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TOPIC: AML - Shorting area

AML - Shorting area 27 Mar 2013 11:05 #1

  • gclark25
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Yea saw that - i'm too late for that move but does look good.

AML doing its part aswell and still looking viable.
Considering closing some of the position soon.
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AML - Shorting area 27 Mar 2013 09:33 #2

  • Shotry
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I saw that, it didn't look very strong against it's resistance, but it was tapping away at it. Check out BAE systems, can't reember who posted thet rade, but it looks like ight be about to come good.
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AML - Shorting area 27 Mar 2013 08:26 #3

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Think you were right to sit and watch DOM Shotry - sensible decision, well done.
I don't like the strength of the latest rise after the break of weekly resistance.

Stop in place above intermediate resistance - but I believe that will probably be taken out today by the looks of it today.

Couple that with the fact I think the FTSE will make a short term rise before a downswing - so the timing of the short on DOM my end was poor.
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AML - Shorting area 25 Mar 2013 16:20 #4

  • Shotry
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Of course Clarky, was interested primarily as I'm watching Dom still and wondering what it's going to do. Appreciate your reply.
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AML - Shorting area 25 Mar 2013 16:06 #5

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Still has to break the range to confirm the lower targets, as its just testing the lower region of the range at the moment.

I was trading the range initially, but I just have the gut feeling it is going to break the range to the downside soon, following the divergence and the fact that I believe the overall price action is at an intermediate peak.

I think the 2 charts on the 4H chart especially are showing similar signs and price action.

Certainly not here to convince you to do either though, of course, was just replying in answer to your reply if you get me.

Cheers.
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AML - Shorting area 25 Mar 2013 15:51 #6

  • Shotry
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Thanks Clarky, still can't convince myself or the moment. I see the resistance and on DOM at least I can see the RSI bearish Div. I see a couple of RSI bearish div on AML, but they look as they might have played out. Still think Dom looks like a short, but can't quite pull the trigger. AML dropping nicely so looks like you've got it right.
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AML - Shorting area 25 Mar 2013 15:33 #7

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Hi Shotry.

I shorted AML at the time due to the weekly resistance point and the bearish divergence on the RSI. I trusted my view on that, but I did listen to the views of others before making a decision.

I decided at the time I would trade it short term due to it being a first touch basis.

The opportunity has arisen now, imo, for a longer term short - not a long term, but certainly longer than a scalp so to speak.

If you have access to charts - pull up the AML and the DOM group 4H charts and see if you can see a similar pattern.
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AML - Shorting area 25 Mar 2013 15:06 #8

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Hey Clarky, you say that you shorted Dom 'for the same reason', to be honest, I wasn't clear what your reasons for the AML short were? Am in 2 minds on Dom (was short in small way and got stopped at 20point loss), but still think it might be a short, just haven't convinced myself of that so I'm on the sidelines.
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AML - Shorting area 25 Mar 2013 14:37 #9

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So far traded the range but today stuck on a short-medium term short with targets of 409 & 401 based on the following charts.

Also shorted Domino for same reason.


AML_-_daily_-_25-3-13.png


AML_-_25-3-13.png
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AML - Shorting area 04 Mar 2013 12:01 #10

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Rossymc wrote:
Hi clarky

Yes you did and answered well. Thanks. I've got rid of near enough everything as it contradicts and confuses me. My major tools are the candlesticks themselves.

Ok try this if you dare. Strip your chart and just look for S/R levels. Forget the trend lines. Use a different charts package not to upset our chart set up. Let us know if you do!!!!!

Double dare you
RMc

Ha - believe it or not, price action and S/R levels is the first thing I look at - on absolutely any chart at all. I don't strip the chart, but I do plot my horizontal support and resistances before anything.

Red is current resistance, green is support (blue is usually oblique - but left them out on your say)


Amlin_-_SR_levels_-_weekly_-_4-3-13.png
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AML - Shorting area 04 Mar 2013 11:34 #11

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Hi clarky

Yes you did and answered well. Thanks. I've got rid of near enough everything as it contradicts and confuses me. My major tools are the candlesticks themselves.

Ok try this if you dare. Strip your chart and just look for S/R levels. Forget the trend lines. Use a different charts package not to upset our chart set up. Let us know if you do!!!!!

Double dare you
RMc
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AML - Shorting area 04 Mar 2013 10:50 #12

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Rossy,

I pay attention to the following indicators, but not much more:

Stochastic, RSI (for divergence mostly), 20sma on all charts (other MA's on other charts, try find best historical fit rather than universally use the same set on every chart),
Bolly bands - great tool for over or under extended price action as well as tightening bolly bands to further back up a potential break out.

I don't look for the "perfect" set up in the sense that EVERYTHING HAS TO line up, so to speak, but I do like at least 3 indicators telling the same story as what I see in the price action. I also like to look at the time-frame above and the time-frame below what I am trading off to make sure they are telling a similar story.

Rossy - did I understand your question?

or was you talking about more specifically to this chart?
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AML - Shorting area 04 Mar 2013 10:00 #13

  • Shotry
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Exactly that RMc and I need to change it as as my forward momentum is far slower than it should be. I have regularly got caught in the 'this has to turn soon' trap and I don't want to be there again.
All it takes for the triumph of evil, is the silence of 'good men'
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AML - Shorting area 04 Mar 2013 09:37 #14

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Shotry wrote:
Sounds like we're on the same wavelength here Clarky, but I'm trying to change because what we're trying to do it take the 'hard yards', we're missing the easier more relaxed stuff. At the end of the day our individual personalities will dictate what we're capapble of or even good at so I think if we get something to work for us, run with it.

Had to change myself shorty because of similar traits..... 'This is way too high or way to low'
Now i look for higher lows (uptrend) and lower highs visa versa.

Clarky, what do the stochs, rsi, MA and boll bands give you that are different? What if they contradict?

Regards RMc
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AML - Shorting area 04 Mar 2013 09:22 #15

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Sounds like we're on the same wavelength here Clarky, but I'm trying to change because what we're trying to do it take the 'hard yards', we're missing the easier more relaxed stuff. At the end of the day our individual personalities will dictate what we're capapble of or even good at so I think if we get something to work for us, run with it.
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AML - Shorting area 04 Mar 2013 09:18 #16

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Ahh - thats where it perhaps matches my personality more.

I have a tendency to not be able to stay in a trade that long. In the past I have snatched at profits. Something I am working on, and have started to show signs of improvement - but for a trade like this, I completely agree - this isn't a trend change.

The best thing about a trend change is, it will happen in stages, and each stage has the potential to trade, therefore you don't have to be in the move from the start.
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AML - Shorting area 04 Mar 2013 08:36 #17

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Absolutely not Clarkey. In fact I'm trying to overcome a bias towards the countertrend at this very time. But I have been losing money on shorts that look very similar to the AML at the moment. I was setting too little store in the MA's and too much in the indicators. As you say, trades like that are ok, but you need to recognize that it's a quick in and out affair, not a trend change. Shorted GKN for 6 points on thursday night/close Friday. Again not with the trend, but it had clearly run ahead of itself. My trade was linked to breach of it's envelope near resistance, but I was out quickly .
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AML - Shorting area 04 Mar 2013 08:32 #18

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Hi Shotry,

I hear what your saying, and see your point.

Personally, I don't mind trading against the trend if I have clear targets in mind and I am fairly confident I can be about the support or resistance level.

I have an order in for 435 on this in the case it tests the high again.

You are 100% correct in saying this is clearly in an up trend - but I am not uncomfortable trading in this situation because I constantly keep tabs on the short term charts so feel like I can keep tabs.

Looking at the 4H/1H charts i'm seeing weakness creep into at these current levels too.

But I appreciate the feedback, and there is every chance you are spot on tbh.

Are you an exclusive trade with the trend trader?
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AML - Shorting area 04 Mar 2013 07:00 #19

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This is exactly the sort of setup I've been losing a lot of money on by shorting. All the MA's from 200 to 5 are firmly up. That in itself means that this trade is a counter trend trade. In this situation I find that the indicators are most likely to lead to a pull back to a position of value for a 'long entry'. If you want to go short my advise would be very careful and have a very clear idea of your exit. If it pulls back at all, it's likely to be 418 I think before continuing up again. Check out OBV as well, rising nicely. My guess is 440 will be taken out and the SP will head up into unknow territory. Take care.
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AML - Shorting area 03 Mar 2013 21:51 #20

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AML_-_weekly_-_3-3-13.png


I always find that any major resistance and high on a weekly is worth shorting. Especially if it also meets the top of an oblique channel. RSI bearish divergence is always good too.

Targets:


AML_-_daily_-_3-3-13.png


409 (maybe 410 for round number) would certainly be 1st weight (both the 38.2% fib & previous resistance level). After that, probably the 200sma or the oblique support trendline, - whichever 1st.
Last Edit: 03 Mar 2013 21:51 by gclark25.
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