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TOPIC: DOW

DOW 17 Dec 2012 22:32 #701

  • Amo
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Hi Remo,

From a technical perspective why is so significant to finish about yesterdays high even if the DOW closes up and above the 23.6fib? Sorry If my question is abit naive. Just trying to understand the important of closing above previous day highs.

Thanks
Amo
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DOW 17 Dec 2012 18:16 #702

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If the dow can finish above 13190 then id expect the dow to go towards the recent high again(13329).
It looks like the 23.6fib level held which is kinda bullish to me as that signals a strong trend is still in play.
So as long as we finish above 13190 today then id stay bullish. If it finishes below this level then look to 13000 for possible bounce next


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DOW 13 Dec 2012 19:50 #703

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If this does finish below the trend line then look to enter long at 13000 as thats where the 38.2 fib level is.Its bang on that level. ;)
Obviously im long currently but just pointing out a key level to you guys


dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/dow13dec.png
DYOR
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Last Edit: 13 Dec 2012 19:51 by remo.
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DOW 13 Dec 2012 19:47 #704

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Ive gone long on this from the first touch of the trend line with a 40 point stop.
This could be a risky trade thou due to the previous candle. Im currently in profit but only just.This was a first touch basis trade.
If this does finish below the trend line then a bigger correction will follow. This may then test the 13000 level.




DYOR
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DOW 13 Dec 2012 19:33 #705

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OK this is what I am seeing on DOW

clip2net.com/s/2BnpW

Plenty of support around the 13000 with fibs, resistance and support turn to resistance.
If looked at on the hourly even more support

RMc
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DOW 12 Dec 2012 14:37 #706

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yesterday i shorted the dow at this point,13290. Made a nice profit.
Today i wont be doing that as that level is getting weaker as its been tested a day latter.
When a level gets tested a few times then it normally weakens that level. Hence why i only ever attempt it on first touch basis.
dyor
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DOW 12 Dec 2012 09:16 #707

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Hi diver,

Yes, your count is certainly possible, as is the idea that the move down from 13663 to 12471 was a full ABC correction on its own and that we're now in a new uptrend (wave 3 of 1 of...?).

I note that since my bearish FTSE post this morning, its long term RSI seems now to be trying to breakout...

I don't have any index positions open at the minute - just waiting for a clear signal either way but I'm coming round to the bullish view!
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DOW 11 Dec 2012 23:13 #708

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Hi Jackozy,

I don't think this was a five way move as there was no divergence on the RSI to denote the fifth wave.

screencast.com/t/e6FSk9Eehwa

This may seem a little extreme but I reckon the DOW is headed for a test of support at 12020
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DOW 11 Dec 2012 18:54 #709

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It bounced exactly off the old uptrend support line at 13307. It's possible that the move down from 13662 was a 5 wave move and, if it does drop below 13011 from here then the move up from 12471 will look a lot like 3 waves.

In addition, 12471 was the 38.2% Fib of the move from 10404 to 13662 so a 5 wave move down to there followed by a 3 wave move up ought to be followed by a further 5 wave move down, possibly down to the 61.8% Fib of the 10404 to 13662 move at 11663. US fiscal cliff could make this speculation a reality perhaps?

Time will tell...
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DOW 11 Dec 2012 18:36 #710

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should be a free trade now.
Also if it heads towards 13290 again then dont try and short it again.
This only works on first attempt mainly.
dyor
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DOW 11 Dec 2012 17:57 #711

  • WaveSurfer
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here's an example... dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/Dow_90_69Fibexample.JPGWaveSurfer wrote:
I tend to use 90% (assessment of lower highs)& 69% potential area to watch for out signs of reversals - all depends if these levels get taken out or not will give me further direction of the trend whether corrective or impulsive and also provides initial area's of previous breakout/breakdown / support/resistance

from the chart you can clearly see both the 90% & 69% of this current move up represent the price range when the move down started 90% and recommenced 69% to make nov 16 lows...

its just something I've noticed and use to observe pivotal area's in conjuction with the conventional fib levels. ......

regards WS
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DOW 11 Dec 2012 17:02 #712

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I tend to use 90% (assessment of lower highs)& 69% potential area to watch for out signs of reversals - all depends if these levels get taken out or not will give me further direction of the trend whether corrective or impulsive and also provides initial area's of previous breakout/breakdown / support/resistance

from the chart you can clearly see both the 90% & 69% of this current move up represent the price range when the move down started 90% and recommenced 69% to make nov 16 lows...

its just something I've noticed and use to observe pivotal area's in conjuction with the conventional fib levels. ......

regards WS
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DOW 11 Dec 2012 16:32 #713

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Whats with the 69% fib ?
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DOW 11 Dec 2012 15:37 #714

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that also happens to be 69% fib level - dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/dow11DEC.JPGremo wrote:
Im shorting the dow from 13290 on first attempt basis with a 40 point stop.
Theres 2 levels of resistance together there so will find it difficult to push through on first attempt i suspect.
The resistances are from the down trend line 13294 and horizontal resistance 13290.
This is only for today




DYOR
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DOW 11 Dec 2012 15:15 #715

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Im shorting the dow from 13290 on first attempt basis with a 40 point stop.
Theres 2 levels of resistance together there so will find it difficult to push through on first attempt i suspect.
The resistances are from the down trend line 13294 and horizontal resistance 13290.
This is only for today




DYOR
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Last Edit: 11 Dec 2012 15:18 by remo.
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DOW 11 Dec 2012 14:59 #716

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Three Rising Valley....dyor

will post chart later...
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DOW 11 Dec 2012 14:08 #717

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Don't know why but MS shows short term downtrend at 13307(today)nearly crossing with long uptrend today

Ftse80
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DOW 11 Dec 2012 13:09 #718

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Yep, I see plenty of resistance in the 13296 to 13340 area too. The hourly chart already has bearish RSI and MACD divergences but they can't be totally relied upon. Here are the 3 levels of resistance on a daily chart - they are the horizontal resistance at 13296, the short term downtrend at 13344 (today) and the previous uptrend from the 10404 low which is at 13314 (today):

Dowdaily11_12_12.gif


dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily11_12_12.gif
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DOW 11 Dec 2012 11:11 #719

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Dow has already started its christmas rally a while back now.
Its approaching some stiff resistance so will be interesting to see how it does.
The obv is rising pretty quickly so signs of volume behind the moves.
For real strength to come the dow has to finish above 13336.
Is this creating a big right shoulder i mentioned a while back?????



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DOW 07 Dec 2012 21:02 #720

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:evil:WaveSurfer wrote:
lots of resistance now... 13148 & esp 13168, until these level are taken out and close abv Dow cannot go higher, if it does 13300 here we come...unitl then markets will chop, chop chop and certainly wont go any higher. i also expect shorts to come in at these level and i rather wait than follow the mass :evil: .WaveSurfer wrote:
dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/dow_07DEC.JPGWaveSurfer wrote:
2 pips from my target in futures market, let see what happens in the real market, taken some positions off and locked in :-)
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DOW 07 Dec 2012 15:29 #721

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lots of resistance now... 13148 & esp 13168, until these level are taken out and close abv Dow cannot go higher, if it does 13300 here we come...unitl then markets will chop, chop chop and certainly wont go any higher. i also expect shorts to come in at these level and i rather wait than follow the mass :evil: .WaveSurfer wrote:
dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/dow_07DEC.JPGWaveSurfer wrote:
2 pips from my target in futures market, let see what happens in the real market, taken some positions off and locked in :-)
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DOW 07 Dec 2012 14:32 #722

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dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/dow_07DEC.JPGWaveSurfer wrote:
2 pips from my target in futures market, let see what happens in the real market, taken some positions off and locked in :-)
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DOW 07 Dec 2012 14:15 #723

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2 pips from my target in futures market, let see what happens in the real market, taken some positions off and locked in :-)
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DOW 05 Dec 2012 19:08 #724

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1421/24 spx - 13150/70 dowWaveSurfer wrote:
i still go with the current B wave rally for now , although any move north which is very possible, maybe a close above 1421/24, then id go with C being done this morning... all to play for

i wouldnt be surprised to see 13148 v.soon

great day...
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DOW 05 Dec 2012 19:07 #725

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i still go with the current B wave rally for now , although any move north which is very possible, maybe a close above 1421/24, then id go with C being done this morning... all to play for

i wouldnt be surprised to see 13148 v.soon

great day...
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DOW 05 Dec 2012 09:07 #726

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illustrative view... dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/DOW_1HR_5DEC12.JPGWaveSurfer wrote:
looks like 5 wave down from recent high to lows in a wave "a", followed by a "b" wave rally - current and final "c" wave to follow imo.

in addition 5 clear impulsive waves from 16th Nov...

will post chart
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DOW 05 Dec 2012 08:42 #727

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looks like 5 wave down from recent high to lows in a wave "a", followed by a "b" wave rally - current and final "c" wave to follow imo.

in addition 5 clear impulsive waves from 16th Nov...

will post chart
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DOW 04 Dec 2012 16:16 #728

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This is approaching the short term trend line on the hourly chart.
Im gonna go long at 12950 with a 30 point stop.



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DOW 24 Oct 2012 23:35 #729

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DOW 24 Oct 2012 22:23 #730

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Could not upload image for some reason, here is the link:
www.dropbox.com/s/7h78jv59wufrb0y/Dow%20PM%2024.10.12.gif
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DOW 24 Oct 2012 22:20 #731

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Some believe that TA is closely link to identifying waves pattern since pattern repeat itself. This is where I may need help from more experienced chartists. The hourly DOW chart below is showing repeating pattern. It is possible that my labeling is wrong as I'm trying to learn EW. It seems to me that we are now likely to see a bit of upside over the next few days. Please feel free to put me right if the chart is misleading. Thank you.
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DOW 24 Oct 2012 20:57 #732

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dow.png
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DOW 19 Oct 2012 17:52 #733

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Update, hopefully it will now bounce off if the uptrend is to continue. GL
DowJones19Octv1.gif
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DOW 19 Oct 2012 14:46 #734

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Sorry, meant to say 50 Fib, hopefully chart will apopear this time
DowJones19Oct.gif
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DOW 19 Oct 2012 14:40 #735

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Are we going to bounce off the 38.2 Fib
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