A week on from the last chart update on here and it's been a very volatile ride.It fell short of it's target at 11.5p and then failed to hold the breakout test of 9.5p. News today has caused an extremely large trading range so those who didn't at least take some profit off on the rise to 11.p had a second, brief, chance to do so today.The key now is for this to hold the shorter term uptrend support at c. 7.6p. There's also a lot of support at 6.75p where there's been plenty of previous price action and the lower uptrend support lies. 11/11.5p has now been sold off twice and becomes a strong resistance and must be broken by close of play to signal higher prices.I managed to bank at 11.25p (profit taking on the rise), 10.86p and 9.81p having entered at 9.4p in expectation of that inverse...

There's a chance that Gulf Keystone Petroleum may finally be finding some support at the trendline from the 64p summer 2010 and 87p summer 2011 lows. Close tomorrow will determine whether there's a weekly hammer off this trendline.From an Elliott Wave point of view, it looks like 141p was the end of wave A, 260p the top of wave B and it may now be just entering wave 4 up of C down. If so then any rise should be capped by the 161p resistance (wave 1 of C low) before a final wave down which may, or may not, get truncated and end above yesterday's 127p low. Original link...

Interesting day for Gulf Keystone today. Not only has a higher low been confirmed, but it broke through to make a higher high (above 137.5p) with some gusto and on the highest up day volume since 3rd July 2012 when the SP moved nearly 50p in the day.161p still remains the key, however, so until there's a close above that level we can't be too confident about a new trend. This could still be the wave 4 up of wave C down. Another important level now is the breakout point after the higher low at 137.5p. A close below that would almost certainly point towards a new low below 126p.Finally, a long white candle (called a marubozu) is often followed by a retrace to half of its height, This falls at the 140p ish level which is just above the breakout point. Interesting times, but there's no need to panic. Even...

That followed through nicely this morning so I've closed my longs and taken a small short from 159.25p with a tight stop. I'll be moving it to break even soon.The key question now is: was that the initial move of a new up trend, or was it the wave 4 of C we've previously discussed. The most reliable way of testing that will be to see what happens at that 139/139.25p area as that's the 61.8% Fib of the move up from 126p. It's also close to that initial breakout level of 137.5pIf 139p holds then it adds weight to the possibility of a new uptrend; if it gets taken out then a final low below 126p is more likely IMHO. Original link...

Just thought I'd post up this short term 15 minute chart of GKP as it shows the possibility of a symmetrical triangle in play and it's about the right distance into the triangle to make a good break (the best place is about 2/3rds of the way into the pattern).The way to trade this pattern is in the direction of the breakout but be careful - triangles often have a small false breakout on the opposite side of the real break.I'd expect to see that RSI break out of it's trendline slightly earlier than the price if it's going to break upwards but that doesn't always happen. Longs could now have tight stops below 146.25p, shorts should have stops still above 161p as that's the stronger level and is nearby. Original link...