my only comment is that a long position like that is counter trend.
The EUR/USD is in a weekly, daily, h4 down trend and I am only looking to for intra day longs, generally very bearish the EUR.
Congrats on your 60 pips or so. Hope you took the trade , it was a good call.

Possible long on this pair at the 38.2% Fib and support at 1.2750:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/EURUSDdaily06_11_12.gif

Comments welcome...

Still chugging South.

Amazing what a difference a day makes.
Up until midday yesterday I was getting ready to trade a trend line bounce.
based on the Apex formation that was forming at the top of a move.
The fact that this broke due to NFP and the rest of the news now means I am trading a Head & Shoulders pattern, which has broken down through the neck line.
The patterns that occur on charts are always potential. So the potential was for the apex to hold and for price to bounce off the lower trend line and go high. Which it did, until NFP.
Now that price has broken the neck line this confirms a head and shoulders pattern, so there is no point fighting against it.
I was a little late to the party for one reason or another but I no have an entry, stop and target.
Stop is above the H4 candle as it's the weekend. Who knows what will happen in Europe today and tomorrow, let alone the for the rest of the year.
When the market opens up tomorrow night I'll leave the stop where it is as I currently am protecting my risk and have enough of a gap between the entry and stop to pay for the commission etc.
Come 8am Monday i'll re-evaluate my position. If we have gone down a lot, I'll trail my stop.
However, I am waiting also for a retest of the neck line to see if I can get a better entry.
It would be great to see price come up to the magenta line, for price action to set up a short and then take it for the ride all the way down for about 300 pips.
At present if price was to fall like a knife to the PT i still look to be aiming for a 150-200 pip move but I am realistic and envisage a pull back to test resistance/support.
We'll just have to wait and see what Mr. Market gives us.
However, seeing the Eur/Usd break down has now got me thinking that the FTSE is looking like a great short. Just in case the pattern repeats over there too.

So Price went through the confluence of Previous Resistnace acting as Support and the fib and short term ema's.
Didn't see any Price Action set ups until Price had come down to around the previous Trend Line and the 200ema .
A big reversal candle on a m30 isn't the greatest reason to get involved but it was enough of me to take an extra position, whilst tucking my new stop under the swing low that my previous order is under. Then when price created a new swing low I moved the stop up.
Still not at Break Even but will wait for a new swing low or a stop out on the 2 orders.

So it came down as predicted, but bounced up a bitter quicker than expected.
Here is the confluence as it happened and the Blue square is where I would be looking to add to my position, depending on the Price Action and a candle stick pattern appearing in my favour.

in meta trader i save , chart as is, i guess it uses the resolution of my screen.
then when i post it on my blog, it goes in as full size, so as not to lose any resolution.
I click copy image URL from my blog (right click on the chart, when its uploaded) then past that URL into the image link on your forum.
So I guess as long as your image starts off big , it should always be big as I don't resize it at any point.

Follownev...

How did you manage to get your chart so big when we click on it.
Thats cool.Never new that was possible.
any chance you could tell me please.
thanks
remo(learning every day)

I trade with Fibs but I don't trade Fibs.
The Fibs for me outline areas of interest and I look for confluence from other factors on my charts.
On the Daily Chart I placed a Trend Line above and below as per the wedge but I could only do this when a bottom and top each time had been made, so post any trading opportunities based on the wedge trend lines. However, now that I have these 2 trend lines I can look for other entries to buy should Price come down to meet or go up to meet a trend line.
On the Daily chart the 200ema also acted as an area of support and this was part of the confluence I traded combined with the Daily Trend Lines.


Using the H4 chart I was able to span a Fib retracement between the 2 trend lines and I noted that Price came down and settled near the 76.4% , which is a deep retracement but with a lot of things I trade it can easily go down to the magic 89.1%, so I don't trade off Fibs I just wait and see if like on the H4 chart a Trend Line and 200ema are also hovering around a fib line. In this case they were.
So I then wait to see if Price action setups will occur or a big rejecting candle. In this case on the H4 chart there was an inside bar but price broke down into support from the Trend Line, the Fib and the 200ema, so there was no way I was going to be a seller here.


I waited for a rejection of those levels and bought on the way back up.
I am now in good profit and I have a stop in a safe enough area to protect me from losing and now I am waiting for a retest of another area before moving my stop up and scaling into this trade.
I fully expect the Price to come down over the next 4- 8 hours to 1.29465, which is where I would put my stop should the H4 chart have a newly created higher swing low.

I think we need to be careful to distinguish between technical "correctness" and successful trading techniques. There is room for both and they don't necessarily need to agree.

KI appears to have a trading technique which has proved very successful, if unconventional. What really counts is what works because what works makes money.

I actually don't think that there is too much difference apart from where expansions are projected from, especially if you use the 76.4% Fib rather than the 78.6% one - in that case there's no difference at all in where the Fib retracement lines fall, they just have different labels. Extensions are a different matter and, IMHO, extensions only really apply when you're looking for wave 3 resistance or wave 5 resistance in the event that wave 3 was not extended (ie wave 3 was a similar length to wave 1 so that wave 5 is likely to be extended)

I do agree with remo, though, in that Fibs are transient. They belong to individual waves and this is exactly what I was trying to explain in the "EWT and Fibs" thread.

Hi KI
With fibs you should delete them once it's don'e it's thing. They don't play a part say a year latter. They do have a life span.

The reason I say it's not a fib is due to the fib being upside down. Every thing starts from zero. Not 100. It's trying to find the retracement in percentage terms from the high. Obviously I'm chatting about fib Retracements and not fib extensions.
The fib that starts from the bottom of wave 2 is a fib extension and not a retracement. It's the extension of the previous wave so it's giving you a rough idea where wave 3 could be headed.
Hope that makes sense
Remo

remo wrote:
Hi Remo, yes mine is the brown fib on jackozy`s chart. Why would you say mine is not a fib retracement or extension ? When i set my fibs they stay set, you and jackozy seem to keep moving yours up. Once you have plotted the first and second wave that should be it, the fibbo will either play out or fail. Cant say i have ever seen a fibbo start from the bottom of wave 2, so we learn something new every day.

I will have another look at your videos to see if i am missing something. KI.

Hi kI

Is your fibs plotted like the brown fib on jackozy chart??
If it is I have not seen it done like that in any text.
That's not a fib retracement or extension.
I think people are talking about different things here.
The way I'm showing it is the way all text books show it.

The main thing is if it works for you great . Keep using it.
But I'll stick to my traditional way as its worked for me for years.
It's good to have a different unique way so glad your sharing .
Remo

Jackozy wrote:
Jackozy, the chart you have just posted is perfect except you need to incorporate the 76.4 instead of the 78.6. You have now put a bear and bull fib on the same chart.

When applying a fib you can put one anywhere and you will find a target where something will reverse or trade up to. I do not believe i have been taught wrong, in fact quite the opposite.

When plotting a fibbo you need to trust in the method of how you use it, remember not eveything comes in 1-5 waves and A,B,C `s. Your system if required, should work through all of the timeframes.
Some of the fibbo placements that i have seen on here are so far out its untrue, so at a quick glance how do you know they are miles out ? Simple...the fib extensions run off the chart, folk need to keep things within a price range that is achievable within say 3 months.
So plotting a fibbo that gives the 161 extension as 17000 on the dow or 100% on 1.5000 EURUSD is not right.

If you are to use a long term fibbo eg monthly then use it to recognise important NO`s on the fibbo, for example i mentioned on the rocky board that the eurusd was about to bounce off of the 50% retracement on the monthly (the fibbo was taken from the year 2000) so it was a strong signal.

Also on the same monthly look where the 50% rebound went ,then turned...you guessed..the 23.6.
Now look at the monthly from the start of this year, put your 100at the bottom put your zero at the top....sorry no prizes for guessing where the price has peaked in the last 2 months yep 23.6.

KI.

FIB EXTENSIONS AND FIB RETRACEMENTS

Hi guys,

No image sorry guys but let me throw something in and i will post a chart later.
The posts form KI on fib extensions and retracements have hit a note with me.


1. The fib extension from the bottom of wave 1 is clear to see on all charts with regards to the targets of 161 (top of 3) and 261(top of 5) although doesn't always come off. Keep this on the chart!


2. When looking at historical data, put your fib retracement on the top of wave 3 to the bottom of wave-2. This will give you different targets for the retracement during wave 4. The 23fib retracement is very important here and is seems to be the first stalling point ...... there also seems to be mini waves all corresponding to roughly the same pips as the 23fib retracement on this.

This is also done from wave 2 also BUT..... the targets are very nearly the same as the fibs from the bottom of wave 1.


Cheers RMc

I can afford more time to this tonight hopefully - but I keep coming back to this fib problem, and I am wondering if there are things that I am not even aware of.

Before today - I thought this extension would have been correct. Jackozy, what is your take aswell? Remo?

I toook it from the high in May 2011 to the low in July 2012




The reason for the fib is I believe the low in July to be just that, the low. So I wanted to figure out what possible extensions we could hit. Turns out, on my extensions it has clearly fond the 38.2% on the retracement back up.

So, if that is wrong - im wondering what on earth I am doing lol

KI,

I've been doing some thinking and quite a bit of testing on this idea of "reverse" Fibs. Dare I say I think you may have been taught incorrectly? Please don't take offence - certainly none is intended as I'm always open to new ideas and methods which work and your stated track record is certainly extremely good. However....

Here's this EURUSD chart in close up with both your Fibs (brown) and the more traditionally drawn ones (red):




dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/EURUSDdaily30_10_12a.gif

As you can see, the traditional Fibs are even more accurate. I also looked back at GBPUSD's 4 pull backs you mentioned yesterday and it's the same there - the traditional method is slightly more accurate.

I'll continue to test this and keep everyone updated.

The really important thing that's come out of this, though, is your observation of the importance of the 78.6% or 23.6% Fibs rather than the 38.2 and 61.8% ones so thanks for bringing this to our attention.

This looks interesting from the 23.6 fibbo perspective. Draw your 100 fibbo from the top of 17/10/12 down to zero at the bottom of 11/10/12 on the daily. You will see how the price has pulled back to the 23.6 and held. I think this could go on a little run. Also look at the 4 hour chart, entries dont get much better than that. I would look at the 3000 area as a take proffit. I will add to a short position also at 3000. KI.

Thanks jackozy, i downloaded dropbox a while back but ran into a few walls, so closed it. At the time i was not bothered about posting charts, however now i feel it will benefit all if i post a few. Once i am back from hols i will get up to speed again with posting charts. KI.

KI, try using dropbox - it's a piece of cake and cloud based to accessible from anywhere. www.dropbox.com

gclark25 wrote:
Hi mate, a bull fib is wher the extension 161/261 etc rise when you plot the fibo. so on your first weekly chart you have put a bull fib on something that went downwards, so your target shows at 161 1.6000 or so. Which puts your 261 at a point my charts wont show LOL !!!!

I am not saying you cant put a bull fib on a downtrend because you can and you should, but it should only be done once you have rejection of price.

I used to have clip2net to post my charts up, but it fooked my computer up (dont know why) however if someone wants to recommend another site i can use to download charts and post them up i will post them up.I am happy to help and teach folk my way of trading, but you may have to undo some of the things you have learnt.

I think Remo has set up a cracking site and although i am still getting used to it, the word needs to spread on its potential. KI.

gclark25,

I think what KI means when he/she talks about bull and bear Fibs is shown here:




dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/EURUSDdaily30_10_12.gif

The brown Fib sequence is how we traditionally draw retracement Fibs ie from the bottom up to look for supports on the way down. KI refers to these as bear Fibs. In the discussion on the EWT/Fibs thread yesterday, KI talked about plotting the Fibs from the top down so that 0% is at the bottom and 100% at the top. I've plotted these in red. The key difference is that the 23.6% and 78.6% Fibs occur in slightly different places. KI maintains that in his/her method the 23.6% Fib is a critical and frequent reversal level.

Hope that helps.

PS I have to agree - there's too much going on in your charts for me and without the link to open them in a new window there's not enough resolution in chartsview to see them properly. Sorry.

Sorry to confuse, where i have written 3 entry targets..delete entry. these targets are to aim at if short from now. KI.

Hi KI,

Can you explain to me what you mean when you refer to Bull fib and bear fib?

I have looked at my fib placement, and I thought it was correct to take from recent high to recent low - which I have done on that chart?

Clarky, there is to much on those charts for me to take in. However the thing to note on the weekly is where the price is based on a bear fibbo.....it has stalled at the strong 23.6 (you have it as stalling at the 38.2 on your fibbo). Your fibbo`s are wrong.

We must now wait confirmation of the pullback (which looks to be wave 1-2) it looks like the best time to start trading long would be circa 2300 with the first target at 3168 2nd target 3874 and 3rd target 5000. That is a little way off yet though, first we must deal with the drop.

So now putting in a bull fib with the 100 at the top of the recent range circa 3170 and the zero at the bottom of the range circa 2030 you will give yourself 3 entry targets. The first will be at 50% the second at 38.2% and the third at 23.6.

Now remember all the above is based on the weekly. To fine tune your entry drop to the daily then the 4 hour (which should be your ultimate entry trigger).KI.

Here goes - here is my analysis of EurUsd at the moment.

please please PLEASE comment, whether its good or bad. We need more discussion and more feedback if this is going to work imo. Don't be afraid to say what you feel, whether its good, bad or indifferent, it all adds value to the discussion.

I'll start with the long term, then a closer up view of some fibs, then a daily view:

Please bear with the chart if at first you think there is alot going on - your eyes will eventually see what I do. Thanks.





So,basically what I want to show on this chart is the overall pattern the previous 7 years has formed. You can see this within the heavy blue channel lines. This is as clear as day imo, and has conformed to the trendlines religiously.

You will notice the bounce off the main support line in July 2012 - then the subsequent break of an intermediate downtrend to get it there (in line with an RSI break as confirmation). However it has now found some resistance at the 38.2 fib extension and has ranged there for 2 month.

Not now the RSI support trendline (green line) - I reckon we could look to test that pretty soon, which would be see us test the 50% fib extfrom the recent low-high(shown in next chart) and maybe even coincide with one of the horizontal supports aswell as the previous RSI trendline resistance (blue line on RSI)

WEEKLY CLOSE UP




What I want to show in this is the recent fib extension to determine where I think this will go if it does retrace before a potential move back up.
I would aim my attentions to the 50 or 61.8% fib extentions. This looks like it will coincide with the RSI support nicely, as well as the horizontal supports marked on the charts

DAILY VIEW



So a daily view of the Close up weekly view we just saw.
What I think this shows is the bearish momentum, indicated with the recent break of an intermediate trendline (thin blue line)on the 25th Oct, aswell as bearish RSI divergence.
I do think there may be an intermediate up move before we go to possibly test the 50 or 61.8% fib - either here, or at the 38.2% (i certainly think it will find short term support @ 12750 no matter what) - but ultimately I see us testing the 50%-61.8% fibs. It may - it may even test 12300 again coinciding with a major previous support, aswell as retesting the channel downtrend it broke out from.

SUMMARY

Short term - bearish, look for levels @ 12620, 12480 and maybe even 12300
medium to longer term - expect moves up towards the upper trendline between 14000-14300

ALTERNATIVELY

Short term it could just range in its current range of 12800-13175ish shown on a 4H chart

dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/eurusd26thoct.png

ive gone long on this due to trend line touch with a 40 point stop.
Its currently on the trend line




if it goes through then this could drop heavy so bear that in mind

Dyor
remo

Target 2805....adding to my initial entry on any 30-50 point pullbacks.KI.

I have traded EurUsd but lately have had a nibble at EurJpy which is very similar, anyway these are longer term trades so may not interest you.

Weekly dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/EUR%20JPY%20weekly%2024th%20Oct.htm

Daily dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/Eur%20Jpy%20Da...20-%2024th%20Oct.htm

I am also trying to trade it, short and selling into pullbacks. Is that correct terminology ? lol

Been trading this and would love to hear any comments?

I understand most people are from the UK so only trade GBP related pairs but I am sure there will be some who will trade EUR soon enough as the word spreads

I trade on 1min, 5min, 15min & 30min bars so very short term trends really.

Spidy