uses JSON's $11,040m. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "In January 2026, we increased the amount of our commercial paper program, pursuant to which we may issue unsecured commercial paper notes from time to time or all at once up to $25.0 billion. As of January 25, 2026, no commercial paper was outstanding."

Tax dispute. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "Unrecognized tax benefits of $4.0 billion, which includes related interest and penalties of $374 million, were recorded in non-current income tax payable at the end of fiscal year 2026... We are currently under examination by the Internal Revenue Service for our fiscal years 2023 and 2024." A $711 million state-level deferred-tax-asset valuation allowance was released in FY2026 (per the same source).


6. Valuation & Market Data

| Field | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | Last close (10 May 2026 data file) | $215.20 | JSON | | Previous close | $211.497 | JSON | | 52-week high | $217.80 (10 May 2026 day high) | JSON | | 52-week low | $120.28 | JSON | | Day open / high / low | $213.03 / $217.80 / $212.89 | JSON | | Volume | 134,128,204 | JSON | | 10-day average volume | 157,659,220 | JSON | | Market capitalisation | $5,230,436,024,320 (~$5.23 trillion) | JSON | | Enterprise value | $5,178,215,890,944 (~$5.18 trillion) | JSON | | Shares outstanding | 24,300,000,000 | JSON | | Float shares | 23,321,682,000 | JSON | | Beta | 2.244 | JSON | | Indicated dividend yield | 0.02% (fractional yield) | JSON | | P/E trailing (calc: price / latest diluted EPS) | 43.92 | JSON ratios | | P/E trailing (yfinance) | 43.83 | JSON price block | | P/E forward (yfinance) | 19.07 | JSON price block | | P/B | 33.25 | JSON ratios | | P/S trailing | 24.22 | JSON ratios | | EV / Revenue | 23.98 | JSON ratios | | EV / EBITDA proxy (uses operating income; D&A unavailable) | 39.71 | JSON ratios | | FCF yield (latest_fcf / market_cap) | 1.85% | JSON ratios | | Gross margin (latest FY) | 71.07% | JSON ratios | | Operating margin (latest FY) | 60.38% | JSON ratios | | Net margin (latest FY) | 55.60% | JSON ratios | | Return on equity | 76.33% | JSON ratios | | Return on assets | 58.06% | JSON ratios | | Debt-to-equity | 0.0702 | JSON ratios | | Current ratio | 3.91 | JSON ratios |

Price data is as of the 10 May 2026 data snapshot; fundamental ratios are calculated from the FY2026 (year ended 25 Jan 2026) annual financials in JSON. The EV/EBITDA "proxy" is flagged in the JSON's _calc_notes because depreciation and amortisation are not separately broken out in the source data; the conservative proxy uses operating income and is therefore higher than a true EV/EBITDA would be. Short-interest, days-to-cover and put/call ratio are not disclosed in this report's source data.


7. What Are They Building / What's Coming?

Drawing only on company filings and public statements:

Silicon and platform roadmap. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25): "In fiscal year 2026, we launched and scaled the NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra platform, optimized for agentic, reasoning, and physical AI. Building on the architectural breakthroughs of Blackwell and leveraging Dynamo inference software, it delivers a significant increase in token throughput and reduction in cost per token compared to the Hopper generation." The next platform — Rubin — "is expected to commence production shipments in the second half of fiscal year 2027... built for agentic AI and reasoning, it excels at processing multi-step problem-solving and massive long-context workflows, delivering up to a 10x reduction in cost per token compared to Blackwell." Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "We began shipping production units of our new Blackwell Ultra platforms including GB300 in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026."

NVLink Fusion and custom silicon integration. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25): "In fiscal year 2026, we introduced NVIDIA NVLink Fusion to enable hyperscalers and custom ASIC designers to integrate custom CPUs and XPUs with our platform." This is NVIDIA's explicit play to remain the substrate even as hyperscalers increasingly design their own accelerators.

Open AI model platforms. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25): "We have accelerated the release cadence of our open AI model platforms including NVIDIA Nemotron for agentic AI and Cosmos for physical AI." The 10-K also notes that NVIDIA "is the leader in accelerating and releasing open AI models which enterprises, sovereigns, and startups can leverage to develop and run applications on our platform."

Pro Viz / DGX Spark. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25), Professional Visualization revenue was up 70% y/y "driven by exceptional demand for Blackwell as well as the launch of our new DGX Spark."

Strategic partnerships and ecosystem investment. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "We invested $17.5 billion in private companies and infrastructure funds, primarily to support early-stage startups. These investments include AI model makers that purchase our products directly or through CSPs"; "we provided $3.5 billion in land, power, and shell guarantees to early-stage companies, generally over multi-year periods"; and "we are finalizing an investment and partnership agreement with OpenAI. There is no assurance that we will enter into an investment and partnership agreement with OpenAI or that a transaction will be completed." The same MD&A also refers to "the execution of a non-exclusive license agreement with Groq."

The JSON-sourced company description further notes (quoting directly from the JSON): collaboration with Tech Mahindra Limited "to develop artificial intelligence powered telco network operations reasoning agent"; strategic partnership with Lumentum Holdings Inc. "to develop optics technologies for AI and data centers"; strategic partnership with Nebius Group N.V. "to develop and deploy hyperscale cloud for the artificial intelligence market"; and a partnership with IREN Limited "to accelerate deployment of up to 5 gigawatts of infrastructure."

Manufacturing footprint diversification. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "While currently our supply chain is mainly concentrated in Asia, we are expanding into the U.S. and Latin America. These moves are expected to strengthen our supply chain, add resiliency and redundancy, and meet the growing demand for AI infrastructure."

Capex step-up. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): FY2026 capex of $6.1bn versus FY2025's $3.4bn, with management explicitly guiding FY2027 capex higher than FY2026.

IP runway. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25): "Our currently issued patents have expiration dates from March 2026 to June 2045."


8. Competitive Landscape

Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25), current competitors are organised in four named groups:

  • Discrete and integrated GPUs / accelerated AI silicon: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd., and Intel Corporation.
  • Cloud-internal accelerator / AI silicon teams: Alibaba Group, Alphabet Inc. (Google TPU), Amazon, Inc. (Trainium / Inferentia), Baidu, Inc., Huawei, and Microsoft Corporation (Maia).
  • Arm-based CPUs and integrated CPU solutions: Amazon (Graviton), Huawei, and Microsoft.
  • SoC products in servers, autos, autonomous machines, gaming devices: Ambarella, Inc., AMD, Broadcom, Intel, Qualcomm Incorporated, Renesas Electronics Corporation, Samsung, and internal teams "such as Tesla, Inc."
  • Networking products (switches, network adapters / DPUs, optical modules and cables): AMD, Arista Networks, Broadcom, Cisco Systems, Inc., Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company, Huawei, Intel, Lumentum Holdings Inc., and Marvell Technology, Inc.

Named third-party market-share percentages for the AI accelerator and discrete-GPU markets are not disclosed in this report's source data, so a competitor-share chart is not emitted. The 9 May 2026 Motley Fool article (recent_news; url) carries the headline "AMD Stock Is Up 320% Over the Past Year. Should Investors Shift Their Attention Away From Nvidia?" — a competitive-positioning signal but not a market-share figure.

Indirect competitive context. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25): "Our competitive position has been harmed by export controls, and our competitive position and future results will be further harmed, over the long term, if the restrictions remain in place or are expanded in geographic, customer, or product scope, if customers purchase product from competitors, if customers develop their own internal solution... The licensing requirements have already and may in the future benefit certain of our competitors, as the licensing process will make our pre-sale and post-sale technical support efforts more cumbersome and less certain and encourage customers in China, the Middle East, and other regions to pursue alternatives to our products, including semiconductor suppliers based in China, Europe, and Israel."

NVIDIA's stated competitive factors. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25): "the principal competitive factors in this market are performance, breadth of product offerings, access to customers and partners and distribution channels, software support, conformity to industry standard APIs, manufacturing capabilities, processor pricing, and total system costs."


9. Leadership and Ownership

Executive officers (per the FY2026 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-02-25, "as of February 20, 2026"):

| Name | Age | Position | Joined / role since | |---|---|---|---| | Jen-Hsun Huang | 63 | President and Chief Executive Officer | Co-founder, since 1993 | | Colette M. Kress | 58 | Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer | Joined NVIDIA 2013 (prior: Cisco SVP/CFO Business Tech & Ops Finance; Microsoft; Texas Instruments) | | Ajay K. Puri | 71 | Executive Vice President, Worldwide Field Operations | Joined NVIDIA 2005 (prior: 22-year career at Sun Microsystems) | | Debora Shoquist | 71 | Executive Vice President, Operations | Joined NVIDIA 2007 (prior: JDS Uniphase, Coherent, Quantum, Hewlett-Packard) | | Timothy S. Teter | 59 | Executive Vice President and General Counsel | Joined NVIDIA 2017 (prior: Cooley LLP) |

Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25): Jen-Hsun Huang "co-founded NVIDIA in 1993 and has served as our President, Chief Executive Officer, and a member of the Board of Directors since our inception. From 1985 to 1993, Mr. Huang was employed at LSI Logic Corporation... From 1983 to 1985, Mr. Huang was a microprocessor designer for AMD." His tenure as CEO is therefore from 1993 to present (the 10-K's stated incorporation year).

Workforce (per the FY2026 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-02-25): "As of the end of fiscal year 2026, we had approximately 42,000 employees in 38 countries; 31,000 were engaged in research and development and 11,000 were engaged in sales, marketing, operations, and administrative positions." Within the workforce "more than 80 percent have technical roles and more than half of the workforce hold an advanced degree," over 40% of FY2026 new hires came from employee referrals, and turnover for the year was 3.7%.

Top institutional holders (JSON, as of 31 December 2025):

| Holder | Shares | % held | Value (USD) | |---|---|---|---| | Vanguard Group Inc | 2,266,683,275 | 9.33% | $487,790,233,862 | | Blackrock Inc. | 1,943,812,884 | 8.00% | $418,308,526,704 | | State Street Corporation | 991,480,489 | 4.08% | $213,366,598,207 | | FMR, LLC | 971,063,283 | 4.00% | $208,972,815,538 | | Geode Capital Management, LLC | 588,803,093 | 2.42% | $126,710,423,816 | | JPMorgan Chase & Co | 456,141,138 | 1.88% | $98,161,571,505 | | T. Rowe Price Associates Inc | 373,187,926 | 1.54% | $80,310,040,536 | | Norges Bank | 333,748,700 | 1.37% | $71,822,719,221 | | Morgan Stanley | 323,733,984 | 1.33% | $69,667,552,368 | | Northern Trust Corporation | 253,789,803 | 1.04% | $54,615,564,831 |

The combined top-10 institutional stake is approximately 35.0% of shares, dominated by passive index complexes (Vanguard, Blackrock, State Street, Geode) plus FMR. Values are as reported by the source for the 31 December 2025 holding date.

Insider transactions reported in the source data (JSON, last 10 entries, March 2026 cluster). The source data does not encode buy / sell direction for these filings; what is shown below is the share count and dollar value as carried in the JSON. Several entries show $0 of value, which typically indicates a non-cash share movement (e.g. an option vest, RSU release, or Form 4 holdings update without an open-market trade) rather than a cash transaction; readers should consult the underlying SEC Form 4 filings for the transaction code (P / S / M / G / etc.).

| Insider | Position | Date | Shares | Value (USD) | |---|---|---|---|---| | Kress, Colette M. | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-03-20 | 62,650 | 10,956,706 | | Robertson, Donald F. Jr | Officer | 2026-03-20 | 5,396 | 942,944 | | Stevens, Mark A. | Director | 2026-03-20 | 221,682 | 38,502,524 | | Shah, Aarti S. | Director | 2026-03-19 | 19,000 | 3,357,549 | | Puri, Ajay K. | Officer | 2026-03-18 | 300,000 | 54,676,140 | | Huang, Jen-Hsun | Chief Executive Officer | 2026-03-18 | 58,962,602 | 0 | | Seawell, A Brooke | Director | 2026-03-17 | 530 | 0 | | Dabiri, John O. | Director | 2026-03-13 | 3,004 | 555,440 | | Puri, Ajay K. | Officer | 2026-03-10 | 300,000 | 54,756,044 | | Kress, Colette M. | Chief Financial Officer | 2026-03-09 | 47,048 | 0 |

The Huang 2026-03-18 line — 58,962,602 shares with $0 of value — is materially the largest by share count and almost certainly represents a holdings-line update or non-cash movement rather than an open-market transaction; the underlying Form 4 should be inspected directly. The clustering of the named-officer entries (Kress, Puri, Stevens, Shah, Dabiri) in mid-March 2026 is consistent with a window opening after the FY2026 10-K filing on 25 February 2026, but pre-planned 10b5-1 versus discretionary classification is not provided in the source data and is not asserted here.

tradingview-technical-analysis-gauge {{TV_SYMBOL}} = NASDAQ:NVDA {{TICKER}} = NVDA


10. Risks and Challenges

Customer concentration risk. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "For fiscal year 2026, sales to one direct customer represented 22% of total revenue and sales to another direct customer represented 14% of total revenue." That is approximately 36% of FY2026 revenue from two named direct customers, and the names are not disclosed in this filing. The trend has worsened: in FY2025 the largest direct customer was 12% and two others were 11% each.

China / U.S. export-control risk. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25): "As of the end of fiscal year 2026, we were effectively foreclosed from competing in China's data center computing/compute market, and our effective foreclosure from the China market helped our competitors build larger developer and customer ecosystems to challenge us worldwide." The April-2025 H20 license requirement triggered a $4.5 billion charge in Q1 FY2026; the August 2025 H20 license generated only "approximately $60 million in H20 revenue"; the February 2026 H200 license has produced no revenue to date and carries a 25% U.S. import tariff. The same section flags potential further regulation: the AI Diffusion IFR was rescinded in May 2025 with replacement rules pending, and "in October 2025, the Senate passed the 'GAIN AI Act' in the NDAA. The GAIN AI Act would restrict the Trump Administration's ability to adapt the Biden Administration's export control rules, and could also allow private U.S. persons to review and overturn licensing and foreign policy decisions made by the Trump Administration."

Geographic revenue concentration. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "Revenue from sales to customers headquartered outside of the United States accounted for 31% and 41% of total revenue for fiscal years 2026 and 2025, respectively." The cross-jurisdictional concentration into U.S.-headquartered customers in FY2026 is itself a function of the China foreclosure and elevates single-region political-risk exposure.

Supply-chain concentration. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25), NVIDIA depends on TSMC and Samsung for wafer fabrication, on SK Hynix, Micron and Samsung for memory, on Hon Hai, Wistron and Fabrinet for assembly, testing and packaging, and on TSMC's CoWoS technology for advanced semiconductor packaging. The MD&A repeats: "our supply chain is mainly concentrated in Asia."

Inventory and product-transition risk. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "Provisions for inventory and excess inventory purchase obligations totaled $7.2 billion and $3.7 billion for fiscal years 2026 and 2025, respectively, including $4.5 billion associated with H20 excess inventory and purchase obligations for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. Sales of previously reserved inventory and settlements of excess inventory purchase obligations resulted in a provision release of $1.5 billion and $689 million for fiscal years 2026 and 2025, respectively." Manufacturing lead times "have been long, and in some cases, extended beyond twelve months for some products." Non-cancellable inventory orders, premiums and supplier deposits are part of the day-to-day playbook.

Open-source-model and customer-internal-silicon risk. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "The recent rise in high-quality open-source foundation models is making advanced AI capabilities broadly accessible. Open-source AI is dependent on developer adoption and if deployed on our competitors' platforms, it could reduce demand for our products and services." Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 1, filed 2026-02-25), the named cloud-internal-silicon competitor list (Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Baidu, Huawei, Microsoft) is itself the risk register.

Capital-allocation risk. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): $17.5 billion of FY2026 investments in private companies and infrastructure funds, $3.5 billion of land/power/shell guarantees, an unspecified-but-disclosed-as-pending OpenAI investment and partnership ("there is no assurance that we will enter into an investment and partnership agreement with OpenAI or that a transaction will be completed"), and a non-exclusive license agreement with Groq. The 10-K explicitly flags that "if the escrow and the partners' operating activities are not sufficient to cover an event of default under these guarantees, we may elect to assume the underlying leases for internal use or sublease them to third parties."

Tax / regulatory. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): $4.0 billion of unrecognized tax benefits at fiscal year-end 2026, IRS examination ongoing for fiscal years 2023 and 2024, and the OBBBA enacted in July 2025 with effects still being interpreted.

Energy, capital and infrastructure dependency. Per the FY2026 10-K (Item 7, filed 2026-02-25): "The availability of data centers, energy, and capital to support the buildout of NVIDIA AI infrastructure by our customers and partners is crucial, and any shortage of these or other necessary resources could impact our future revenue and financial performance. Expanding energy capacity to meet demand is a complex, multi-year process that involves significant regulatory, technical, and construction challenges."

Risk Factors section disclosure. Item 1A. Risk Factors is present and clean (is_stub: false, suspect_bloat: false) in this filing's extract; the risks summarised above are drawn from Item 7 (MD&A) and Item 1 (Business / Government Regulations) for tightness, with Item 1A available at the SEC source URL (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm) for readers wanting the full enumerated list.


11. Recent Developments

The most recent material items in this report's source data are clustered in the 24 hours before the data snapshot (10 May 2026):

Recent SEC filings (sec_filings[]). NVIDIA filed three 8-Ks since the FY2026 10-K, all available on the SEC EDGAR system: - 8-K filed 2026-05-08 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000028/nvda-20260507.htm - 8-K filed 2026-04-27 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000026/nvda-20260424.htm - 8-K filed 2026-03-06 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000024/nvda-20260302.htm - 10-K filed 2026-02-25 (FY2026, year ended 25 Jan 2026) — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm

The descriptive content of the 8-Ks themselves is not extracted in this report's source data; readers wanting the underlying announcements should open the EDGAR URLs above.


12. Key Dates Coming Up

| Event | Date | Source | |---|---|---| | Next earnings (Q1 FY2027) | 2026-05-20 | JSON calendar.next_earnings_date | | Most recent ex-dividend date | 2026-03-11 | JSON calendar.ex_dividend_date | | Most recent dividend pay date | 2026-04-01 | JSON calendar.dividend_date | | Rubin platform — production shipments expected | Second half of fiscal year 2027 | Per the FY2026 10-K, Item 1, filed 2026-02-25 |

The next earnings release (2026-05-20) is the most material near-term catalyst given the Q1 FY2026 H20 charge base effect, the Blackwell Ultra ramp, the H200 China-license question, and management's stated FY2027 capex step-up. Annual general meeting and product launch dates are not separately disclosed in this report's source data.


Source notes

  • JSON data: data/NVDA_20260510.json — used as source of truth for price, market cap, enterprise value, share counts, ratios, financials_annual, financials_quarterly, holders.institutional_top, holders.insider_transactions, recent_news, calendar and sec_filings per Hard Rule A.
  • 10-K extract: data/NVDA_10K_extract.json (FY2026 10-K, filed 2026-02-25; SEC source URL https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm) — meta.stub_items[] and meta.bloated_items[] are both empty arrays in the extract; Item 1 (Business), Item 1A (Risk Factors), Item 7 (MD&A) and Item 7A (Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk) are all is_stub: false and suspect_bloat: false and were available for citation. Item 8 (Financial Statements and Supplementary Data) returned only 154 characters in the extract (effectively a pointer to the financial statement exhibits) and was not used for narrative content. Where headline P&L lines are quoted (revenue, gross profit, operating income, net income, EPS, FCF, total debt, cash and equivalents, market cap, P/E, etc.), the JSON value is the primary figure per the JSON-precedence rule; the 10-K is used for items the JSON does not carry (segment splits, end-market growth rates, customer concentration, geographic revenue mix, S&M/R&D/SG&A line splits, inventory provisions, debt maturity ladder, ecosystem investment, employee count and split, executive officer ages, and forward roadmap commentary).

Disclaimer

This research note is compiled from the company's public filings, JSON data feeds and named recent news items only. It contains no analyst price targets, no buy/sell/hold ratings, no third-party consensus estimates, and no opinions on whether the stock is "cheap" or "expensive." Forward-looking statements are attributed to the company's own filings or its management. Readers should consult the underlying SEC filings before making any investment decision.

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13. Thesis Verdict

Thesis strength
Moderate
59 / 100

The central thesis. NVIDIA designs GPUs, networking silicon and AI software that power most large-scale AI training and inference workloads, with manufacturing outsourced primarily to TSMC. Data Center drove 89.7% of FY2026 revenue of $215.9 billion, growing 68% to $193.7 billion, alongside Gaming, Professional Visualization, Automotive & Robotics and OEM segments. The structural driver is a four-pillar platform moat — CUDA, NVLink/InfiniBand networking, rack-scale systems like GB200 NVL72, and a growing software stack — monetised at ~75% GAAP gross margin and $96.7 billion of FY2026 free cash flow. The nearest forward catalyst is the Rubin (R200) platform, with first silicon shipping Q2 2026 and targeting roughly 3.3x Blackwell Ultra compute, underpinning Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance of $78 billion ±2%.

What would confirm or break it. Confirmation would come from Rubin shipping on schedule with stable yields, Data Center revenue tracking the $78 billion quarterly guide, and progressive deployment of the OpenAI 10 GW commitment. Materialisation of further China export restrictions beyond the $8 billion FY2026 H20 hit, an adverse DOJ outcome forcing CUDA unbundling, hyperscaler migration to custom silicon (TPU, Trainium, Broadcom XPUs), Rubin HBM4 or CoWoS-L slippage, or disappointing AI returns at vendor-financed customers would challenge the thesis.

Watchpoints

  • ConfirmsSubsequent earnings and filings reinforcing the figures presented in this report.
  • ConfirmsSubsequent earnings and filings reinforcing the figures presented in this report.
  • InvalidatesAny disclosure that directly contradicts a material claim in the bull case.

Diagnostic grid

Bull vs Bear
5 : 5
Peer score
— n/a
5y trend
Positive
High-sev risks
0 of 10
Recent news
Mixed
Generated
23 Apr 2026
Weak · 0–40 Moderate · 41–70 Strong · 71–100

Generated by ChartsView research tooling. Thesis strength measures how well the evidence in this report supports the company's stated thesis — it is NOT a buy/sell rating or price target. ChartsView is not authorised by the FCA to provide regulated investment advice. Generated 23 Apr 2026.