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TOPIC: DOW

DOW 17 Jun 2013 10:50 #851

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The level to watch on the dow for today are:
up above 15206
down below 14953


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow17thjune.png

If the dow can take out 15206 during market hours then it should head towards the 123 low breakout level at 15301. Once this is cleared then the up trend would resume and not before.
So the most important level to watch is 15300
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DOW 14 Jun 2013 07:32 #852

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S&P was the Daddy yesterday remo:

SP500daily13_06_13.gif


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...500daily13_06_13.gif

Perfect trendline play. I think we're in wave 3 of 5 of Primary 3 now. As you say, needs to break the lower highs to confirm.
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DOW 13 Jun 2013 23:25 #853

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The dow has rallied hard today. :cheer: Theres a 123 formation on the dow forming and once it breaks above 15305 then it could mean the highs being taken out again.So the main area to watch is 15305 for the breakout. ;)
Early signal will come once 15241 gets taken out.

So up above 15241
down below 14953


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow13thjune.png
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DOW 12 Jun 2013 19:49 #854

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bang bang :cheer: :evil:

may get a bounce then look for yellow highlighted areas 110-157-187 zone....more down to come imo.

short the bounces/rallies.

spx 1414 under pressure...

Wave C.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_Jun12.JPG


dow_channel_Jun12.JPG



rgds WS
Last Edit: 12 Jun 2013 19:50 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 11 Jun 2013 15:46 #855

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bottom number hit 110/80 ;)


1_dow.JPG


WaveSurfer wrote:
any move abv yesterdays high (tagged the top end of the channel and broke down) then this wave will start to look impulsive...a break down below 187>157 > *15110/80* > 15030 then almost certain wave B completed at the recent highs... should 15157/110 area hold and bounce then that will setup the right shoulder.... key level.

should the inv H&S form and play out then target is approx 15500+

assuming wave B = 15300 close to 61.8% retracement from lows.
on WAVE A = WAVE C = 14600

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_Jun11.JPG

rgds WS B)


dow_channel_Jun11.JPG
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DOW 11 Jun 2013 12:36 #856

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not always, just find the 4hour useful for swings and detecting signs of possible reversals...filter out noise seen on smaller time frames, also been trading this channel on the 4hr for quite some time now and it's served me well - morph through all timeframes generally... ;) ... in the meantime a 15110 just hit in futures - be interesting the types of candle form at this level in various time frames....... cheers WSTraderme wrote:
Wave Surfer, why do you always base your wave projections on the 4 hr charts?
Thanks.
Last Edit: 11 Jun 2013 12:37 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 11 Jun 2013 12:08 #857

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Wave Surfer, why do you always base your wave projections on the 4 hr charts?
Thanks.
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DOW 11 Jun 2013 11:01 #858

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Futures just hit the channel support:

Dowchannel.png


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowchannel.png

Bull flag?
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DOW 11 Jun 2013 10:34 #859

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.....possibly wave ((a))now complete.
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DOW 11 Jun 2013 10:21 #860

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Amo wrote:
Hi Jackozy,

Would it be more likely this is a wave B based on the 5 waves prior to this? If its a wave 1 does that mean the waves are starting again and what would that make the wave down just before this one?

Thanks
Amo

Hi Amo,

Here are your options:

Dowhourly.gif


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowhourly.gif

I mentioned 15278 in our chat the other day so I went short there but I've just closed it at 15180. Will wait and see now....

Cheers
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DOW 11 Jun 2013 09:54 #861

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any move abv yesterdays high (tagged the top end of the channel and broke down) then this wave will start to look impulsive...a break down below 187>157 > *15110/80* > 15030 then almost certain wave B completed at the recent highs... should 15157/110 area hold and bounce then that will setup the right shoulder.... key level.

should the inv H&S form and play out then target is approx 15500+

assuming wave B = 15300 close to 61.8% retracement from lows.
on WAVE A = WAVE C = 14600

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_Jun11.JPG

rgds WS B)


dow_channel_Jun11.JPG
Last Edit: 11 Jun 2013 10:06 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 11 Jun 2013 09:18 #862

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Hi Jackozy,

Would it be more likely this is a wave B based on the 5 waves prior to this? If its a wave 1 does that mean the waves are starting again and what would that make the wave down just before this one?

Thanks
Amo
Last Edit: 11 Jun 2013 09:38 by Amo.
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DOW 11 Jun 2013 07:38 #863

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And the question is....

Dow15min.gif


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dow15min.gif

Any takers?
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DOW 08 Jun 2013 11:54 #864

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Here's the updated channel chart, couple of thing going on here - dow back tested the previous high back in april, also strong move of that level and finish for the week

Also those +divergence i talked abt even remained at the lows kicked in - and the results are there to see once dow took out that 15030 level

also couple of patterns going on to keep an eye on - inv H&S maybe forming along with Bull flag.

i'm still seeing this as as B wave counter rally with another lower low to come - however the next pullback will be telling to whether indeed a bottom is in or not..... what a week, the volatility will be the norm from here on in - big moves

EOD - Dow - clear view of bullflag and april backtest of highs...

dow_eod_daily.JPG




dow_channel_Jun08.JPG


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_Jun08.JPG


WaveSurfer wrote:
that "A" label in 14800's is now tentative.... + div kicks in on Dow if it can get abve 15030... lots of work still do... this is only bounce for now....

14973/65

cheers
WaveSurfer wrote:
updated chart - ;)

+div still in place...bounce then more down imo. half way into the correction...next move will be quick Heavy thrust down...then new highs from from 14200-14500 zone.. specif targets to be assessed when near those levels

14900 key area

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_Jun04v2.JPG


dow_channel_Jun04v2.JPG


added potential moves over till end of June...


dow_6thJune.JPG


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_6th%20June.JPG
Last Edit: 08 Jun 2013 12:31 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 07 Jun 2013 17:53 #865

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loved it :)
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DOW 07 Jun 2013 15:57 #866

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hope you enjoyed surfing with me & J amo ! ;-)
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DOW 07 Jun 2013 15:26 #867

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if it finishes like this then possible correction over. ;) ;) Then the highs may be next.
look for a 123 low set up to verify.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow7thjune.png
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DOW 07 Jun 2013 13:42 #868

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Quite a whipsaw on the FTSE, which has since moved up and is now fighting with the downtrend line on the hourly - might be an interesting afternoon!
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DOW 07 Jun 2013 12:19 #869

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you got your surf board out mate?

If anybody free today come on to chat. Work is quiet for once. (famous last words).
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DOW 07 Jun 2013 12:09 #870

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for those that like to surf the waves ;)

NFP double barrel sword today... good numbers then more noise abt fed tapering, bad numbers then the noise is quelled for the time being....



DOW_1hr_wave_2013-06-07.JPG



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/DOW_1hr_wave.JPG
Last Edit: 07 Jun 2013 12:12 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 07 Jun 2013 11:39 #871

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Wave Surfer thanks for your encouraging words.Patience for trading at the right levels,actively v over trading are disciplines that I learning.
I still am so tempted to trade when I see US indices at levels yesterday and last Fri. Then I stop myself, as I don't have a clear plan.
Your charts and analysis do make understanding markets easier.
Last Edit: 07 Jun 2013 11:39 by Traderme.
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DOW 07 Jun 2013 09:30 #872

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'Moral of the story....take profits while they're there'

Amen to this!
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DOW 07 Jun 2013 00:47 #873

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Good old Dow ...made a good recovery . I was short on this index and made a nice profit. Its a shame that I could not make more :angry: :angry: I was also short on the ftse and made a profit on that one :) that also got bailed out .
Moral of the story....take profits while there there. I did.... :) ...with trading you should look to take profits regularly and don't be greedy.
That's the best way to survive trading the indexes . You also don't have to be in the market every day. When it's sunny go enjoy yourself.
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DOW 06 Jun 2013 20:54 #874

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dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow...un04v2%20upclose.JPG


dow_channel_Jun04v2upclose.JPG


close up of that chart below - nice looking candles - daily spx n dow look a peach.. :cheer:
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DOW 06 Jun 2013 19:33 #875

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Hey traderme, that statement remind me of myself...when i started trading it was really blind, got whipped then for a whole year all i did is study and watched the market movements specifically looking at price on most indices and they way they fucntion along with learning how moves unfold and at what price, once i was happy with my system i started paper trader for 6 months, only when the P was greater than the L i jumped in and the rest is history...pure discipline required esp on indices... i trade all time frames , scalp to long term trades etc... each chart provides different levels... to get to the point there is no harm in relearning in fact market dynamics forces us to continue learning.... best of luck pal. --Traderme wrote:
Tell me about it. I had considerable success trading indices in March/April. Volatility provided by Italian elections and Cyprus situation were catalysts.
I got carried away, started to trade impulsively, and paid the price.
Now, I am relearning T/A's, and doing mock trades.Intensive practice and then start trading again.
your website is helping a lot.
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DOW 06 Jun 2013 19:18 #876

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that "A" label in 14800's is now tentative.... + div kicks in on Dow if it can get abve 15030... lots of work still do... this is only bounce for now....

14973/65

cheers
WaveSurfer wrote:
updated chart - ;)

+div still in place...bounce then more down imo. half way into the correction...next move will be quick Heavy thrust down...then new highs from from 14200-14500 zone.. specif targets to be assessed when near those levels

14900 key area

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_Jun04v2.JPG


dow_channel_Jun04v2.JPG


added potential moves over till end of June...


dow_6thJune.JPG


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_6th%20June.JPG
Last Edit: 06 Jun 2013 19:21 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 06 Jun 2013 12:38 #877

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Hi Gee, hope you're well.

The 100% Fib is there because that is the 100% extension of the initial drop plotted from the lower high (ie wave a of A extended from the top of b of A). This gives possible projections for wave c of A.

My blog is at www.FTSECharts.com but all the entries are copied onto the Chartsview blog which you can access at the top. Ronnie and remo have kindly set it up so that they're all transferred automatically here.

Cheers.
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DOW 06 Jun 2013 11:58 #878

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hi
Just wondering, why have you got purple 100% fib at 15154? I am sure there is a great reason, but I cant see it!
Thanks
Gee
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DOW 06 Jun 2013 11:56 #879

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Hi Jackozy

Where is your blog???

I enjoy reading your posts.

Thanks
Gee
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DOW 06 Jun 2013 11:26 #880

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Hi J - big waves abc 3 wave move. internal structure will consist of wave of 3's and 5's, so final C will have 5.


also area's u mention looks a good spot

trade well my friend....
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DOW 06 Jun 2013 11:14 #881

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Yep, nice WS. I'm looking at 14921 (23.6% Fib of the wave 3) with a stop below the previous breakout level at 14887 for a nifty long here. It's been pointed out to me on my blog that the 161.8% extension of the initial drop is also at 14934 too so there's a few levels to look at there:

Dowdaily05_06_13a.gif


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...owdaily05_06_13a.gif

PS Shouldn't your wave C projection have 5 subwaves not 3? (Unless you're counting it as a double three?)
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DOW 06 Jun 2013 10:25 #882

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updated chart - ;)

+div still in place...bounce then more down imo. half way into the correction...next move will be quick Heavy thrust down...then new highs from from 14200-14500 zone.. specif targets to be assessed when near those levels

14900 key area

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_Jun04v2.JPG


dow_channel_Jun04v2.JPG


added potential moves over till end of June...


dow_6thJune.JPG


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_6th%20June.JPG
Last Edit: 06 Jun 2013 10:48 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 05 Jun 2013 20:37 #883

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I reckon that was the end of wave A of 4. Any views?
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DOW 05 Jun 2013 17:51 #884

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Tell me about it. I had considerable success trading indices in March/April. Volatility provided by Italian elections and Cyprus situation were catalysts.
I got carried away, started to trade impulsively, and paid the price.
Now, I am relearning T/A's, and doing mock trades.Intensive practice and then start trading again.
your website is helping a lot.
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DOW 05 Jun 2013 16:59 #885

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on the dow i always place 40 point stops.
That dow trade stop has already activated :angry: :angry:
With the dow and currency markets its best to use around 40 point stop due to the volatility.
If theres no stops attached then it can become emotional :ohmy: :ohmy: .
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DOW 05 Jun 2013 16:39 #886

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Hello Remo,
Do you always place a 40 pt stop ?
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DOW 05 Jun 2013 16:01 #887

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Im already long on this with a 40 point stop on a first attempt basis.
Its currently fighting The trend line support.
this is a day trade for me and a bit risky as its not the main trend line support. :evil:

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow5thjune.png
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Last Edit: 05 Jun 2013 16:02 by remo.
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DOW 05 Jun 2013 15:41 #888

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+div on 60min
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DOW 05 Jun 2013 09:52 #889

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I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 14534 here based on this wave count, the 38 Fib and the support from the wave 4 subwave low at 14444:

Dowdaily05_06_13.gif


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily05_06_13.gif
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DOW 05 Jun 2013 08:44 #890

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Isn't the chart below showing a H&S top? seems like it retested on the chart below and now should head down towards the target?
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DOW 04 Jun 2013 20:15 #891

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no Shorty - bounce from 15080 (dow hit 15096) to 15157 - price needs to stay capped for retest of the lows...and we just hit that 157 level and should start to reverse back down imo..

so now poss gradual ping pong 157- 114 or lower.... your trade should be free.... if goes abv this then test of 200 poss
Last Edit: 04 Jun 2013 20:16 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 04 Jun 2013 19:14 #892

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Closed half, I had moved my stop on the other half to 148 but you're thinking above 157 for a stop?
All it takes for the triumph of evil, is the silence of 'good men'
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DOW 04 Jun 2013 19:08 #893

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B)watch 114 > 15080 > 14980 approx & 15157 area for bounce. will provide update later - enjoy the rideShotry wrote:
I think that was probably a Tom Cruise quote!. I'm watching it
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DOW 04 Jun 2013 17:50 #894

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I think that was probably a Tom Cruise quote!. I'm watching it
All it takes for the triumph of evil, is the silence of 'good men'
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DOW 04 Jun 2013 17:42 #895

  • WaveSurfer
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i know, i know ....im just kidding.. :P dow needs to break down below 212 > 198 take out 178/86 for continued down or else it'll reverse then watch 257... keep banking profitShotry wrote:
You can always be 'shorter'!
Last Edit: 04 Jun 2013 17:45 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 04 Jun 2013 17:34 #896

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You can always be 'shorter'!
All it takes for the triumph of evil, is the silence of 'good men'
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DOW 04 Jun 2013 17:23 #897

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Sure does, although the main triangle lower TD developed through 23rd may to 31st may .. if your short what you worried abt - you greedy sod ! watch for a break of 15200 area ;)Shotry wrote:
screencast.com/t/g8gqNNDP3e

That make any sense to you WS?

I missed the top of the triangle (annoyed with myself), but am short.
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DOW 04 Jun 2013 16:40 #898

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screencast.com/t/g8gqNNDP3e

That make any sense to you WS?

I missed the top of the triangle (annoyed with myself), but am short.
All it takes for the triumph of evil, is the silence of 'good men'
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DOW 04 Jun 2013 14:31 #899

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just to clarify i dont think the bottom is in yet - looking for maybe a 5-3-5 formation or flat with dow tentative target of 14500 ( re-asses see nearer the time and once it take some key levels out... this rally im considering a B wave for now at least.WaveSurfer wrote:
update chart... ~15257/62 > 15320/340 to watch, you can see what happened when dow failed to hold 340 (orange line) on backtest.. this will be an area to watch - inflection point should it get there...


dow_channel_Jun04v1.JPG


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_Jun04v1.JPG

time ltd this week, hope everyone is all good !
Last Edit: 04 Jun 2013 14:37 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 04 Jun 2013 13:48 #900

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update chart... ~15257/62 > 15320/340 to watch, you can see what happened when dow failed to hold 340 (orange line) on backtest.. this will be an area to watch - inflection point should it get there...


dow_channel_Jun04v1.JPG


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_Jun04v1.JPG

time ltd this week, hope everyone is all good !
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