Nice to see you again.

I would not be buying any shares or funds for the time being as the bear market has just started and best time to look to buy some will be around 6-9 months time. There is just way to much negative news out there to sustain any bounces.
remo

Good Morning All - It has been a while - the XTA and GKP days seem like a lifetime ago Smiley - Markets looking interesting so thought I would drop in.

Had a fantastic year trading Gold Funds in my Aviva Pension last year - banking a nice 52% growth in the pot - currently in 90% cash although bought 10% of US and UK tracker funds yesterday to try to catch some of the dead cat bounce

im still short...but should have just left my original positions opened instead of trying to be smart...lol...

Big picture,Monthly Dow chart with fibs & main trendline




Weekly Dow chart

I’ve already closed my shorts from earlier...now just trading in and out....as expecting a bit of rebound as it’s moved so much down...
Dow is respecting all technical tricks currently....I suppose that’s the only way to trade it when it’s like this...
I closed my shorts once I saw a hammer formed on the hourly and then waited to go long half way down the hammer...
Closed that long for 400 point profit.....then I went short...currently short but looking at going long again...lol

remo wrote:
yeah way too risky....
with the dow expect the unexpected....
wouldn't be a big surprise to see it close up imvho....
certainly not risking any of my cash finding out!

be careful with trading the dow as the swings are massive both ways so stops will be taken out easily if you try and enter.
Only for the crazy people...

you can click on chart to make bigger

The fib level to watch is at 24100 as that's the 23.6 fib level of the total bull market we have had, also the medium term trend line is at 24267 currently so they should hold the down move on a first attempt basis.
The main trendline is at 20700.
I suspect this downward move may stall at the fib level and trendline as that's got a lot of support there.

Support levels on the way down....25743,,,,,,25339,,,,24680,,,,,,24267 (trendline),,,,,24100 (23.6fib)
Now there are a loads of resistance on the way back up now created by gaps...

im short on the dow and will look to add to shorts unless something big changes things...cant see that currently

It’s looking real nasty out there...can’t see any levels of support near by for the Dow...
Will try and figure out some areas later

getting dumped....
good call Remo!

Bulls vs Bears shootout....
Watch the last hour imvho...
Rally and it’s the end of this p/b
Sell off and this dump is going to get real nasty ....
I still think this is going straight back up... but let’s see...27000 is the key number in my opinion and it looks a bear trap break below today....

Atb
Trendfriend

The Dow just respected its 200 ma and turned down rapidly....was up 400 points and now almost negative...
I added shorts with a 100 point stop....lol....
It respected technicals perfectly...
Sorry away from computer...would have shown charts....will post later...




You can see the horizontal support of the gap and the 200ema at the same point gave this area major resistance

twitter.com/alphamusings/status/1232347276787404800

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ta3zHMxVGAiI6UjSE%3D

Lets see if this trendline holds...i think it will imvho

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...8Q31BCES%2FowitAk%3D

Huge gap down below the Aug trend channel....which is giving the bears strength....
27489 is the key level....if that goes....could see real panic

Until then this could easily bounce back imvho....

lets see...
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

This could be the day that starts the bear market off."?.....
Dow coming down 850 points currently.....

I think this index is getting ready for a down move soon....but I’m suprised it’s still so high considering how long this bull market has been going..

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Fiowc9U3qkNi1rDog%3D

Just looking at this....
Perfect trend channel bounce yesterday...totake it back above the key 200 day ema line...

Is this current p/b over?

I'm not a convinced Bull atm....in fact if your long you would be nervous imho...

Is that not a island reversal??
was the rally yesterday just a retest of the 200 day ema line?

I think this is going down further imvho...i'm watching it closely, waiting to see if that channel does break down...25750 i make the level....
so a lower low could well be the signal to short the brains out of this imho...

What do you folks think??

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

This looks like its gonna breakout???
one to watch

i was in a rush earlier...the numbers are no correct...i will get these numbers right at some point : lol

200 day ema line at 25357....and this has just gapped below that level...

the 1,23 high...or lower low level is 23218....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend...

dow - daily. (the 200 day ema line feature on the daily is actually 23318, not 23218 as printed on the chart)
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...zymGig3t9Thvuerkg%3D

watch this today(and this week)2 key levels being tested....

inevitably the ftse will follow....this can off course bounce from here...but the setup looks bearish big style...

i'm all cash atm...mainly because i keep getting stopped out over last few weeks!
think might be wise to wait for a big p/b before getting on the long side on stocks again?

lets see how she rolls...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Dow Jones up by 1000 points ...!!!

Down 800 points now

broken the Trend line from 2016, but then went up above it & tested it again, will the trenline hold againg? double top Jan18/oct18

Dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...cXLEPeKxo9Hg+Ev3ib8=

well this is intriguingly poised....i thought it was going to get a real stuffing on Friday...but it actually rallied a tad, but is was still off some 300 points....and it's certainly not out of the woods yet...but i think caution in taking positions here fornow, while we get a clearer direction for this week...

Will it go up or down now??
Bulls will point out a bullish div on the rsi...and this has already dropped approx 10%...so maybe back up now?

Bears will point out the l/l , and the first real close below the 200 day ema line for around 2 years...
I think as things stand, its a little bit in no man land atm...a rally back above the 200 day ema line...and off we go again...
A new lower low...calls for a continuation of the downside imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

It’s battling with the trend line based of the spreadbetting charts currently..A finish below the trend line could send this a lot lower...But a finish above could signal a move back to test the 200ma again...

Big dump on the way imvho...certainly looks set for it...

270 or so points down atm....i think it could well be 1000 points down by the close....

Black Friday today....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Yesterday this back tested the 200 ma perfectly on the Dow based on spredbetting charts, normal charts also finished below .

Interesting day ahead for the Dow.

A little off topic, but I don't like how the Nasdaq Composite
.IXIC (INDEXNASDAQ) has broken it's trend line & today's open it is dropping quite a bit!

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...KfOZi1c5hnxnTE1nLbo=

off cousrse we must wait to see how this opens....and trades today...
going by the futures atm....this will gap below the 200 day ema line line currently 24971....as well confirming a 1,2,3 high/lower low...as remo pointed out below...that in itself is indicative of whats to come here...

while below the 200 day ema line...no longs here...only selling the rallies imvho...

lets see
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

There is a massive 123 high formation on this.
24896 is the level to watch on this as a break below this and down she goes.
I’ll post chart latter as away from computer.

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...X8iCN7xXaCGKW8NUM%3D

the trade was the short to the 200 day ema line....on the break of the wedge/channel form yesterday...then long again at the 200 day....
the short bounced off that level almost perfectly....

question is will that level hold??? im not confident with a long here tbh...

i got a feeling this last hour will be nasty imvho...lets see

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

where is the DOW in regard to Elliot waves? Have we Completed all the 5 Major UP waves back from 2009 or are we in the last leg up still?

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...7QSdvFRDO6D2Fsw7Q%3D

this has broken this channel from july...and the 50 day ema line today....could well possibly fall another 1000 points in the coming days to the 200 day ema line...
so while below 26035... most likely more down side to come here....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

My dow chart pretty simliar to yours TF

As long as its not a big bear trap then lower we go ...

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...FTt5xbKB4KQfv86Qk%3D

not very good imvho....
It should by all intents and purposes go down for at least a LL....
so below 23350....
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Yep, exactly right LTV.....

It's a bit of a pivot level....and the 20 and 50 day ema lines are around that area.....which in themselves act like pivot levels...

Closed bang on 25,000 today....intriguingly poised.....currently in a triangle, and whichever way it breaks should result in a decent move in that direction imvho....

atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend

DOW Daily.

TF,

I have yesterday's high at 24,995, why was 25035 important please

Is it because it failed at the EMA20?

I think we are heading toward the main trendline Area & fib retracement levels, Below main trend line Level would be an area of concern, if there was not a bounce back upwards.

RichB,

What are your targets for the FTSE?

Dow looks like it's taking a hammering again, can't post a chart.

I'd be interested to know too .. Ive got some ideas for patterns for lower targets on the Dax & FTSE nothing yet on the DOW ...

MRA4, I believe this is Wave C, what do you think?

Do you have a projected target? I'm thinking around 21,500.

Although there is a problem with this, if it does get to 21000/21500, we have dropped 20% from the high, which I believe puts us in a bear market. Does this compute with Elliotts Wave Theory?

DOW Daily

Looks to be breaking down again.

It's broken it's daily uptrend line.

MRA4, thanks for that mate, made my simple chart look very childish!

Glad we are on the same wave length.

I agree, I thought we were in a ABC move, current wave down to around 21000/21500, Wave C.

Going by this, do we still have 2 main waves until the big drop?

I think we are Currently in a corrective wave "ABC" of the Major Wave





rt7.t.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/dis...crreh8zql9f&type=png

61.8% bounce back on the Daily




rt7.t.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/dis...56zjc29ryek&type=png

Got bored waiting, answering myself, that's sad.

He's a simple chart to show the extent of this move.

Perhaps I have Elliotts all wrong, but it looks good to me.

Looking at the chart below and reading a very limited amount on Elliotts wave before my head exploded

I can't see an ABC move from the 2009 low, I can see minor corrections, which would imply the ABC moves in the lower frames, but I would have thought there would be an BIG ABC move??



Any ideas?

kerching....

that went well....

i'm looking to short if we get below 25096....stop above today's high....
dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...NIjlEnznky0s5IWK8%3D

50 day ema line is the key here imvho....and i think this down move is not quite over yet....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

dow daily. (trading hours only)
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...VXp9uth6mM6y0ikuI%3D

I would only be comfortable with the long side here on a break above 24947....close above 25100 confirms the upside view
stop below 23780.

so basically looking for a higher high, as the bar has been set for us yesterday.....important not to jump the gun here imho..... unless you likle to gamble! lol....

drop below 23800 calls for 23000 > 22000> 19500 (area)

be lucky folks,
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend