remo wrote:
Remo, many thanks for the charts and info.

I understand why you took the 1-2-3 low trade, on the daily basis.

Did you take the first trade,(based on your chart above) on the hourly? Was it a breakout of the consolidation? As attached chart?

Many thanks in advance.

Paitech wrote:
didn't i say I must have misread it.


anyway, the markets are pulling back.

Fear and Fomo bring out the same emotions in people.....i think we are seeing both of those in these markets!

The expectations of the market and the reality is way apart imvho....

Does look like the p/b has started....grabbed a short....lets see...
Looks like a race to the exits....and this should close down now imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Libero wrote:
Libero, if you read it, TF was surprised why the air lines were up.
Debt is a problem, but today the survival was more important, and hence easyjet up.
They would need to survive first and debt can be dealt with later on....

Paitech wrote:
Excuse me Paitech, I must have misread it...

The Dow thread, the markets, easyjet rising amongst others.... I figured you meant the markets are up because of easyjet

Anyway, I get what you mean - they've been given a life-line. Still, my position on DEBT stands.

Debt will weigh heavily once the eurphoria passes.

Libero, its about Easyjet. I read without that money, by june it would have been close the shop...
so eventhough its debt, that lets it carry on more....
Most business runs on Debt, not on full cash....

The Dow is very close to exiting bear market territory remarkably. 23640 is the target.

Trendfriend wrote:
Yep, I hear you loud and clear Trendfriend. I shorted both the FTSE and SPX (see entries in each respective threads, but I'm not hanging around - lots of retail investors missed the rally yesterday want to hold the bag today it seems).

Stay Safe!

Paitech wrote:
Not sure that's the reason the markets are flying - or why Easyjet is performing.

The money EasyJet have secured isn't revenue or profit or a lottery win. It's DEBT.

Debt either has to be paid back, defaulted on, or issued against bonds or equities - Any of these will have an adverse effect on the SharePrice.

For now, the market is euphoric so, they'll ride the ride - I'd say be cautious. and remember that old quote "It's the hope that kills ya".

This is the reason....

Easyjet confirmed last night that it had secured a £600 million loan from the Covid Corporate Financing Facility (CCFF), issued by HM Treasury and the Bank of England.

In addition the carrier has drawn down $500 million (£407 million) from its Revolving Credit Facility, raising cash reserves to around £2.3 billion.

The news came on the same day that Easyjet’s founder and largest shareholder Stelios Haji-Ioannou again called for the carrier’s £4.5 billion contract with Airbus to be cancelled, warning that failure to do so could see the airline run out of money “around August 2020, perhaps even earlier”.

Well this is almost bordering on insanity imvho...
Airlines whose planes are all grounded are up 25% today based on what exactly?

i'm so tempted here to short the dow....so i dusted the ig markets account down and put a couple of orders in put in with tight stops....
23811 with 150 pips stop

if that fails to hold then 24291 again with a 150 pip stop...

i'm also looking to short bp and ezj....and one or two others...
so lets see...

atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

Great post Jackozy (we've missed you man, it has been ages!)

the 25,240 on the dow looks very ominous; but we're talking about another 2000 point move before retracement; that's a hell of a bid bet for the markets to be making at a time where massive challenges are ahead.

As expected, the downtrend breakout came:


We must remember that really fast moves have no stability so counter moves will usually also be fast/strong.

Will be interesting to see what happens around the 25240 61.8% Fib level. Like FTSE, there's also a gap near this Fib.

Great Post (as usual Remo).

The markets are all about pain - and I gotta say (like yourself and any other trader), I've taken some pain. I had to!

Anyway, risky trade - but the lines are holding well (range bound) for quick scalps on the five mins.

I'm probably going to save the "proper" shorts for the FTSE and SPX, but will scalp the Dow every now and then (looking after the pennies).

There has been a 123 low on the Dow daily...
I’m currently long but it’s only for the short term as remember, bear markets last around 6-9 months minimum...and it’s no way over just yet....there is way to many bad news out there and America is in a bad place currently and very likely to fall once they realise how bad they are ...
Even if we have seen the worst of the virus in Europe it’s done the damage to the world economy so the effects will only be seen in the next few quarters so very doubtful that we have bottom just yet...
I’m currently long and will go short at the fibs...

Paitech it certainly seems like that way with some certain to bounce but stocks pulling away from the lows..
I too have been waiting for the Dow to touch circa 18000 before I dive in..

It may not happen?

However I think from an economic point of view the sh1t has yet to hit the fan..it may we’ll be another 4 to 8 weeks before lock downs are removed or loosened, and add it second wave of viruses, you looking at a fair bit of destruction, job losses around the world..

The 20% bounce in prices may we’ll still come down, at least I think and hope so..

Anybody else think Covid-19 was man made, an accident gone terribly wrong?

Stay safe,

According to me, the fear is getting lesser....and as I said before, most hit the lows ....
Missed BP in 220s,GEN,GKP all flying
I think banking share may give another closer to low chances....
Really short on funds and feeling gutted for lack of funding

I don’t know what will happen, what I do know, is today I have funds for shares, and they have gone sky high.

I was after some gems. (I did buy some long term shares, we call them that, after you buy them and they go down!!)

Sitting on my hands.

I hope Remo is right, otherwise

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...J7mDIgf+XSc4KQh73V8=

strong rally to start the week...
will the dow hold on to the gains this time?

all eyes on the 20 day ema line and the rsi...if both b/out and close above resistance then 24227 the 50 ema line may well be the target....

A lot of the the indicators are mixed....but above 22595 would be a higher high....and possibly a sign the the low is in!

Although this could still stay range bound below the 200 day ema line for some time....lets see...
still think it will fail here but wdik...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Horrible Jobs number (thoughts with familes accross the pond).

But the markets shrug it off (even though it's a sign of worse to come).



watching with care.

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...8bx+5HrXM5sT3X1GJlI=

you have this support from Dec 2018

dow - daily close up.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...8CxLnPXryWQT5r6tCLM=

no real pattern or logic in these markets....when you thin its going down it goes up and vice versa...
does seem to be retesting key levels and then moving down....

so more of a controlled fall rather than the free fall we had in the first move down...
the rsi is bang on resistance if it doe so up today...and we could well get a decent rally...
it does look like it will gap down from the futures...how big will the gap be??

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Ive following the updates, like all on here very much appreciate the superior collective knowledge.
I’ve been trading the dow over the last week using the minute charts fairly successfully just using support and resistance lines to short and buy. Surprised myself with 7 out 7 trades.

Nothing off great value just fish and chips stakes.

I think the way it’s behaving has probably made it look simple for a novice.

The spike at close wasn’t expected as the market knew of trump’s tweet earlier in the day, so not too sure markets are attributing the rise to that.

Anyway hoping it hits bottom quite soon...

Stay safe

The trendline held nicely but I doubt it will again. I think we're still in correction mode in the downtrend. I can see this getting near the 25000 mark before the next phase down which (imho) will take a fair bit longer. Speculation of course.

Trendfriend wrote:
Got it!

You're a Legend TrendFriend!

(alas, I'm not brave or braver - in fact when it comes trading, I'm both reckless and feckless!)

Yeah i was talking about the rising trendline the one you drew right at the top...

yeah!...i'm as good Remo...but only in hindsight!

anyway...zooming out still on the 5 min chart....this has been in this triangle all of this week...

my chart will be very different to yours as its market hours only...

dow - 5 min.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...SpdRMb3dQt5x6b/ZiLE=

the direction of breakout from the triangle should see a strong move in that direction...
the numbers change every 5 mins...

good luck....your a lot braver than me...

atb
trendfriend

Cheers TF,

scalping was the order of the day, but even 5 minutes can last a life time sometimes!

If today's low goes (it could go tomorrow - friday remember? - no one likes to hold), then I'd expect crazy moves to 18000 or thereabout, but not before a lot of shorts get burnt.

quick question: which line do you mean when you said "the rising trend line"? the top one of the three?

Also, do note that right now, it's struggling to break through the bottom of the three fork-like trendlines.

Lastly, regarding your chart, how I'd love to short that move, but I can't - I just can't. That one I'll leave to Remo!

(and of course you're a very good trader! )

its been hitting that t/line and coming down....so for scalping that was the line to short off....in hindsight off course....
in hindsight i'm a very good trader btw

this is what i think form a 5 min chart on advfn....

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...LXFhjINY0UAIp6vidhI=

i'm usually totally wrong....so lets see...
i do think this will close down imvho...if the low for today goes...
if it does rally the rising t/line on your chart should be target...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

No worries



any good?

The 5 min chart you posted below....can you try to draw a trend line across the tops please.....
Seems like a rising trend line.....

Only if you have min....

I have a look later myself...

Atb
Trendfriend.

This is really tough to trade / scalp....

All that's happening during today's session is, frankly, semi-informed gambling.

I'm trying to ride up / ride down tiny moves (what I call fish n' chip money), but it still difficult.

the mish-mash of trendlines *seem* at least for now, hold in some way or another - until they get blasted through in either direction.

be safe people.

p.s. why are these damned black lines appearing? IG need to get their act together.

new chart attached....

Trendfriend wrote:
Very true.

What success I had this morning, is being cut to shreds as I dipped a toe in (again, couldn't stay on the sidelines as long as I would have liked, not with all the volatility - but how big do you have to move your stops. It's absurd).

Might take a short position, IF IF IF i see a direction (obviously, not looking to hold for any sustained period).

Impossible to trade atm...happy I’m side stepping these markets

This is just silly tbh...
It will eventually close down imvho.... once it wipes all the bears out!

Atb
Trendfriend.

As the saying goes, "don't fight the FED"

longterm_view wrote:
10million new jobless claims in two weeks, and the markets wiped out the negative reaction.

Surely, this pump is short-lived - not convinced by the violent direction - I think I'll stay on the sidelines (for the next hour at least!)

The dow dropped by 350 points.

AdeMcG wrote:
destroyed it - 350 points wiped out in minutes.

wait, we've been here before!

Jobless claims higher than expected...what has that done to the Futures ??

Cut and paste by Ryan Detrick, CMT. I found this interesting.

Just remember, the ‘73/‘74 bear saw a 20% bounce.

‘01/‘02 bear had 22%, 25%, 24% and 24% rallies before ultimately falling 51%.

And the ‘08/‘09 bear saw a 27% rally before falling 56%.

Jackozy wrote:
Careful as a mouse, me.

A nice little relief rally (started with that big ol' candle at 8:45pm last night - The Fed maybe? I know, i.e. fact, they have currency & bond traders, but not sure about equities?) also, no circuit breakers at the end of a session, so this could have been a work-around. In any case... nice rally to scalp (hit and run, hit and run).

I've been watching the 5 min futures chart on and off over the last few weeks. If you're looking to scalp, you can see that short term 5 min trendlines hold farily frequently in the direction of the hourly trend.

Horizontal breakouts are quite often successfully backtested too (again, in the direction of the short term trend).

Got to be careful though.

Trendfriend wrote:
20,980 (or thereabouts) - i.e. the 23.6% Fib did put up a good fight - but the selling is unrelenting.

I'm not sure anything other than sitting on my hands is the best option right now! can't risk short term trade up (short term technicals) or down (trend).

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ubrz06JIt89c9U86Czo=

looking at the next support levels here for the dow.
short term on the daily. gap support at 19649. and then 18213.....

dow - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...+nZl0pItPwm2nCWO1yc=

A break below 18213....would open up the 15,000 area...multiple supports here from about 14700 to about 15370...
If we do go down to that area....it may well be the place we see another large relief rally imho...

lets see how we go...
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Test of downtrend line flagged last week so far playing out on Dow and FTSE. There was a bit of a battle between the bulls and bears at the Dow trendline last night but the bears won as it was sold into the close. Futures then continued to drop:

Dow:


FTSE:

What suprised me is the media and some professionals saying that we have hit the bottom already ...Surely they must realise we have never been in a situation like this and to say that we have hit the bottom just due to a bounce of 20% seems a bit naive. The fact of the matter is so many companies have laid off staff and loads of companies are going bust...on top of that you have most companies missing out on targets set for this year which means profit warnings...So there is no way we have seen a true bottom yet as it’s way to early to call a bear market bottom considering normal bear markets last around 6-9 months and this ain’t no normal bear market so these media fools are just that...fools...
The world economy is hit hard and it’s never been this bad so to think this small correction is over just baffles me....
It’s like they want people to lose money by encouraging everyone to jump on board so as they can get out themselves...
Don’t trust the media or any so called professional.....
This is where people have to do there own research and come to a conclusion on there own...
I trust in charts so will go by what the charts says for the long term..and right now we are below the 200 day moving average and that must rise to even consider a bull market...on top of that I would like to see higher highs on the daily time frames and a break above the new down trend line which ain’t formed properly yet....as it’s really early...
We are in a crisis like never before so I doubt that we have seen a true bottom...
Don’t go rushing back in a hurry as things could get cheaper still....
I’ve only put around 20% of capital back in and that’s even day traded a lot for quick gains...and some are with companies that I feel may find a cure for this virus so really ain’t in for the long term yet....
It’s really hard to call a bottom and I don’t see one this early...
Take care and do your own research..
Remo

The rally we have have seen in the dow from 18200 to 22550....which is approx 20%
I think its perfectly normal...and its way to early to get bullish here...eve if we do see a 1,2,3 low....the Dow always pushes people to the limits...in terms of ones view and Analysis....

Looking here now at the last bear market in 2008/2009
dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...eZs+bxrnSDfDiXUW/aE=

the market dropped about 55/60% form just above 14,000 to about 6500 for the low....
in between that drop i can see plenty of 20% rallies....

So careful not to fall in love with the upside just yet....a bit of patience could really pay dividends....
in terms buying into this market lower down imho....

lets see how it goes...
Nice short trade today Libero... just being honest here...really don't think you should include me with those legendary names in your last post!
could well be a h&s top Long term....was deffo a retest of the high...22550 area and the 20 day ema line today....and it failed... (so far anyway)...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Looks alike down trend is about to resume...
The 123 low did not materialise yet...still in play.....
Once it goes below the 2 point(21000) then it cancels out...and would mean the lows would be hit...

longterm_view wrote:
I'm a rookie, so will gladly give the floor to my betters (remo, trendfriend, jackozy, wavesurfer et al - sorry if i missed anyone else out!), but it does look like a H&S over that line sure.

Stay Safe.

Libero / TF

It looks like there is a H&S forming on the 1hr chart. (On iPhone so cant post a chart)

After an uptrend, so in the correct place.

Neckline is about 21775 I believe.

Perhaps somebody can confirm?

Trendfriend wrote:
No worries man, I figured it was 22550

Meanwhile, the scalps came good - particularly at the end....




Still, must keep sight of the big picture too. Not sure if we saw the bottom, maybe - I know that bear markets take a while to form, but! this was the quickest sell-off in history, so it's bound to be the quickest snap back off the bottom too.

Either way, we'll know, when we'll know!

Stay Safe, and Keep Trading Safely too - my ol' ticker can't take too much of this ultra-short-nip-in-nip-out-trading....

Sorry Libero....i was on my phone...i meant 22550 i must have fat fingers!

Here's a chart to show what i mean.
dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...2MxdMYYv6ZhqIuxxotI=

This has finally come down a tad today.....
I don't mind it going either way to be honest....if it goes up above 22550 for a 1,2,3 low as Remo has just posted below and above the 20 day ema line....then it just means i have been wrong....and 18200 may well have been the low after all...

I'll clean some egg off my face and then buy some stocks (for the longer term)

Having said that... could this still drop down for a lower low below 18200?
I think so....but wdik...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend