16052 big gun

16514* Super wavism* > 16485 > *373/1* > if it cant recover = 16052 area to watch... (312,240,191/174)

no break 495 > 514 on any bounce/rallies - no higher period.

cant access chat today ?

cheers WS...

The bears are in control here at the moment.
The main trendline (black in the chart) broken.
The 200 day ema broken.

Its not quite over for the bulls yet though.
we still have another trendline (blue in the chart), and this is also at the bottom of a falling channel (red) which could provide support. So two supports around the 16500 level.
This is the longer term chart.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

For tomorrow, the important number to watch is 16500/16510 level imo.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

If we open below 16500, go short. (wait for 16490 to go)
If we open above 16500, this is worth a long as i think at the very least we will test the 200 day ema @ 16591. Or maybe the main trendline @ around 16750 (rising daily).

So a small rise, to test the important levels that have been broken, followed by a bigger fall.
This takes no prisoners, so stops are a must, and must be moved up fairly quickly to protect capital.
This is best traded during market hours only, a lot of games out of hours with this imo.

At the very least this is worth keeping a eye on, as its dictates the whole market imo.
Good luck for the week ahead folks, ATB.
Trendfriend.

i do indeed, sorry typo. the 200 day @ 16591, is vital here.

Thanks charts

Hope you mean 16591 not 15591.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI
Look out for 15591, the 200 day on the Dow. should the next support.

This had held the 200 day(bar some bear trap some small breakdowns) for a long time.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

If that level breaks down, and we spend 4/5 days below it, i think i'm right in saying the whole market is due a big coreection imho, and we should all turn into big grizzly Bears!
Regards,
Trendfriend.

Nice patient trading trend friend.

Long @ 16672.

Broke below, but bounced back nicely
Stop moved to profit

Regards,
Trendfriend.

You'd have to go back to Aug 2011 to find price action like the past three sessions (DOW)

And that was the resumption of the bulls after a big correction. This time, it might be the start of a correction after a big rally. It's all in the price-action folks.




Price Action wild swings...

Exhibit A:



Exhibit B:



Just sayin...

(might be something, might be nothing, but where's the harm in disclosure eh!)

The level to go long here today is 16672. If it gets to this level. For a trendline bounce, with a 25 point stop.

This treated me well yesterday so gonna take this trade again today.
This may break below, as testing same level again today. So i'm going watch this closely, if bounces of the trendline and comes back again to the trendline, i will close the trade, as its likely to break down imo.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

Regards,
trendfriend

Nice, perfect bounce of the trendline.
@17665.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...9Hc=&symbol=L%5EOCDO

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...A%3D&symbol=L%5EOCDO

Should go on from here.
Regards,
Trendfriend

The best place to short for today is ..
16853 with a 40 point stop during market hours only..
This is half way up yesterdays candle.

This trend line bounced off last time but the fact that its come back tells me its likely to break and head towards the main trend line. So the bears maybe in control soon so keep an eye out


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow8thoct2014.png

Quite a big fall here today, the Dow is now trading near some important technical levels.
Firstly we have a couple of potential trades on.
The first is of the trendline @ 16766 (rising daily), with a tight stop, 20 points, and first attempt only imho.
If this fails it could be heading to the 200 day @ 15585.

This is a vitally important level, if this support goes, we could be heading a lot lower.
We got a nice bounce off the 200 day, in early Aug. This set a important technical level to watch imho.
At the moment we are still in bull mode here, however the Dow is near some important levels imho.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

This is a close up.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

Regards,
Trendfriend.

I'd probably be a bit more cautious and only entertain new longs above 17149, being the last swing high prior to the lower low from yesterday.Nice pin bar on the 4H from yesterday.

Cheers,
M.

Closed @ 17077.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

This looks to be in a triangle formation atm.
Worth trading on the break either way, so for tommorow the important numbers are, 17080 on the upside breakout, and 16935 for the support channel, 16935 is also the where the 50 day ema is, and its bounced from this level a few times now. I will trade this only at those two levels.
Long @ 16935 or long @ 17080.
If it breaks below 16935, then wait for a retest, and short imo.
A RSI breakout may give a clue which it will go.

As always with the dow, stops are your best friend, and move b/e quickly imho.

Regards,
trendfriend.

Well done TF - worked nicely from the look of it! Hats off for your live posting prior to the event - never easy on the indices!

Long @ 16940 here, as per below trade plan.

I'm going to go long @ 16937, if we get to that level,on a first attampt basis, we have two supports at this level, the 50 day, and support from the last drop to this price.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

This shows the 50 day ema is important, as it does bounce quite often from here, and a fall below usaully results in a bigger fall on most occasions.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

i will keep my stop tight, 15 points only, and move it up quickly

Regards,
trendfriend.

Just taken updata,so here is the p&f for DOW.

BW

number for dow today: how price react to this will guide whether this thing goes much much higher or is in the process of topping short term.

17038 > 17062 > 17072 not to be messed with, 17083 "bull / bear line" - should dow get abv 17083 and hold - short term target can be 17157


a breach of 17038 > 16962 and 921 for now. a break below 921 then watch out.

happy trading...

WS

This is looking very interesting, it also shows this is a good time, to be extra cautious, with any long and short positions ATM.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

The dow is in a tight range, of about 150 points.
It looks like a bull flag, and could still break upwards, i still think it will, catching a lot of shorters napping.

However, we have a slight bearish div, and rsi on resistance, which are reversal signals.
While this is in the range, and with the 20 and 50 day providing support, i favour a move up.
However, it could also break down from here, and it has before, right? lets wait and see.
imho, enter trades with extra caution atm.

Regards,
trendfriend.

Having a looking at a chart of the Dow, don't normally trade the Dow, but i think i'm going to give it a go here.
Firstly this is in a nice uptrend channel.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

A closer look at the current action, it looks like this is forming a bull flag formation, so building up strength for the next leg up quite possibly.
if it breaks up from the bull flag (which is what i think will happen).
We should see a move the size of the pole, so about 600 points approx, which would take us to the top of the channel.
A break below, could well see a move back to the bottom trendline, or at least a consolidation in the range of the channel.
You can see it better in this chart.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI
The numbers to watch are 17158 on the upside, and 16980 (ish) on the downside.
I intend to trade this, only if it breaks to the upside.
I may be miles off the mark here, as i don't normally do the Dow any comments would be welcome.
Best Regards,
Trendfriend.

This was a perfect trade.
This should be a free trade now.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow10thjuly2014.png

Possible long from first attempt of short term trendline at 16822. Im using 40 points stop.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow9thjuly2014.png

Presently cuddling the hourly trend line of the past 3 three weeks. Where next?? Bounce off the trend and support lines or diving to the next support???

The charts are in the order of hourly, 4 hourly, daily and weekly.

Good morning all, hope you are well keeping well. Been very busy lately that largely why I haven't been around much.
I was looking at the DOW charts last night and wonder if we have now seen the top for this first half of 2014.








Have a good day, dyor...

This is building out nicely. Normally i would short at resistance but this index has been hovering around the major resistance for a few days now so shorting may be risky. Im gonna go long about 5 pips above the resistance level with a 40 point stop during market hours only. My long entry is at 16636.
An early signal may come in the form of the RSI trendline break giving you a possible tip that this may go higher so worth keeping an eye on that.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow9thmay2014.png

I was asked recently about the Big Picture looking ahead on the US indices. This is something many of us are gearing up for but timescales remain uncertain.

Sooner or later the bull run from 2009 lows will end and that ought to conclude Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle Wave 3. That should bring quite a crash in the form of Cycle 2 to be followed then by wat should be the strongest bull market for decades if not centuries in the form of Cycle Wave 3 of Supercycle Wave 3. The chart up to the end of Cycle 2 ought to go something like this:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowcyclewaves26_04_14.png

There's no panic yet but we're also nearing the top of what should be Primary 3 of Cycle 1 so a choppy and volatile second half of 2014 may be due.

Just something to watch.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Wall...sh%20%28daily%29.png

Having looked at this in the cold light of a non-trading day, I've come to this conclusion: we are at a crunch support/resistance level. If price breaks thru here it will head to a minimum of 17,370, with obviously, a few stutters in between, to form the completion of wave (( v )) / C; there could well be extensions thereafter. Failure here, and more importantly 15,987, and we will be heading south again for more consolidation.

Ultimately, when this wave that started way back at 10,402 does complete, we will be looking at a sizable correction......

Yes Remo - it's approaching a very interesting area in the 15790-15800 region which I've been looking forward to for ages (those on chat will know lol!):



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily12_04_14.png

There's been an awful lot of price action in those 10 points and the 61.8% Fib is not far away either so plenty of support around there.

Interestingly, SPX has been more bearish of late so it's roughly back in line with Dow after leading for quite some time. In fact, at 1814/5, it's a little ahead in this drop as its equivalent trendline is at 1800, only 15 pips away compared to Dow which is 230 or so away (a usual 9:1 ratio gives a relative difference of c. 100 pts) so it'll be interesting to see which way they go.

If it does bounce and our wave counts are right it could be quite a move

The dow has moved back down hard this week from that resistance area.
This now is approaching the trend line(minor) which i will be going long on a first attempt basis.
The trend line is currently at 15795 so i will be going long at 15800 with a 40 point stop.Obviously the trend line changes daily so i will be changing my level daily as well.. This trade is the patient trade im always on about
good luck

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow12thapril2014.png

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DOWdaily.png

According to my chart this should make, at least, 16,705, and very probably 17,154 > 17,431 before any significant pull-back. If this is a wave 5 it would be quite normal to expect a 1.618% extension of wave 4 to complete the wave. This would put us at 17,371, slap bang in the middle of my target area, and would therefore be my favorite.

My chart may be incorrect but, I see the current sideways movement as a little stutter before making a new all-time high.

This is just my opinion and is not intended as investment advice so please DYOR

i wont be shorting this now as its too close to the high. Shorts at resistance works better when there is a massive move on the day towards a major resistance level like a move of 100+ points. When there is only 40-50 points in it then best left alone.
This could breakout so one to keep an eye on.. I wont place any trades now as last 30 mins of trading.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow2ndapril2014.png

The dow has broken out today so i expect this to test the all time high.
Maybe worth a short on first attempt of all time high during market hours only.
im currently long on the dow from the breakout point but will take profits at the all time high.I will still keep some positions open as will move my remainder to break even.
its to late to jump on board.
If the high gets taken out then this can motor a lot higher so be careful on any shorts as there only meant for a quick trade only. The trend is up on the dow so longs are the way forward until things change.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow1stapril2014.png

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Wall...sh%20%28daily%29.png

Looks like we should expect a completion of the retrace on the indicies. My view of the DOW follows my normal pattern in that I'm looking for support within the area of the 50 - 61.80% fibonacci retrace of the previous move up. In this case from 15338 > 16514 - it's highlighted in blue on the chart. There's support at 15,791 and also, a little below at 15.724, if that doesn't hold.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/US%2...20Cash%20%28-%29.png

A similar approach on the S&P500 gives support at 1,811.90 & 1,813.40


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/FTSE...sh%20%28daily%29.png

The FTSE is becoming a very complex correction and therefore my reading of it could well be completely wrong, however, my interpretation is we are now in an irregular flat with the 3rd leg due to end at 6213 support, again in the blue area of extension. There are alternatives, obviously, the favourite being a running flat, in which case we would already be into the next wave. In view of the expected action in the other two indicies, this appears unlikely.

These are just my views and are subject to change. They are not intended as guidance for trades so please DYOR.

Possible double top formation???
Worth a short on first attempt only at the recent high at 16588.
This will be a first attempt trade during market hours only.
Ive got a 40 point stop on this trade.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow11thmarch2014.png

This war that's hanging over the world can make the markets jumpy ...so careful trading the indexes ..

Funny how events sometimes conspire to fit the charts



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily28_02_14.png

Too early to suggest that this is a black swan, but Dow Futures opened down (-130) / gold opens up (by +10)

Hi
One lesson I learnt from Remo is to always watch the Dow when you need a clearer picture and ignore the noise. The lack of a high in the Dow is worrying me and I am concerned that this rise could still be a B wave of a bigger ABC decline. In which case the bottom of A wave in early Feb may get taken out in March/April. So until that high on Dow gets taken, I am a bit cautious. I like Dow leading rather than following.

Could it be Ukraine/Russia be the trigger?

Gee

Agree 100% WS, but the DOW is still making stellar progress in the wave 5: over 1000 points since feb 5th. Kiev willing, a new high cannot be far away

Dow has not made a new high yet, spx, ndx etc all have, Dow will need to eventually do the same to quantify the move off the lows as a continuation of major 5 of primary 3

WS,

I'm not so sure it's a question of the DOW catching up; more a case of the DOW in a 5-way move whereas the 500 is in a 3-way move. This gives a different feel to the moves, imho. Whatever, I'm sure you're right in being bullish

update chart from last post looking bully imo, just need dow to catch-up




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Wal...28DFB%294hr28feb.png

also spx





WS

There seems to be a tug of war between the bulls and bears to close above 16250

The long range view from the weekly chart.......

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DJ%2...STRIAL%20AVGwkly.png
....if the current move doesn't extend this chart is showing completion between 18,567 and 21,422. Then we would be looking at a PULL-BACK - yes, the capitals were intended - this will be mega: my chart is only showing the last leg from 6,470 and you can read the 50 - 61.8% fibs for yourself. If, and it is a big if, it retraces the entire move from way back, then it is probably the end of the world, so we wont go there......but this would be a good time to be 'in cash'.

The Daily.......

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DOWdaily.png

and the hourly looking at today's business....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/DOWhrly.png

update to the last chart posted below.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Wal...9%204hr_invH%26S.png




rgds WS

Watch out for the 16240 level during market hours (the following is a daily cash chart) as that was the breakdown point. Possibly worth taking some long profits or scalping a short at this level:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily16_02_14.png

Just to add - I am also following very closely on the movement of the banking sector. The banks were a strong catalyst on the move from late last year. They are somewhat stagnant at the moment so I am watching that very closely (my intention is to get on the boat with Lloyds of the trading opportunity present itself - as I missed the last one)