I think it will fail imvho...
We do need the market to tell us and confirm the breakdown. I think many a trading account will get wiped out finding out.

Volatility will be mad...expect the bulls and the fed to put up a fight....but with inflation gone bonkers can the fed keep pumping these markets??
So it seems a good possibility the game is up for the yanks....and they take the other markets down with them?

Lets see..

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Trendfriend, nice to hear from you and start looking at charts again.

Do you think the 29500/29600 will hold, or we are going to re-test the covid lows?

What do you think?

bull vs beras battle ongoing pretty close to the key support at 29500/29600 imvho.
If those numbers go....my oh riley..

i think the covid lows could well be retested imvho..

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

DOW under 30k.

Looks like another fake out. S&P hasn’t managed to keep above 4000 yet again. Tested and failed !!

I am open to the idea that the market won’t crash in a straight line but we are in a bear market. This is defo not going to fly to 37000. So if there is a bounce what levels should we be watching to go back short ?

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...MM8cbbg1qKDDlgUkw%3D

don't get too bearish here just yet imvho...
watch the 30 level on that rsi...and watch the 29,500 level...

aside form from a couple of breaches of that 30 level the dow seems to bounce strongly from the 30 level on the rsi...

If 29,500 goes then it cold go quite a lot lower....just don't think it will imvho... and this should be nothing more than a 20% correction.....but lets see.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

bear minimum, great pun.

Thanks Remo. I will watch and wait.

Would be nice to load up, ready for the next swing.

That’s the bear minimum for me….38.2fib…but bear in mind this is just an index figure…
I’m shocked at how low most shares have corrected already. Nearly all the shares I follow have corrected way more than this already and some have corrected over 90%, its absolutely crazy out there…..Even thou I have been banging on about staying out of the market for ages, I have ignored my own advice and have dipped into some shares, only to have made a huge loss on those investments..lol..
This is one of the worst correction I have seen yet the indexes are not showing it fully…obviously its based on what index you follow. Nasdaq has corrected loads compared to ftse100 or even the Dow..

Are we only aiming for the 38.2% fib? I make that around 29,800.
Doesn’t seem like that far away.

I was hoping to stock up, missed the march 2020 dip; as needed the funds for a house.

It looks like the futures (and the first hour after open) made an attempt to rally and turned out to be a fakeout again. S&P tested 4000 before turning lower

Thank you for the advance warning Remo. s&P just broke 4000 and all hell has broken loose!!

Wave 3 in action I think …

It looks like its heading lower big time..
Bear market is in full swing now .
Currently corrected 23.8 fib, but likely to head towards 38.2 fib.

The DOW is very volatile. My long which i opened last week was stopped out - and yesterday's price action is like down down down. not even a breather lol - which suggests it may be a fakeout and a major rejection.
Threading carefully with this one...

As I am typing:
1. Bearish candle yesterday - went up to the high, finish on the low
2. 4 hour candle (potentially the daily) trend line broken.
3. 4 hour lower low has been triggered.

Again, not going down in a straight line. and potentially may fly up again!!

Waverider2,

Yes, I would say a false breakout, it's dropped every since.

Start of wave 3 potentially?

What appeared to be a breakout seems like a takeout. The price action yesterday was very bearish - and yes it was doing higher high, but that may stop and take out the recent lows.

Watching , but have a short with a view of adding more shorts.

Hi Trendfriend,

What happened to the drop and the bear market?

Did I miss it?

We are making HH, HL, above the 20,50,200 MA.

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...kAfQX7nhhiC4LWCraIQ=

this looks shaky currently.
sustained period below the 200 day ema line on the daily. failure to get above the 20 day ema line(brown line)
currently looks like its forming a triangle pattern.

look out for a breakdown
having said that....over the years this finds a way to recover when all looks lost!

so lets see...normally it would bounce back much quicker...watch 32,272 ultimately

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

I'll keep watching.

I thought the DOW target would be around 27500. 50% fib.

Has anybody looked at the Grand supercycle? Thats a little ominous.

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...dlJJ5L7zDbxndz3mk%3D

key current support levels for the dow.
I dont understand why everyone is so bearish on these markets. From a technical perspective....no real evidence of downtrend/bear market imvho..
We hit the support level near 33128 yesterday and bounced.
We did get a lower low...on the dow in Feb....but this has bounced back and it looks like a bear trap reversal.
I would only look to be bearish or short if we go below 32,271 area
I think the fed has been waiting for the sellers to clear before they pump...pump again!

ftse - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...1Q4ZU4Y8HsIU9QNas%3D
Only look at down targets on ftse on eod close below the 200 day ema line feature on the daily chart.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Possible head and shoulder forming

json mapper online

Hello....hello...hello.
Its been so long! hope all are well here?
Not been trading much and occupied with some other matters....slowly looking for trades again so lets see.
Still holding some stocks....some underwater and some doing ok...like bt
Anyway....for the dow and ftse....my thoughts.

No panic here...this may well crash but i think we make new highs first....substantial new highs imvho.

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...F3/xLvUibPua+wQNK6M=
this did look like it would breakdown...but it has quickly jumped back in what looks like a bear trap reversal imvho...this should head higher....especially if the fed is feeding these markets

fte - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...W+7kaFOyFJQosTLHc1k=

This looks strong imvho....i think this index should hit 10,000 this year imvho.
Only doubt this if we get an end of week close below the 200 day ema line. while above should motor on imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor.
Trendfriend

If you take the fib from the bottom of the last major correction to the peak then the 38.2 fib level to target would be around
29765.that area has loads of support also . That’s the minimum correction for me..

What do u guys think of these charts?
Would DOW hit the gap at around 28500?

I am now short on the Dow. The candle stick today is terrible . Any views ?

Thanks

That was a perfect call TF, DOW boucned off the 200dma..perfectly
But as I was watching it live, was scared to take any long positions, as most analysts were expecting it going below 200dma
Now today market is back up, dow at 35750!!!
What I am not sure is how to make a call on live time....
now when I look back, chart looks perfect, bounce... but taking that call to buy around 200dma wasnt there from me!!

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...JkJOKr+6fX1Pcczs0SY=

short term technicals suggest more down here....at least to the key 200 day ema line and pivot level at around 33900 and 33800 area

Key gap below the 50 day ema line and a inside bar....that looks bearish should see more down...but i think the 200 day should hold lets see... be real panic if it doesn't!

lets see...
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Closed my shorts as seem to be some strength around….so sitting on sidelines again with the index.

Another lower low formed on the dow..
Possible 123 high formation..
Stops above 36325...
Away from computer so can't post chart

The markets have been hard to predict a top lately so be careful with shorts..Stops are a must.
I won't be liquidating my position in a hurry unless next supports break.. Also will hold onto my pharmaceutical companies and green ones...

This keeps see sawing and i am watching the support line which seems to be insupport from July. I am still in favour of looking for opportunities to short. It seems to be selling off every time it goes up

looks like a 123 top formation ? , also recently broke the main up trendline from march 2020.
Due to this i have closed most of my long positions apart from a few that i hold for long term.
Calling the top is a hard thing to do in this crazy world we are currently living in so bear that in mind.
DYOR
remo






Im currently short on the dow.

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ptLh5EgaZUrL9mqKY%3D

One issue with the dow is the index has become a very big number....and it does big number one moves almost daily but in percentage terms its only a few percent!

This looks like its done a higher low and should push on imvho....

i don't like the dow or the US markets or the Fed!
i think its all a fix imho. and anyone shorting will be shredded in not time....but when this all crashes its going to be the biggest stock market crash in history imho.... and that day is getting closer.

i think around mid 2022...but its only a hunch and wdik....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

As TF said earlier, I think every dip is a buying opportunity...

was bit hesitant,but... ah... its back, FTSE is up last two days too

thanks for heads up

All my shorts are now closed...lol..
did not not work out like i thought.
The bulls some how have taken back control for the time being

I thought it bounced off the 100day ema perfectly?

This has broken the main redrawn trend line after a double top formation. I suspect this is heading towards the main 200ema around 32000.
I am short on the dow now and have closed majority of my longs on positions that i held in my sipp.

Ummm,,,, This is still hugging the down trendline back up....For the upmove to continue this needs to break above the recent high at 35091
The trendline will have to be redrawn once that happens.Its only a few hundred points away.
the other major US indexes are bullish and at all time highs so a tricky one this is.
im currently all invested again and will look for signs of weakness just incase.

I am just a follower here... I just follow the expert thoughts...

Looks like things are just going up n up n up as TF says... .
ta
G

Good morning all,

As fickle as the markets I think we just need to adjust based on what the candles and analysis tell us.
The last few weeks at least for me, most of my analysis were all over the place.

Anyway, today (yes I know it’s still pre US market) - the strongest signal showed up which is the 4 hour channel . The price action has now broken out north of the channel as of about 45 mins ago. My view is that the 35k is the next point at least to begin with. Then an ascending triangle to break it. No charts I apologise as I am on the train ….

Any views appreciated

waverider2 wrote:
Hi remo, do you still think the direction is downward or as TF says, buy the dip. ?

Thank you both of you remo, and TF for all your supports....
ta
G

dow - daily long term
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...hj+JQNyCR61g98l+zrg=

How many times in the last 5 years has the rsi fallen below the key 30 oversold level on the rsi??
twice....when we had full blown corrections....
no break below 30 level on the rsi....no lower...

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...YxYFjgO1frVieUl+ukE=
notes are on the chart.
keep saying buy the dips....and don't short the US markets imvho... but as always wdik.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Remo- thank you for the follow up point on the trend break.

From a technical perspective- what would you say the move up today is around ?

I have seen this type of moves many times and it seems like a mix of short covering, traders coming into the mix and then dump etc etc.

Would be keen to know if this move is a classic move before the next leg down ?

Thanks

Ive closed most of my longs on my Sipp, and have shorted the dow now as its broken the main down trend line from last year and also has a 123 top breakout today so suspect this could head towards the 200ema

dow - daily. real time cash trading hours only chart.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...mFaMuufMQZN9FoR24CM=

close up dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...0lJQG1PDkq923zpIY%3D

the trendline has indeed been busted....but watch the 50 day eme line.(green line)
key level and usually does a bear trap rebound from around there.

Whilst your right this looks shaky....it always bounces back. So i don't think despite the t/line going its a good idea to short imvho...
Maybe if we get a technical event like a big gap below the 50 day ema line then a weekly close below

Lets see...almost certain the fed will give the dow good pump in the next couple of days!

atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

On standby for a short as the long term trend line has been (i think)broken. I wlll see if a close today is below the trendline.....its all getting tricky as there is fed news tomorrow.....volatile

Dow is still bullish as long as it stays above the main trend line from march 2020.

I have to say it is getting too choppy at the moment ...

OK - there was a recent top. Then it kept falling....then it started to pick up forming the ascending triangle.

It is above the ichimoku line - and now it just broke out very powerful above the trend line....just my thought. I will be buying on the dips now.

As you all know - the dow always tries to test the breakout point......

Again just my thoughts.

Looking at the weekly chart, rsi & macd Have topped out & looks like there could be a correction coming but Looking at The daily chart, yesterday filled the gap & 50ma from Wednesday was support & Trendline held. I think if the rsi can stay above 50 on the daily & the 50ma level holds then more upside. But I don't like the looks of the weekly chart.

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Y23Z1IIY4y0fCc84E%3D

Possibly the first signs of some panic coming into the markets....certainly hasn't happen yet.
The key levels to watch are on the chart....
below 33550 would be a lower/low....or 1,2,3 high..

This always bounces back....every time i think its in trouble it bounces from the key technical levels/area and continues higher...
Lets see if the same happens again...
If those numbers/levels fall....expect a strong fall as it should then provide the catalyst for the move imho.

lets see
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend