remo wrote:
If it turns out, that the Gilead Sciences vaccine doesn't work, my word, this will fall out of the sky.

Or if, as you say it, (That agent orange is one crazy fool. ) lets people back and it continues to surge, that will make things worse for the long run.

We can only watch, especially as I didn't buy anything, it stings a little

dow- weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...OAzDu3I6IjxCygSII%3D

most of the action on dow for the last couple of weeks has been centered around the 200 day ema line on the weekly chart....always a key level imvho....
currently at 23832....

its Friday today....bulls seem determined to take control...if we are trading the chart then its important to see if we get a convincing weekly close above that level today...

with the dow nothing is certain i would not be surprised to see it fail imho...
Off course close above 823 should give us the strength for higher...towards the 200 day on the daily.

atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend

Libero" post=16747]I understand the markets are forward thinking - and we should always trade what we see.

I thought one of the reasons the market jumped up is because Agent Orange said he's opening up the country, alongside news of Gilead, and Roche and others too.




That agent orange is one crazy fool. I’m just shocked Americans still love him even thou it’s so dam obvious he is a serial liar and a retard who will do any thing to stay in power. He does not care about the people but himself..I think the worlds gone mad recently as we have trump in america and an equal fool with boris over here. I hear people want boris Knighted for recovering from corona, even thou he was the reason UK has the worst stats in Europe for deaths related to corona due to his herd mentality idea which in the end got him the virus.

It’s crazy people that believes in people like them that are proberbly pushing the markets higher ...lol.....but once reality sets in then it will all correct as it’s just common sence.
So in the mean time you have to trade what you see and don’t get so emotional with just one side trade (short)even thou it’s obvious.
Hope everyone is keeping well in these crazy times

I understand the markets are forward thinking - and we should always trade what we see, plus a stop loss about 50,000 billion points wide this time!

But! I reckon something is being missed / overlooked - call it a disconnect. chain links within the global supply chain is broken, not on pause; broken.

We've got a build up of serious problems (from health issues being allowed to build up and fester, to economic depressions, and debt).

I thought one of the reasons the market jumped up is because Agent Orange said he's opening up the country, alongside news of Gilead, and Roche and others too.

That being said, I learnt about a decade ago (from a guy i know here - take a bow Remo!), to trade the charts - thinking about the rest will make us go mad.


I wish everyone here good health, and let's keep these message boards going, I think it has been great during this time of isolation and crisis!

Shares of Gilead Sciences Inc soared 15% on Thursday after a media report suggested that severe COVID-19 patients were positively responding to the drugmaker's experimental treatment remdesivir.
A Chicago hospital treating COVID-19 patients with the antiviral medication as part of a trial is seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms, with nearly all patients discharged in less than a week, according to medical news website STAT

This is the reason markets jumped so much...

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...f4RH62QaRQAlZvXZ8%3D

That's the Dow for us!! just when you think a decent drop will happen....
up it goes....and if it gaps up above this wedge for what will be a second higher high then it really is bye bye to the bears imvho...

Looks like trumps is starting to open up the lockdown already!
i thought they were a few weeks behind us?!?

if the markets start seeing that the worst of this is over and we are past the peak...then the upside could well be strong here....we may even make new highs in a week or two!!
bonkers

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

remo wrote:
24300 was a beauty, but you're right, this one goes to 25200 (which is 61.8 by my reckoning - happy to be corrected).

And yep Remo, it is brutal - losses are so damned hard to take - it's like pushing a rock up a mountain trying to get the cash back.

But, I'm not sure there's serious strength - i don't know that much to be fair, but this move up wasn't built on any strong foundation (apart from the Fed maybe!)

Yep....gone crazy.....I had to close my shorts for a big loss....then reversed to long.....
It looks like it’s heading towards the 61.8 fib....I will look to short at that level now...and not before..,
Serious strength in the markets.......

longterm_view wrote:
I'll hold on for now....

Massive Spike some +700 points on the Dow after the close.

markets like death and disease. who would have thunk it!

chief66 wrote:
Looks like a H&S to coincide, with TF’s support line.

Heading very close to 22770

If it closes below 23300 would it correct to assume a bearish signal down possibly to 21000?,

Nice chart trendfriend.

Libero wrote:

Sorry, wave 5 down.

I believe we are in wave 4, I think we have topped out and this is the start of wave 5 down, the last in the move.

Then I will get off my hands, (they are going numb) and start buying.

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Ycgdtwz1oj4hCjbtw%3D

a lot of stocks seemed to have a unusual type of triangle/wedge sort of formation....almost like a strange type of bear flag...

some of them have broken below those triangles in the last few days...does seem to be a change in sentiment this week imho...

Looking at the dow here on the daily....this also looks to be in this triangle or wedge type of formation...
its also very close to the bottom of the support line...
i make it 23300 (ish) for break below....and it could well provide the momentum trigger for a new phase down....especially if we see the 20 day ema line currently at 22770 taken our as well...

lets see...take it easy folks....and stay safe...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

longterm_view wrote:
up or down?

Is this the start of the wave 5.

Trendfriend wrote:
Indeed TrendFriend,

JPM reckons US GPD will shrink 40% *annualised* in Q2. (again, lots depending on Q3/Q4).

I think Mo El Erian nailed recently when asked about the "flick the swtich" analogy that so many Market Bulls hold. Massive the hit to the US economy - bigger than the 1930s. Unemployment is already (just a month in) at 14-15% - heading to 20% which is double the financial crisis.

The bull case which was dismanted was around the following points:

1. re-open the economy quickly (already knocked back)

2. flcking the switch will mean return to near-full recovery mode (not possible if businesses are out of business or made lay-offs. It will take longer and will be sequential)

3. No scars over the longer time (how can something like this be forgotten so quickly?)


The reality:

1. more indebted

2. less productive

3. less globalised

But look, I don't have the charts (yet) to back up a bearish case, and the market is forward thinking and always gives companies and alchemists a pass.

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...gvsSqvDA/Nlr3J6w+JE=

Be interesting to see which way this goes this week...
looked very bullish last week....

I think the market will at some point realise that this is not going to be a quick fix...flick a switch and we are back to normal again...it may take months if not years to get back pre virus in terms of the economy.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52236936

If this is going to be this bad...then logic would suggest the market should also have the worst drop since the 30's
off course the fed have their own ideas!

have a good week folks....
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Thanks Remo, much appreciated.

When this wave ends, we can work out, where wave 5 will end.

I think the high of the wave is done, slow decline from now, company earnings may be bad.

longterm_view wrote:
How’s this for a count? Chart 1.

If it’s 3 waves, Chart 2?[/quote]

I like the second chart....it looks like you have got the idea of waves..,.the abc, would be the 4th wave....so I’d label that so won’t get confused...
Both of your charts can be right...just depends on the time frames ....

longterm_view wrote:
Thank you LongTerm - was wondering if the numbers vary based on EoD vs 24 hours.

Libero wrote:
Libero

25220, 61.8% fib on Dow.

longterm_view wrote:
LongTerm, tell me what number do you have for 61.8%?

Unmployment ticked up again in the US, and it could be at 25% by May. Now, I know the market is forward thinking, but where's the structure, the plan.

lots of questions!

Libero wrote:
Well that’s the 50% fib gone, only the 61.8% to hold it back.

If not

how many times did the Dow bounce of 23677 (or thereabouts) just in the last 75 minutes....

crazy...

BIT of new from other side of the pond:
Wall Street jumped at the open on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve rolled out a $2.3 trillion program to bolster local governments and businesses, while the initial jobless claims slipped to 6.6 million last week from an upwardly revised 6.87 million the prior week

dow - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...5LN3CjyDhV1IFin4o%3D

the futures have come off 23711....
the 200 day sma is at 23686....the 200 day ema line is at 23818.

be interesting to see if this area gets busted....long weekend coming up....
The dow is making higher highs...but strong resistance from these levels now...if the bears are going to make come back...it should be from around here imvho...so lets see..

atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

only 800 points more and we will find out

I normally post with some of my positions showing so it’s easy to see where I entered on a trade...
With waves,,,,,,normally down moves correct in 3 waves and some times it helps to get in early after the 3 wave down as you then can expect the next wave up ...obviously that’s based on up markets m, reverse for down markets...
But based on simple waves you can roughly get an idea of the direction based on strong trends...
Don’t ask me about wave counts...lol....just try and keep it simple....[/quote]

How’s this for a count? Chart 1.

If it’s 3 waves, Chart 2?

Just a bit of news

Dow Futures Gain As Congress Mulls $500 Billion in Fresh Support; Coronavirus Concerns Keep Global Stocks in Check
Stocks continue to track coronavirus infection rates amid a dearth in hard economic data following the wipe out of last night's 900 point rally for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

I missed the start of that 5 min candle at 20:45 but aside from it's size, what surprised me is that if gapped up at the start.

You only normally see gaps on a futures chart between Friday close and Sunday open - not during actual market open.

Really weird.

longterm_view wrote:

I normally post with some of my positions showing so it’s easy to see where I entered on a trade...
With waves,,,,,,normally down moves correct in 3 waves and some times it helps to get in early after the 3 wave down as you then can expect the next wave up ...obviously that’s based on up markets m, reverse for down markets...
But based on simple waves you can roughly get an idea of the direction based on strong trends...
Don’t ask me about wave counts...lol....just try and keep it simple....

Libero wrote:
Yep,,,saw the move,,,,it took my nice longs out pretty quickly, it actually dropped over 200 points in 30 sec or less...
One minute I’m Long then I’m shot then I’m long and now I’m short...this is day trading....

Libero,

I watched it and was amazed.

I think the dow reversed a 1000 point gain.

2000 dot.com bear market

2000 Aug 2001 Mar -29%
2001 Mar 2001 May +22%
2001 May 2001 Sep -28%
2001 Sept 2002 Jan +24%
2002 Jan 2002 Aug -34%

2008 GFC

2007 Oct 2008 Mar -20%
2008 Mar 2008 May +15%
2008 May 2008 Dec -44%
2008 Dec 2009 Jan +18%
2009 Jan 2009 Mar -28%

2020 CV bear market

2020 Feb 2020 Mar -35%
2020 Mar 2020 Mar +20.5% (so far)

average next down leg (-28+-44)/2 = -36%

2756 x .64 = 1763 downside target


Sorry this should have been posted in the S&P 500

Did any of you good people monitor / watch the US markets near the close last night (just after 20:45 I believe?) there was a mad downward spike, it wiped up any desire for the bulls to take back some control.

it was a hell of a sight (Like LFC beating Barca - that one is for TF! )

chart attached to show the moment (and it was a moment!) that I'm refering to in the 5min Dow.

Remo,

Many thanks for clarifying. It really helps with analysing it all.

I would usually wait for the 1-2-3 target to hit, before exiting the trade, but I see you use multiple time frames. Interesting.

I suppose it helps that you know what wave we are in. I looked at that once.

Many thanks for all your help, it is much appreciated.

Now I’ve gone long on the Dow....
As you can see I’m always willing to change direction pretty quickly...
But there is a head and shoulders formation on the hourly so keep an eye on that....If it drops below 22350 then I’d go short again...

I use hourly charts a lot for bigger direction, and use 5 and 1 minute charts for earlier entry...

Overall I’m still expecting the indexes to go lower in the medium term...But look to the charts for clearer direction

"there's a hundred different ways to win a football game" quote from Jurgen Klopp....(lifelong Liverpool fan here)

well there's a hundred different ways to analyse these markets as well!
They could all be right.... and they could all be wrong...
Its what make a unique and dynamic market place...
for me i was watching the weekly chart...

dow - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...zp65hI+x+bkA47oryD8=
i was watching the 200 day sma as well as the 200 day ema line on the weekly....
had feeling it was going to test that level.... very often a bearish index or stock turns just short of key retest level...so i caught it as it was falling.....only to see it rally back....but then it got smashed into the close.....

if we are talking about retesting.... how about a retest of the falling t/line on the broadening triangle then?
dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...yCLj4JHfVrbcA3W9c%3D

good luck all....and keep banking those coins everyone...but most importantly stay safe and healthy during these testing times..
atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend

longterm_view wrote:
Hi long term,
Yes, but I watch closely before entering....also it was after the third wave move down that I new it was likely to be the next up wave back up....
I’m now short on the Dow....lol...seen how the markets were turning down fast....

This entry was also based on a potential 123 high n the hourly...

Dow more or less opened at the gap and just declined from there. This coincided with FTSE 123 low resistance at 5780 ish today.

Watch out for the gaps, fibs and trendlines

Good call trendfriend.

I think Jerome's gonna need a bigger bazooka

remo wrote:
Remo, many thanks for the charts and info.

I understand why you took the 1-2-3 low trade, on the daily basis.

Did you take the first trade,(based on your chart above) on the hourly? Was it a breakout of the consolidation? As attached chart?

Many thanks in advance.

Paitech wrote:
didn't i say I must have misread it.


anyway, the markets are pulling back.

Fear and Fomo bring out the same emotions in people.....i think we are seeing both of those in these markets!

The expectations of the market and the reality is way apart imvho....

Does look like the p/b has started....grabbed a short....lets see...
Looks like a race to the exits....and this should close down now imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Libero wrote:
Libero, if you read it, TF was surprised why the air lines were up.
Debt is a problem, but today the survival was more important, and hence easyjet up.
They would need to survive first and debt can be dealt with later on....

Paitech wrote:
Excuse me Paitech, I must have misread it...

The Dow thread, the markets, easyjet rising amongst others.... I figured you meant the markets are up because of easyjet

Anyway, I get what you mean - they've been given a life-line. Still, my position on DEBT stands.

Debt will weigh heavily once the eurphoria passes.

Libero, its about Easyjet. I read without that money, by june it would have been close the shop...
so eventhough its debt, that lets it carry on more....
Most business runs on Debt, not on full cash....

The Dow is very close to exiting bear market territory remarkably. 23640 is the target.