Thanks that's brilliant chart and analysis Waverider.
have to agree this looks very weak, and to me i think its looks medium term weak.
Not even going to try to trade it tho!! way too risky for me!

atb,
trendfriend

Thank you for the update. I have been following the Dow and S&P lately and the lower low being breached is a red flag i think. I have been watching the S&P 500 and the recent rejection at the previously called support does look worrying. I watch the 4hours to begin with so here it is...the bearish candle, still with one hour to go to complete the candle

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...lJNGRQz/5OA4JAleIoc=

Been a while folks... hope all are keeping well.
Looking at the dow after a while...some early warning signs for me.
Failed to make a higher high and currently making lower lows and breaking below the recent range. Also according to this advfn chart...testing the 200 day ema line on the daily chart.

No need for panic i think just yet...just be aware possibly a period of consolidation coming up?!
Which can see big down moves possibly...

Keep well folks..
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Sorry for the delay in posting as was way to busy with testing Fulgent Ai add on...

This went trough the 61.8 fib not perfect but then reversed nicely.

@remo please can you share a chart on this? many thanks

p.s. hope you are well

The dow just hit the 61.8 fib level from recent move higher...

So here is my view.

The recent low was not taken out - and there seems to be a lot of push to avoid that. So basically a failed move down which could be very bullish .

I have taken a long position on Friday just in case

I have got 32500 as the next junction where its going up or down...support, now resistance.

My view is that if this is taken out by volume, that would null the down move.

Anyone has another view?

So, yes this is definitely possible. The recent bullish move was stopped which means a failed move - normally it can come down fast. Last week was a damn bad looking bearish weekly candle.
28000 very possible- let’s put it this way, no way I am going long .

It’s mucked up my long term sipps stocks I topped up in Aug last year (exactly 6 months ago), but I don’t want to sell buy sell buy these long term things.

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...9nsG8mR1VS8BmtcxLLM=

target 28,000 i think imho.

Looks like the fear is here!

stay safe folks and wait for the dust to settle.
warning signs were in the charts...how far will we fall is the question??

will be some bargains coming up imho..

atb, wdik,dyor
Trendfriend

dow daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...N1gbIeKaHnxN%2F5M%3D

Thought it was possibly a bull flag and it would break higher.
Caution here short term at least imvho. This type of triangle breakdown usually lead to further falls.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Hey Remo,
Thanks for the update and the list..

If you want I can be your sons personal driver, and you can trade for me with my money?

I am sure thats a great offer? lol I am not joking...

Good to see you busy and your sons games. Hopefully soon to be seen in Wimbledon, wishing him all the best.
Please reserve 4 seats for me too for Wimbledon

Hi paitech
I’m good just really busy with life and being my sons personel driver. I’m taking him all over the place for tennis tournaments.

For the Dow, it will be the highs.
Ive mainly got US shares in my SIPP.
Only have a handful of UK shares.

Air bnb
Ally Financial
Alphabet
Amazon
American Express
Anglo American
Apple
Blink Charging
Carnival
Fidelity china
Fisker
Fuel cell
GKP
Hydrogen utopia
Intel
Lloyds bank
Match group
Moderna
Powerhouse
Qunatumscape
Rivian
Solid power
Tesla
Uipath
Versarian
Wizz air

These are my current long term shares. Some of these are high risk but majority are good for future. Ive been in these for a year now and loads of them have been averaged out as been buying them since last June. Majority of these shares will be held for a minimum of 5 years as I plan on retiring at 55. Some of these have moved loads recently but still should have a long way to go as most of them have signalled via a w formation or 123 low break outs.
Wizz air has an inverted head and shoulders breakout, and carnival looks like its breaking out as well…There’s so many shares like them out there.
Obviously my short term shares are different as I’m in and out on them.

Hey remo
Good to see you, how are you.
What target you have for Dow and ftse?
Do you have any specific shares in mind?
Are you talking about usa shares or uk?
Thanks G

New bull market has already started..
Loads of shares are looking like they’re getting ready to explode out.
DYOR
Remo

Dow Jones : Descending Broadening Wedge pattern... chart shows the target on weekly... people who are keen can check the validity of the formation... comments welcome, else I feel I am talking to self☺️. Very bullish mostly....

A close above 34000 looks very bullish

Guys, is it a massive reverse head and shoulders on dow?
Attached is the original one and upside down charts...
With target up to 37-38k? !!!

dow- daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...1g1H7Xj+iPlVAdN0GA4=

I wouldn't trust this market at the moment imvho.
Yes its broken above the falling resistance down trendline....but we didn't get a further big move up...
which is what we would normally get when trendlines get taken out as it should be a momentum trigger.

In fact this market as things stand today is still making lower lows and lower highs...
Add the bearish rsi div and another nice down move wouldn't be a big surprise imho.

Another possibility is sideways markets for some time....maybe months.

Lets see... i just don't think the bears are out of this game just yet!

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Not sure about a bulll run but certainly the move has some power.
I would be looking at the 34000 mark where I have got my resistance level. Potential consolidation but is looking good

That was a powerful move yesterday on dow 1200 points up to 33700!!!
And SnP and nasdaq moving high...

Have we seen bottom already at 28650 on dow or have we started new bull run?
I am on sidelines, with short term trades oy

Ta G

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...BnwhbtSE5th4FlWb0%3D

worth a short here 33,230.
stop 100.
not worth risking more...
will it breakout? lets see...i doubt it imvho...
also a bearish div on the rsi.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

According to my charts, I had 28650 buy on dow and 33k as target,which is achieved successfully. Now on sidelines.
Charts attached.
Market may get get out of the channel, but I am cautious and going cash or waiting for short opportunity. Not sure if your comments are few weeks too late Remo sir?!

Most index’s out there have all recently had 123 low formations breakouts. Hong Kong market had one today.
Ive started to take positions out again in my sipp for long term.
Hopefully the worst is behind us but its still to early to call. But things do look better on charts recently..
DYOR
Remo

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ll1eTt7yyUJ+iepPZww=

seeing some very low targets on these markets!
i mean seriously low.....

For now we had a almost perfect retest of 29600 area yesterday(June low)....which was strong support now turned strong resistance.

Next stop the low 26,000's...then below this nothing much in the way to see a retest of the covid lows imvho. The real fun starts if we loose that level. These markets have a real whiff of the 1930's to them imvho!

Careful in these markets imvho...market is dangerous for longs esp...indeed for any trades tbh.
for now while below 29,600 target is 26,100.

Stay safe and keep well.
atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend

Umm,,,
It looks like the bears have taken control again…
So back on the sidelines for me..
Every rally recently has been sold into so it looks like the bear market is getting ready for one last almighty push lower…
DYOR
Remo

Trendfriend, thanks for the charts and info.

I don't think we've seen the low yet, but Remo is usually right.

Only time will tell.

some quick charts....done these in a hurry but i think you'll see the point i'm making...

dow- daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...FVietcJCadc8+tKF3kA=

dax- daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Zv1ZYWZhIdUJrYmbE%3D

ftse - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...HrcIEyv%2FBN2FpCY%3D

Can see on all of these indexes the down trend lines are intact and all are making lower highs and lower lows!
On the dow the jan down trend line was tested and we got reversal bang on that line...
Always a key to direction is the market reaction on trendlines..
A gap above and bulls in charge....this clearly (so far at least) failed...

I would question if the bear has even started??
29600 remains key for me...if the dow looses that number..then?? :

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

The Dow looks like its changed the trend to a new up trend.
It had 123 low breakout a few weeks ago, also had triangle breakout, also saw diamond breakout in lower time frames.
It’s looking like the bear market may have ended…
Bear markets normally max out at around 9 months….its been 9 months now so hoping we have seen the end…fingers crossed..
DYOR
Remo

Wait and see then.

I'm in cash, so waiting to pick up the bargains.

Nice to hear from you.

The chat is non existant.

I think it will fail imvho...
We do need the market to tell us and confirm the breakdown. I think many a trading account will get wiped out finding out.

Volatility will be mad...expect the bulls and the fed to put up a fight....but with inflation gone bonkers can the fed keep pumping these markets??
So it seems a good possibility the game is up for the yanks....and they take the other markets down with them?

Lets see..

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Trendfriend, nice to hear from you and start looking at charts again.

Do you think the 29500/29600 will hold, or we are going to re-test the covid lows?

What do you think?

bull vs beras battle ongoing pretty close to the key support at 29500/29600 imvho.
If those numbers go....my oh riley..

i think the covid lows could well be retested imvho..

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

DOW under 30k.

Looks like another fake out. S&P hasn’t managed to keep above 4000 yet again. Tested and failed !!

I am open to the idea that the market won’t crash in a straight line but we are in a bear market. This is defo not going to fly to 37000. So if there is a bounce what levels should we be watching to go back short ?

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...MM8cbbg1qKDDlgUkw%3D

don't get too bearish here just yet imvho...
watch the 30 level on that rsi...and watch the 29,500 level...

aside form from a couple of breaches of that 30 level the dow seems to bounce strongly from the 30 level on the rsi...

If 29,500 goes then it cold go quite a lot lower....just don't think it will imvho... and this should be nothing more than a 20% correction.....but lets see.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

bear minimum, great pun.

Thanks Remo. I will watch and wait.

Would be nice to load up, ready for the next swing.

That’s the bear minimum for me….38.2fib…but bear in mind this is just an index figure…
I’m shocked at how low most shares have corrected already. Nearly all the shares I follow have corrected way more than this already and some have corrected over 90%, its absolutely crazy out there…..Even thou I have been banging on about staying out of the market for ages, I have ignored my own advice and have dipped into some shares, only to have made a huge loss on those investments..lol..
This is one of the worst correction I have seen yet the indexes are not showing it fully…obviously its based on what index you follow. Nasdaq has corrected loads compared to ftse100 or even the Dow..

Are we only aiming for the 38.2% fib? I make that around 29,800.
Doesn’t seem like that far away.

I was hoping to stock up, missed the march 2020 dip; as needed the funds for a house.

It looks like the futures (and the first hour after open) made an attempt to rally and turned out to be a fakeout again. S&P tested 4000 before turning lower

Thank you for the advance warning Remo. s&P just broke 4000 and all hell has broken loose!!

Wave 3 in action I think …

It looks like its heading lower big time..
Bear market is in full swing now .
Currently corrected 23.8 fib, but likely to head towards 38.2 fib.

The DOW is very volatile. My long which i opened last week was stopped out - and yesterday's price action is like down down down. not even a breather lol - which suggests it may be a fakeout and a major rejection.
Threading carefully with this one...

As I am typing:
1. Bearish candle yesterday - went up to the high, finish on the low
2. 4 hour candle (potentially the daily) trend line broken.
3. 4 hour lower low has been triggered.

Again, not going down in a straight line. and potentially may fly up again!!

Waverider2,

Yes, I would say a false breakout, it's dropped every since.

Start of wave 3 potentially?

What appeared to be a breakout seems like a takeout. The price action yesterday was very bearish - and yes it was doing higher high, but that may stop and take out the recent lows.

Watching , but have a short with a view of adding more shorts.

Hi Trendfriend,

What happened to the drop and the bear market?

Did I miss it?

We are making HH, HL, above the 20,50,200 MA.

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...kAfQX7nhhiC4LWCraIQ=

this looks shaky currently.
sustained period below the 200 day ema line on the daily. failure to get above the 20 day ema line(brown line)
currently looks like its forming a triangle pattern.

look out for a breakdown
having said that....over the years this finds a way to recover when all looks lost!

so lets see...normally it would bounce back much quicker...watch 32,272 ultimately

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

I'll keep watching.

I thought the DOW target would be around 27500. 50% fib.

Has anybody looked at the Grand supercycle? Thats a little ominous.