ftse weekly - long term
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...u9RuGTG9qUNJM8DC0yo=

i think this is heading for the long term t/line from 2009.....so around low 6,000's imvho....
will take time to get there, ftse is a bit of a slow burner....maybe a few more months...but wdik..

atb,wdik, dyor
Trendfriend

FTSE Daily.

FT, The small rally is taking shape.



I have read reports, some are saying the top was January, others are saying this is wave 4 ABC, with the final wave 5 to come, after that, they are saying the big wave down comes.

I believe we are already in the large down wave and the top has been. I have been wrong before though.

Great answers Long term and Coeliac!!

You were both absolutely right with the answers.....we had three significant technical events all on the same day!!
spooky or what??

Pretty much sums up which way we are going here for the mid term imvho.....i think this bear phase may well last until around the start of Q3 imvho....but wdik....let see...

I think we will get a small rally this week....but it should quickly fizzle out imvho.....and i think the momentum is very clearly to the downside....

ftse - daily. shows the trendline break.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...0CUtuAYOlpAX8cW2Q%3D


ftse - daily. this one shows the lower low....or 1,2,3 high....
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...xfvXDE2A7vSonpDLmyQ=

be lucky folks...
atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

Yes, on Friday the ftse printed it's first lower low since Feb 16.
Hi, all!

I'll have a crack....

On Firday , I believe there were two events.

1: the daily uptrend line was broken, been in place since Feb-17.
2: the 200 crossed the 50ema. Death cross.

Or it was very close to the moving averages crossing, can't quite see on the phone.

A little TA puzzle for you all to for Sunday Morning....

An important technical event took place on the ftse on Firday.....anyone work what it was???

Be back later if i can with the answer and chart....but lets see if any of have spotted it....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

I've got a few targets based on a few ideas and things ...

One is a channel break target, the other is a megaphone break target (yet to happen) however it failed to break to the upside target which generally means it breaks the bottom instead.. I've attached a dax chart to show as an example ...

Targets for ftse

Channel break target = 6932 happens to be the 38% fib level

Megaphone break target = 6638 around the 50% fib(depending on where it breaks out & if it breaks out)

I think we are heading below one of the trendlines which started from 2016 & now head towards fib retracement levels, Below a trend line Levels is an area of concern, would not surprise me,if we go towards 6900

Richb,
It makes sense.

TF,
I have slightly different trendline numbers,( ) I have 7128 for this week and 7143 for next.



Did you re-set your trendline? If so, that's the purple dashed line and I then get the same as you.

Keep an eye on the IG retail sentiment for clues as the retail trader loves going the wrong way and getting bruised & battered in the process ...

Currently from daily FX plus page (you need your IG account details to sign in)

plus.dailyfx.com/fxcmideas/intraday-stor...ons-Leap-Higher.html

FTSE 100: Retail trader data shows 66.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.99 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jan 31 when FTSE 100 traded near 7658.0; price has moved 6.2% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 7.0% higher than yesterday and 5.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.5% higher than yesterday and 10.4% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests FTSE 100 prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current FTSE 100 price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Nice TA guys....good work..LV and Rich....

I posted this on another forum, so i thought it may be useful here....not that i can add much here after the good work below....

good luck guys...

ftse - weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...osQblc22M%2FTYwH8%3D

This has come back to a critical level imho.....

That trendline is at 7115 this week (rising slightly weekly)
If it fails it should by all intents and purposes go substantially lower imho....i think to the 200 day ema line on the weekly at 6866...

This level may well be worth a long if your a bull....with tight stops....so decent opp from a r/r perspective....
for bears, a break of 7115 presents an opp to go short again....

issue being here presently, this kind of hanging around key t/lines is in itself not a good sign....as is the failure to break key levels....this couldn't even get above the 20 day ema line feature on the daily chart for example a couple of days ago.....that doesn't leave bulls with much amo in my view....
Bears look to be in charge, and that t/line has been softened up already....

imvho...that t/line getting busted is not only a decent possibility but highly likely....
The technical setup looks bearish here....but a trend change only takes place once that t/line gets busted.....so this is a must hold level, if we are going to get a quick bounce back....

lets see...good luck....whichever way your trading this...
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

This is more like it, charts are coming thick and fast now! nice charts ,richb

I'm glad you got to those figures, because I get close to those, I haven't got mine to hand, but I was looking at a bigger move down than we have had.

Has the DOW produced a 123 high?

I believe MRA4 had this as a ABC move, as I did, currently in wave B, meaning there was further to fall, his charts however were the DOW, I believe Remo used to say, DOW leads, so it could happen.

Any chance of a chart and comment Remo?

Also someone tell me I'm barking mad and this is unlikely to happen because of xyz

I'm still not 100% sure if it closed outside the bottom of that trendline / wedge bottom.. I'd like other peoples thoughts, but that monthly bearish wedge suggests ftse is heading back to 5578 really ???

Weekly channel break target, happens to be the 38% fib of the whole move ... Seemed a fair distance away however not anymore

Richb,

Nice charts.

Good to see other people posting again.

Yesterday was the early warning signal, using closing prices. (blue uptrend line)

Daily.



Daily close up



I would say looking across the Top 15 FTSE firms, most are showing signs of trouble, I will put some charts up soon.

Possible re-test of uptrend line.

--

This was very close, but yes, finished under the monthly.




--

Trendfriend,

Thanks for your comments.

As stated previously, I had a really good run with FTSE and AIM stocks during the initial bull run.
I then took my finger off the pulse the last few years and left a few AIM stocks to run, they have done terribly.

That's when I decided to look into the big FTSE firms, as you can tell, taking the much more cautions approach.

FTSE I see a bearish wedge which it broken the bottom of today target 7100 ish, however there is a bull flag lurking about ... it also closed outside the daily trendline as far as I can see and it closed a whisker under the monthly most recent trendline too ... cautiously bearish for now !!!

longterm_view wrote:
fair enough long term....nothing wrong with watching and learning as you say...although i think you actually know a lot more than about investing and trading than your letting on to us here...

i think you need to decide what sort of risk your happy to take on imvho.....
I get a feeling its more cautious and safety first type of investing....which is fair enough because everyone has different objectives......

Maybe the big ftse stocks are the right ones to go for??

Anyway keep looking and posting.....like you say we are all learning from each other....

good luck, atb,
trendfriend

FTSE,

It does appear to be struggling again today.

Still watching and trying to learn.

ftse - daily chart from (23 feb 2018)
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...FvvtQtPmwbqvtZw0o7E=

looks like a bear flag imvho...thsi needs to get back above the 200 day ema line, to put the bears back behind bars imvho....

lets see if it breaks down from that bear flag or not?

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

I'm not trading the indices either, just watching and trying to learn.

I seem to take two steps forwards and two back, with regards to trading and making money.

I would like to learn more from people, but nobody is here, I must admit I was gone for a while, back now though with a bang! Just not consistent.

ftse-daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...K+yt3aVD9LS702+bPt4=

not trading this atm, but it still looks under pressure....we could see it come off again....

look at the 50 and 200 day ema lines.....will we get a down crossover??

this needs to get above and hold 7300 to put the bears to bed imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor
trenfriend

longterm_view wrote:
I think this market could well have bottomed out now....the correction could be over....the dow broke above the 50 and 20 day ema lines today.....and roared away....

I opened a long, on the break above the 50 day....i think i will try to hold it for a few weeks and see how it plays out....my stop is below the 50 ema line, so below 25970 atm...

I may do the same with the ftse if can break above 7300....with a stop below 7200....lets see...

everyone has different ways of trading indices, i don't do it that much tbh....but yo must do analysis first and know your numbers to trade indices....otherwise is much to risky...and stops are a must....

I look at the daily the most....but hourly, weekly and for indices the 5 min chart as well...but i rarely trade indices anyway....but i may well hold a couple of longs on this dip for the mid term....and the divi would help cover the holding cost....lets see...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

snakes and ladders at the minute... Up and down, up and down.

TF, just out of interest, how did you manage the FTSE trade?

Can you also confirm how you manage trades generally, would you monitor the hourly chart for a daily trade and exit accordingly.

Thanks in advance.

real nasty dump on the Dow...............

The ftse is comimg upto the crucial 7075 main trendline again..
When main trendline are retested so quickly, they almost always fail.....

Are we going to see the ftse to 6950??

7300 pivot level> 7200> 7075> 6950 (must hold level imvho)

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

p.s long term, thanks buddy...and i gave some back...mines for posting some great charts recently....

TF

Spot on.

Whatever Karma is to the left, I have given you some.

Kerching!

ftse - hourly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...NaQJlkN5jx3mcuep+kk=

looks like a bear flag to me...

im looking to go short if it breaks below 7200....

stop above todays high...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

longterm_view wrote:


End of day prices are plotted based on end of day price and wont show the price moves in between ... so your chart is properly correct... my charts are plotted based on real time charts ..
nothing wrong with end of day charts,,,just not good enough for day trading.
hope that makes sense.
remo

ftse - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...dfk6rvKb+I5eaAQJ2w0=

anyway as things stand 7300, pivot level, no break no higher.....

if it gets above well worth a long imvho...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

No wonder I don't make any money, i'm working off an incorrect chart.

TF, seems you are correct.

See Prorealtime daily, it has clearly gone through.



F4T, I note you have a breakdown of the trend as well, I did send you a message? Did you get it?

Busted 3 days ago then fell to horizontal support!

daily chart is great Remo. thank you.

just wanted to check if the trendline was broken.....

held perfectly, maybe it was the place to go long!

Thanks, atb,
trendfriend

This is the chart of the daily time frame for the ftse100...

what chart time frame of ftse 100 do you need??

im sure my chart was ok, candles number and trendline??

maybe someone else can help out and confirm....

as i would like to know if advfn numbers are ok??

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

FTSE Weekly

I have the trendline broken, went straight through.

I used prorealtime end of day.

ftse weekly. trading hours only chart.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...wSa7mHdSmCS3LBai2Ng=

perfect bounce of 7075 trendline......question is will it hold?

i'm not filled with confidence tbh....

7075 main trendline..
6950. must hold key level.....

carnage below 6950 imvho....

lets see...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

I missed all the big moves on the dam indexes....dohh,,,ive ben busy shorting bitcoin and cryptocurrency lately so have taken eye of indexes..
will try and post some charts up latter if I can..

TF

I was watching the DOW last night and it just fell off a cliff.

My money didn't even clear into my pension!

Today could have been a good pound cost averaging day, or if we break 6950 over the next few days, it may have been too early.

scary stuff here.....

I was holding some long positions on stocks.....some of them long term holdings.....

i sold some of those this morning.....yes we may well rally back up....but its safety first for me.....

When the markets start behaving this way....i think its best to get and stay out....

6950 was tested overnight on the ftse futures....held...but this market is still making l/lows....no evidence of that changing yet....

6950.....below that carnage very very likley.....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

TF

7300 went quite quickly!

6950 to watch now.

TF,

I'm sure I have read somewhere, that when everybody starts bragging about shares, it's nearly over.

...

Futures bounced of 7313.

www.marketwatch.com/story/people-are-bra...ial-media-2018-01-29

Thanks TF.

I will be watching those numbers.

It's nice getting back into a few charts again.

I am starting to look at divi's rather than trend trading though, must be getting old!

Paitech wrote:
Hi Folks,
Nice to see to some posts from Longterm again!

A good post Paitech....

Whenever we see a strong move on any index, stock or commodity, it always leaves a good possibility of a strong p/b.......and that p/b usually comes when its least expected, and perhaps holders are getting somewhat complacent....

Seems to be underway atm, on the indices....
Unfortunately i'am unable to post charts, and chart links at the moment, its due to some issue with advfn...
They are having a website update it seems, so that may be causing the issue....

I can only give numbers for now.

These are the numbers i think are key for the ftse,
7424 - 200 day ema line.
7300 key pivot level.
6950 200 day ema line on the weekly chart....

i think this will hold 7300 and bounce so this was just a correction, a drop of between 5 to 10% is a normal correction.

below 7300 calls for 6950.....only below 6950 would real panic set into this market imvho....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Just looking across the sectors, I only can look at FTSE350 for some reason, I can't pinpoint FTSE100 but some are not looking good.











I was looking at IMP but the Tobacco sector looks.

I know Remo follows the DOW.

Remo, is there any chance of a quick update on the DOW or FTSE, you said "third wave primary", as Paitech noted, are we expecting a drop soon? This upsurge seems like its been going forever. ABC of recent move?


I'll be totally honest, I have looked at Elliotts wave and ....

I’m not a fan of the ftse,,,never have been...but the Dow is still moving higher...only time I would consider going on the short side is once a 123 high formation happens...and the Dow has not had one of them for a long while...the Dow has all the markings of a third wave primary ...

Remo et all,

What do you guys think of FTSE and DOW... both are too high.... I mean all time high.. .
Many people talking about correction, soft landing and crash...

Would be brilliant to get view from chartists please.

ta
G

Boom!

Huge breakout on FTSE if RSI confirms. Trendline dates back to December 1999




F4T