you've gotta laugh....

today's market action looked like a ploy to really screw participants over.

my position closed at a loss - and yet, by session's end - I'd be in the money.

Sometimes, it seems like stops are the enemy - but they aren't. it's the dishonest particpants

(no hard feelings to those that pull the levers obviously - you make a deal with the devil, you deserve what you get - back to work, and tomorrow brings another oppertunity!)

Be well and stay safe folks.

There’s a long road ahead still. We will find out on the third week of November then as we wait to see if the vaccine can be approved or not.

Syrian Empire wrote:
I agree - initial excitement is overcooked - the vaccine won't have huge impact this winter and the long term damage to businesses will be done in the meantime.

Trendfriend wrote:
you're right.

my take - Regardless of who won, who one likes (I like neither - I only like the folks at ChartsView! ) - I don't think the media - most of which are owned by Billionaires and trade on exchanges - should declare a binding winner.

elections should be called by the Electors and the courts (if it comes to that).

Al Gore - whom I like - took 33 days to concede; the path to being better human beings in my humble opinion starts with eliminating double standards / hypocrisy etc....

On this vaccine news - as it settles in own minds - you do start to wonder. I mean didn't Trump talk and talk and talk about a vaccine coming in November? didn't he say, after the elections, they'll stop the negative talk.... prophetic words at his expense!

Rooseverlt (the elder) did say, there are no accidents in politics, everything is pre-planned.

My pension is being spanked as virtually all in Gold funds so I might be biased - This has all the Hallmark's of sell on News pump and dump - The vaccine is still months away and central governments are still going to need to print money to fund the economic damage already factored in... Still hoping for a Gold inflationary fueled rally into 2021

Trendfriend wrote:
...a cynic might think they withheld the news on purpose

strange thing is if this news came out on Monday last week.....we may have quite possibly seen a different result in the US election??

Paitech wrote:
No worries man, it happens (all the time! ) - scalped my fair share, so this was IG's revenge!

onwards and upwards!
Trendfriend wrote:
Likewise buddy, it happens man. It's not easy to take - but hey, I wasn't complaining when I made coin off the brokers, so I'm slowly learning to take both sides of the trade and trying to retain some balance.

On reflection, I take a hit approx once every decade, in 2000-01 as a very young man, then, I took a hit in 2010-2011, and now, 2020 it's another hit. I hope we're all still here in a decade, so I'm counting on you to tell me to stay away from 2030!

I'm not here to "get rich" of the market, but I want to protect my assets, given that we (the 99%) are at the end of dminishing fiat and secret inflation.




Maybe I'll just hand my portfolio to WaveSurfer to manage!

small short at 30020.
stop 150.....

probably be stopped out in the next mins!

...WS's call about a close below 26500 and then a pump - 3500 points in a bit more than week - now thats a pump!

Really sorry to hear that Libero....
I couldn't believe my eyes seeing FTSE up 5%....
Stay safe....

DOW is on to open with a 1500 point gap

ouch...

Me too!!
short at 26600 kicked in and duly out for 120 pips.....fortunately it was small...and stopped out before the big move up....Luckily i had short gold which more than covered it....so phew....

Sort of move that wipes accounts clean!
Sorry Libero...That's the risks of futures....

I think the the bear phase starts now imvho....WS did say 30,000 possible...
I think down from here imvho....possibly slowly and painfully.....but wdik!

so lets see...
atb
trendfriend

Ronmould wrote:
I'm sorry to hear that man. it's a real beast. I've gotten used to accepting that taking a hit is part and parcel of trading, but it still can be very frustrating, so i feel your pain so to speak.

markets are the ultimate reactionaries - imagine if they were put in charge of the "red button" (nukes) - the world would be over several times over.

I'm also on the receiving end of a spanking - had a massive stop on my short as was expecting volatility but ultimately downside.

Ronmould wrote:
Indeed Ron, here's a good article by Bloomberg on the subject:

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-...tions-in-large-study

But do remember that the market always gets ahead of itself, wiping out anyone in the other direction (I took a nice hit this morning!) - and not sure if there's a lesson here to be honest (beyond not trading at all!).

Stops are nearly pointless as they have be super wide during volatility. Now, I'm going to have spend the rest of the week chasing it

Not sure what to make of it from a charts perspective at the moment but from a new perspective the reality is that the vaccine isn't going to have a huge impact this winter. As even once approved and distributed availability is going to be scarce.

Paitech wrote:
I was Paitech - I opened a cheeky short today - and got spanked! (it had to happen right?)

It's a good lesson, but what is the lesson really? I mean it reminds me of Drunkenmiller's quote when he lost billions:

Hope no one is short here
Covid vaccine: First 'milestone' vaccine offers 90% protection

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54873105

Ronmould wrote:
I honestly don't know - this isn't is markets as we know it Ron!

...looks like we'll see 30K today whatever happens.

1000 pips in an hour - wow!

...question is now does today turn into a massive shooting star.

That spike........

That must have been crippling (I'll put my hands up and say, I got stung hard - as I opened a short - talk about rubbish timing!)

Hello Fellow traders and investors -

This move up should not really be a shock - see my post below, expect the unexpected pump, to near recent highs (LH), also close that small gap yesterday - notice how dow is pivoting in that gap range... also negative diver forming on on the hourly.

- still expect he market to move down- whilst those that keep changing their narratives, mine remains firm.

eventually would like to see dow hold 25000 or we see a move down to the march lows. if it can hold 25k - then this thing can become really bullish. so if you short, good time to take coin and hedge your short position.

an outlier is their is wedge forming now which could see a final move up to 30,000 dow before a final collapse.

trade well, keep taking coin and dont chase or you'll lose your pants. there will always be an entry

Trendfriend wrote:
Bravo to you good Sir!

Seriously man, I'm all frozen here - can't work these markets out!

short order in at 28600....with 150 point stop(for now).

lets see...will be the first trade here for a while.
atb
trendfriend

unrelenting rally....

(yeah, I missed it, doh! )

Too much analysis and dithering and not enough action on my part I must admit! It's just that the markets (Dow in this case!) look really extended - I'd hate to be holding the bag! but what do I know!

Actually i hadn't noticed that MI had flipped since last time I looked so that would put Biden in the lead.

Ronmould wrote:
The US system is a headache, as an amateur historian, I enjoyed learning about it, but I also learnt is that like any other system it is susceptible to all sorts of issues.

As it stands, Trumps leads and but also needs to hold that leads on GA, PA, NC - and take MI or Wisconsin, if he is to stay in the White House. The odds are against him, but so much to consider...

Now, on the dow - hell, I don't know anymore - side-stepping this baby, but can't say I got out clean over the past 3 days either!

It be could that there's a dump coming - and right now, the dumb money is being sucked in with all the Biden / Harris will save the world stuff (come on, neither side can or have done much!)

You've got to love the DOW, could take days or even weeks to work out who the president is, all with a pandemic reaching a critical point - still pumping


...I don't get why Biden is Favourite - if you look at the split on remaining college seats it looks like Trump is ahead to me.
but I don't really get the US system!

Trendfriend wrote:
great chart TF, the markets are still bouncing - they don't care anymore - about anything!

Now, election wise, Biden is the favourite, but it's not done just yet.

It's really weird one.

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...O4zRyHA8IIgGk6aPE%3D

Does seem that Trump will possibly be in for another term!
So we could well see decent rally on the back of that over the next few days....

However the Dow could well stay inside this channel that looks to be forming on the trading hours only chart.
So possibly 26600 for another lower high.....then back down to 26000 for lower low??

lets see...as always wdik..and if your trading this... Bravo!

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

updated DOW Chart

Ronmould wrote:
Glad to hear all's well with you buddy. yeah things are ok here too.

thank you for your reply - you did raise the old eyebrows with your 20K comment though! I mean anything is possible, but this much intervention by central planners, i can't see them giving up the fight in proping up prices just yet. As an amateur trader - obviously, i'd like see great action and 20k is great action!

lots of "indicators" are calling for further down side - though as I type, the Dow is clawing back some 230 points from the open - maybe a rally to sell into!

Anyhoo, looking to ride this move further - can't see anyone holding over the weekend (unless they are covering shorts!)

Will look to add more meaningful commentary later today - an update on my chart if you will - hopefully it will add a view!

Take Care Y'all.

I'm good thanks Lib - hope you and yours are too.

I expect the virus will feed wave C more than the election itself but on election day last time the DOW lost and regained over 5%...was thinking if we saw a similar hammer again it could mark the bottom although expect the recovery will be long and drawn out.

I have a little short from when the trend broke Monday with a big stop (just above Sept high) - I like the look of a double bottom with the March low but I'll be looking to close below 20K.

Ronmould wrote:
Hey Ron, hope you're well and keeping safe.

I don't know much about waves to be honest - where do you see Wave C heading?

Also, the election is a big factor (when the markets want it to be), but there's the small matter of rising cases and hospitalisations too, and resumption of trade wars et al....

But on the election itself, Biden is "tipped" to win (I'm not convinced - and i have noted early voting numbers). The senate remains a GIANT prize, and only 1/3 of the seats are up for grabs.


VIX and DXY time!

Libero wrote:
...I was pondering if we could see wave C play out before the election and then overnight between voting and results would see the bottom come in.

gaps

Hey folks,

Really good to see you all involved! (I do miss the old days of "speed-trading" via the chat room, but this will have to do for now! )

I've attached my daily take of the Dow - respecting the trendline and pointing out visible gaps (will they ever be filled?) - let's see!


Hig-Res Dow Chart

( www.tradingview.com/x/hFzWcUAO/ )

I've got a short bias only because of what's going on right now. I also have a sneaky "feeling" that Trump will a second term or Biden wins the White House, but Republicans will retain control of the senate. Both scenarios will annoy the markets for the short term I suspect. Who knows!

N.B. link to chart won't show the gaps discussed, only the trend-line.

I expect the gap to be filled up before we see more selling resume and revisit 26,724 area.

Please note that a rebound is possible after the gap area is filled up so watch for bullish or bearish signal before you take your next action. Sometimes, we let our initial wins and become a little over confident.

A look at the Day chart would tell you that the main trend line is still super bullish so this is a short term sell ONLY.

bang bang i shot the dow,. bang bang 27200 watch if below 27523....

its time to rock n roll. 3..2..

B top in imo . now back n fill ( chop chop) stimulus or no stimulus market will start downtrending.

Short the violent (un)expected Rallies. looking 28000 dow n 27600 n big bounce to recent lower highs maybe, then big dumpo.

chart to follow/.

waverider2 wrote:
I'm flattered waverider2, but I'm not convinced by it for now; not because of the vicious turnaround (by the Tweeter in Chief), but because - frustratingly - I'm now seeing an Inverse Head and Shoulders on the Dow.

(Link to chart for high res image - directly from Trading View, and an embedded image provided)

Dow 4 Hourly Chart


I should be enjoying the intra-day scalps thanks to the volatility right? well, normally I'd say bring it on! but - personally - not feeling it, so observing from the sidelines again.

tempted to trade from the ISA and SIPP accounts which is much worse, but for some reason, I'm way more risk averse than when trading CfDs etc... strange how the mind works!

Wishing you all the best of health and mental well being!

P.S. a shout-out to the man that started this beautiful community - REMO! where are you brother? we miss you! I hope you're well.

Libero- looks like your H&S might actually play out. I have been watching the charts recently and there has been divergences on various time charts, mainly the 4 hour charts

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...J93MvqsOjuao8SbSE%3D

Nice posts and charts Libero...

Looking at the daily....and i honestly don't have a clue here tbh....
It does look like its holding this rising channel from June....the top of which would coincide with the previous top.

Q is....Will it make a lower low? a double top? or blue skies?
So.... one of two things are going to happen.... it could go up....or it could go down!
Which makes my post and chart about as useful as one of Donald Trumps tweets!

I think as an occasional punter on the dow.....short from the double top would be tempting....especially if the rsi is still making a negative divergence...

good luck dow traders...you're all much braver than i'll ever be!

atb
trendfriend

Libero wrote:
The H&S Projected Pattern didn't play out. Markets are liking the "hopes and dreams" stuff today.

The lines displayed on the charts seem to be working (call it short term market memories!)

On the sidelines now.

One more after thought.....

Dow Fourly Chart - will it play out?

https://ibb.co/Mhg3CLK

in the spirit of WS's long term Dow 100,000, here's what a Billionaire thinks (attached)...

For now however, with a COVID-Trump and bad NFP numbers - the dow is down (let's carry on with the short term trend-trading).

The irony of the IBEX and FTSE being a "more accurate" view of where we're really at.

the US markets need get with the program, they are still in their first wave, with covidiots, deniers, liars and hucksters running around out of control.

Dow broke out of downward channel yesterday (just as I went short )..seems to have successfully backtested it as well....will be get stage 3 of the breakout?!

dow - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...gIfC0rzu/29HwPxmg1g=

great charts and calls guys....very interesting posts as always.

does look like things could get nasty
this really did need to make a higher high and fly away....

Could well be that it turns back around and the bulls fight back to make that hh....
on the flip side some key levels being tested like the 200 day ema line on the daily....

if those levels go...could we momentum really shift bearish and have part 2 of The Crash??

lets see...and please keep posting guys
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend