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TOPIC: DOW

DOW 05 Jun 2020 14:01 #201

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Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, says the US unemployment rate “mind-blowing number”:

The US unemployment rate has shocked everyone because the number was much lower than the market expectation. Speculators were whispering for 20%.

This a mind-blowing number and shows that the economy is improving. Things are not as bad as many thought. This data, if it is a true reflection of the economy, is likely to speed up the recovery for the US economy.
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DOW 05 Jun 2020 14:01 #202

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AdeMcG wrote:
anyone else think the statisticians have got numbers mixed up on the Jobless count? :O

something is weird.

but hey, what do i know - trade what we see.

in any case, let's see the 27-handle approach sooner.
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DOW 05 Jun 2020 13:47 #203

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anyone else think the statisticians have got numbers mixed up on the Jobless count? :O
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DOW 05 Jun 2020 09:25 #204

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Inside Informant wrote:
I've noticed the bad job numbers have been ignored. Investors only focusing on re-opening of the economy.

Indeed, but opening this economy won't be like a switch - too much disruption, to many cogs in the supply chain decimated.

and while the Tories are trying to coerce the "ordinary" kids back to school, I don't see Eton & the top schools being open?!?

And of course, there's the matter of the second wave - which may or may not come (obviously, I hope it doesn't come). The market will of course ignore it, but it will end up taking more people out of the workforce.

I don't know' obviously I'm ranting, but more about the seemingly stacked decks from the powers that be, rather than a desire to make a buck.

I wish you the very best in getting that second chance - maybe at 22,500 as well as 24,000. :woohoo:
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DOW 05 Jun 2020 09:19 #205

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I've noticed the bad job numbers have been ignored. Investors only focusing on re-opening of the economy.
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DOW 05 Jun 2020 09:17 #206

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Hopefully when it hit 27000 it will go down to 24000 so we can get a second chance :unsure:


DOW5.png
Last Edit: 05 Jun 2020 09:18 by Inside Informant.
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DOW 05 Jun 2020 09:12 #207

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Indeed Inside Informant.

It has beaten the 200 DMA in overnight trading, so 27175 looks there for the taking.

Not sure the jobs number or anything is going to change things.

I'm tempted to scalp again, but why risk losing what I've stressed for!? :woohoo:

Good luck in any case folks!
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DOW 05 Jun 2020 07:20 #208

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27000 target still intact. Should happen by next week
dow4.png
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DOW 04 Jun 2020 21:05 #209

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I'm not touching this....

It's too dangerous now! :woohoo:

we've seen some strange closes of late - tonight was another 100+ points in a few minutes after a relatively down day.

Some folks are doing something somewhere, and i'm not going to play. :evil:
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DOW 29 May 2020 14:05 #210

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thanks Inside...corrected now :)
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DOW 29 May 2020 13:43 #211

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It looks like the chart you posted is for DISH and not the DOWJ :)
Last Edit: 29 May 2020 13:44 by Inside Informant.
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DOW 29 May 2020 13:37 #212

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dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...PPVd+0LwHi+5r4XFzbI=

not a perfect touch and move down from the 200 day ema line...but a clear rejection....so far anyway...

lets see how it closes today :whistle:

atb. wdik, dyor,
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Last Edit: 29 May 2020 14:05 by Trendfriend.
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DOW 28 May 2020 20:29 #213

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As the first move up was looking rather obvious in terms of wave count, then current structure is unclear for me, I can not recognize the degree of this move, my proposed structure is like on the chart below, but it can be also wave 1 of 3, only time will tell i suspect.
Screenshot_20200528-201713_IGTrading.jpg


There are voices saying its only going up so the rich can get out before another move down. A lot of sources are now turned bullish on indices, and we could speculate it could indicate this is about to turn. Another thing on my mind is telling me, that the move from 2009 was grand cycle wave 1 of 3 and we now starting wave 3 of 3 of the same grand cycle.Another idea is that its going up so the next move down even if go 30%, it won't look so savage on the chart. Also in terms of time, wave 2 of grand cycle which lasted 9years(2000-2009) and wave 4(proposed now by ewt should take similar time, so in this situation for next several years we should expect rather sideways move then resuming trend up. Some people saying about big triangle?.Just my thoughts, pls dyor
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Last Edit: 28 May 2020 20:39 by madmaxx.
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DOW 28 May 2020 19:46 #214

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have to agree with your take below Libero....
The lows are now a distant memory....the only way we may those numbers again is we have some kind of serious second wave of the virus....hopefully we don't..... :)

in the mean time a 10% or so p/b on profit taking after a strong rally looks more likely?

as i type this to me imvho looks set for a decent dump going into the last hour....which is relief for my (underwater)short :huh:

atb
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DOW 28 May 2020 15:40 #215

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you're tempting me to quit the sunshine (and work), and join you on the trading floor TF! :woohoo:

I'm just going to watch for now, but I wonder, with this much liquidity (the Fed and market) I can't see the market re-testing the march lows.

Oh, I still think (on balance), we'll get a nice pull-back, and some stocks - some- will fall again, and hard, but the "lows" index wise have probably arrived for now. (remember, i'm a rookie - I'm a casual trader, not an elite etc...)

The liquidity vs solvency argument is an idealistic one, and not may folks are interested in that (with much regret).

The market is getting a pass right now, poor earnings, poor accounting, poor GDP, high jobless count, more defaults, more people dying even - the market just keeps on going up. However, much in the same way we have decent pull-backs, in 2011, 2016, 2018 etc... we'll get one again before the year is out I reckon. The Dow may fall to that 22-handle you mentioned in your recent chart.


Personally, in light of poor bond returns, poor savings, and a mistrust of individual stocks, I'm only ever likely to trade indices to try to beat inflation.

Wishing you all the best of luck - and good health above all else.
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DOW 28 May 2020 14:51 #216

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first trade in this for a while....
short at 563....stop above today's high at 25850. may well cut a far earlier if it looks to be rallying :whistle:


i think the 200 day is step too far...and the bears may see an opp to come in here...so a p/b before higher again imvho....but wdik..
lets see...

atb
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DOW 28 May 2020 09:18 #217

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Bravo if you have been trading this... B)
really is great work...

if you did sidestep these markets...then you still beat 76% of IG clients! ;)

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...H9F0k4FVofK5rd/1Bms=

looks like this will gap up above the 200 day ema line today :ohmy:
lets see where it opens....if retreats...may well fall back to 22600 area imho....
if it gaps up and above then? new highs?

looking back in hindsight....maybe it was obvious the fed would rescue the markets....especially with Trump at the helm...
its all he's got left...the US economy, high employment and the rallying stock market....
with the first two in the dumps now....he needs the markets to boast about something....with elections looming..

well now i know the Fed can save bear markets....pump pump and more pump!! :whistle:

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)
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DOW 27 May 2020 20:44 #218

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longterm_view wrote:
Well, looking at the massive rally, I have played this terribly. :sick:

I’m not loosing any, but I’m not making anything either.

I’ve been sitting on my hands so long now, I don’t think they will work. :whistle:

Don't sweat it man.

Capital Preservation is Key (and you'll always get a chance in any market).

Moreover, wha's going on here is just freaky. The market loves to move when it's closed, but either sells off, consolidates, or adds a topping DURING market hours. That is freaky. where's the volume?

No structure or foundation, let the Dow hit 50,000 and the S&P 5,000. it only means that the real world is gonna suck even more.

As I type this, the market is "adding a topping" some 500 points on the dow if you bought the dip at 25,000 at 4pm. Again, I don't know what to make of it, and when there's uncertainty, i'd rather sit it out. It's not my money anyway!


Lastly, I'll leave you with this, I've been nipping in and out, doing ok (tiny amounts here and there - totalled up looks ok); but at what price? I'm working longer hours to make up for "lost" time, I'm not eating properly, I'm not working out as much, I'm not even enjoying the garden much during this glorious spring.

I'm slowing down to a couple of trades here and there (very early in the morning usually!), but in my humble view - all of this is overrated. Time is King, not money :)
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DOW 27 May 2020 19:45 #219

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Well, looking at the massive rally, I have played this terribly. :sick:

I’m not loosing any, but I’m not making anything either.

I’ve been sitting on my hands so long now, I don’t think they will work. :whistle:
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DOW 27 May 2020 18:58 #220

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Daily Battle lines:

https://ibb.co/mt3XH97

Dow Daily


The five minute shows the battle on the 61% fib line more closely:


https://ibb.co/wSF1jTD

Dow 5-min
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Last Edit: 27 May 2020 19:00 by Libero.
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DOW 27 May 2020 08:27 #221

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Hi Inside Informant,

As was discuseed, this trade was likely to be on - for how long I don't know.

I did take a short nibble (very!) early doors @25,257.7 this morning, but I've actually reached the point of exhaustion of nipping in and out for a scalp here and there due to my mistrust of the markets.

It's getting silly where the overnight action (the fed? blackrock as their nominees? I don't know) is just becoming too much of a factor.

Consider the bank-holiday (sunday evening to tuesday am), the SPX Futures moved some 2% up in what? a 10% volume - with the markets closed (whatever happened to buy/sell, supply/demand, etc etc etc)

That simply vindicates my view of not holding anything no matter how tempting.

Another factor is that experts (including ours) are conflicted about what's happening - and if my betters are conflicted, what chance do i have.

So, I'm nipping in and out even less, sure, this means less fish n chips, but I get to keep my hard earned cash in my pocket for another day :)
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DOW 27 May 2020 08:03 #222

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fibs
dow3.png
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DOW 21 May 2020 16:05 #223

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dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...mCErZRWRdfC3KM158%3D

not perfectly a double top but close enough....
as they say "when you see a double top....you sell a double top"

dax - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...CukWmQ3okBH3J4b9k%3D

similar on the Dax... ;)
certainly seems to be strong resistance above 24700.....on the Dow

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)
Last Edit: 21 May 2020 16:07 by Trendfriend.
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DOW 20 May 2020 23:52 #224

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remo wrote:


Look at the clear head and shoulders pattern forming....
One to keep an eye on...


The head and shoulders formation has been cancelled as it’s broken above the shoulder and looking to test the highs again...
The trade was valid but it moved down real quickly and then bounced just as quick...It did not manage to finish below the critical level for a few days...Thats why it’s important for a confirmation to hold..





This is starting to look bullish again and if it takes out the recent high 24904 then it’s likely to move 2000 points higher and target the 78.2 fib level...So a target to 27000.....
So one to watch for new longs above the recent high

If 61.8 fib is taken out then there is a good chance that it will recover the full 100%..
Due to all the manipulation going on it seem bear markets can be stopped...lol...
The best part is, my moderna shares seems to be the cause for the recent rally in the markets... :cheer:
The charts are looking bullish again so can only go by that..,
But this market is very risky as any bad news on the virus and the down trend will resume so got to be ready for that as well...
We are not out of the woods just yet....
I’m currently long but will change to shorts if I see any weakness below 24450...
Information Purposes Only, Do Your Own Research
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Last Edit: 21 May 2020 00:05 by remo.
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DOW 20 May 2020 09:50 #225

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FIBS
DOW2.png
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DOW 20 May 2020 09:37 #226

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Range Bound


DOW.png
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DOW 19 May 2020 08:38 #227

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dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...K/sSJhZAAdI/fhBeJdU=

huge bullish gap up above the 20 and 50 day ema line has really pulled the rug form under the bears feet.
this looked set for a big drop last week, but every time we get a few down days....the fed seem come in and rescue these markets! :whistle:
we do have a serious disconnect between the real world and the markets imho :silly:

This being the dow...expect the unexpected and the bears should make a come back....
24764 for a double top? or a test of the 200 day ema line before a new leg lower...towards 22000.
maybe inside of this new broadening triangle?

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend
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DOW 19 May 2020 08:28 #228

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FIBS FOR DOW

R1 24821.20
R2 25772.22
R3 27311.59
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DOW 19 May 2020 06:40 #229

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Expecting Dow to exceed .61.8 fib retracement levels, spx to hit a min 3000-3050 level before a major pullback commences specifically for swing trade, watch the 200ma. Until then chop chop up. Short squeeze rallies.
Last Edit: 19 May 2020 06:48 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 18 May 2020 14:42 #230

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It's never a straight forward. As I see it, it's playing out I'm (and I'm sure others too!) expecting the bulls to climb to 25,200.

Once 25,200 is hit and properly tested, then we can truly say that we've seen the back of the dtop or dare I say, if there's a worthwhile pullback. For now, we're on track to this target with the Dow at 24,450 as I type. So, perhaps another 750 points to go.

I'm scalping, and resting, scalping and resting - I can't afford to hold any position for too long.

Once 25,200 (or near enough) approaches, i'll start taking positions longer than a few minutes! :P

But for now, forward thinking and all, I'm still cautious - the retail investor is piling in, and I don't wanna be that guy! :evil:
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DOW 18 May 2020 14:00 #231

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Paul Schatz, the president of Heritage Capital, said the Dow could hit 30,000 points by 2021 and 40,000 by 2023 as the U.S. economy recovers over the longer term.

“To bet against the U.S. economy and consumer over the long-term is a loser’s game,” Schatz said in a first quarter note to clients.

“I firmly believe we will see Dow 30,000 in 2021 with Dow 40,000 coming by 2023. Once we get over this massive hurdle, there will be too many things working in favor to derail that train when it gets going.”

Markets push higher as Moderna reports positive vaccine results
Optimism that a vaccine to combat Covid-19 will soon be produced is also driving the markets higher today.

DOW futures looking good aswell up 700. Starting to open long positions. I don't see this crashing, all the bad news is built in.
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DOW 15 May 2020 13:43 #232

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As far as I was concerned, we broke the trendline, of the head & shoulders, tested it today (not in market hours though) and now is the start of the next leg down. We had A and B, now for C.

I was expecting, past the low of March.

Remo is the expert, a potential target would be great? :whistle:

My bet, I had a go. :dry:

The 61.8% fib, is exactly at horizontal support. 15,293.

So between 15,000-16,000. This will be combined with everybody panicking and wanting out of shares, as it's dropped so much, and then we'll start to move up again.
Attachments:
Last Edit: 15 May 2020 13:51 by longterm_view. Reason: Chart attached.
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DOW 14 May 2020 22:14 #233

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remo wrote:


Look at the clear head and shoulders pattern forming....
One to keep an eye on...


Head and shoulders still intact?
Is this heading for another leg down ?
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DOW 12 May 2020 21:47 #234

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Look at the clear head and shoulders pattern forming....
One to keep an eye on...
Information Purposes Only, Do Your Own Research
remo
Last Edit: 12 May 2020 21:48 by remo.
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DOW 09 May 2020 11:06 #235

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here's the 2nd chart of the notice black box

this is a cash chart - so accomdate futures moves, as that when stop killers come out to play.

Dow_Daily1.PNG
Last Edit: 09 May 2020 11:07 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 09 May 2020 11:00 #236

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nice move up and imo coming into completion, then expecting choppy sideways move down (not a fast waterfall that was seen in the move down from highs) to retest the lows to complete a Flat correction - probably sometime in Aug2020. Dow is KEY.

hope all well and stay safe folks !
WS


Dow_Daily.PNG
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DOW 08 May 2020 20:35 #237

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Anyone got the latest chart?
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DOW 04 May 2020 18:49 #238

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dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...IFrbD70BzraZiSe3d8w=

be interesting to see how this closes imvho....
second gap down today this time below the 20 day ema line....but will it close below or rally and close the gap!!

the rsi is still holding trendline support and the neutral 50 level....

really is bulls vs bears tug of war....today could well decide who wins the fight for the next leg imvho....
this has rallied up to retest the 20 day ema line today just below 23600....and failed.... :whistle:

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)
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DOW 04 May 2020 15:32 #239

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madmaxx wrote:
Hi, since there is 5 waves move up, i think it could do double correction or even go to new highs(it would make no sense but we live in strange world so who knows), just an idea
Screenshot_20200502-193604_IGTrading.jpg

Madmaxx,

good to see you man! the ol' gang is coming back one by one :cheer:

let's hope CT, RedChilly, WaveSurfer, Greville and the gang stop by! :)

On the Dow, yep, two down days and this session looks under attack - it's not pretty, but it's a trader's dream.
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DOW 04 May 2020 14:50 #240

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Has the 20 day and 50 day moving average just crossed over, suggesting a bearish market move?
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DOW 02 May 2020 19:42 #241

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Hi, since there is 5 waves move up, i think it could do double correction or even go to new highs(it would make no sense but we live in strange world so who knows), just an idea
Screenshot_20200502-193604_IGTrading.jpg
madmaxx
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DOW 01 May 2020 15:34 #242

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dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...vezBOD%2Fxk2mzwM4%3D

gapped below the trendline and the 50 day ema line :evil: which is about as as bearish a signal you can get imvho....
that should provide the momentum trigger for more down imho....

rsi is just about holding on for now....
the bear setup is here....if this doesn't drop now....and rallies back up....then the bears are pretty much done for imvho...

lets see...it does seem the markets have suddenly realised whats going on in the world!
its not going to a quick V shaped recovery by any means in my opinion... :whistle:

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)
Last Edit: 01 May 2020 15:35 by Trendfriend.
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DOW 30 Apr 2020 14:24 #243

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remo wrote:
I checked back in history on my IG Chart....seems the original 61.8 fib level was around 25260 area....
Over time since I’ve drawn that fib level seems to have moved on its own...It needed adjustment .......I wonder if there was a lot of traders like me that drew the lines and never adjusted it... Hence why it dropped from that level.......
Some thing to ponder over in the future...
So basically I was very lucky with that short trade......dam.....lol...

Maybe it's IG ;)

with the usual "Data is Indicative" catch all clause.
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DOW 30 Apr 2020 14:10 #244

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I checked back in history on my IG Chart....seems the original 61.8 fib level was around 25260 area....
Over time since I’ve drawn that fib level seems to have moved on its own...It needed adjustment .......I wonder if there was a lot of traders like me that drew the lines and never adjusted it... Hence why it dropped from that level.......
Some thing to ponder over in the future...
So basically I was very lucky with that short trade......dam.....lol...
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DOW 30 Apr 2020 12:20 #245

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Umm,,,,,,those were the levels I had drawn ages ago,,,,,seems like levels have changed on ig....kind of confused.....lol....as I placed my order ages ago and I suspect loads of others as well...
So seems like ig have adjusted chart....but funny how that level worked on a first attempt....

On my metastock the level to watch is 25261.......that’s the 61.8 fib level....
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DOW 30 Apr 2020 12:14 #246

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This was the Dow , look how this hit the 61.8 fib line perfectly and dropped during the night....Shows you the strength of that level on a first attempt....
The 61.8 fib level was at 24894.........the down went as high as 24903.....,Then dropped.......
The power of the fibs in full action there....easy trade...
the real question is will this hit this level during market hours...
Ive already gone short from that level and may add to short if it hits again but kinda risky as it’s a second attempt...That’s the problem with 24 hour markets as it confuses things...
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DOW 30 Apr 2020 07:44 #247

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dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...rCsGJA4ejCKfJK5ec%3D

another nice rally yesterday!
the rsi has come up to test a resistance level and if this breaks out....there should be no stopping the upside momentum imvho...

The 200 day ema line would be the next target....but tbh honest this could well hit the previous highs pretty quickly if it breaks out from here!

the question will then be "was this down move a bear market"?

bear markets are usually brutal....think of the bear market we have just seen in crude oil ;) that's how bear markets are imho...
bear markets should make investors regret they ever heard of the stock market...this started off being brutal with a big sharp move down...but now its running away back up! :whistle:
Which would again in my opinion this was a overdone correction....and not a bear market...

Either this makes it way back down....or i would say the "can has just been kicked down the road"... :ohmy: because historically we do get a bear market every 10 years or there about....

Someone i follow was saying the next bear market should be around 2023! and not now...

Or maybe this is the new type of Fed style bear market we will get now? :lol:

questions...questions and more questions...
anyone know the answers?
lets see how we go...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend :)
Last Edit: 30 Apr 2020 07:45 by Trendfriend.
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DOW 29 Apr 2020 10:23 #248

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The markets eh? The final frontier in some people's eyes :P

They said it's "forward looking", but I'm looking at a new new new new normal here, and I don't see full jets, packed cinemas and cruise ships just yet. So, who then decides what timeframes the markets look to?

Is it all the companies vying for a vaccine? Is it the lack of chatter about "what if" (as in, what if a second wave is coming? what if the vaccine is bringing with it 2nd order issues? what if this heralds a new "era" in uncontrollable outbreaks, and souring trade relations on top of global nationalism?

(oh, forgot to mention, dire FORWARD GDP, dire S&P forward earnings too) :S

The markets, right now, don't care one bit; "trade what you see" is a message I frequently hear and see, and that's cool, but I'm gonna hold for long.

TrendFriend - great chart again, and it could be a crazy correction, but I'd go with your earlier assertion that it's not done yet - not because I want to believe etc... but because forward-thinking or not, the market has no real structure, the only thing that's true out of all of this is: "Don't Fight the Fed".

The Fed doesn't need to buy equities directly (they don't), but they can buy the debts of companies, they can buy ETFs, they can create an environment where money has no place to go other than into stocks. All this means, a big bounce - but not without (bigger) risks of its own.

Longterm_view - I'm watching the 61.8 line like a hawk, and remember, the move to the 50ma was built on low volumes; again where's the structure - are the market internals sound? We'll see I guess! :unsure:

Remo (and Jackozy too if he's reading this!) - would love to see Bull / Bear cases some time - I might give it a try myself over the weekend.

Be Safe folks!
Last Edit: 29 Apr 2020 10:24 by Libero.
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DOW 28 Apr 2020 23:57 #249

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dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...wLLgYifR3uAv4nm0U%3D

this keeps on going up and up and up! :whistle:

Something does seem to happen around this 50 day ema line... :ohmy:
second time we had a p/b from that area....

The 200 day ema line is also key imho....technically in a down trend while below that feature ;)

the 50 day ema line is at 23997....the 20 day ema is 23353.
If i draw a trend channel as in my chart...then in between we have the trendline....
so this hasn't run away as far as we think from these key levels.....and i still think a substantial down move should take place here.....quite possibly even a lower low....

If it doesn't then i will clean some egg of my face... :lol:
perhaps more importantly if this does runaway higher from here....i would question if this was a bear market at all??!!
or just a strong correction?

lets see what this does first! :whistle:

atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend
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DOW 28 Apr 2020 21:09 #250

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Dropped at the end, but still held the 50ma I believe.

Only the 61.8 fib at around 25220, to hold this back.

If not, I should have bought. :sick:
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