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TOPIC: DOW

DOW: Christmas Rally?? 06 Dec 2013 17:01 #951

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Hi jackozy
thats the reason i always say trade during market hours only as spread betting companies do take the CENSORED.
I did not see it move that much thou :unsure: i saw the 200 points move and that was done to steal peoples money. Day light robbery. Hence why people should stick to market hours trading.

Jackozy wrote:
"Nonfarm payroll is out today so markets might get a bit mad latter."

Yes, just a tad remo! 430 pips in 2 minutes!

Not seen one of those for a while...
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 06 Dec 2013 15:08 #952

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"Nonfarm payroll is out today so markets might get a bit mad latter."

Yes, just a tad remo! 430 pips in 2 minutes!

Not seen one of those for a while...
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 06 Dec 2013 11:40 #953

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Nonfarm payroll is out today so markets might get a bit mad latter.

Im still waiting for the Christmas rally and the signal for this should be a close above the previous days high hopefully. If we get that then the highs should be targeted again.

As long as the dow stays above 15800 then a good chance of a rally still possible. This level was back tested the other day as this was where it broke out from and also where the 23.6fib level was of the recent peak to bottom. A finish below 15800 could signal a move down towards 15600 area.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow6thdec.png


Only trade the dow if you are experienced otherwise you will lose a lot.
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 04 Dec 2013 16:52 #954

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Marubozu White on the hourly dow. could this be a sign???? The bullishness will be void once the low of the marubozu gets taken out. Normal entry is half way down with stops below.


chartsview.co.uk/learning/Marubozu-White-Pattern.html
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow4thdec1.png
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 03 Dec 2013 17:15 #955

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This bounced perfectly of 15884.. Now protect the winnings as the first attempt worked. Never good a second time..
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 03 Dec 2013 10:10 #956

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The best level to go long now is at 15884. This is the back test of the channel top .
Ive got a 40 point stop loss attached to this during market hours only. Im hoping that the christmas rally will start once it touches this level. I still think that we are going to have a rally towards christmas as this year has been one of the best years in percentage terms rise .So for that reason i still think there is a rally to come.
I may have to re-think my ways if 15884 gets broken and it drops after that level. :ohmy:
That level is going to be important in my opinion :)


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/3rddec.png
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 27 Nov 2013 08:25 #957

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Sorry, that was the chart from the day before. Here's last night's closing chart:

Dowdaily26_11_13.png


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily26_11_13.png
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 27 Nov 2013 08:15 #958

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Quick update from yesterday's Dow cash chart:

Dowdaily25_11_13_2013-11-27.png


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily25_11_13.png

I hadn't checked Monday's cash high which was 16109. The futures chart had already hit the 16125 resistance but cash caught up last night and dropped 60 pips pretty quickly off that level.

Just FYI.
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 26 Nov 2013 19:57 #959

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As soon as IG Markets and the words "all data is indicative" are put together, you know exactly where you stand :evil:

I've got 70% long on the FTSE, and 22% long on the DOW as I type...

It might as well be anything, so to this end I share Monkeyz's cynicism; but if Remo's bullish calls prove accurate (again!), then for me, it might give creditability that IG's data is more or less correct.

Why you may well ask? Well, because we know that most self-styled traders / spread-betters / gamblers lose money. It is a better to bet on a coin toss!

:evil:

Good luck all in any case!
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 26 Nov 2013 19:25 #960

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Remo - click on the Dow and see that 78% are short or whatever IG are telling you... then click on the FTSE. Currently 45% short for me.

Now scroll down on the FTSE page to see that 69% of IG clients are now long on the ftse and only 70% of IG clients are short on the DOW!

#IGrandomnumbergenerator

All the best,
M.
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 26 Nov 2013 07:45 #961

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Well, I'm not sure about IG's clients but IMHO there are some warning signs that a correction is due. I'm not saying that the top is in for now but take a look at yesterday's candle on the Dow:

Dowdaily25_11_13.png


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily25_11_13.png

It's only a single candle but it looks like a gap up, almost a shooting star, and look where that trendline comes from:

Dowweekly25_11_13.png


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...owweekly25_11_13.png

There may still be a Christmas rally but be wary about adding to longs IMHO.
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 24 Nov 2013 23:39 #962

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Some thing interesting..
I was going through IG and found that 82% of there clients who have positions on the Dow are Short...lol....poor sods...why would anyone be short ?? Obviously they don't use charts... :P ;)
And 52% of the clients who have positions on the ftse100 are long..
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 21 Nov 2013 09:22 #963

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This back tested the channel yesterday ,almost perfectly. :cheer:
Im kinda sad as had bigger position taken out due to stoploss but at the same time managed to buy new positions at a lower price thou not as many as i had initially.
We dont want the dow to finish below 15860 as that could signal a bull trap. :ohmy: :ohmy:
im hoping that it moves higher from hear...




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow21stnov.png
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 20 Nov 2013 17:03 #964

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Heres a 1 hour chart of the dow..
The sideways move dont look so bad on this time frame.Theres a flag formation on this and look at how the top of the flag is acting like a resistance. Perfect.

Hourly chart


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dowhour20thnov.png



daily chart


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow20thnov1.png

The daily has currently 3 doji ..Indecision...Its waiting for some news event to propel this further hopefully and not down move :huh:
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 20 Nov 2013 14:35 #965

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Remo,

Many thanks for your replies. :)

Perhaps I am doing it wrong. But to keep losses small (2% e.g.) I only go £1 per point) :S

But yes, profits are small, losses are small.

This is why I stopped trading for a long while, its so time consuming and when you add up all the profits, and take off losses (although small), you begin to wonder. :woohoo:

I have been looking again recently to trade more (after training cocker spaniel :cheer:

Perhaps emotions are more severe when trading smaller amounts? Always chasing the profit??
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 20 Nov 2013 14:18 #966

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if your itching to get back in then emotions have taken control...Not a good thing..
The dow is unforgiving so careful...
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 20 Nov 2013 14:17 #967

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longterm_view wrote:
This is where I get stuck with trading. (i know about the 3 contract rule, but i only do a £1 per point) (£3 per point is to much of a loss)

Traders advice please.

I entered at the breakout, sold at 16000 for profit.

Do I re-enter now? or wait for re-test? Am itching to get back in? Dont want to miss 600 odd points.

I could enter above 16030 for another breakout.

Help please.


hi LTV
when betting small positions like £1 a point you are at a disadvantage. You cant take any profits or be really greedy. The 3 contract rule is there to take out the emotion :sick: ..
with regards to the best level to go long now.......Thasts going to be a re-test of 15855...Thats the best level to go long.
You can try and re-enter on a breakout trade at 16030 but thats not the best level. Its a good level for a top up when your betting with the trend. The risk are more obviously as your entering at the resistance but if it does break then there is a good chance that it may fly.

good luck
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 20 Nov 2013 13:51 #968

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This is where I get stuck with trading. (i know about the 3 contract rule, but i only do a £1 per point) (£3 per point is to much of a loss)

Traders advice please.

I entered at the breakout, sold at 16000 for profit.

Do I re-enter now? or wait for re-test? Am itching to get back in? Dont want to miss 600 odd points.

I could enter above 16030 for another breakout.

Help please.
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 20 Nov 2013 11:57 #969

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Worth a long from 15855 with
a 40 point stop during market
hours only. This is for today only.
trend line and breakout point support together


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow20thnov.png
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 19 Nov 2013 16:36 #970

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I hope you are right of course Remo, but I'm in two minds...

I don't remember where I saw S&P chart recently, but it did make me wonder... So I had a look at the DJI, and admittedly although isn't the most polished of charts, it did show a rising wedge, so we might have a few more points, but perhaps a re-trace (if not a big correction) is due.

Who knows anyway!



O/T Personally, I'm peeved at not taking a look at Hong Kong and China, even UBS were calling it... Could have been a nice earner... Oh well! :-)
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 19 Nov 2013 13:24 #971

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I hope not... :angry: :angry: I want this to motor on as i dont want any corrections as ive taken a few long term positions(till the christmas rally is over). It will mean closing a few of them if it starts to head back down to the test zone. For once i just want this to motor on. :cheer: :cheer:
lol

longterm_view wrote:
After hitting 16000 and reversing. (Profit taken)

I presume the next trade is waiting for the re-test of the channel at 15860? :whistle:
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 19 Nov 2013 11:14 #972

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After hitting 16000 and reversing. (Profit taken)

I presume the next trade is waiting for the re-test of the channel at 15860? :whistle:
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 17 Nov 2013 12:51 #973

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As can be seen from the chart this broke out nicely :) :) :)



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow17thnov.png
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DOW: Christmas Rally?? 15 Nov 2013 18:48 #974

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I thought this may be interesting for some. :cheer:

2009
The Christmas rally started on 2nd November and by 31st December the peak achieved was 902 points

2010
The Christmas rally started on 29th November and by 31st December the peak achieved was 696 points

2011
The Christmas rally started on 28th November and by 31st December the peak achieved was 1096 points

2012
The Christmas rally started on 16th November and by 31st December the peak achieved was 894 points

2013
??????? As there was no low formed yet and based on the previous low ,the low may have been 9th October so the Christmas rally may have started well early.

Bottom line is
since we have clearly broken the channel there is good reason to think the dow can put another thousand points on this rally by Christmas :cheer: :cheer:


Fingers crossed ;) ;)
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Last Edit: 15 Nov 2013 19:10 by remo.
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DOW 14 Nov 2013 13:18 #975

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Hi longterm_view
thats the problem with 24 hour charts ,you cant really use them to trade accurately. I will never trade of a trend line based on IG Charts.






longterm_view wrote:
I don't know if it's just my charts, but they never look like yours Remo. :huh:

I use IG charts and because they use 24 hourm it seems to ruin trend lines etc. (I have asked if you can only have market hours but IG have yet to comment)

If you see my chart for hourly, I put a line on 22/10 & 7/11 highs, i then copied the line for lower and put on 15/10.

In your chart neither line has been breached, but in my chart, both trend line have been breached. More than once :woohoo: :woohoo:

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/21384991/Scr...%20at%2012.32.30.png
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DOW 14 Nov 2013 12:44 #976

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I don't know if it's just my charts, but they never look like yours Remo. :huh:

I use IG charts and because they use 24 hourm it seems to ruin trend lines etc. (I have asked if you can only have market hours but IG have yet to comment)

If you see my chart for hourly, I put a line on 22/10 & 7/11 highs, i then copied the line for lower and put on 15/10.

In your chart neither line has been breached, but in my chart, both trend line have been breached. More than once :woohoo: :woohoo:

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/21384991/Scr...%20at%2012.32.30.png
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DOW 14 Nov 2013 08:02 #977

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could this be the start of the Santa rally???? :cheer: :cheer:
I hope so... ;)
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DOW 14 Nov 2013 07:37 #978

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Dow looks like its going to breakout today from the top of the channel. Due to the close proxemity to the top of the channel it's likely to breakout so shorts on first attempts should not be executed.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow14thnov2013.png

The top of the channel is at 15852 . So a breakout above this could signal a move to 16850 as the channel is 1000 points long.
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Last Edit: 14 Nov 2013 07:58 by remo.
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DOW 13 Nov 2013 14:56 #979

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im looking to go long on the first attempt of the bottom channel on the hourly chart. Im using a 30 point stop.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow13thhourlynov.png
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DOW 10 Nov 2013 21:05 #980

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i think its time to revisit this post from back in Mar 13 (when Dow was breaking out of its all time highs from 2007) and provide an update on the chart. B)

The breakout was indeed powerful, where to next and what will happen thereafter, maybe the devil is in the detail and scattered in the past to forecast the future.... :evil: just something to think about, we could be in going into blue sky territory and upper targets are becoming much harder, i would not discount the bull extending either..there is wave count to support it, we'll just have to see if another breakout and confirmation of it takes place or not.

Dow_Breakouts.JPG


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_Breakouts.JPG

The market floods you with many tools and indicators but more often than not simplicity is the best policy. :cheer:

all imho, dyor etc...

rgds,

WS (a Bull until the market say's it's not) :)

WaveSurfer wrote:
Here's a quick analysis of the Dow when it has taken out it's previous (all time) highs over the years...

on the chart you will see: est breakout targets based on previous range vs actual top price and the respective difference, hopefully the chart is self explanatory....

apart from what i have put on the chart, there are some other observations to be made with respect to the length of time it has taken the dow to get to it's previous highs and once it has, the results thereafter as an example....

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/dow_historical%20breakouts.JPG

just something to ponder ;) :evil: :whistle:
Last Edit: 10 Nov 2013 21:09 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 07 Nov 2013 14:37 #981

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The top of the channel is at 15839.
worth a short during market hours on a first attempt basis with a 25 point stop.
im using tight stops as if its a real breakout then the dow could head upwards fast.
Ill be looking to go long on the back test of a breakout if it happens.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow7thnov.png
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DOW 07 Nov 2013 13:21 #982

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It doesn't appear so just yet, but is approaching.
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DOW 07 Nov 2013 12:59 #983

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Hello,

Has the Dow broken out of its channel?

On phone, so struggling to see. :blink:

It's at an all time high, although its not in market hours. :silly:
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DOW 19 Oct 2013 08:37 #984

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Updated Chart for Dow - Mega bull ?

Dow has not even got going yet and is lagging behind spx/naz, when it does it will do with a vengance....

~210, 252 & 280 for pullbacks area's to watch short term - as per the chart and Remo's post below, real strength will come on a break n hold of the upper range.

those that frequent that live chat room - i've put 2 counts in the chart, both bullish that i've been talking abt - commentary in chart.....

Dow_Weekly_Oct13v2.JPG


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_Weekly_Oct13v2.JPG

all imho, dyor etc etc etc
regards WS
Last Edit: 19 Oct 2013 08:52 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 15 Oct 2013 17:45 #985

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Check the beautiful channel in play :cheer: :cheer: Its 1100 points long so when this decides to breakout then there is 1100 points profit for take ;) ;) This channel has been in play for 7 months so when this does break its going to be fast and furious ;) ;)
Generally these channels should break in the direction of the trend.Its like a continuation.
You can trade this ether way thou but im favoring an up break :cheer: :cheer: .



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow15thoct.png

Only trade the dow if you know what you are doing as this index is not for the beginner. :dry:
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DOW 13 Oct 2013 23:06 #986

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Futures are getting hammered right now...

Predictable - due to the "No Deal" news over the weekend...

(someone's been left holding the back after some heavy buying on Thurs / Fri).

Interesting times...
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DOW 12 Oct 2013 11:03 #987

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Strong momentum & breadth displayed over the last 2 days....

an alternative to the B & P4 scenario and probability increasing - jacko. all will be revealed soon imo

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_Weekly_Oct13v1.JPG

Dow_Weekly_Oct13v1.JPG



rgds WS
Last Edit: 12 Oct 2013 11:07 by WaveSurfer.
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DOW 10 Oct 2013 07:43 #988

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That's also a doji on the daily cash chart to support the bull hammer on the futures one (hammer with close higher than open).

So, is this a "B" wave or something else? ;-)
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DOW 10 Oct 2013 07:08 #989

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And there appears to be a bullish divergence on the daily RSI too.....:)
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DOW 09 Oct 2013 17:03 #990

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Look at how the dow bounced of the 200ema perfectly today :cheer: :cheer: B) .
Thats respect for you ;)


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow9thoct.png
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DOW 01 Oct 2013 08:01 #991

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I've also been waiting for that trendline (the spx equivalent actually) but there's also a possibility of a hammer yesterday (not a perfect one) at the 61.8% Fib and historic support/resistance at 15073:

Dowdaily01_10_13.png


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily01_10_13.png

Just a possibility...
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DOW 30 Sep 2013 20:52 #992

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Worth a long at the short term up trend line on a first attempt basis.(14989) with a 40 point stop during market hours only.This could be a good level for a bounce tomorrow??



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow30thsept.png
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DOW 18 Sep 2013 07:50 #993

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rumors of the END of QE might help that short too :)


ooops...forgot link:

www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/17/us-us...dUSBRE98G18K20130917
Last Edit: 18 Sep 2013 07:51 by AdeMcG.
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DOW 17 Sep 2013 16:09 #994

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Im gonna be shorting the dow at 15658 with a 40 points stop for today only.
This trade will be placed until 8.30pm UK time. This is a first attempt trade only. ;) ;)


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow17thsept.png
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Last Edit: 17 Sep 2013 16:10 by remo.
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DOW 16 Sep 2013 00:13 #995

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Hold the press, here's why:

Dear Mr. President,



I am writing to withdraw my name for consideration to be Chairman of the Federal Reserve.



It has been a privilege to work with you since the beginning of your Administration as you led the nation through a severe recession into a sustained economic recovery built on policies to promote employment and strengthen the middle class.



This is a complex moment in our national life. I have reluctantly concluded that any possible confirmation process for me would be acrimonious and would not serve the interests of the Federal Reserve, the Administration, or ultimately, the interests of the nation’s ongoing economic recovery.



I look forward to continuing to support your efforts to strengthen our national economy by creating a broad based prosperity and to reform our financial system so that no President ever again faces what you and your economic team faced upon taking office in 2009.



Sincerely yours,



Lawrence Summers

Jeez! I guess the markets can't stand him (with good reason one supposes!)
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DOW 16 Sep 2013 00:12 #996

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remo wrote:
It looks like all the indexes are gonna open up massively tomorrow.
Hopefully a nice bullish week ahead :cheer: :cheer:

Came back a few mins ago, logged on, and thought my eyes were deceiving me!

Dow futures up 185 as I type, and the FTSE isn't bad either with its futures up around 77 points.

:woohoo:

Any idea why?

I'm guessing weak USD is driving a mini-rotation. Happy to be corrected.
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DOW 15 Sep 2013 23:29 #997

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It looks like all the indexes are gonna open up massively tomorrow.
Hopefully a nice bullish week ahead :cheer: :cheer:
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DOW 12 Sep 2013 08:07 #998

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Jackozy wrote:
I still think there's every chance the trade could work - 15340 is a key level, 315 is the 61 Fib and the trendline

PS My little one's managed to get ill again on his return to nursery after only 2 days so I'm back on full time childcare duties for the next week or two at least so I'll have to remain on the back seat for now. Thanks for all your hard work.


I hope he gets better soon. :huh: our son never got ill. Until he went to nursery .Then it was one illness after the other. Nursery are full of germs ..it took him a while to build his immune system up . I know how you feel. We went through a lot of calpol. It will get better mate . ;)
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DOW 12 Sep 2013 07:49 #999

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I still think there's every chance the trade could work - 15340 is a key level, 315 is the 61 Fib and the trendline backtest:

h3af7e81.png


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily11_09_13.png

What I meant by overbought is that the daily stoch is at 97.3 which is as high as it's been since 2009 (I know it can stay up there) and, more importantly, while the RSI is not that high, it is at the downtrend resistance from the initial bearish divergence.

We'll see. It's a very strong market so it is risky to short it.

Cheers.

PS My little one's managed to get ill again on his return to nursery after only 2 days so I'm back on full time childcare duties for the next week or two at least so I'll have to remain on the back seat for now. Thanks for all your hard work.
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DOW 11 Sep 2013 22:58 #1000

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Jackozy wrote:
I'm assuming you cancelled that trade remo, given that it got there so close to end of day?

Dow is massively overbought but they still keep buying it. Crazy market!!

Yep ...I dont place any trades on the dow in the last 30 mins of trading. On top of that the dow hit 15305 and then went down then went back up to 15305 and went down so that already means the level was getting weaker.So my order was only open till 8.30uk time so was lucky in that respect. 5 point out on the dow is like the level being hit .Back on the side lines waiting for that perfect trade again on the dow. :angry:

I wont say the dows over bought just yet as the dow has been in a sideways market since may and if you look at the rsi its still not that high yet.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow11thsept1.png

Is that 3 white solders??? :ohmy: :ohmy:
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Last Edit: 11 Sep 2013 23:05 by remo.
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