Long @ 81.25
SL is below the low of 3/3/14

Is it time?

Been wanting to get in for some time and it seems sub 80s do not stay for too long - plenty of support there at the moment.

Any thoughts?
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4385922/Lloyds.png

Hi WR - i looked at this early this week as annes goal wanted a view on chat and from a personal view - i dont see any edge in this right now to buy, unless it can break n hold 84p on a weekly basis and confirm the following weekly

Short term looks like this can pullback a bit more. 66-70p looks an interesting area...

here is the daily & weekly charts.




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Llo...28DFB%29%20Daily.png




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Llo...8DFB%29%20Weekly.png

rgds WS

Anyone care to share some analysis on LLOY? This is proving hard to read with very few signals or chart patterns.

Thanks

well spotted and analysed....

1st sign of weakness in strong uptrend
Bearish Engulfing Candle or a tweezer top today



No position

If I had a Long position I would exit here

Brilliant! I can see that quite clearly - I appreciate your help! Thank you

Anne

hi guys, - here's a quick n dirty chart....will look inot more detail when i've got some time.

Annes - -divergence is when price make a new high and the RSI does not - see illuminated area.




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/lloyds_daily_aug.JPG

rgds WS

Just a quick, and probably very dumb (the tin hat is on so don't spare the return!!) question WaveSurfer - can you tell me what -Div means please and what the signs are that you're looking at that tell you that it is a '-Div'??

Many thanks,
Anne

will do SRB - looking at the daily - there are signs of -Div. perfectly normal for a 5th - just something to be weary off.....SirRichardBunson wrote:

Hope you get 5 mins to put a chart up WS and would also like to know that if 77/81 was the top then what can we expect with any retrace, will it be a 3 or 5 wave down.

Tight Lines

SRB

intial target hit of 77p? will it get to 81p....to complete the wave structure...?

dyor

WaveSurfer wrote:

hi sirrichard
yep its 68.47..thats the closing price of yesterday.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/lloy1staug.png

Getting really close now WaveSurfer, will be interesting to see where the fibs fit once we have found the top but the Black Horse wants to keep going for sure, so top of Wave 5 target 77/81 would need some really bad news to drive it down to much. First target must be the big gap up from this morning 68.47 oh and can somebody confirm that please as advfn has 71.26 as the low but iii has 66.51 for today and I cant see that.

Tight Lines

SRB

getting close to to that target ....WaveSurfer wrote:

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/LLOYDS%20GRP..png

Looks like this is topping-out: all fib targets met; divergence on RSI; stoch/RSI on the wane.

Possible short to the area marked? Supports at 43.36 and 39.25. Then head north yet again.....

Here's an updated fib chart from the 46p rise if anyone is interested.

www.screencast.com/t/FPt2fkm8Tgdc

J many thanks for your thoughts on Lloyds much appreciated. As you have probably guessed I'm a big fan of Lloyds especially long term for (dividend reasons). I must admit that at the moment I'm battling with what the charts are telling me (short term negative) and watching the share being strongly supported and any retrace being fiercely bought. We also have a major share holder looking to off load 39% and would love higher prices above the 61.50 breakeven level to do so. I'm expecting the general markets to ease off a tad during this USA holiday week so I will keep a close eye on the sp and realise that any longs could be short lived (possible wave 5 70/80 target and major resistance), thanks again.

SRB

Hi SRB, you asked about LLOY in the chat today. My view is that it looked weak today with almost a bearish engulfing candle right at that key resistance level. There are also bearish divergences in RSI, MACD and OBV which may, or may not, play out.

I have the long sideways move as a possible wave 4 of the final 5th wave up of the sequence from 21.637p. Here's the chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...LOYdaily02_07_13.gif

I must confess to a little uncertainty here though as the original bounce up from 2009 lows up to c. 75p ought to have been primary wave 1 up but the sequence from 21.637 looks complete and is yet to achieve those levels. Remember, in the last post WaveSurfer thought it should reach 77/81p I think so I may be wrong here. I'd still be reluctant to get long based on the above chart though.

77/81p

on a w1-3 relationship = ~55x.618 = 35pips
w5 = 35+46 = 81p

rgds WS

Hi SRB,

There's no rule about the length of wave 5 as long as it doesn't make wave 3 the shortest which it can't in this case anyway.

The textbook perfect wave 5 would be roughly equal to wave 1 and for LLOY that comes in at 62.28 which it's clearly exceeded.

This just shows the folly in trying to catch a top (or bottom) in a strongly trending market. USDJPY did the same - it just blasted through resistances and EWT targets like they weren't there.

I'm just going to wait and see what happens now after getting stopped out some time ago.

Cheers.

You wrote,
....................................

If this is the case then it's likely that there'll be a move towards the 60.86 resistance or the 63.4p one, both shown, though a 5th wave can fail and come up short (the trend line might cause this here).
.......................................

Well Fridays high was 63.30 J and I for one was surprised at Lloyds strength over the 61p government sell figure. Anyway, my question is according to elliots was 63.40 the max for this final wave up and what do we have to consider if this figure is exceeded.

Tight Lines


SRB

Hi Jackozy, Did you go short on this in the end?

I read it in articles like this one referring to the CEO's bonus.

news.sky.com/story/1058568/lloyds-osborn...-taxpayer-stake-sale

But as Jackozy said it doesn't necessarily mean they will start selling at 61p. Who know what they will do. Better off just looking at the charts

Yeah, it's crazy. It's basically an invitation to sell and short just below that level. It may not make 61p so they may not get to sell.

Having said that, just because they SAY they're going to sell at 61p doesn't mean they'll actually wait for that price. Since when did a government actually do what it said it was going to do?

(Dare I say "Not since Maggie!"?)

SirRichardBunson wrote:
above the governments selling price....62

Amo wrote:
If they are selling at that level then lloy will have no chance of breaking that level.
Just out of curiosity where did you here about this??? Ive heard that a few times now As it seems by giving a price at which they will sell means that everyone will be doing the same. Surely they would keep this quite as it kills any chance of a recovery. Seems like a bad idea disclosing selling levels

Hi SRB.

Above the next resistance at 60.86p. It's a bit wide but short stops should always be above the next resistance just as long stops should be below the next support.

Just a thought: wouldn't it make sense for the market to take its profit before it hits the govt's stated selling point? If I wanted to offload a profitable long I wouldn't wait for the govt to start pushing the price down first...

J, will be interesting to see how this develops, out of interest where are you placing your stop loss for that trade.

SRB

of course, getting a little ahead of myself as usual

The government will start selling their stake at 61p so will interesting to see what impact that has if the price gets there in the near future.

Hi Amo,

Let's see if the trade even works out first!

There are loads of supports - uptrend support, the wave 4 low support at 46.08p, a few gap supports...

I'd normally look to the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibs as support areas from an EWT point of view and then I'd see if there are any price supports near those. The 46p support is, in fact close to the 38.2% Fib assuming it tops near here.

We can't look at downside targets until we've found the top and let's remember that LLOY is actually in an uptrend so this is an attempt to catch a reversal which is very dangerous.

Hi Jackozy,

You got a target in mind based on EWT?

Thanks
Amo

This now looks to me like it's in wave 5 of 5 up from the 21p low so I'm going to short it at the 57.7p gap (58.02 if you use the close rather than the low for the gap):



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/LLOYdaily09_05_13.gif

The RSI is also at the long term bear div downtrend which gives me added confidence. Note that this divergence started a long time before the top of what looks like the wave 3 top and the current RSI is higher than it was for that top. It'll be interesting to see which way it pans out from here...

Really appreciate your thoughts and for taking the time to reply in such depth.

Your a star and would love to be able to buy you a few beers one day.

Many thanks

SRB

Hi SRB, sorry for not seeing your post and getting back to you.

First, we need to seem to have only had 3 waves up from the trendline so far so we'll need to make some assumptions. Here's a chart with a possible count on to help us:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/LLOYdaily02_05_13.gif

The double trendline bounce at point 4 appears to have been waves i and ii of 5 up, the gap up to the trendline breakout failure seems to have been iii of 5 so we might have started wave v of 5 from today's gap fill.

If this is the case then it's likely that there'll be a move towards the 60.86 resistance or the 63.4p one, both shown, though a 5th wave can fail and come up short (the trendline might casue this here).

Where ever it does top out at, there looks to have been a clear 5 waves up from 21.63 so we need to look at what happened before that to see what level of retracement we could expect from the new high. Here it gets messy as there's no clear wave structure between 2009 lows and the 21.637 low. However, 21.637p was a significant low so it seems most likely (to me) that the sequence up from 21.637 is a wave 1 of some degree or other (either a wave 1 or a subwave 1). In that case we could expect a possible 50-61.8% retrace. Even if it's a wave 4 of some degree then we should get c. 38.2% retrace.

Based on that, and assuming for argument's sake a top at 60.86p to coincide with your statement re govt intentions, I'd look to the following chart for those retracements:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/LLO...yretrace02_05_13.gif

Note how both the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibs coincide exactly with natural supports if we assume that top at 60.86p. Note also, however, the weekly candle - a possible shooting star at 2 known resistances - so the top may already have formed.

Hope that helps.

Oh forgot to mention 63.00 might be a tad high Remo as the government was talking about offloading at 61p.

SRB

Jackozy/Remo

Not being an expert on Elliots can you please tell me after the 5 waves for lloyds can we expect an abc retrace and then what is the the bigger wave count please.

Many thanks

SRB

Hi jackozy..
Perfectly makes sense from an Elliott point of view
It actually fits really well so a good level to short would be 63 as that would be the same size roughly as the wave 1 move (wave 5)
Ohhh i better not get into this elliott stuff as it does my brain in

Hi remo,

I wrote that before today's gap up. I wasn't expecting it to gap over the downtrend so for me, now, it's a sideline job. I'll wait either to go long at today's gap fill, or to go short at the 57.7p one as long as there are some sell signals there.

This last move off the trendline needs a wave 4 (of 5) imho. The whole move up from 21.6p has a lovely wave structure so far and we seem to be in the 5th wave of that so the 57.7p gap looks a good target for the top of that wave. Does that makes sense?

Jackozy wrote:
Hi jackozy.
I take it your on about the current gap up for a long on the gap fill?? And not on the gap at 57.7 as this would be resistance.

This has gapped above the downtrend resistance today:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/LLOYdaily30_04_13.gif

It looks like it's going to make a new high and complete a 5th wave up.

This has played out perfectly and is now approaching the downtrend resistance from the 2010 high which is at 54.58 today:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/LLOYdaily29_04_13.gif

I'll close my long there but I'm not going to take the short as it looks to me as if there have been 4 waves up from the 21.6p low from Nov 2011. This would suggest a possibility of a 5th wave up (if this is the case - the current move could be a wave 2 up instead) which might fill the gap at 58p.

If it breaks the downtrend I'll go long to that gap.

Jackozy, I have resistance at 50.48ish trendline and then maybe a retrace to buy the dips but someone wants this higher for sure.

www.screencast.com/t/F0xsPPqH0z


Tight Lines

SRB

That low and higher low were bang on the main uptrend support:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/LLOYdaily23_04_13.gif

Only question is: will it fill the gap up from yesterday? Thoughts welcome...

1st Quarter results due on the 30th gentlemen so we might have a little bull run should we get the 123 low confirmation.

Tight Lines

SRB

waverider2, the low of 46.8 on 19/4/13 which you have labelled a LL should be a HL
a close above 49.42 will give a HH & also a 123 low breakout

lol just testing

Anyway, my short term view on BANKS are very bullish at the moment.

Lloyds in particular has seen a failed move to the downside IMHO so just waiting to see if the trendline breaks. There seems to be some bullish momentum.
Judging by the last rally - the banks were rallying first and we could just be seeing the same ??

My take on Lloyds:
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4385922/Lloyds.png

As usual, please share your thoughts...

cheers

Perfectly!



Thank you!

annes goal wrote:
hi Anne
The emotions are only available when you reply and not when you quick reply..Hope that make sense.

Thanks very much remo - it really helps to see a chart and read some explanations that make sense. (I hope that sends a smiley face - I'm not sure how to access the emoticons from the 'reply' box)

I'm keeping a close watch on where it goes and it would be great if there was a break in this (albeit temporary) downward movement.

Enjoy your evening!

Anne