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GKP hourly 21/05/13

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It seems pretty hard now to see this post-159.5p move as a bullish continuation pattern but a final wave 5 of C down was expected so perhaps we shouldn't be surprised.

In fact, there are some interesting features to the recent price action. Firstly, the bounce from 140.5p reached the 78.6% Fib which is quite bullish as it would "normally" onlt reach the 61.8% Fib.

Secondly, the projection of this move gives us an interesting target, namely 126p. This comes from the 161.8% extension of the first wave down projected from the top of the second. We can understand why there'd be a bounce off this level and that bounce has a projection to 137.5p, just as before.

Beyond that it gets a bit unpredictable as 5th waves can do all sorts of things. The textbook projection (assuming of course that it all plays out as above) would be c. 119p where there is a support, but 5th waves can fail so it may not get that far. If the 3rd wave down of this move does go to 126p then that will be the extended wave so it's unlikely that the 5th will go further than 119p sp 87p would become unlikely.

All in all, this continues to play out almost perfectly and the downtrend's days look very limited from here barring something completely unforeseen.
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