Interesting day for Gulf Keystone today. Not only has a higher low been confirmed, but it broke through to make a higher high (above 137.5p) with some gusto and on the highest up day volume since 3rd July 2012 when the SP moved nearly 50p in the day.161p still remains the key, however, so until there's a close above that level we can't be too confident about a new trend. This could still be the wave 4 up of wave C down. Another important level now is the breakout point after the higher low at 137.5p. A close below that would almost certainly point towards a new low below 126p.Finally, a long white candle (called a marubozu) is often followed by a retrace to half of its height, This falls at the 140p ish level which is just above the breakout point. Interesting times, but there's no need to panic. Even...

That followed through nicely this morning so I've closed my longs and taken a small short from 159.25p with a tight stop. I'll be moving it to break even soon.The key question now is: was that the initial move of a new up trend, or was it the wave 4 of C we've previously discussed. The most reliable way of testing that will be to see what happens at that 139/139.25p area as that's the 61.8% Fib of the move up from 126p. It's also close to that initial breakout level of 137.5pIf 139p holds then it adds weight to the possibility of a new uptrend; if it gets taken out then a final low below 126p is more likely IMHO. Original link...

Just thought I'd post up this short term 15 minute chart of GKP as it shows the possibility of a symmetrical triangle in play and it's about the right distance into the triangle to make a good break (the best place is about 2/3rds of the way into the pattern).The way to trade this pattern is in the direction of the breakout but be careful - triangles often have a small false breakout on the opposite side of the real break.I'd expect to see that RSI break out of it's trendline slightly earlier than the price if it's going to break upwards but that doesn't always happen. Longs could now have tight stops below 146.25p, shorts should have stops still above 161p as that's the stronger level and is nearby. Original link...

It seems pretty hard now to see this post-159.5p move as a bullish continuation pattern but a final wave 5 of C down was expected so perhaps we shouldn't be surprised.In fact, there are some interesting features to the recent price action. Firstly, the bounce from 140.5p reached the 78.6% Fib which is quite bullish as it would "normally" onlt reach the 61.8% Fib.Secondly, the projection of this move gives us an interesting target, namely 126p. This comes from the 161.8% extension of the first wave down projected from the top of the second. We can understand why there'd be a bounce off this level and that bounce has a projection to 137.5p, just as before.Beyond that it gets a bit unpredictable as 5th waves can do all sorts of things. The textbook projection (assuming of course that it all plays out as above) would be c. 119p where there...

I'll go into a bit of detail on this update even though it's a close up chart.First, the Fibs relate to the drop from 228p to 126.3p ie a move back to 228p would represent a 100% retrace of the move. The reason I've plotted these is to see how far up that move the bounce went. When plotted this way, the Fibs can point to resistance areas. Here we can see that the blue horizontal line from the 161p support was close to the 38.2% Fib so there was 2 levels of resistance - 161p and the Fib at 165p.What's interesting here is that a wave 4 (remember, my wave analysis suggests that this is wave 4 up of C down) most often retraces to around the 38.2% Fib which is exactly what's happened here so far so that adds weight to the wave 4 of C idea.The wave...