EUR.USD

my only comment is that a long position like that is counter trend.
The EUR/USD is in a weekly, daily, h4 down trend and I am only looking to for intra day longs, generally very bearish the EUR.
Congrats on your 60 pips or so. Hope you took the trade , it was a good call.

Possible long on this pair at the 38.2% Fib and support at 1.2750:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/EURUSDdaily06_11_12.gif

Comments welcome...

Still chugging South.

Amazing what a difference a day makes.
Up until midday yesterday I was getting ready to trade a trend line bounce.
based on the Apex formation that was forming at the top of a move.
The fact that this broke due to NFP and the rest of the news now means I am trading a Head & Shoulders pattern, which has broken down through the neck line.
The patterns that occur on charts are always potential. So the potential was for the apex to hold and for price to bounce off the lower trend line and go high. Which it did, until NFP.
Now that price has broken the neck line this confirms a head and shoulders pattern, so there is no point fighting against it.
I was a little late to the party for one reason or another but I no have an entry, stop and target.
Stop is above the H4 candle as it's the weekend. Who knows what will happen in Europe today and tomorrow, let alone the for the rest of the year.
When the market opens up tomorrow night I'll leave the stop where it is as I currently am protecting my risk and have enough of a gap between the entry and stop to pay for the commission etc.
Come 8am Monday i'll re-evaluate my position. If we have gone down a lot, I'll trail my stop.
However, I am waiting also for a retest of the neck line to see if I can get a better entry.
It would be great to see price come up to the magenta line, for price action to set up a short and then take it for the ride all the way down for about 300 pips.
At present if price was to fall like a knife to the PT i still look to be aiming for a 150-200 pip move but I am realistic and envisage a pull back to test resistance/support.
We'll just have to wait and see what Mr. Market gives us.
However, seeing the Eur/Usd break down has now got me thinking that the FTSE is looking like a great short. Just in case the pattern repeats over there too.

So Price went through the confluence of Previous Resistnace acting as Support and the fib and short term ema's.
Didn't see any Price Action set ups until Price had come down to around the previous Trend Line and the 200ema .
A big reversal candle on a m30 isn't the greatest reason to get involved but it was enough of me to take an extra position, whilst tucking my new stop under the swing low that my previous order is under. Then when price created a new swing low I moved the stop up.
Still not at Break Even but will wait for a new swing low or a stop out on the 2 orders.

So it came down as predicted, but bounced up a bitter quicker than expected.
Here is the confluence as it happened and the Blue square is where I would be looking to add to my position, depending on the Price Action and a candle stick pattern appearing in my favour.