It seems pretty hard now to see this post-159.5p move as a bullish continuation pattern but a final wave 5 of C down was expected so perhaps we shouldn't be surprised.In fact, there are some interesting features to the recent price action. Firstly, the bounce from 140.5p reached the 78.6% Fib which is quite bullish as it would "normally" onlt reach the 61.8% Fib.Secondly, the projection of this move gives us an interesting target, namely 126p. This comes from the 161.8% extension of the first wave down projected from the top of the second. We can understand why there'd be a bounce off this level and that bounce has a projection to 137.5p, just as before.Beyond that it gets a bit unpredictable as 5th waves can do all sorts of things. The textbook projection (assuming of course that it all plays out as above) would be c. 119p where there...

I'll go into a bit of detail on this update even though it's a close up chart.First, the Fibs relate to the drop from 228p to 126.3p ie a move back to 228p would represent a 100% retrace of the move. The reason I've plotted these is to see how far up that move the bounce went. When plotted this way, the Fibs can point to resistance areas. Here we can see that the blue horizontal line from the 161p support was close to the 38.2% Fib so there was 2 levels of resistance - 161p and the Fib at 165p.What's interesting here is that a wave 4 (remember, my wave analysis suggests that this is wave 4 up of C down) most often retraces to around the 38.2% Fib which is exactly what's happened here so far so that adds weight to the wave 4 of C idea.The wave...

San Leon Energy gave an early buy signal on Tuesday 7th when the RSI broke out  of its downtrend at the close. The SP closed at the day's high and then made a 123-low breakout above the previous high at 6.99p having formed a higher low.It fell back from the 7.76p resistance but still managed to close above the price downtrend which is bullish. Today has seen a backtest of that downtrend. This pattern could also be seen as an inverse head and shoulders.Resistances ahead are at 7.76p, 8.7p and 9.44p. Stops should be below the higher low of 5.8p for safety but a close above 7.76p should allow them to be moved to just below the 6.99p support.This was a great example of a number of technical plays coming together at the same time.  Original link...

I've decided to close my longs from 6.5p and 6.95p today at 8.2p, a little short of my target at 8.7p.My reason is that it appears to be firmly into a 5th wave up from the lows and I also have to take account of the spread and how quickly these penny shares can move. Basically, I see upside as very limited from here in the short term and would prefer to bank my profit and wait for a retrace.I still think it'll get to 8.7p on the ask side, but the spread may be quite wide at that level as often happens at a key resistance on AIM stocks. Original link...

This was a good example of how a 5th wave can be a bit unpredictable and fail to reach the target. Today's drop confirms the end of the initial move up though there should be a bounce off 7p as this was the intial breakout and will also be the backtest of the trendline break.What we're looking for here is a nice 3 wave move down. The question is: how far will it go? Normally after an initial move up after a long downtrend we'd expect something like a 61.8% retrace but the diagonal triangle nature of this rise, coupled with the failed 5th subwave in it allows for the possibility of a full 100% retrace so we need to expect somewhere between 6p and 4.6p as the target for this retrace. And there was a gap up on 19th April from the 5p close which didn't get properly filled...