CSX Corporation (CSX) - Company Research

Last Updated: 3 May 2026

CSX Corporation (NASDAQ: CSX) is one of the five remaining North American Class I freight railroads, operating ~20,000 route miles east of the Mississippi across 26 US states, the District of Columbia and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The story over the past nine months has been three-fold: (1) a contested CEO transition — Joe Hinrichs was ousted on 28 September 2025 under pressure from activist investor Ancora Holdings and replaced by ex-Linde CEO Steve Angel, whose compensation package is reportedly tied to executing a Class I merger should the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern deal be approved; (2) the rail-merger super-cycle — UP and NS announced an $85 bn combination in July 2025, refiled their STB application on 30 April 2026, with CSX, BNSF and CPKC formally objecting; and (3) a sharp operating turnaround under Angel, with Q1 2026 (reported 22 April 2026) delivering revenue of $3.48 bn (+2% YoY), operating income +20% to $1.25 bn, operating margin expanding 560bp to 36.0%, EPS +26% to $0.43, free cash flow before dividends $793 m (vs $559 m), and a record Q1 fuel-efficiency print of 0.97 gal/1,000 GTM (March alone: 0.93, the best month since 2021). Management raised FY26 guidance to mid-single-digit revenue growth (from low-single) and operating-margin expansion of 200–300 bp trending toward the high end. Shares closed at $45.52 on 1 May 2026, just below the 52-week high of $46.55 and roughly +60% off the 2025 low (~$27.74), with a market cap of ~$84 bn. The Howard Street Tunnel double-stack project and the $450 m Blue Ridge Subdivision rebuild after Hurricane Helene both completed in late 2025. Live pricing on our live charts, the next earnings release on the economic calendar, and rail-merger discussion on the ChartsView forum.

1. Company Snapshot

Company	CSX Corporation
Ticker	NASDAQ: CSX (S&P 500)
Sector / Industry	Industrials — Class I Freight Rail (Eastern US)
HQ	500 Water Street, Jacksonville, Florida 32202, USA
President & CEO	Stephen F. (Steve) Angel (since 28 September 2025; ex-Linde / Praxair CEO 2007–2022)
EVP & CFO	Kevin S. Boone (named CFO October 2025; previously CCO)
EVP & COO	Cory Michael A. (Mike Cory)
Founded	1980 (Chessie System + Seaboard Coast Line merger)
Network	~20,000 route miles, 26 US states + DC + Ontario & Quebec; ~70 ports served
Employees	~22,500 (Q1 2026, after a 5% YoY headcount reduction)
Fiscal year end	31 December
Share price (1 May 2026)	$45.52
52-week range	~$27.74 – $46.55
Market cap	~$84 bn (~1.86 bn shares)
FY2025 revenue	$14.092 bn (-3.1% YoY)
FY2025 operating ratio (adj)	66.8% (33.2% adj operating margin)
Q1 2026 revenue	$3.48 bn (+2% YoY); operating margin 36.0%
Q1 2026 EPS (diluted)	$0.43 (+26% YoY)
Quarterly dividend	$0.14 (annualised $0.56) — raised 7.6% from $0.13 in Feb 2026
Next results	Q2 2026 — expected Wednesday 22 July 2026

2. Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case	Bear Case
Q1 2026 operating-margin expansion of 560bp (30.4% → 36.0%) under new CEO Steve Angel; management raised FY26 guidance to mid-single-digit revenue growth and 200–300 bp margin expansion trending to the high end — the precise turnaround pattern Angel delivered at Praxair (+257% TSR) and Linde (+219% TSR).	Coal is structurally declining: FY25 coal volume -17% and revenue down to ~13% of mix; export coal continues to fall and domestic utility coal is exposed to gas-price volatility and renewable substitution. Q1 2026 coal volume was again ~1% lower.
Optionality on M&A: Angel's compensation package is reportedly tied to executing a Class I merger if UP+NS is approved; CSX has filed at the STB to oppose UP+NS but a counter-deal with BNSF or CPKC is the natural defensive move — eastern network plus a western partner = transcontinental.	UP+NS combined would control ~40% of US rail freight (and is the same share BNSF currently moves) — if STB approves it without strict gateway protection, CSX could be locked out of single-line transcontinental traffic and forced into competitive concessions or a defensive merger of its own.
$793 m of free cash flow before dividends in Q1 2026 (vs $559 m); 5% YoY headcount reduction; record Q1 fuel efficiency 0.97 gal/1,000 GTM; train velocity +7% to 18.9 mph and dwell -7% to 10.7 hours — all the operating KPIs are moving the right way.	Valuation now reflects much of the turnaround: trailing P/E ~25.4× (Feb 2026), EV/EBITDA ~13.0–13.9×, EV/FCF ~54.8×; the shares have run ~60% off the 2025 low into Q1 2026 print and are within 2% of the 52-week high.
Howard Street Tunnel reopened (September 2025) clearing the I-95 corridor for double-stack intermodal service; Blue Ridge Subdivision rebuild (60 miles, $450 m, ~14 m gross tons/year) returned to service October 2025 — both 2025 disruption headwinds have flipped to 2026 tailwinds.	Activist Ancora has not exited; Angel's mandate explicitly includes M&A and the board reshuffle in Sep 2025 was contested. If FY26 execution slips, capital-allocation pressure (forced merger, sale, or special dividend) could resurface.
Industrial-development pipeline: ~100 new customer projects expected to come online in 2026, targeting a ~50% YoY ramp in unit volume from the 2025 cohort — a structural source of merchandise volume that is independent of the broader freight cycle.	~17% of FY25 revenue mix is exposed to interest-rate-sensitive end markets (forest products, automotive); Q1 2026 forest-products volume -9% on weak housing demand and prior-year facility closures.

3. What Does This Company Actually Do?

CSX Transportation, the operating subsidiary of CSX Corporation, runs Class I freight rail across the eastern half of the United States. It hauls goods across four lines of business; FY25 revenue mix ($14.092 bn):

Segment	What it hauls	FY25 revenue	% of FY25 sales
Merchandise	Chemicals, agricultural products, automotive, metals & equipment, minerals, forest products, food & consumer	~$8.8 bn	~64%
Intermodal	Domestic and international containers and trailers (rail + truck final-mile)	~$2.1 bn	~14%
Coal	Domestic utility coal, export thermal & metallurgical coal (out of Curtis Bay, Newport News, Mobile)	~$1.9 bn	~13%
Trucking & Other	Quality Carriers (intermodal trucking subsidiary), demurrage, switching, real-estate income	~$0.82 bn	~9%

Customer footprint: CSX's network reaches roughly two-thirds of the US population from a single hub system. Key revenue end-markets within Merchandise (FY25): chemicals (~$2.6 bn), agricultural & food products, automotive (Detroit and southern OEM plants), metals (steel mills), minerals (aggregates, sand, cement), forest products (paper / pulp / lumber). Intermodal mixes domestic 53-foot containers (J.B. Hunt, Schneider) with international ocean-shipper freight off the East Coast ports of New York/New Jersey, Norfolk, Charleston and Savannah. Coal is split roughly 60/40 domestic utility / export, both structurally shrinking volumes.

4. The Business Model

• The single most-watched metric is the Operating Ratio (OR). Class I rails are evaluated on opex as a % of revenue. CSX printed a Q1 2026 OR of 64.0% (operating margin 36.0%), down from 69.6% a year earlier. The full-year FY25 adjusted OR was 66.8%; FY24 was 63.9%. Best-in-class Canadian rails (CN, CPKC) typically print sub-60% ORs.
• Tonnage-based pricing with fuel-surcharge pass-through. CSX prices freight per car or container; a fuel surcharge is added in dollars-per-mile and resets monthly with diesel forwards — rising diesel inflates reported revenue dollar-for-dollar without margin impact, and falling diesel does the reverse. Management's raised FY26 revenue guide is partly fuel-surcharge driven.
• Exclusive franchise / network density. Each Class I rail has a regional monopoly along most of its mainlines; competition is intermodal trucks (for distances <500 miles) and other rails at "interchange" points. CSX is one of two Class Is east of the Mississippi (CSX vs Norfolk Southern), and an UP+NS approval would re-shape that competitive map.
• Capital intensity. Track, locomotives, freight cars, signals and IT eat ~$2.6 bn of capex per year; FCF discipline depends on managing this. CSX delivered Q1 2026 FCF before dividends of $793 m and is guiding FY26 FCF growth >60% YoY.
• Capital return. Quarterly dividend $0.14 (raised 7.6% in Feb 2026, 23 years without a cut). Buyback ongoing — Q1 2026 repurchases of $222 m / 6 m shares; FY24 buybacks $2.24 bn; FY23 $3.48 bn; FY22 $4.73 bn (the multi-year programme is running at lower intensity in the current period).
• Government / regulatory: CSX does not depend on subsidies for revenue. The Surface Transportation Board (STB) is the federal economic regulator; the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) is the safety regulator. CSX was deemed "revenue adequate" by the STB for 2024. The most material regulatory variable for 2026 is the STB review of the UP+NS merger.

5. Financial Health

Five-year financials (calendar year-end):

Metric	FY21	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
Revenue ($bn)	12.52	14.85	14.66	14.54	14.092
YoY %	+21%	+19%	-1.3%	-0.8%	-3.1%
Operating ratio (reported)	~55.3%	~59.5%	~62.7%	~63.9%	~67.9% (66.8% adj)
Operating margin	~44.7%	~40.5%	~37.3%	~36.1%	~32.1% (33.2% adj)
Net income ($bn)	~3.78	4.114	3.668	3.47	~2.89
EPS (diluted, $)	~1.68	1.95	1.82	1.79	1.54 (adj 1.61)
Buybacks ($bn)	~2.88	4.73	3.48	2.24	~0.65
Annual DPS ($)	0.39	0.42	0.44	0.48	0.52

Quarterly trajectory (revenue and reported operating margin):

Period	Revenue ($bn)	Op margin	Notes
Q1 2025	3.42	30.4%	Hinrichs era; Helene / Howard St disruption
Q2 2025	3.57	~31%	Mid-year, ahead of leadership change
Q3 2025	4.46	~30%	Includes goodwill impairment $164 m; Hinrichs ousted 28 Sep
Q4 2025	3.508	~31.6%	First full quarter under Angel; Blue Ridge re-opens
Q1 2026	3.48	36.0%	+560bp YoY; record Q1 fuel efficiency 0.97 gal/1000 GTM

Q1 2026 operating KPIs vs Q1 2025: train velocity 18.9 mph (+7%); terminal dwell 10.7 hours (-7%); fuel efficiency 0.97 gal/1,000 GTM (record Q1, with March printing 0.93 — best month since 2021); headcount -5%; total operating expenses -6% YoY to $2.23 bn (purchased services and other -$158 m, plus $44 m of property-disposition gains).

6. Valuation & Market Data

Share price (1 May 2026 close)	$45.52
52-week range	$27.74 – $46.55
Shares outstanding (Q1 2026)	~1.86 bn
Market cap	~$84.4 bn
Trailing P/E	~25.4× (Feb 2026); ~22.97× (more recent data point, May 2026)
Forward P/E	~19.4×
EV/EBITDA	~13.0–13.9× (May 2026 data)
EV/FCF	~54.8×
P/S (TTM)	~6.0×
Dividend yield	~1.23% ($0.56 annualised)
Short interest	~31.71 m shares (~1.70% of outstanding)
Put/call ratio	n/d (option chain not material to CSX given large float)

7. What Are They Building / What's Coming?

• Howard Street Tunnel double-stack project (Baltimore): Original tunnel reopened end-September 2025; full I-95 corridor double-stack capability (cleared overpasses) on track for Q2 2026 completion — first time domestic double-stack containers can move that lane in CSX history.
• Blue Ridge Subdivision rebuild: $450 m, 60-mile reconstruction after Hurricane Helene (October 2024); reopened first week of October 2025 with the new 530-ft Poplar Bridge built ballast-deck for resilience. The line handles ~14 m gross tons annually.
• AI & data modernisation: CSX completed a Microsoft Fabric / Infosys Topaz data overhaul on 24 February 2026, collapsing 50,000 legacy reports into ~1,200 AI-first dashboards; AI-driven railcar inspections at speeds up to 40 mph; FAA-approved autonomous drones operating at 13 yards have cut inspection times by ~90%.
• Industrial development: ~100 new customer projects expected to come online in 2026 with management targeting a ~50% YoY ramp in unit volume vs the 2025 cohort — a structural source of merchandise volume.
• Capital programme: Annual capex run-rate ~$2.6 bn including PTC enhancements, locomotive overhauls, signalling, and route capacity work.
• Q2 2026 results: Expected Wednesday 22 July 2026.
• FY26 guidance (raised at Q1 print): mid-single-digit revenue growth (up from low-single), operating-margin expansion 200–300 bp trending to the high end, FCF growth >60% YoY.
• M&A optionality: Angel's compensation package is reportedly tied to executing a Class I merger if UP+NS is approved — positions BNSF and CPKC as natural counter-merger candidates.

8. Competitive Landscape

CSX competes within the seven North American Class I railroads (BNSF, CN, CPKC, CSX, Ferromex, NS, UP). The eastern half of the US is essentially a duopoly with Norfolk Southern; the western half is a duopoly between Union Pacific and BNSF. Trucking competes for shorter hauls, particularly in intermodal.

Peer	FY24 revenue	Approx share of "Big Four" US rail revenue	Notes
Union Pacific (UP)	$24.3 bn	~33%	NYSE: UNP. Western US #1; bidder for NS in proposed $85 bn merger refiled at STB on 30 April 2026.
BNSF Railway	$23.4 bn	~32%	Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary (private); western US co-leader; Buffett publicly ruled out a CSX merger in 2025.
CSX	$14.5 bn	~20%	Subject company — eastern US co-leader; opposed UP+NS filing at STB.
Norfolk Southern (NS)	$12.1 bn	~16%	NYSE: NSC. Eastern US #2; target of UP merger proposal.
Canadian National (CN)	~$13.0 bn (CAD ~17.5 bn)	excluded above (cross-border)	NYSE: CNI. Best-in-class operating ratio <60%; primarily Canadian network with Chicago–New Orleans south reach.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC)	~$10.7 bn (CAD ~14.5 bn)	excluded above (cross-border)	NYSE: CP. Only single-line Canada–US–Mexico Class I; potential CSX merger partner.

Competitive impact of UP+NS: The proposed Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern combination would create a single carrier moving ~40% of US freight by gross ton-miles — the same share that BNSF currently moves alone, but with an integrated transcontinental network for the first time. The principal risk to CSX is interchange / gateway pricing power: today, an East Coast shipper sending freight to California must hand off the load to a western Class I (typically UP at Memphis / New Orleans / Chicago) under negotiated rates. A unified UP+NS would offer single-line transcontinental service that bypasses CSX gateways entirely, potentially diverting intermodal volume. CSX, BNSF and CPKC have all formally objected to the STB filing; the STB has 30 days from the 30 April 2026 refiling to accept it, after which a detailed review takes >1 year. Deal terms: UP can walk if STB requires >$750 m of concessions; NS receives a $2.5 bn break-fee.

9. Leadership and Ownership

President & CEO: Stephen F. (Steve) Angel assumed the role on 28 September 2025, succeeding Joe Hinrichs after activist pressure from Ancora Holdings. Angel previously served as CEO of Praxair (2007–2018) and CEO of the merged Linde plc (2018–2022); during his Praxair tenure total shareholder return was +257%, and the Praxair–Linde combination drove +219% TSR while increasing combined market cap by +141%. He has been described in trade press as a "noted dealmaker," and his CSX compensation package has been reported as being structured around executing a Class I merger should UP+NS be approved.

EVP & CFO: Kevin S. Boone, named CFO in October 2025; previously CSX's Chief Commercial Officer. Sean R. Pelkey departed as CFO in October 2025 in the broader leadership transition.

EVP & COO: Mike Cory (Cory Michael A.).

Recent Section 16 insider transactions (selected):

Date	Insider	Action	Shares	Price	Notes
26 Feb 2026	Kevin S. Boone (CFO)	LTIP grant	15,241 RSUs + 75,982 options	$0.00 strike on RSUs	2026–2028 Long-Term Incentive Plan award; not a market transaction
26 Feb 2026	Mike Cory (COO)	LTIP grant	15,241 RSUs + 75,982 options	n/a	2026–2028 LTIP; not a market transaction
19 Feb 2026	Diana B. Sorfleet (EVP & CAO)	Option exercise & sale	90,000	$41.56	Exercised 13,344 + 25,434 + 51,222 options; open-market sale at WAP $41.56; ~$3.74 m proceeds
13 Feb 2026	Diana B. Sorfleet	Tax-withholding (F)	2,010 + 1,711 + 1,856	$40.87	Mandatory tax-withholding on RSU vest; non-discretionary

CSX policy permits Section 16 insiders to transact via Rule 10b5-1 plans; whether each open-market sale is plan-driven appears in Form 4 footnotes on a per-filing basis. CEO Angel has not filed an open-market sale since assuming the role on 28 September 2025; CFO Boone's only 2026 filings to date are LTIP equity awards, not market transactions.

Top institutional holders (per 13F data, position sizes move quarterly): Vanguard Group, BlackRock, State Street, Wellington Management, Capital Research & Management. Activist Ancora Holdings disclosed an increasing CSX position through 2025 and was the proximate driver of the Hinrichs → Angel transition.

10. Risks and Challenges

• UP+NS merger risk: If approved by the STB, Union Pacific would acquire Norfolk Southern in an $85 bn deal creating a single transcontinental carrier moving ~40% of US freight. CSX could lose interchange volume and pricing power on transcontinental intermodal lanes; the formal objection CSX filed at the STB acknowledges this exposure. Conversely, denial of the deal removes the M&A optionality embedded in Angel's compensation package.
• Coal structural decline: FY25 coal volume -17%, revenue -1% in Q1 2026 on -1% volume. Domestic utility coal is exposed to natural-gas substitution and renewables; export coal to thermal markets in Asia is exposed to seaborne freight rates and Chinese demand. Coal is now ~13% of revenue but contributes a higher share of margin given its tonnage density.
• Activist pressure: Ancora Holdings has not exited and was the proximate driver of the Hinrichs ouster. Angel's mandate explicitly includes M&A; if FY26 execution slips, capital-allocation pressure (forced merger, sale, or special dividend) is plausible.
• Trucking-rail substitution: Diesel-truck capacity remains abundant after the 2024–2025 freight recession; sub-500 mile lanes are economically marginal for rail intermodal vs truck.
• Interest-rate-sensitive end markets: Forest products (housing) -9% volume in Q1 2026; automotive volumes track North American auto build, which is exposed to tariff policy and consumer financing rates.
• Operating leverage works both ways: Class I rails are heavily fixed-cost. The same operating leverage that drove Q1 2026 OR -560bp can reverse on a volume slowdown.
• Catastrophe / weather risk: Hurricane Helene cost CSX $450 m for the Blue Ridge rebuild alone (October 2024 event, October 2025 reopening). Climate exposure to the eastern US is structurally rising.
• Labour: The Class I rail workforce is unionised under multiple agreements; the 2022 PEB / Congressional rail-deal precedent (sick-leave) may set the bar in the next contract round.
• Litigation / regulatory: Routine product-liability, derailment-related and environmental litigation. Federal Railroad Administration safety oversight intensified after East Palestine (NS, 2023); CSX safety record has improved into 2026 but the regulatory backdrop is sterner.
• Valuation: Trailing P/E ~25×, EV/EBITDA ~13–14×, EV/FCF ~55×. Shares are within ~2% of the 52-week high after a ~60% rally off the 2025 low; expectations are high.

11. Recent Developments

• 1 May 2026: CSX closed at $45.52 (range $44.53–$45.79); 52-week high of $46.55 set in late April. UP+NS merger objection filings continue to develop at the STB.
• 30 April 2026: Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern formally refiled their $85 bn merger application with the Surface Transportation Board after the STB rejected the initial filing in January 2026 as incomplete. CSX, BNSF and CPKC have all submitted formal objections.
• 22 April 2026 — Q1 2026 results: Revenue $3.48 bn (+2% YoY); operating income $1.25 bn (+20%); operating margin 36.0% (+560bp); diluted EPS $0.43 (+26%); FCF before dividends $793 m (vs $559 m); 6 m shares repurchased for $222 m. Volume +3% to 1.56 m units (intermodal +6%, merchandise flat, coal -1%). Train velocity +7% to 18.9 mph; dwell -7% to 10.7 hours; record Q1 fuel efficiency 0.97 gal/1,000 GTM. FY26 guidance raised: mid-single-digit revenue growth, OR expansion 200–300 bp toward the high end, FCF growth >60% YoY.
• 2 April 2026: American Train Dispatchers Association becomes the sixth national rail union to support the proposed UP+NS merger via a "jobs-for-life" agreement — potentially weakening labour-side opposition at the STB.
• 26 February 2026: Long-Term Incentive Plan equity grants (RSUs + options) to CFO Kevin Boone and COO Mike Cory under the 2026–2028 LTIP.
• 24 February 2026: CSX announced completion of its data-platform modernisation with Infosys Topaz on Microsoft Fabric — collapsing 50,000 legacy reports into ~1,200 AI-first dashboards.
• February 2026: Quarterly dividend raised 7.6% to $0.14 per share ($0.56 annualised), paid 13 March 2026 to shareholders of record 27 February. 23-year streak of uncut dividends maintained.
• 22 January 2026 (FY25 print): FY25 revenue $14.092 bn (-3.1%); operating income $4.52 bn ($4.69 bn adjusted ex $164 m Q3 goodwill impairment); adjusted operating margin 33.2%. Q4 2025 revenue $3.508 bn (-0.9%); EPS $0.39.
• January 2026: STB rejected UP+NS initial merger application as incomplete, citing insufficient detail on competitive balance and customer impact — setting up the 30 April refiling.
• ~November / December 2025: Steve Angel meets investors and lays out turnaround focus on operating ratio, fuel efficiency and disciplined cost; explicitly downplays imminent M&A activity ("very few people working on this... 23,000 people focused on running the railroad").
• October 2025: Sean Pelkey departs as CFO; Kevin Boone (previously CCO) named EVP & CFO. Blue Ridge Subdivision returns to service in early October following $450 m, 60-mile rebuild after Hurricane Helene.
• 28 September 2025: CSX board names Steve Angel President & CEO; Joe Hinrichs departs as CEO and director after activist Ancora Holdings campaign citing "value-destructive tenure".
• ~End-September 2025: Howard Street Tunnel reopens to rail traffic after the major double-stack clearance project that began on 1 February 2025; remaining I-95 corridor overpass clearance work to complete Q2 2026.
• July–August 2025: Union Pacific announces $85 bn agreement to acquire Norfolk Southern, triggering the rail-merger super-cycle; Warren Buffett tells CNBC BNSF will not pursue a CSX or NS combination, but acknowledges Buffett/Greg Abel met with Joe Hinrichs on 3 August to discuss greater cooperation.

12. Key Dates Coming Up

Date	Event
~End-May 2026	STB decision deadline (30 days from 30 April refiling) on whether to accept UP+NS merger application for detailed review
~Mid-May 2026	Q2 2026 dividend declaration (typically declared in May)
~Late May / June 2026	Q2 2026 ex-dividend & payment dates
Q2 2026	Howard Street Tunnel I-95 corridor double-stack overpass clearance project completion
Wednesday 22 July 2026	Q2 2026 earnings release (after-market)
October 2026	Q3 2026 earnings release
Late January 2027	Q4 / FY2026 earnings release
2026–2027	STB substantive review of UP+NS merger (typically 12–18 months from acceptance)
FY2026	Management guidance: mid-single-digit revenue growth; OR improvement 200–300 bp toward high end; FCF growth >60% YoY; ~100 industrial-development projects coming online

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. ChartsView does not use analyst price targets, ratings, or consensus estimates. All figures are sourced from CSX press releases, SEC filings, the Surface Transportation Board, and other public materials. Always do your own due diligence.