something really interesting took place on the dow today....and it seems no one has picked it up so far..

dow - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...uqbSc43yLq9kdY6dZZg=

see the 200 day ema line on the weekly chart? when was the last time we broke below it?
well it happened today!!

closer look here.
dow -weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...KbEdHH05GVNZB6KSo%3D

It could be a bear trap right....a small dip below....catch all the bears out and up we go...
so a break below the next key support is (for me) the key...so 21712 needs to get taken out to confirm the bear market.....not just another correction imvho....

if that number goes....i posted at the start of this fall that the broadening triangle has a target of 18,000/18,500.....and i think that could well be the bottom of this fall imvho....but wdik....

one more quick point 21712....worth a long with tight stops....possible relief rally there....before down again imho...(very tight stops)...

be lucky folks and stay safe
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Medium term trendline broke today. and its a biggie as this goes back to 2016 . Next is the main trendline from 2009 bear market low and that's hovering around 21000 for the dow.



Bear markets normally head towards 50- 61.8 fib levels. and key levels of fibs are at

24131 (23.6%) Hit already....
20737 (38.2%)
18035(50%)
15300 (61.8%)

hey jackozy, nice to see you around after a long time.. I guess markets like this brings everyone back . Nice seeing you mate. Hope all is well.
remo

Hello everyone - how are you all?

Interesting times indeed! Probably like many of you I've been waiting for a significant correction for some time but I confess I thought it would come from a major middle east conflict (Iran/US) or a default on US debt (would just be fake news anyway, right? ) but who could have known it would be a tiny wee virus that would do it??

If the count in the attached Dow chart is right (not a given) then a close below c. 24400 today means we drop below the uptrend support from the P2 and P4 lows - that's classic wave 2 territory. Main uptrend line is c. 21000 at the moment.

Look at the support at the 50% and 61.8% retracements - again, typical wave 2 targets.

Remember - protect you positions and don't catch falling knives (or coronavirus!).

US Markets halted....

Yep, a 2000 point drop does that.

(there's a link in all this somewhere.... we might yet discover what it means to be human, but maybe only briefly!)

But for now, let the dice fall where they may.

dow - daily. (chart from thurs 6 March)
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...r4yO1vDcMDL5jgh4g%3D

Comes back to this chart....a gap below the previous low looks likely today.....

dow daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...JTu4XLBHoqRpRslck%3D

21707 next key level...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

The futures are going mad right now....oil down more than 20%, dam,,,,Dow Down 1100 points,,,,dam,,,ftse coming down 350 points..dam...
It’s going to be a crazy Monday so hold on tight as this just got real...

hi TF, thanks once again for the input.
As usual, the good old collaborative, supportive vibes of Chartsview (that we have kept intact from way back) is such a refreshing and comforting change to any other BB and so very precious

Yeps, I would be totally out of my depth and it would be a risk to capital, I should know better haha

I will possibly take a little piece of CPI if it dips to 59p again, but I see directors have purchased to try and steady the drop, lets see.

I still have my GKP holding too...with the dividends and the OO shares I am still around 50% down so will look to add there once the rout is over.

Stay safe people, it could get difficult rather quickly !

Ade

"It could be a wild ride, and there's more than just markets riding on the outcome in my humble view".

good reminder there Libero....well said...

Stay safe everyone...

Ade...what Remo said about cfd's is right imho...
even though it may come across as a cigarette smoker saying to other people
"don't start smoking.... its not good for you"

wait for the big p/b then buy quality stocks that pay a good divi...and hold imho...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

does look like a bit of a bear flag on the daily....
i think a break below 26200....should open things up....and this be clear for a run towards 24672....imho..

gotta run...back later to read all the posts....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

AdeMcG, Libero & any anyone else , if you want to do gold i use,
iShares Physical Gold ETC GBP (LSE:SGLN)
www.ii.co.uk/etfs/ishares-physical-gold-etc-gbp/LSE:SGLN

Honestly speaking......don’t spread bet as you will need huge funds just to have a position open nowadays. They changed the law on spread betting last year and its basicallly safe guards people who have a bad habit of betting big . Where as before you could do £10 a point bet with funds of around £200 , but now it’s more like £2000 of funds required for same bet...
Only professional traders have the luxury of small funds for big positions....basically people who are tax registered for trading...lol..
The markets are really crazy currently and which ever way you bet you will get taken out due to huge swings of 500 points a time...
When ever I enter on the Dow I’m starting with 500 points stop currently...just to try and give it a chance to get the trade right....This is not good....I used to only have a 40 point stop on the Dow but those days are gone now...due to size of index...
Stay safe and just watch and see how the markets perform as it’s a roller coaster .
Just safe money up for the big event which hopefully is getting on board at the bottom f the markets....long way off still so just try and enjoy the ride..

Thanks for the explanation Libero,....perhaps I will stay ultra safe and just watch the action from a far

AdeMcG wrote:
Ade, glad you're well.

with regards to your questions...

a. it really depends - are you looking to trade gold for the short term, or do you believe in it as a genuine safe haven (i.e. to have and to hold)

b. easiest and safest when trading the dow (particularly during volatility and especially when looking to short) are tough to answer - it's not easy, and it's definitely not safe!

you have a number of options with both a & b

a. buy physical, bet on it (cfd, or spread), etf and funds, the royal mint etc...
b. short via IG and the like again (via Cfd or spread), options (beware!), warrants (beware!), or inverse trackers.

In fact, they all deserve a "beware" disclaimer.

Stay Safe!

remo wrote:

Hey Folks, I hope you're all staying safe. And for those trading this baby, hats off - you're all legends in my eyes!

With regards to Remo's remark (above) - here's an extract from Donald Trump's favourite "paper", the Washington Post

So, it could dicey in the US; moreover, consider this: if the above message is capitalised on, it could pave the way for greater support for Bernie Sanders - which a large number of the "1%" and Markets dislike greatly.

If things (based on the above) gain momentum, Sanders' policies will get more traction, and it will be a straight shoot-out between a "healthcare for all to defeat Corona" message vs "Healthcare for those who can afford it and the hell with the rest" slogan.

It could be a wild ride, and there's more than just markets riding on the outcome in my humble view.

For a simpleton like myself, what is the easiest ( and safest) way to profit from exposure to:
A.) Gold ( perhaps an ETF?)
B.) The DOW long or short

I have an active iii trading and share ISA account and I don't really want to open an IG index account and lose lots of cash like 64% of all their accounts
cheers
Ade

From what I heard Americans have to pay for a test for corona...Surely people ain’t going to bother so likely to be worse than they realise in America...
I’m short on Dow and long on gold....

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...r4yO1vDcMDL5jgh4g%3D

looks like the rsi hit resistance yesterday....and will fail to break out....
no clear direction atm....so lets see...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51740706

i think things are a lot worse than many countries are telling us imvho....
the cash strapped Americans wouldn't release $8 billion if they don't expect a war....but hey wdik...so lets see...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Sold my US/UK Tracker Funds - Bounce must be nearly done? Now just need to sit on my hands and hope for more panic selling

can't see one good reason for this rally today....

i'm staying short....closed one position...but keeping the rest....lets see...

atb
trendfriend

a couple of dow charts here....the more i look at this the bearish i think it looks.....

dow - weekly...
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...9VriImXCCS7UTsPo4%3D

this has not even completed 1,2,3 high or lower low on the weekly yet.....and that's some high mega sized 1,2,3 high!
The high today was close enough to the 50 day ema line on the weekly....

dow - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...23HfYs0JNoBNHvv2hzY=
key numbers 24681 next....then 23932....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Good to see all the old faces still trading...You guys are coming back during a crazy times in the market..
Stay out of the markets for the next 6-9 months then enter ...Once in a life time chance coming around..

Quick hello from the 2008/9 iii forums. Watching this very closely.

Would suggest another meet up in London again but think it's wise we keep social distance in the circumstances!

For a feel of how this is really spreading, go follow Dr. John Campbell YouTube channel - this led to me selling several of my holdings last Thursday as I could tell things weren't right before it was properly reported here in the UK.

Haha...its been quite a ride in the Delorean

Although it has to be said, I have made zero cash from anything other than work ( boring day job) for around 7 years

AdeMcG wrote:
hope your well Ade....
i saw SE here recently...and Libero...and now you!!
i feel 15 years younger already!

atb,
trendfriend

going to add one more short...last one...at 26085...so only if this makes a intraday lower low
again a large one....stop above 27400...
target 18,000 i kid you not!!

atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

evening all....long time since I recovered my password here

Good to see the good old original names I remembered and valued.

Action on the Dow recently and indeed the major indices has been frantic...perhaps that panic selling may well start soon.

Keep safe one and all !

Ade

short again...26343...

its gonna get dumped....real sign of weakness from the fed today...desperate stuff imvho...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51726954

stopped out!

short order in 27400...but i'll again if we go below todays low 27350....
this is still going down imvho....but knowing which way its going and trading it succesfully are two different things!

There’s some crazy moves both ways currently...

added another short at 26568.3....stop 26800... gap resistance....no moving this stop....today

larger position here so lets see...i think this is set for a red day imvho....
atb
trendfriend

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...AaI9RM+BkEmbSmGaZdE=

The dow can make you doubt your Analysis and thinking....because it can push you hard both ways when it goes up or down.....
off course a line in the sand is important....for me its the 200 day ema line on the daily....at 27,400 area....
another key level is 27200 which is the 50 day ema line on the weekly chart....
i'm convinced this will come down.....but should have waited for key levels....
I was on the right side of the market by going long on Friday....but closed my longs way too early...and went short....
My 2 shorts are small...but deep under now....
i think i wait wait for 27200 and 27400 before adding larger shorts with tight stops...

The second wave of selling is usually stronger than the first imvho....because it has real panic in the market.....lets see
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Cup and handle on hourly chart of Dow...

I see cup and handle formation on the hourly chart of the Dow on IG charts, and also rounded bottom on ftse100 ..,That’s a bit worrying for my shorts... I’m going to have to play both sides of the market until the move down resumes..





I’m going to have to trade based on what I see and not emotions...
That’s the beauty of technicals....
Even thou I believe it’s a bear market I have to be flexible for just Incase of the unexpected..
If the fib level of 61.8 gets taken out (Dow)with ease then that can cancel the bears and could signal continuation of prior trend.
61.8 fib level is a very strong resistance area and would require something special to break that...I would be shocked if that level goes .

Fingers crossed

dam,,,,already hit it today....
im short now...fingers crossed....proper crazy market

Best area to short currently is at the 38.2 fib level.
This is at 26550.
Im going short from there on a first attempt basis only. With a 500 point stop....

Not for the faint hearted...lol

took the short at 25972.3
my stop is way high....but i may cut it out if 26050 goes....

lets see...

i think 26,000 area....give or take 50 or so points....
i think that's the key atm imvho....
resistance and down trendline is around there on the hourly....

going to add there if we hit that number during market hours....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

It’s proper yo-yo at the moment.....lol
It’s filled the gap resistance at 25750, well 25741, missed my perfect entry by 9 points...
I’ve deleted that short order now,,,,,but have gone short from around 25550 ish area....but only a tiny bet of 30p a point...lol...

moved stop up to stay in here....small position, so looking to add another short.... i think this is going down imvho....maybe a couple of days of up first though...
atb
trendfriend

closed long and short now at 25552.5
stop 25850 for now....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

From looks of it , the Dow maybe coming down 500 points from fridays close.....
I’m looking to get short again but need a rally to do that ...
Far as Im Concerned we have already started the bear market..Shorts are the only way forward unless the highs gets taken out...
The media are always late to the party but once they get involved then likely will be huge panic sells...
I’m expecting the markets to correct for around 6-9 months and then the once in a life time opportunity will come.
For people who are not good at trading,,,,,,,,look to buy funds at that time....Hargreaves Lansdown wealth 50 is a good starting point...
Remo

dow -weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...O05S+rH/NcmQWT9ZsH0=

looking at this in longer time frames as well.....someone i follow was looking at lower on the indices. I think i have to agree now..having looked closely at this...
Does seem that the rally on Friday may well be a mid move consolidation, as the market is very oversold..... before another leg lower....
This could well drop down to around 183500 area imvho

lets see but i'm going to close my long and look to short the rallies.....Fridays support level and the 200 day ema line on the weekly are key now imvho....once they fail i think this should drop quickly again.

going to close my long...and short only for the coming weeks...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Hammer!!

The last 15 mins it moved 600 points creating a hammer....
still be careful thou as any bad news over the weekend could be bad..
ive closed all my positions today.If the dow opens above 25500 that could be a possible 123 low formation based on hourly chart..



this is a 1 min chart...been trading this all day...crazy moves

..and then i went long on gold ……lol
fingers crossed

Nearly stopped me out...

Rallied into the close. Looks like a hammer candle to finish.
I think this will rally next week....let’s see...

also the dow is now well oversold....

to go long

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ibObI2hVNT0RoQgTM%3D

bounced perfectly form this support June 2019 support at 24695.

I think that is the line in sand now for the dow....imvho...

anyway i'm long at 25328.9
stop 24650.

long term position intend to hold...so lets see....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

I got tempted here!