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TOPIC: Ig index, Oil contracts.

Ig index, Oil contracts. 22 Apr 2020 14:10 #1

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I'm still cautious when it comes to Oil - following the trend for scalps :unsure:

p.s. just messaged you longterm_view
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 22 Apr 2020 13:59 #2

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Oil has put in a higher high on the hourly chart.

First time in ages. ;)
Last Edit: 22 Apr 2020 14:17 by longterm_view. Reason: removal of chart.
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 21 Apr 2020 12:17 #3

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So, a vote, do we feel Jun 20 bet 1635, is better than a Jul 2332 bet? :whistle:

As previously stated, a DFB at £5 per point, is around £110 per day. (So not viable)

What therefore, is the best way to play oil for the long term. It can't stay here forever.

The May 20 contract, has scarred the bejesus out of me!! :woohoo: :woohoo: :sick:

RDSB dropped to £9, on the last drop, today it sits at £12.82, but oil is lower. :silly:
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 20 Apr 2020 22:48 #4

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Ig index, Oil contracts. 20 Apr 2020 20:27 #5

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Oil Prices: A Tale of Two U.S. Crude Contracts, Both Bad
Oil Prices: A Tale of Two U.S. Crude Contracts, Both Bad
Investing.com | Apr 20, 2020 11:21AM ET

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Oil Prices: A Tale of Two U.S. Crude Contracts, Both Bad
By Barani Krishnan

Investing.com - Oil is making history for all the wrong reasons.

The expiring spot contract in U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude, May, has tanked 30%, widening its contango, or discount to nearby June to almost the price of the front-month contract itself.

In terms of milestone, May struck a February 1999, or 21-year, low at $11.45 per barrel while June slumped hit an intraday bottom at $21.66. By 11:10 AM (15:10 GMT), the difference between them was around $10 a barrel.

“This is history: the contango on the first spread of WTI (May-June) is almost as big as the flat price of the front month (May WTI),” Olivier Jakob at Zug, Switzerland-based oil risk consultancy PetroMatrix tweeted.

Brent, the London-traded global benchmark for crude, was, meanwhile trading at $26.80 on the front month June contract, down nearly 5% on the day. While June Brent was at a contango of almost $3.50 to July Brent, its differential to WTI — a big trade in oil — was at $14.

“I am worried about the dislocation of the WTI-Brent spread,” Igor Windisch of the IBW Daily Oil Brief said in a note Monday. “The worrying thing is that there is no support line for Brent.”

But the horror isn’t over for U.S. crude itself. May WTI is only expiring Tuesday and has to converge with physical oil in the market, which traders report is fetching around $2 per barrel. That leaves to anyone’s imagination what May’s final price would be. And whatever that it is, it will have an immense impact on June, which becomes the front month from Wednesday.

“The expiring May contract either has to go down to what the physical price is - $2 - or the physical price has to come up a bit - say to $5 - and May goes down further for both to converge,” said a trader who handles physical barrels in U.S. crude. “I can tell you it won’t be pretty.”

Notwithstanding where it expires, the next major lows that await May WTI are $10.35 a barrel, set in December 1998, and $9.75 a barrel, set in April 1986.

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic that’s destroying demand for oil faster than producers can cut, how much storage is left for crude and whether it’ll run out has been a matter of great debate.

According to known data, storage at the Cushing, Okla. hub for WTI deliveries reached 71% of working capacity as of April 10 — up 15% from two weeks earlier. At the rate Cushing is building, at an average of 16 million barrels weekly over the past three weeks, analysts say the hub could hit capacity by mid-May, or the first few weeks of June at the latest.

Oil storage on sea is growing too. Global crude tankers are estimated to hold a record high of 160 million barrels, double from just two weeks ago.

Rystad Energy in Oslo, Norway, has estimated previously that U.S. storage capacity by the end of April could drop to as little as 200 million barrels on paper, although in practice, available crude capacity might be closer to 150 million barrels.

“As storage fills up, countries are being forced to shut-in production on a large scale to counteract a theoretical oversupply of 21 million bpd in 2Q20,” Teodora Cowie, senior analyst at Rystad, wrote in a note Monday.

But Orbital Insight, a satellite data firm in Palo Alto, Calif., says as of April 17, its real-time tracking technology showed that oil tanks could still accommodate more than 2 billion barrels worldwide.

Orbital says it tracks almost all of the world's 27,000 floating roof tanks and automatically estimates total crude volumes on a daily basis using high-revisit optical satellite imagery and focused Synthetic Aperture Radar signals beamed up from key terminals.

Mixed messaging on the impact of the pandemic on America’s health was also having varying influence on investor behavior across markets.

Wall Street’s Dow dipped at Monday’s open after last week’s rebound which was based on optimism that the United States was progressing in its fight against the coronavirus.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said Sunday he continued to see a decline in hospitalizations and daily deaths. But Cuomo also noted the need to significantly expand testing for Covid-19 to avoid igniting a new wave of infections, and called on the federal government to help New York’s labs acquire chemical reagents needed to perform those tests before the state’s economy can be reopened.

It was a similar story in neighboring New Jersey, where the virus’ curve was showing signs of flattening in some places and ramping up in others, according to Governor Phil Murphy.

Amid these, President Donald Trump praised protests in states run by his Democrat rivals, saying the governors there “have gone too far” in practising social-distancing requirements — the same ones he approved — for the pandemic. That muddled the takeaway message for investors on how well the federal administration was working with the states in getting the country back to work.
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 20 Apr 2020 20:03 #6

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MRA4 wrote:
IMG_20200420_194241.jpg

This is one of the most bizarre things I have ever seen. The price of crude oil according to the expiring May future contract is USD -40.

Never been seen before MRA4.

That might be why it's bizarre...

Also, way ahead of ya - I even called my local council to ask if I can store barrels of oil in my back garden - they hanged up, called again and again, then they explained that it's prohibited.

So, I tried :woohoo: :evil:

(you know something, I shorted this - but held on for a few minutes and walked with £7 - moron of the year - me!)
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 20 Apr 2020 19:44 #7

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IMG_20200420_194241.jpg

This is one of the most bizarre things I have ever seen. The price of crude oil according to the expiring May future contract is USD -40.
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 20 Apr 2020 19:28 #8

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IMG_20200420_192718.jpg


If only I had storage capacity.
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 20 Apr 2020 19:04 #9

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I hope to god, nobody bought the US crude May-20.

It’s down 99%. :woohoo: :pinch: :woohoo:

What a shocker.
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 20 Apr 2020 11:43 #10

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Libero wrote:
a full tank and nowhere to go :ohmy:

I think we'll need to start looking at this soon - the world (still) runs on oil (well, a lot of the time!).

I think Oil demand will pick up - if you can pick up contracts near the lows to hold for a while - this could be a hell of a play.

I did start looking at it, thinking 25 dollar's, it was 65 dollars in Jan, 3 times your money, can't lose. :pinch:

That is the future price though, which always seems to drop towards the end of the contract. :whistle:

If you can pick up a July Contract, currently 27.87 or Aug 30.04.

I wanted to hold a DFB, but the charges are horrific as somebody pointed out.
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 20 Apr 2020 10:29 #11

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a full tank and nowhere to go :ohmy:

I think we'll need to start looking at this soon - the world (still) runs on oil (well, a lot of the time!).

I think Oil demand will pick up - if you can pick up contracts near the lows to hold for a while - this could be a hell of a play.
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 20 Apr 2020 10:25 #12

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Screenshot_20200420-102219.png


I think it's heading down to 12-10 dollar's
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 20 Apr 2020 06:39 #13

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Well, that was either lucky, or technical analysis does work, if you can read it. :whistle:

US Crude Futures May 20, dropped 20% overnight. :pinch:
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 18 Apr 2020 15:08 #14

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MRA4,

I am out now, after closing below 25, I think it’s heading for the low. :woohoo:
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 18 Apr 2020 14:14 #15

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IMG_20200418_141101.jpg


Crude oil fell to as low USD 17.72 this week down more than 70% since the start of this year and the lowest level since 2001!
Are we pointing the HISTORICAL LOW of 1998/1999 ????
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 17 Apr 2020 11:21 #16

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MRA4 wrote:
IMG_20200417_102354.jpg



Crude oil down another 7.5%, price now below USD 19.

I saw that, what a drop. :woohoo: :pinch:
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 17 Apr 2020 10:29 #17

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Crude oil down another 7.5%, price now below USD 19.
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 15 Apr 2020 13:15 #18

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Appreciate the concern, and fully understand where you are coming from.

I only play with what I can afford to lose, so do so with eyes wide open.

Hope everyone the best with their trading and most importantly stay safe.
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 15 Apr 2020 12:02 #19

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abulrahman wrote:
Thanks guys. Appreciate your response.

Not an experienced trader and have no clue how to trade futures!!.

Just on the point of charges, does anyone think that the overnight charges are a bit too high on IG? if i go 5 points long on oil and hold it for a month, thats nearly 60 quid per day charges.

no worries, we're all here to help.... BUT!

(and I don't mean the next bit as a form of advice - everyone trades on their own merit)

Please do be careful - if by your admission, you're not very experienced, then Oil (as well as other commodities & complex instruments) can be a hell of a baptism of fire.


With that out of the way, I suspect IG is like most brokers - they will try to juice you with charges, spikes, slippage, spreads etc....


It's a very risky business - and the only truth you'll hear is in the small print (from IG's own site):
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Professional clients can lose more than they deposit. All trading involves risk.
Last Edit: 15 Apr 2020 12:03 by Libero.
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 15 Apr 2020 11:19 #20

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Thanks guys. Appreciate your response.

Not an experienced trader and have no clue how to trade futures!!.

Just on the point of charges, does anyone think that the overnight charges are a bit too high on IG? if i go 5 points long on oil and hold it for a month, thats nearly 60 quid per day charges.
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 15 Apr 2020 08:26 #21

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I'm not sure on the charge.

As Libero said, futures don't have an overnight charge.

But be careful, the May 20 contract and June 20 contract, differ massively in price.
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 14 Apr 2020 20:38 #22

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abulrahman wrote:
Hi guys i am an onlooker from distance. I have tried charting but just can't get my head round it.

Just like the OP's question I am looking to go long on oil via IG. I have noticed that the daily overnight charge for spreadbetting is around £10.00 per point. Is there anyway around this?

Any input would be appreciated

i don't think a futures contract would have an overnight charge.
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 14 Apr 2020 20:03 #23

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Hi guys i am an onlooker from distance. I have tried charting but just can't get my head round it.

Just like the OP's question I am looking to go long on oil via IG. I have noticed that the daily overnight charge for spreadbetting is around £10.00 per point. Is there anyway around this?

Any input would be appreciated
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Oil. 14 Apr 2020 12:37 #24

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longterm_view wrote:
Is this a bull flag on oil?

it's a bit too wild.

Volatile market, and if this a daily, I'm inclined to sell.

(I'm not an expert obviously!)
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Oil. 14 Apr 2020 11:13 #25

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Is this a bull flag on oil?
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 09 Apr 2020 20:41 #26

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Sweet Long Term!

You should do it more often - we're all learning from each other!
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 09 Apr 2020 20:37 #27

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Libero wrote:
longterm_view wrote:
Hi,

Please could somebody help.

I wanted to buy oil, to hold as it was low, now I’m unsure. :unsure:

Instead of a daily contract, and paying each day, I bought a May-20 contract.

Does this mean I have to sell it before May? Will it rollover, like other bets do? (I can’t get through to IG on phone)

I trade stocks, but never traded oil before.

Thanks in advance.

Hi Long term,

Yes, you can (I believe) - this is direct from IG:

You can set up automatic rollover instructions by logging in to My IG, going to the ‘settings’ tab and selecting ‘rollovers’, then following the instructions. Once rollovers have been set up on your account, you will receive a confirmation email.

source: www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-be...ons-for-spread-betti

but even with this, I'd still confirm or try to.


Thanks Libero.

I’ll give them an email.

Just watched the Dow drop massively.

It couldn’t get past my letter C. ;)

Perhaps I should do it more often. :P
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 09 Apr 2020 20:23 #28

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longterm_view wrote:
Hi,

Please could somebody help.

I wanted to buy oil, to hold as it was low, now I’m unsure. :unsure:

Instead of a daily contract, and paying each day, I bought a May-20 contract.

Does this mean I have to sell it before May? Will it rollover, like other bets do? (I can’t get through to IG on phone)

I trade stocks, but never traded oil before.

Thanks in advance.

Hi Long term,

Yes, you can (I believe) - this is direct from IG:

You can set up automatic rollover instructions by logging in to My IG, going to the ‘settings’ tab and selecting ‘rollovers’, then following the instructions. Once rollovers have been set up on your account, you will receive a confirmation email.

source: www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-be...ons-for-spread-betti

but even with this, I'd still confirm or try to.
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Ig index, Oil contracts. 09 Apr 2020 19:50 #29

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Hi,

Please could somebody help.

I wanted to buy oil, to hold as it was low, now I’m unsure. :unsure:

Instead of a daily contract, and paying each day, I bought a May-20 contract.

Does this mean I have to sell it before May? Will it rollover, like other bets do? (I can’t get through to IG on phone)

I trade stocks, but never traded oil before.

Thanks in advance.
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