Trying to understand if we are still in the main wave 3 of 5, looking at the weekly chart back from march 2009

c.rt7.t.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/s...2e74001dc20c2c7b2d5b

updated chart from this morning.... a rally abv todays futures high be a good start and then we assess the moves from there on in... number of pips it rallys n pullbacks and so on....

also asc tri break out from 14802/06 on smaller timeframes





dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_21june13v2.JPG

hmmmmm.... up imo - dyr, spx 76/77 satifies A=C scenario at a minimum, + div at that level and the biggest rally of 17/18 pips from todays lows, along with candles...

requires confirmation..... and not out the woods yet

cheers WS

and then down again Remo?
Things are looking a wee bit bearish, I took some money off the table on Tuesday, looks like I will hold it in cash for a little while !

Hows that for a perfect back test.
shows you the power of charts

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow21stjune.png

GC - sounds abt right....

J - yep you guessed right.... here modified..

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/DowhourlyMACD.jpg




rgds WS
Jackozy wrote:

Wavesurfer,

I think I am thinking along similar lines to yourself - posted this earlier elsewhere.

---

"Seems to have bounced here at the 100sma as suspected.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/63552262/Cha..._DAILY_-_21-6-13.png

I think a retracement to 14965, 15030/50 or 15110 (key fib levels with some S/R levels to boot - as per 4H chart below) is on the cards before another leg down.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/63552262/Cha...W_-_4H_-_21-6-13.png

Some of the guys who use EWT may have an opinion on that."

Cheers WS.

I'm guessing you're referring to the "double dip" in MACD lines back on late Oct and early Nov 2012? Here's the hourly chart (sorry about the buy/sell triggers):



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/DowhourlyMACD.gif

PS The classes are very hard work - languages are not my forte!

updated chart - dow futures currently up (leaving a gap from yesterdays close) and could stage a rally (oversold) to the retracement levels highlighted - usually these have been approx 50-70% and sufficient enough to close the gap around 15110 (spx 1608-20) levels but before that 14960, 15050 area....then i'm expecting last final wave down to complete this correction to around 14400/500 levels for now.

could be volatile today with triple witching and opex....

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_21june13.JPG




WS

nice GC -150/200 pip rally from here then your target possible .....14440/500 1st

np - yes i recall u mention the polish classes... hope its going well...

post me cash chart with standard macd n i'll highlight the area's - i assume 1hr is now -10 ?

21/24 June & 4th July....

Like you guys, I have been in this move from ~15220 with target @ 14300 or the 200sma on the Daily, whichever comes first.




I do think a bounce at this level on the daily chart is possible though as both 100sma and the 23.6% may provide some sort of resistance, even if it is soft or intermediate. I think it fits in with your counts possibly.

Fully expect further moves down, maybe even past 14300, but that is where I will be happy taking profit. If the market gives me it of course.

WS - sorry, no, I don't remember the dates. Also not sure about what you're referring to with the MACD.

Sorry to be a bit slow - my brain has boiled this week with it being >30C in the shade, starting intensive Polish language classes and almost no sleep.

I did have orders to go short yesterday at c. 15400 but sadly missed this move.

u bet - here's tip - just observe the MACd on 60min chart and look left to last int correction back in nov12...

J - you remember those 2 dates i gave on chat ?

note the macd level in particular and the setup

It's exactly the right sort of area for a bounce to form wave 2 of C too if the target area for the low of C is c. 14500ish

i see 5 waves down, 886 worth a long scalp/short cover here.. if you took one and good area to unleash some shorts, then more down after bounce

not crazy at all remo - makes perfect sense...

This is already down 230 points. The interesting bit is if this breaks past 14844 ,at that point this would be down 270 points. My point is if that level gets taken out then this could move a massive amount today. Even 500 points. I know it sounds crazy but remember quadruple witching is tomorrow so some people would be getting ready for that already. Thats probably whats driving this markets volatility currently???????. Normally the dow dont drop more than 300 points in a day.
I normally go long at a trend line and the nearest trend line is at 14577. If that level gets tested today then i will be going long with a 40 point stop. This will only be for today only and not tomorrow.
I wont be placing any trades tomorrow due to witching hours....Dont want to be burnt at the stake just yet Im no witch.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow20thjune.png

update chart - no change in view, still expect lower lows as per previous post's.

dow @ key zone in futures market. 14975-54.

wave C




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_20June.JPG

rgds WS

The level to watch on the dow for today are:
up above 15206
down below 14953


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow17thjune.png

If the dow can take out 15206 during market hours then it should head towards the 123 low breakout level at 15301. Once this is cleared then the up trend would resume and not before.
So the most important level to watch is 15300

S&P was the Daddy yesterday remo:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...500daily13_06_13.gif

Perfect trendline play. I think we're in wave 3 of 5 of Primary 3 now. As you say, needs to break the lower highs to confirm.

The dow has rallied hard today. Theres a 123 formation on the dow forming and once it breaks above 15305 then it could mean the highs being taken out again.So the main area to watch is 15305 for the breakout.
Early signal will come once 15241 gets taken out.

So up above 15241
down below 14953


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow13thjune.png

bang bang

may get a bounce then look for yellow highlighted areas 110-157-187 zone....more down to come imo.

short the bounces/rallies.

spx 1414 under pressure...

Wave C.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_Jun12.JPG





rgds WS

bottom number hit 110/80




WaveSurfer wrote:

not always, just find the 4hour useful for swings and detecting signs of possible reversals...filter out noise seen on smaller time frames, also been trading this channel on the 4hr for quite some time now and it's served me well - morph through all timeframes generally... ... in the meantime a 15110 just hit in futures - be interesting the types of candle form at this level in various time frames....... cheers WSTraderme wrote:

Wave Surfer, why do you always base your wave projections on the 4 hr charts?
Thanks.

Futures just hit the channel support:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowchannel.png

Bull flag?

.....possibly wave ((a))now complete.

Amo wrote:
Hi Amo,

Here are your options:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowhourly.gif

I mentioned 15278 in our chat the other day so I went short there but I've just closed it at 15180. Will wait and see now....

Cheers

any move abv yesterdays high (tagged the top end of the channel and broke down) then this wave will start to look impulsive...a break down below 187>157 > *15110/80* > 15030 then almost certain wave B completed at the recent highs... should 15157/110 area hold and bounce then that will setup the right shoulder.... key level.

should the inv H&S form and play out then target is approx 15500+

assuming wave B = 15300 close to 61.8% retracement from lows.
on WAVE A = WAVE C = 14600

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_Jun11.JPG

rgds WS

Hi Jackozy,

Would it be more likely this is a wave B based on the 5 waves prior to this? If its a wave 1 does that mean the waves are starting again and what would that make the wave down just before this one?

Thanks
Amo

And the question is....



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dow15min.gif

Any takers?

Here's the updated channel chart, couple of thing going on here - dow back tested the previous high back in april, also strong move of that level and finish for the week

Also those +divergence i talked abt even remained at the lows kicked in - and the results are there to see once dow took out that 15030 level

also couple of patterns going on to keep an eye on - inv H&S maybe forming along with Bull flag.

i'm still seeing this as as B wave counter rally with another lower low to come - however the next pullback will be telling to whether indeed a bottom is in or not..... what a week, the volatility will be the norm from here on in - big moves

EOD - Dow - clear view of bullflag and april backtest of highs...







dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_Jun08.JPG


WaveSurfer wrote:

loved it

hope you enjoyed surfing with me & J amo !

if it finishes like this then possible correction over. Then the highs may be next.
look for a 123 low set up to verify.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow7thjune.png

Quite a whipsaw on the FTSE, which has since moved up and is now fighting with the downtrend line on the hourly - might be an interesting afternoon!

you got your surf board out mate?

If anybody free today come on to chat. Work is quiet for once. (famous last words).

for those that like to surf the waves

NFP double barrel sword today... good numbers then more noise abt fed tapering, bad numbers then the noise is quelled for the time being....






dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/DOW_1hr_wave.JPG

Wave Surfer thanks for your encouraging words.Patience for trading at the right levels,actively v over trading are disciplines that I learning.
I still am so tempted to trade when I see US indices at levels yesterday and last Fri. Then I stop myself, as I don't have a clear plan.
Your charts and analysis do make understanding markets easier.

'Moral of the story....take profits while they're there'

Amen to this!

Good old Dow ...made a good recovery . I was short on this index and made a nice profit. Its a shame that I could not make more I was also short on the ftse and made a profit on that one that also got bailed out .
Moral of the story....take profits while there there. I did.... ...with trading you should look to take profits regularly and don't be greedy.
That's the best way to survive trading the indexes . You also don't have to be in the market every day. When it's sunny go enjoy yourself.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow...un04v2%20upclose.JPG




close up of that chart below - nice looking candles - daily spx n dow look a peach..

Hey traderme, that statement remind me of myself...when i started trading it was really blind, got whipped then for a whole year all i did is study and watched the market movements specifically looking at price on most indices and they way they fucntion along with learning how moves unfold and at what price, once i was happy with my system i started paper trader for 6 months, only when the P was greater than the L i jumped in and the rest is history...pure discipline required esp on indices... i trade all time frames , scalp to long term trades etc... each chart provides different levels... to get to the point there is no harm in relearning in fact market dynamics forces us to continue learning.... best of luck pal. --Traderme wrote:

that "A" label in 14800's is now tentative.... + div kicks in on Dow if it can get abve 15030... lots of work still do... this is only bounce for now....

14973/65

cheers
WaveSurfer wrote:

Hi Gee, hope you're well.

The 100% Fib is there because that is the 100% extension of the initial drop plotted from the lower high (ie wave a of A extended from the top of b of A). This gives possible projections for wave c of A.

My blog is at www.FTSECharts.com but all the entries are copied onto the Chartsview blog which you can access at the top. Ronnie and remo have kindly set it up so that they're all transferred automatically here.

Cheers.

hi
Just wondering, why have you got purple 100% fib at 15154? I am sure there is a great reason, but I cant see it!
Thanks
Gee

Hi Jackozy

Where is your blog???

I enjoy reading your posts.

Thanks
Gee

Hi J - big waves abc 3 wave move. internal structure will consist of wave of 3's and 5's, so final C will have 5.


also area's u mention looks a good spot

trade well my friend....

Yep, nice WS. I'm looking at 14921 (23.6% Fib of the wave 3) with a stop below the previous breakout level at 14887 for a nifty long here. It's been pointed out to me on my blog that the 161.8% extension of the initial drop is also at 14934 too so there's a few levels to look at there:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...owdaily05_06_13a.gif

PS Shouldn't your wave C projection have 5 subwaves not 3? (Unless you're counting it as a double three?)