since the bearish breakdowns established within the major indices and also within the DOW JONES, it is showing up with some interesting price action at the moment, as the market is slightly oversold this can lead to some possible rallies firstly on the shorter term sooner or later, in this case, I detected the important levels and possible outcomes within the index to consider further destinies, for now the trend still remains to the downside however this can change when the index manages to show up with the right price action, till then we should not keep the established bearishness by side as the direction factly is still to the downside.

Looking at my chart you can watch this huge descending-channel-formation marked in blue, within this channel the index has build up a wave-count coherently following up to the downside, at the moment the index forms the major wave D in the wave-count which will run directly into strong resistance layers, firstly consisting of the falling upper boundary, the 100- as well as 200-EMA marked in black and also the horizontal resistance coming into the surface here, these all together forming a coherent and logical resistance cluster which is likely to be confirmed to the downside when touched, this mechanism will set up the final wave E.

When the index shows up with the most likely scenario forming the bearish wave E to the downside, it has the possibility given to recover which can be done in the blue back-up-cluster marked in my chart, where the end of wave E coming together with the lower boundary and the Fibonacci-support lying there, all together building the support from where a bounce can be done, in this case, it is from high importance that the index really bounces in this range because when the index moves swiftly below it and closes below this can invalidate the channel breakout which is not the most likely outcome for now however this scenario should not be underestimated.

Nice one WS,

Yep, I suspect the bounce will appear as a BTFD - and those caught higher up will use it to liquidate.

It's not the end of the markets by any means, but a healthy correction 10-20% for the Dow / S&P isn't a bad thing surely!

Will keep a look out for the numbers as ever.

Would defo prefer the Dow to dump into the close (26700-26600-26560 will do me!)

Hope you're keeping well.

26560/600... watch for close below on a daily basis, it will fall further but expect a bounce from below this area - next up will be 25000 - danger line. the bounce is not a buy/swing- scalps on long side is ok if thats your game (as the rug can be pulled anytime ) - but that will be an opportunity to re- load shorts. i will update later once we have found a short term and give bounce area targets for reloading shorts.

keep the swing short rolling, a close below the above number i will take some profit and leave a nice banker running, and re-short.

bang bang, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

rgds WS.

Apologies folks,

had hoped to put up more charts, but I'm always glad TrendFriend kicking major behind with some thought provoking charts too! (please don't stop TF!)

For now, as it's fashionable to post a dow chart when it's falling.....

does this look like a H&S formation to you good folks?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/u0g7fQBK/

High Resolution Image

WaveSurfer wrote:
Wait, didn't you say "the top is in" a few days ago! But, yeah, you're right it's all about Price Action.

WaveSurfer wrote:
I gotta say, Wave theory is way above my pay grade, but maybe you're right! All's i know, is that the markets are are tough (for me!)

WaveSurfer wrote:

My condolences man, I hope you and yours are doing better now, and I'm glad you're doing well!



WaveSurfer wrote:
Dow to 100,000! I'm getting in touch with my fund managers now!

p.s. Don't be a stranger dude, 10-15 years is a long time! Do stay in touch! we missed you.

Thanks, not really one for calling tops, i need to see more price action to determine if this is just a pullback or something bigger. - dow price juncture remain 26700 and 25k - these are important level dow must break n daily > weekly > monthly closes below - no break no lower.

Hence i keep saying its really about the Dow, as its this market along with Russ that remains corrective in structure, where as the SPX and Naz have somewhat diverged and think it may still have more upside left after this pullback - these are impulsive in nature and imp one trend up (3 completed, now in 4Pb, with 5th wave to come) left on both of these before a largest pullback. as for the SPX this could be the end of int 1 of major 3 of primary wave 3, and the pullback to come is a wave 2, whilst dow as things stand currently would be move back down to complete a wave 2 correction that started in march, of course if its start to impulse and make new yearly uptrend that may be a game changer as to whether a revist of march low is likely or not and forms a structure of leading/ending diagonal. the only bearish outlier i can see is this move being completion of a cycle, but for now that is just an outlier.

as to where i have been, i been in and out of the forum and been working away and juggling family life, bereavements which hit me really hard, so not had much time - as for the markets i have refined my setup even further - now i can go without trading for months and compensated by a few large trades (swings) when the time is right. this free up my time by focusing on my kids and work respectively.

should you not hear from me agian, then you will hear from me in 2030/35 when we are dow 100,000

Price is king & BTFD's

regards, WS.

Trendfriend wrote:
Hey TrendFriend, I hope you're keeping safe and well man! (always glad to see your charts and posts!) - Alas, i bottled shorting the Dow for anything meaningful (beyond a scalp). Equally, I did try a quick S&P (ES) trade, but with tight stops, i gave a bit back to the markets. So after all these years, I still trade with my finger on the trigger as I don't trust brokers to act on a stop / limit. (maybe that's just me!)

Waveman! good to see you dude, it's been too long - where have you been?

Nice chart - it made me think - the S&P (or ES rather), seems to have more gaps than the dow... it's not a biggy, but might be a good indicator of sequences on how this market may behave.

I'd say this though, I'll be extra cautious as you've got a mix of bullish retail and X-trillions of Fed protection & easing to pull this market up.

There's never one reason behind this latest decline (from yesterday), I mean one look at tesla's valuations and you'll think its insane, but there was also this:

www.ft.com/content/1746a3c7-3fa2-4db1-ac50-3bbe863f8908

Speculation in tech derivatives points to wild swings

Markets predict elevated volatility after burst of trading in call options on Apple and Tesla

It's an excellent article that nails it.

Here's hoping for more charts. Be Well All.

Great call Wavesurfer.....spot on with the top!
Hope your cleaning up these markets

this does look like it could get nasty!!

Libero....did you get a short in then?
i didn't trade this...been out for too long!

atb
trendfriend

The DOW could not push to new all time highs before some serious selling pressure stopped the music. The move down has some buyers concerned that we are about to take a beating but the trend up is still is tact. A move down through 27400 will change the tone dramatically and trigger another selloff but time will tell if new highs are still on the cards in the near term.

Not too much damage yet, expect the month of sept for markets to start rolling & churning- i.e lower lows and low highs, damage will come in oct. a daily close below the dotted line will give the 1st clue, if it does, then expect a bounce n drop.

Dow filled its gap now we have 2 below as targets for int C for now, dow still remains 3 corrective trends and remain in a bear.

1,618 ext dow hit today from lows.

Imo the top is in, needs to see more, support broken, bounce to be weak, etc but sept 03 2020 n sep 1929 rhymes.

1st time in a while - i am short.

Good luck

What a beast of a rally, this.

Sure, the Dow has been slow to the party, but it's going strong (I know, I know, wiser heads will tell me the fall is coming; let's see).

I thought about shorting it as the gap was filled, but I'm glad I didn't, as I would have been cut to ribbons.

watch that megaphone though!

(chart courtesy of Sven Henrich)

https://ibb.co/g6MxB7n

Stay Safe Out there folks, and in these insanely illogical markets.

DJI Index - Critical support and resistance on the Daily chart

The Index is currently attempting close above the critical support level at around 28134.70 in the Daily chart as we head towards the end of the Tuesday session.

The Index needs to remain above 28134.70 to continue to its next major target at 28842.20.

Major support at 28134.70, 27697.50, and 27421.55

Major resistance at 28404.95, 28842.20, 29112.45, and 29549.65

Spx 3428 +/- 13 points is a big number - watch it closely... if any place for a turn this the place - spx is looking impulsive now in confirm bull uptrend. ( if it's B then -4% or +1% of previous highs for an irregular is still valid) or else this is a start of a new bull with Wave 2 PB to follow.

dow is playing catching up - watch that gap - dow still looks corrective- 3 trends - could start to impulsive.

all eyes on dow now....

stay safe and trade well.

WS

With lines

Hi Inside informant - I got 28400, but your chart could be more accurate!

it's getting silly now isn't it. I mean for all the talk of the markets being forward thinking, then was this "forward thinking" everytime we had a decline? But more to the point, how can the markets be forward thinking if central banks (and to some extent) governments are pulling out all the stops to delay what will happen.

It's a strange world indeed!

Anyway, ready to go short this week - but as a note to self, I must start looking more closely at the S&P rather than the Dow which is too wild.

THAT GAP AT THE TOP IS GETTING FILLED!
IF THERE IS GOING TO BE A PROFITABLE DJI SHORT, IT IS AT 28402.9$!

Yep.... good point MM
Some nice charts Libero!
For these golden and death crossovers the strongest move comes in the build to the crossover imvho
It’s the same for individual stocks as well.....

Once the crossover happens you do often get a reversal....

I think the real economic impact is still come with all of this.
With furlough due to end soon.... can companies afford to keep staff?

Let’s see....for the Dow it will all depend how willing the fed is to come up more cash .

atb
Trendfriend

Look what happened when bearish death cross happened

Golden cross has formed on the DOW, this is a bullish scenario.

www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bullish-gold...ustrials-11596740412

Hey folks,

Hope you're keeping well.

I've been meaning to do some meaningful analysis on the markets - alas time is unforgiving.

Also been scalping every now and then - but still on the sidelines more - which is burning me up!

anyway, for the past few sessions, i've found that buying on the floor area (took the green line as a light house) has been working well.

buy at support / selling where ever the gut-risk feels like - until it no longer works - in either direction.

Anyway, not advice or anything as the usual disclaimers say, just putting it out there.


Dow Hourly

https://ibb.co/RNk8QXK

Better not, but who knows, Nasdaq going parabolic asking for bubble to burst, in the menatime we almost completed 5 waves move form March low, currently in final stages of extended wave 5, wealth redistribution into gold and silver in recent days, hmm who knows. Definitely bigger correction coming to correct whole cycle from March low, if that big thing is about to happen, then war with China could be on the cards as don't think covid could do that big damage at this stage

Could history repeat itself?

DOW breakout?

Double top

China brakeout and long term target at 22000, is it already leading the world?

dow-daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Vowbmjp4BUHv+DJ5I5A=

Looking at the daily chart here not for trading but for general direction....

Negative divergence on the rsi....combined with the island reversal gap still being intact....would suggest more weakness imvho....

could be argued this is having a breather after strong run form 18k to 27k....and there's no denying the US markets have been strong....so it may be a case of more sideways....imho...
break above 26400 could signal a fresh move higher....
below 24840 calls for more down....

good luck...
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Must find time this weekend to try and do a bit of detailed analysis - I dabbled in a few trades, and lost a couple (surprise surprise, going short! ). but will live to fight another day I hope!

For now, let me upload a "tweet" (is that it is?) which makes for interesting reading...

https://ibb.co/TkDXWMF

The DOW has had a surge, thanks to the jobs data.

DOW

J

great post Libero...Bravo with the trading! nice work...

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...taK4PIcgXE8r1SX+cnE=

that 50 day ema line is the key and the first text imvho...currently at 221....
need a technical event like a gap below....with the rsi bang on support and about to make a lower low...this needs to bounce soon!

below that a lower low would really set the cat among the pigeons!
plenty of gaps down below that which could do with getting filled...
i'm going to short below 221 during trading hours...with tight stops...risky because it bounced off that line the last time...

maybe we are going to see mr Powell turn up with more cash?

lets see!

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Trendfriend wrote:
scalping all the way for me - I'm not holding anything longer than 30mins!

This makes me a sidelines guy for the most part.

I think the floor (range rather than a line) has been artificially set by the powers that be, and it will take an almighty mass "I want to sell, give me my money!" call to shake this baby hard (as in sub-24000)

Not sure about a second wave in the USA. I think they are still in the first wave - the curve hasn't Delta'ed sufficiently to call time on the first wave.

It's just going and going and going - still dangerously high; and because they (like us!) tackled it badly from the start, it becomes impossible to keep people locked inside for the summer.


I like most folks, am just watching on tender hooks.

Still no sell signal imho.....Getting closer to a lower low..let’s see
It’s all going to depend on the second wave of the virus in US...

longterm_view wrote:
I'm here; but difficult to scalp and type.

looking for a short term reversal to the upside (a double bottom on the five minute charts)

but would like to see a healthy correction - again liking is one thing, whether it happens is another.

Massive down day today.

Is everybody on the beach?

really enjoy the inputs here - and great charts as usual!

You know, I stumbled on a chart recently - it's not trying to call the future, nor judge the madness of the moves these markets have been making.

Rather, it's simply a overnight sessions vs open market action of the S&P.

It is scary.

(attached)

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...8HDcF4oKNk9QYzFiI%3D

this closed bang on 2 key levels the 20 and 200 day ema lines....
will gap below today?

seems to be coming down albeit in a controlled way....
the rsi should give the clue here....want to see how it opens today.. if the rsi makes a lower low it could well be the signal to short imvho....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Well, i'm not so sure about it, ftse, nasdaq and france just broke above recent high, the rest might follow

DOW CHART

That was a crazy night for Dow, who trades it at at this time?, i think this up move can now be completed and down she goes, but i'm with you Trendfriend, only below recent low it will accelerate strongly. Dax managed to make new high and then collapsed which hints me an idea of this up move to be done, however dow and sp500 didn't hit its equal leg target hence i'm not sure.

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...eAEe2AsFbdMi0jz3Q%3D

well it looked like this was going to fly away.
As things stand the the gap from the island reversal is pretty much intact....and imvho at this moment it looks as we have completed the 1 and 2 points in a 1,2,3 high formation!

not trading this unless we move below 25,000.....as i think that is the bull/ bear line imvho...so lets see.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Well, it seems to be working so far,if she is about to turn higher again after this correction then equal legs target is at 25640 which is cooincydenting with 50% fib line,, i'll be looking for some reversal around this levels, but dow+fed and anything can happen

Trying to make my mind up, any idea

was expecting something like this, but it got confusing, can this still be valid?


something like this

the Fed said yesterday they would prop up even more...hence the 300 point swing late in the session (from 150 negative to 150 points positive).

More disconnected from the real world than anyone could imagine, but there you go...all normal...carry on

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...JuTzzsXlEu13XEy5HL8=

well i thought that open below 25000 would see a big down day....but this is the Dow....it rebounded strongly.
That's 3 big candles in the last 3 sessions....i don't whats going on there?....but something is happening!
As bullish as this looked today....since the high at 27580 the dow is still making l/lows and l/highs....

I think while above 25000 the bulls are back in charge...lets see how this goes...i'm only a bear below 25,000....

Trading this is tough in these sorts of markets and big moves both ways...i think IG should add another warning for the dow in addition to the 76% lose money....
"if you trade the Dow it could well take your face off"

atb. wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

4h path i'm looking for, if its about to turn lower in longer time frame, possible good short entry coming,

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...cnzFSjU9g0wvk+ngw+k=

the dows under real pressure continuing on from last week...

if it opens under 24956 (50 day ema line) the next target while below 25000 area would be 22800 imvho....and we have couple of gaps below 22800....

A big gap down today should provide the momentum trigger for a larger strong down move...
This is very much short the rallies atm....while below that 25,000 the lows open up here again in my opinion.

lets see

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Trendfriend wrote:
Well TF,

I was convinced it 1937-1939, but what's a few years between charting friends!

Now, pre-market - it looks like you've got your wish. We hit a strong support line (i call it a strong one because I drew the line ages ago it seems, and lo and behold, it bounces "near" there). at 24548.

Anyway, it's all about the closing prices I can hear you saying. So fingers crossed.

Yep thats the first part of the big crash which started in 1929....see the drop down to 200 then a big rally back up...before the real drop!!

Looks quite similar to now i think...

will history repeat itself?

for me atm....this needs to drop below 25000 with a technical event like a big gap down or a big strong down day for that island reversal to prove its the real deal.....that should provide the momentum trigger for further strong move down imvho....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Something to think about, while dow and sp500 got 5 waves down on 4h chart and some kind of rsi divergance


then other indices like ftse,dax,france made only 3 waves and more downside should fallow


then on daily time frame on this indices we've got inside bar


So 3 options here imo, consolidation in another inside bar forming triangle,or up she goes above inside bar, or down below inside bar,

Weekly Nasdaq chart with kind of shooting star



just my thoughts