F4T,

I know, I am not acting on your analysis. But, sometimes, it gives another view from another angle.
I have exited my two postiions this morning..
Have a good day ta
G

Paitech, never act on another persons analysis. That is not why I posted it.

F4T

Thanks F4T.
I may close my oil position...
Ta
G

Some ideas for Crude and PMO.

WTI broke support yesterday and Brent is at support. I am looking for WTI of 60 and Brent at 70 before OPEC meeting on 22/6







Where might this take PMO? Some potential targets but ultimately 73 for me. Let's see what happens




F4T

Oil prices tumbled amid concerns over rising US production despite the high probability that OPEC members will agree to extend production.In the first week of May Oil settles higher in the previous sessions after a dovish movements in the markets.

Apologies, close was 66.75, below the 61.8% fib, so therefore remains bearish. Needs to close above 68 on Monday for me, otherwise gap close seems certain. Volume still indicates that lows are being bought up though. Mondays action will be fascinating.

Interesting price action today. Overshot 68 but closed there which was no coincidence. Volume indicates that this could be a bottom forming. I would wait to see what happens Monday. I would expect a bit of weakness in the am then a bounce and close above 68. Might get a gap close but no worries if it still closes above 68.

Need to look at charts and will post something Sunday evening as away.

F4T

WTI Breakout

Target
Short term - Short term 55.2
Mid term - 59.1
Long term - 63.4




PMO

For an aggressive entry - Short Term timing for entry 79.3 (today) with a stop below previous low of 75.5
Target 87 R:R of 1:1, 96 R:R 1:4

If you are patient entry - wait for 123 low breakout - so enter on a break of 87 with a stop below todays low of 76.75 - R:R 1:1

Well this has looked bearish for some time tbh...

Anyway, i wouldn't get too bearish on this just yet, and from my perspective of looking for a good entry, i'm watching the 50 day ema line on the weekly, as i think that's the key here imvho.

In a nutshell, it needs to hold 75.5p and push back above 80p and 84.25p, that gives me my entry....84.25p being the resistance trendline and 20 day ema line on the daily.
So long positions (for me) on close above 84.25p (those numbers change a touch daily), with tight stops imvho....

A failure at 75.25p, with weekly close below this level, will almost certainly lead to a increased downside momentum and 60p > 50p, is not only possible but highly likely imvho....

So important week here for premier imho.

as always dyor,wdik,atb,
trendfriend

premier oil weekly chart

Crude still in apex but hanging man Friday indicates to me it might break lower. A close below 53 will give 51.60 again IMO. A break of 51.60 will give 50 quickly IMO.
Draining confidence in supply glut reduction supports this though any fall may be tempered by USdollar which looks like it might continue its retrace in the short term (at support currently).







PMO looks very bearish. Didn't reach 89 and sold down rapidly.

Weekly RSI has broken back below trendline (chart trendline support @62.50 below SMA20 @73.50 and SMA50 68.50.

On Daily we had a decisive trendline break and confirmed three inside down candle pattern. IMO a close below 78.50 should give a RSI support break and an SP retrace to SMA200 minimum currently at 71 with 61.8% fib at 68 and a gap close at 60.25 below that (As noted by TF). My money is on a bounce at 68-70p but blue channel and gap close very possible. A spike in volume will tell us when a bottom is forming or formed.



So, my call is Crude to 51.60 minimum and PMO to 68 minimum. Volume key indicator.

GL
F4T

There will be a sharp move on crude over the next few days. Pressure is building, but which way will it blow?

In the short term I think WTI will remain within its range, giving a ceiling of 54.85 on my chart.

For PMO, a minor gap closed this am but 85 is holding and building pressure. Next resistance is the SMA20 at 89 with blue sky above to the key 96 area. IMO we will certainly see 89/90 very soon but a close above 96 could be some weeks away without a significant catalyst.

The PMO uptrend is intact though and I certainly do not see 60 again in the medium term outside global apocalypse or Trump pushing the wrong key or button during one of his sleepless nights. 77 should hold.


F4T

This looks ok, but i make a break close above 85.5p the key imvho.
85.5p no break no higher.

atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

PMO - resistance of 78 acting as a support as can be seen on the chart

This is still in uptrend until we see a close below 68

If this manages a close above 87 next week, It will make another attempt at 96, 108

If we get a close below 78, it can drop quickly to 68, 63



To me - another attempt at 96 is more likely looking at the WTI chart

WTI - is range bound - still IHS target is not negated



This needs a close above 54 USD for an attempt towards 61 USD

Technically - move north for WTI and Oilies looks more likely next week

Good call here F4T.

I think a drop to the main trendline and gap fill to 60p area is possible here as a worst case.
a test of the 200 day ema at about 72p is almost certain imvho.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Crude remains range bound, however USdollar looks like it is ready to go bullish which would put pressure on commodities. I see a retrace to 51.60




No change in my assessment of PMO, which is playing out nicely. Still awaiting a close above 96 which looks increasingly unlikely in the short term. Channel now broken but stalled at 50% retracement of latest move. Fib support at 80 then trendline support at 77 coupled with SMA50 which is a good target. Lower support at 73.25

So, crude to lower of range and PMO to 77 rather quickly.

F4T

Let me qualify my last comment, taking out personal bias.

I see a moderate/limited retrace in both crude and PMO. Given the rapid rise in PMO last week and the limited expectations of a significant rise in crude in the short term, I do not feel that the retrace of PMO to 85 is sufficient before a general move higher. Time will tell.

Crude is rangebound. A close above 54.05 is bullish, a close below 50.82 is bearish but with 50SMA and 200SMA just below there is good support in this area. Bearish engulfing candlestick on Friday.

Conclusion is that crude will stay in this range before breaking higher. First resistance is 55.79.




PMO is tricky to call.
Currently pinching out in a bull pennant. My previous resistance of 96.95 a few days ago held well with resistance of 109.70 above that.A close above this 97 area will be significant in pushing the next leg higher.

In support we have a cluster. Rising 20SMA now at 77.70, breakout point at 78.50. We also have 61.8% fib of the most recent move at 79.75 and the 38.2% fib of the whole move at 80.45

Considering PMO with crude,I favour a retrace in PMO before the move higher. Friday we had a bearish harami cross. Lots of supports to choose from but the higher is more dependable for a quick retrace if one wanted to enter or add, so I would target 80 - 80.50

F4T