updated chart -

+div still in place...bounce then more down imo. half way into the correction...next move will be quick Heavy thrust down...then new highs from from 14200-14500 zone.. specif targets to be assessed when near those levels

14900 key area

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_Jun04v2.JPG




added potential moves over till end of June...




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_6th%20June.JPG

I reckon that was the end of wave A of 4. Any views?

Tell me about it. I had considerable success trading indices in March/April. Volatility provided by Italian elections and Cyprus situation were catalysts.
I got carried away, started to trade impulsively, and paid the price.
Now, I am relearning T/A's, and doing mock trades.Intensive practice and then start trading again.
your website is helping a lot.

on the dow i always place 40 point stops.
That dow trade stop has already activated
With the dow and currency markets its best to use around 40 point stop due to the volatility.
If theres no stops attached then it can become emotional .

Hello Remo,
Do you always place a 40 pt stop ?

Im already long on this with a 40 point stop on a first attempt basis.
Its currently fighting The trend line support.
this is a day trade for me and a bit risky as its not the main trend line support.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow5thjune.png

+div on 60min

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 14534 here based on this wave count, the 38 Fib and the support from the wave 4 subwave low at 14444:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily05_06_13.gif

Isn't the chart below showing a H&S top? seems like it retested on the chart below and now should head down towards the target?

no Shorty - bounce from 15080 (dow hit 15096) to 15157 - price needs to stay capped for retest of the lows...and we just hit that 157 level and should start to reverse back down imo..

so now poss gradual ping pong 157- 114 or lower.... your trade should be free.... if goes abv this then test of 200 poss

Closed half, I had moved my stop on the other half to 148 but you're thinking above 157 for a stop?

B)watch 114 > 15080 > 14980 approx & 15157 area for bounce. will provide update later - enjoy the rideShotry wrote:

I think that was probably a Tom Cruise quote!. I'm watching it

i know, i know ....im just kidding.. dow needs to break down below 212 > 198 take out 178/86 for continued down or else it'll reverse then watch 257... keep banking profitShotry wrote:

You can always be 'shorter'!

Sure does, although the main triangle lower TD developed through 23rd may to 31st may .. if your short what you worried abt - you greedy sod ! watch for a break of 15200 area Shotry wrote:

screencast.com/t/g8gqNNDP3e

That make any sense to you WS?

I missed the top of the triangle (annoyed with myself), but am short.

just to clarify i dont think the bottom is in yet - looking for maybe a 5-3-5 formation or flat with dow tentative target of 14500 ( re-asses see nearer the time and once it take some key levels out... this rally im considering a B wave for now at least.WaveSurfer wrote:

update chart... ~15257/62 > 15320/340 to watch, you can see what happened when dow failed to hold 340 (orange line) on backtest.. this will be an area to watch - inflection point should it get there...




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_Jun04v1.JPG

time ltd this week, hope everyone is all good !

Thank you to all of you for your replies. I use 'Saxo' bank as my platform and their charting service.The levels for Thu 30th were 15396.9 and 15277 during market hours - 2.30 pm to 9.00 pm UK time.
I do pay $0.75 per month subscriber fee.
As the feed is for trading CFD's, numbers are for Futures.
I think it does pay to have an independent charting software package separate from the trading platform, as Remo keeps on saying

Hi Traderme.

They were the cash prices. Sorry for not being clear.

i use a calculaor and log both open and closing prices... old fashioned...

so if you use jacks numbers... then todays big number should have been 15340...

why ?????

well 15281 - 15399 = 118 points / 2 = 59
59+15281= 15340

now if you look at todays action, it broke down from 15340 that level in futures.. on market opening it tested that level, pulled back ( put in a handle) then smashed through it ....

just one of many methods..

what a market

Traderme wrote:
We get our prices from the charting software we use.
Jackozy uses Updata and there charting software has a live feed to the markets as such.
I use metastock pro and thats the same as they get there prices from the markets.Metastock pro is powered by reuters.
when using proper charting software it should be reliable as prices are coming from the exchange as such. You have to pay a small fee for this.
hope that helps
remo

Thanks for your informative posts.
I am curious as to know where you got yesterday's high and low figured for Dow,cash or futures index?

I'm waiting to go long if/when it gets to the channel support (unless there are warning signs). Yesterday was an inside bar but the covering candle was big so stops would need to be very wide to trade that correctly.

I have the key numbers for today as short below 15281 and long above 15399 - yesterday's low and high respectively. There could also be a triangle in play which would fit a possible wave 4 in this 3 of 3:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily31_05_13.gif

Considering a short at the break of 15157 - 123 high. only considering mind

And just for a bit of fun - for those who really like to play the long game...



Also, a nice short read on the DOW (with charts):

www.rinkeyinvestments.com/resources/wall-street-myths.php

updated as per Spx thread...

channel continues...

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_may29v1.JPG



cheers WS

Fibonacci is great isn't it....numbers are hotter B-)

Yes, exactly. Thanks remo.

To put it another way: Height of wave 1 + wave 2 low = 14089 in this case.

jonamacg83 wrote:
ill try and explain it
say for example you had 3 waves. 1,2,and 3.
the 100% is basically the height of wave 1 projected from the bottom of wave 2 giving a target for wave 3. so wave 3 minimum is expected to move 100% from the bottom of wave 2.
The 100% was placed automatically from the software.
thats how you project a fib. in the simplest form.

Hi Jackozy, that is great thanks, the only bit I do not understand is why the 100% was placed at 14089?

jonamacg83 wrote:
Hi jonamacg83,

The Fib positions are determined by the placement of the 0% level, not the 100% level. They're extensions of the 4 June 2012 to 5 Oct 2012 move, not retracements. They're used to see where possible resistances will be whereas retracement Fibs are used to look for supports.

If you don't have a Fib extension tool then use the retracement one but do it upside down from, in this case, 5 Oct 2012 down to 4 June 2012 and then move the whole Fib sequence to the Nov 2012 low and you should get the same result.

Hope that helps.

Zoomed out view with the channel clearly to be seen

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow23rdmay1.png

Hi jona

Thats the fib projection on jackozy chart.
hope that answer the question ...
jonamacg83 wrote:

Thats the way i see it J one more up then larger degree correction to follow assuming those numbers mentioned in the last few posts hold up.......

Great chart and very insightful - the only question I have is why did you put the 100% mark where you have?

Never mind about the Fed and all that bluster! Technicals say it all and this was simply the top of the channel for both the Dow and S&P. In addition, the S&P hit it's 161.8% Fib extension at the same time. Here's the Dow daily:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily22_05_13.gif

I note that my channel support is some way from yours remo - I have 14888. The Dow exceeded its 161.8% extension of the 4/6/12 to 5/10/12 move.

Here's the S&P daily:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/S%26P500daily22_05_13.gif

Similar channel but this time the 161.8% extension of the same move as the Dow came into play so a double whammy of resistance.

There's a real possibility in my mind that this is the wave 4 belonging to the sequence up from 4 June 2012 lows. The only thing that's bothering me about that is that the move up from Nov lows appears to have 7 subwaves to it and there really should be 9 so there's a chance that this correction may not be too bad and there's a final wave up to follow before the larger degree wave 4 which would take a few months to play out.

If there is another move up to come then remo's trendline ought to hold. If not then the target retrace for the Dow would be close to the breakout point at 14200 (assuming a 38.2% Fib target). The same level for the S&P is 1557.

Just my view but in both cases there ought to be some more upside due at some point before the big crash down, perhaps next summer (ie after the 5 waves up from March 2009 lows).

Im planning on going long on a first attempt basis at 14929 for today. This level changes every day.
If the dow goes below 15265 today then this should head towards that trend line.(by looks of things its gonna open with a gap down today).
This is a trend line play and should only be done during market hours with a 40 point stop.
If that trend line fails to stop this correction then look for a deeper correction that may last a few months.
Below that trend line could open up low 14367(38.2 fib).
This could be the long awaited correction that ive mentioned a while back.Go away in May and come back in October senerio.

Dow Hit 156 ftse hit break out point.. ..

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_may22v1.JPG

www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testim...ernanke20130522a.htm

scale back or increase.... media playing to the sound of the music, market needed an excuse to sell off... moves were parabola on most indices...

long weekend comin up on both sides of the pond...

watch approx >377/88 > 401 (50%) >419 > 487> retest of highs, failure to exceed that and it starts to reverse down then supports 260> 237>158> ****5122/00***> 14900 > 14500 & ultimately a retest of dow breakout.

***v.imp

dow found decent support 260 / spx 1648 if that fails again then lower we go...

will pop an updated chart when i get a min...
cheers WS

The trend is still up - surely?

Ben's statement elevated the markets to new highs; The digestion of the news was interpreted as a negative, and yet, yet, yet, at no point did the Fed say anything about slowing or stopping. If anything, the Fed re-iterated that support will continue until the Unemployment rate drops to 6.5%.

In my humble view - minus chart - the market will continue upwards.

Comments from the Fed that they may start scaling back scale back bond purchases, perhaps as early as June.

Tom aka MD

A hint of ending QE

Any ideas what just happened to cause a 250 point drop over the last few hours?

Shooting star?

inside bar formed on 5mins... needs to get over 419 to for any chance of retest of todays highs.WaveSurfer wrote:

Parabola, keep saying it .....

extended channel hit... whats' next... looks like it want go higher.... break below lower channel then down it goes

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_may21v1.JPG

From the daily chart it seems that the DOW has been moving up within a channel since mid Nov 2012.

About a month ago I noted a hammer/long lower shadow candlestick pattern on the daily candle (www.stocktradingfundamentals.com ... k_patterns) after a bit of pull. The DOW has since moved more than 800 points. Today there is a long upper shadow considered as a bearish signal, will that hold true????



www.dropbox.com/s/wfa6d5ujne3qk4h/DOW%20D%2020.05.12.png