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TOPIC: DOW

DOW 24 Nov 2020 22:12 #51

  • Trendfriend
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dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...VpiO+QdkpTojYPyGiJU=

dax - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...4mNeT+KiENFT8PVdBag=

ftse - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...uG+KURipEUUu5T/Mxyk=

no stopping these markets.....standing in the way of bulls is dangerous.....
All 3 main indices showing bull flag consolidation.....and for the dow it looks like a higher high and breakout form the flag....could well be the start of the next leg up.... ;) ;)
careful if your short....maybe time to hedge....
if your long enjoy the rally...

crazy markets imho.... :ohmy: but it is what it is...
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)
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DOW 17 Nov 2020 16:05 #52

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Assume that's the pattern II was looking at the other day.

Pullback to fill the gap would seem likely, question is does it carry on or reverse from there and then breakout if the wedge is in play.
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DOW 17 Nov 2020 14:40 #53

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dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...zlTYYLcaEJGWfQZpM%3D

Vaccine news could well be largely priced in these markets now.....this failed to make and hold above a higher high...
I think this broadening triangle is in play imvho..... ;) ;)

lets see...
atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend :)
Last Edit: 17 Nov 2020 14:47 by Trendfriend.
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DOW 16 Nov 2020 12:52 #54

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Feels like a pump to test double top from recent sell off point...(also looks like batman....)
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DOW 16 Nov 2020 12:47 #55

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DOW 16 Nov 2020 12:23 #56

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Who was it that used to post about Batman ears formations?!....we have one on the DOW, i was thinking about it at the end of last week thinking the charts were looking like one and then this morning has put in the start of the second spike! :evil:
Attachments:
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DOW 13 Nov 2020 11:06 #57

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I suspect the Big Boys are behind the recent selldown in DJIA.

In Feb 20, prior to the sharp fall due to the Covid-19 pandemic, DJIA was at a high of 29,566 points. On 9 Nov 20, it hit the same level but failed to close above it.

We see a small gap up as well so if the price action is reversing, then it is likely to close this gap. It could then stage a rebound from here OR tumbled down further to 26,000 level where it is supported previously.

There lies a possibility that it continues its bullish move and our next target is around 32,000 level. For that to happen, we must first witness bullish candles candles above 29,566 level. So, watch this level tonight.......


DOW18.jpg
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DOW 12 Nov 2020 21:24 #58

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I"ve been watching the weekly candle, barring a massive rise tomorrow - pair it up with an island reversal over the weekend and things could be looking interesting.
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DOW 12 Nov 2020 18:06 #59

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dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...PFmgNZjPOSPq3kjuo%3D

While Fundamentally things may be looking great for the markets.... with the Vaccine due soon and the huge rally to a new high...

Purely from a technical perspective i think warning bells are ringing imvho... :whistle: ;)

second lower low on the rsi....so negative divergence x2 on the both the last two peaks!
With US stock valuations sky high.....at the very least we should get some kind of p/b imho...quite possibly towards 26900....or maybe the low 26000's....

lets see...decent down day today...more to come i think.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)
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DOW 10 Nov 2020 21:00 #60

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I spent about an hour trying to work out what wave we were in now and decided it was best to give up and leave it for a few days.

...couldn't decide if we're in wave 3 now (with Mar -Sept move being 1) or if this is an anding diagonal...in which case we're in 3 of 5 before a dump?!

Either way it put me off so I decided to leave it for the day and hope a nice drop overnight gave us an island reversal to start the day off tomorrow :)
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DOW 10 Nov 2020 20:37 #61

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Hello everyone....
How are you all today?
Seems very quiet today
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DOW 10 Nov 2020 00:34 #62

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dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...dKAtzZXaRQe7A6qQVlk=

the news today clearly pulled the rug from under the bulls feet.....totally unexpected.

As things stand looking at the daily chart....huge gap up....28947 (the red line) is the closet support.
Will that level hold??....resistance now become support??

Huge negative rsi divergence currently and that was a very clear and strong rejection just shy of 30,000.
Bit of a dance around situation..as .this rally comes after lower low so wouldn't be a surprise if today's move turns out to be a bull trap... :evil: :whistle:

i think this should go lower....but wdik.

lets see...
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 23:22 #63

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you've gotta laugh....

today's market action looked like a ploy to really screw participants over.

my position closed at a loss - and yet, by session's end - I'd be in the money.

Sometimes, it seems like stops are the enemy - but they aren't. it's the dishonest particpants :evil:

(no hard feelings to those that pull the levers obviously - you make a deal with the devil, you deserve what you get - back to work, and tomorrow brings another oppertunity!)

Be well and stay safe folks.
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 14:30 #64

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There’s a long road ahead still. We will find out on the third week of November then as we wait to see if the vaccine can be approved or not.
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 14:13 #65

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Syrian Empire wrote:
My pension is being spanked as virtually all in Gold funds so I might be biased - This has all the Hallmark's of sell on News pump and dump - The vaccine is still months away and central governments are still going to need to print money to fund the economic damage already factored in... Still hoping for a Gold inflationary fueled rally into 2021

I agree - initial excitement is overcooked - the vaccine won't have huge impact this winter and the long term damage to businesses will be done in the meantime.
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 14:11 #66

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Trendfriend wrote:
strange thing is if this news came out on Monday last week.....we may have quite possibly seen a different result in the US election??

you're right.

my take - Regardless of who won, who one likes (I like neither - I only like the folks at ChartsView! :P ) - I don't think the media - most of which are owned by Billionaires and trade on exchanges - should declare a binding winner.

elections should be called by the Electors and the courts (if it comes to that).

Al Gore - whom I like - took 33 days to concede; the path to being better human beings in my humble opinion starts with eliminating double standards / hypocrisy etc....

On this vaccine news - as it settles in own minds - you do start to wonder. I mean didn't Trump talk and talk and talk about a vaccine coming in November? didn't he say, after the elections, they'll stop the negative talk.... prophetic words at his expense!

Rooseverlt (the elder) did say, there are no accidents in politics, everything is pre-planned.
Last Edit: 09 Nov 2020 14:13 by Libero.
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 14:03 #67

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My pension is being spanked as virtually all in Gold funds so I might be biased - This has all the Hallmark's of sell on News pump and dump - The vaccine is still months away and central governments are still going to need to print money to fund the economic damage already factored in... Still hoping for a Gold inflationary fueled rally into 2021
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 13:56 #68

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Trendfriend wrote:
strange thing is if this news came out on Monday last week.....we may have quite possibly seen a different result in the US election??

...a cynic might think they withheld the news on purpose :P
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 13:53 #69

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strange thing is if this news came out on Monday last week.....we may have quite possibly seen a different result in the US election??
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 13:50 #70

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Paitech wrote:
Really sorry to hear that Libero....
I couldn't believe my eyes seeing FTSE up 5%....
Stay safe....

No worries man, it happens (all the time! :blink: ) - scalped my fair share, so this was IG's revenge! :evil:

onwards and upwards!
Trendfriend wrote:
ouch... :oops:

Me too!!
short at 26600 kicked in and duly out for 120 pips.....fortunately it was small...and stopped out before the big move up....Luckily i had short gold which more than covered it....so phew....

Sort of move that wipes accounts clean!
Sorry Libero...That's the risks of futures.... :ohmy:

I think the the bear phase starts now imvho....WS did say 30,000 possible...
I think down from here imvho....possibly slowly and painfully.....but wdik!

so lets see...
atb
trendfriend

Likewise buddy, it happens man. It's not easy to take - but hey, I wasn't complaining when I made coin off the brokers, so I'm slowly learning to take both sides of the trade and trying to retain some balance.

On reflection, I take a hit approx once every decade, in 2000-01 as a very young man, then, I took a hit in 2010-2011, and now, 2020 it's another hit. I hope we're all still here in a decade, so I'm counting on you to tell me to stay away from 2030! :evil: :S

I'm not here to "get rich" of the market, but I want to protect my assets, given that we (the 99%) are at the end of dminishing fiat and secret inflation. :( :)




Maybe I'll just hand my portfolio to WaveSurfer to manage! :P
Last Edit: 09 Nov 2020 13:52 by Libero.
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 13:48 #71

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small short at 30020.
stop 150.....

probably be stopped out in the next mins! :unsure:
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 13:48 #72

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...WS's call about a close below 26500 and then a pump - 3500 points in a bit more than week - now thats a pump!
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 13:41 #73

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Really sorry to hear that Libero....
I couldn't believe my eyes seeing FTSE up 5%....
Stay safe....
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 13:29 #74

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DOW is on to open with a 1500 point gap :silly:
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 13:27 #75

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ouch... :oops:

Me too!!
short at 26600 kicked in and duly out for 120 pips.....fortunately it was small...and stopped out before the big move up....Luckily i had short gold which more than covered it....so phew....

Sort of move that wipes accounts clean!
Sorry Libero...That's the risks of futures.... :ohmy:

I think the the bear phase starts now imvho....WS did say 30,000 possible...
I think down from here imvho....possibly slowly and painfully.....but wdik!

so lets see...
atb
trendfriend
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 13:25 #76

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Ronmould wrote:
I'm also on the receiving end of a spanking - had a massive stop on my short as was expecting volatility but ultimately downside.

I'm sorry to hear that man. it's a real beast. I've gotten used to accepting that taking a hit is part and parcel of trading, but it still can be very frustrating, so i feel your pain so to speak.

markets are the ultimate reactionaries - imagine if they were put in charge of the "red button" (nukes) - the world would be over several times over.
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 13:22 #77

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I'm also on the receiving end of a spanking - had a massive stop on my short as was expecting volatility but ultimately downside.
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 13:20 #78

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Ronmould wrote:
Not sure what to make of it from a charts perspective at the moment but from a new perspective the reality is that the vaccine isn't going to have a huge impact this winter. As even once approved and distributed availability is going to be scarce.

Indeed Ron, here's a good article by Bloomberg on the subject:

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-...tions-in-large-study

But do remember that the market always gets ahead of itself, wiping out anyone in the other direction (I took a nice hit this morning!) - and not sure if there's a lesson here to be honest (beyond not trading at all!).

Stops are nearly pointless as they have be super wide during volatility. Now, I'm going to have spend the rest of the week chasing it :silly: :unsure: :ohmy: :angry:
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 13:16 #79

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Not sure what to make of it from a charts perspective at the moment but from a new perspective the reality is that the vaccine isn't going to have a huge impact this winter. As even once approved and distributed availability is going to be scarce.
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 12:52 #80

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Paitech wrote:
Hope no one is short here
Covid vaccine: First 'milestone' vaccine offers 90% protection

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54873105

I was Paitech - I opened a cheeky short today - and got spanked! (it had to happen right?)

It's a good lesson, but what is the lesson really? I mean it reminds me of Drunkenmiller's quote when he lost billions:
You asked me what I learned. I didn’t learn anything. I already knew that I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basket case and couldn’t help myself. So, maybe I learned not to do it again, but I already knew that.
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 12:40 #81

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Hope no one is short here
Covid vaccine: First 'milestone' vaccine offers 90% protection

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54873105
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 12:34 #82

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Ronmould wrote:
1000 pips in an hour - wow!

...question is now does today turn into a massive shooting star.

I honestly don't know - this isn't is markets as we know it Ron!
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 12:16 #83

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...looks like we'll see 30K today whatever happens.
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 12:11 #84

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1000 pips in an hour - wow!

...question is now does today turn into a massive shooting star.
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DOW 09 Nov 2020 12:10 #85

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That spike........

That must have been crippling (I'll put my hands up and say, I got stung hard - as I opened a short - talk about rubbish timing!)

:ohmy:
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DOW 06 Nov 2020 11:54 #86

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Capture.PNG

Hello Fellow traders and investors -

This move up should not really be a shock - see my post below, expect the unexpected pump, to near recent highs (LH), also close that small gap yesterday - notice how dow is pivoting in that gap range... also negative diver forming on on the hourly.

- still expect he market to move down- whilst those that keep changing their narratives, mine remains firm.

eventually would like to see dow hold 25000 or we see a move down to the march lows. if it can hold 25k - then this thing can become really bullish. so if you short, good time to take coin and hedge your short position.

an outlier is their is wedge forming now which could see a final move up to 30,000 dow before a final collapse.

trade well, keep taking coin and dont chase or you'll lose your pants. there will always be an entry ;-)
Last Edit: 06 Nov 2020 12:21 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 05 Nov 2020 17:19 #87

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Trendfriend wrote:
short order in at 28600....with 150 point stop(for now). :whistle:

lets see...will be the first trade here for a while.
atb
trendfriend

Bravo to you good Sir!

Seriously man, I'm all frozen here - can't work these markets out!
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DOW 05 Nov 2020 15:55 #88

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short order in at 28600....with 150 point stop(for now). :whistle:

lets see...will be the first trade here for a while.
atb
trendfriend
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DOW 05 Nov 2020 15:27 #89

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unrelenting rally....

(yeah, I missed it, doh! :whistle: )

Too much analysis and dithering and not enough action on my part I must admit! It's just that the markets (Dow in this case!) look really extended - I'd hate to be holding the bag! but what do I know!
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DOW 04 Nov 2020 16:24 #90

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Actually i hadn't noticed that MI had flipped since last time I looked so that would put Biden in the lead.
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DOW 04 Nov 2020 15:53 #91

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Ronmould wrote:
You've got to love the DOW, could take days or even weeks to work out who the president is, all with a pandemic reaching a critical point - still pumping :)


...I don't get why Biden is Favourite - if you look at the split on remaining college seats it looks like Trump is ahead to me.
but I don't really get the US system!

The US system is a headache, as an amateur historian, I enjoyed learning about it, but I also learnt is that like any other system it is susceptible to all sorts of issues.

As it stands, Trumps leads and but also needs to hold that leads on GA, PA, NC - and take MI or Wisconsin, if he is to stay in the White House. The odds are against him, but so much to consider...

Now, on the dow - hell, I don't know anymore - side-stepping this baby, but can't say I got out clean over the past 3 days either!

It be could that there's a dump coming - and right now, the dumb money is being sucked in with all the Biden / Harris will save the world stuff (come on, neither side can or have done much!)
Last Edit: 04 Nov 2020 15:57 by Libero.
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DOW 04 Nov 2020 15:16 #92

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You've got to love the DOW, could take days or even weeks to work out who the president is, all with a pandemic reaching a critical point - still pumping :)


...I don't get why Biden is Favourite - if you look at the split on remaining college seats it looks like Trump is ahead to me.
but I don't really get the US system!
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DOW 04 Nov 2020 15:01 #93

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Trendfriend wrote:
dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...O4zRyHA8IIgGk6aPE%3D

Does seem that Trump will possibly be in for another term! :whistle:
So we could well see decent rally on the back of that over the next few days....

However the Dow could well stay inside this channel that looks to be forming on the trading hours only chart.
So possibly 26600 for another lower high.....then back down to 26000 for lower low??

lets see...as always wdik..and if your trading this... Bravo! :P

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

great chart TF, the markets are still bouncing - they don't care anymore - about anything! :evil:

Now, election wise, Biden is the favourite, but it's not done just yet.

It's really weird one.
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DOW 03 Nov 2020 15:00 #94

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dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...O4zRyHA8IIgGk6aPE%3D

Does seem that Trump will possibly be in for another term! :whistle:
So we could well see decent rally on the back of that over the next few days....

However the Dow could well stay inside this channel that looks to be forming on the trading hours only chart.
So possibly 26600 for another lower high.....then back down to 26000 for lower low??

lets see...as always wdik..and if your trading this... Bravo! :P

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend
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DOW 02 Nov 2020 07:21 #95

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updated DOW Chart


dow17.jpg
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DOW 29 Oct 2020 13:56 #96

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Ronmould wrote:
I'm good thanks Lib - hope you and yours are too.

I expect the virus will feed wave C more than the election itself but on election day last time the DOW lost and regained over 5%...was thinking if we saw a similar hammer again it could mark the bottom although expect the recovery will be long and drawn out.

I have a little short from when the trend broke Monday with a big stop (just above Sept high) - I like the look of a double bottom with the March low but I'll be looking to close below 20K.

Glad to hear all's well with you buddy. yeah things are ok here too. :)

thank you for your reply - you did raise the old eyebrows with your 20K comment though! :woohoo: I mean anything is possible, but this much intervention by central planners, i can't see them giving up the fight in proping up prices just yet. As an amateur trader - obviously, i'd like see great action and 20k is great action! :evil:

lots of "indicators" are calling for further down side - though as I type, the Dow is clawing back some 230 points from the open - maybe a rally to sell into! B)

Anyhoo, looking to ride this move further - can't see anyone holding over the weekend (unless they are covering shorts!)

Will look to add more meaningful commentary later today - an update on my chart if you will - hopefully it will add a view!

Take Care Y'all.
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DOW 28 Oct 2020 13:12 #97

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I'm good thanks Lib - hope you and yours are too.

I expect the virus will feed wave C more than the election itself but on election day last time the DOW lost and regained over 5%...was thinking if we saw a similar hammer again it could mark the bottom although expect the recovery will be long and drawn out.

I have a little short from when the trend broke Monday with a big stop (just above Sept high) - I like the look of a double bottom with the March low but I'll be looking to close below 20K.
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DOW 28 Oct 2020 12:19 #98

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Ronmould wrote:
Libero wrote:
Hey folks,

I've got a short bias only because of what's going on right now. I also have a sneaky "feeling" that Trump will a second term or Biden wins the White House, but Republicans will retain control of the senate. Both scenarios will annoy the markets for the short term I suspect. Who knows!

N.B. link to chart won't show the gaps discussed, only the trend-line.

...I was pondering if we could see wave C play out before the election and then overnight between voting and results would see the bottom come in.

Hey Ron, hope you're well and keeping safe.

I don't know much about waves to be honest - where do you see Wave C heading?

Also, the election is a big factor (when the markets want it to be), but there's the small matter of rising cases and hospitalisations too, and resumption of trade wars et al....

But on the election itself, Biden is "tipped" to win (I'm not convinced - and i have noted early voting numbers). The senate remains a GIANT prize, and only 1/3 of the seats are up for grabs.


VIX and DXY time!
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DOW 28 Oct 2020 11:59 #99

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Libero wrote:
Hey folks,

I've got a short bias only because of what's going on right now. I also have a sneaky "feeling" that Trump will a second term or Biden wins the White House, but Republicans will retain control of the senate. Both scenarios will annoy the markets for the short term I suspect. Who knows!

N.B. link to chart won't show the gaps discussed, only the trend-line.

...I was pondering if we could see wave C play out before the election and then overnight between voting and results would see the bottom come in.
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DOW 28 Oct 2020 07:13 #100

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gaps


dow16.jpg
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