PS The 3 waves down to 703 could also just be wave A of int ii (assuming it was a low). I'd normally expect a wave 2 to go deeper than this has so far.

I'd love it to drop to that trendline by Dec 27th as it coincides with the 61 fib at 15275 on that date and would be a great place to buy for a Happy New Year )

Ha ha! Thanks remo - don't blame you for not wanting to field questions on waves!

We've been looking at some wave options in the chatroom and wave int ii of major 5 of primary 3 seems to be the most likey.

A close above 15790 might also be enough as that should rule out the possibility of a 5 wave down move (since it would overlap the possible wave 1 down).

All fun and games!

The dow being a pain as usual. It just does not want to give us a nice christmas present . This index can be a pain.
A good entry to go long was at 15710 yesterday on a first attempt basis. That entry has now gone.
This correction is not unusual as most correction form in a ABC pattern. Thats one of the reason that a 123 high can be risky to trade. The dow has basically gone back into the channel that it temporary broke out from.The time to be concerned is if the dow goes below 15670 then that could mean a fall back down to 15522 where if it breaks will open up the test of the trend line at 15160ish.
As for the christmas rally.
Its still possible as we still have at least 7 trading days remaining and that could easily mean a massive points change. Look for an early indication by the dow finishing above the previous days high.
The previous days high for today is at 15846. A finish above this could signal a end to the correction as currently the correction has an ABC format.
As for wave counts
were still in wave 3 of the dow so we are expecting wave 4 some time next year and this correction should last about 6 months.
ive got this at wave 5 of major 3....and wave 2 of 5 currently so 3 minor waves remaining...to the big correction. So markets may have until may or june next year to go up till then a big correction.

Please dont ask me about waves as trying to put them to paper does my head in. I dont know the way people label them and that seems to throw a lot of people. This is how i do it and its down to you how you want to read this.
i have this as wave 2 of 5 of 3.
Any way i could be wrong on all this so take with a pinch of salt.
I dont normally tell people about waves but since its cristmas i thought id share my wave count
have fun translating this. and im not available for any questions


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dowwaves2013.png



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow13thdec13.png

15800 held. Still no sell?

Looks like Santa came early this year but got upset and took his toys home with him.

Hi Diver,

I think that was just a comment from WS regarding Friday night's Dow action referring to sell signals from the 5 min chart (ie there weren't any). I think he was saying that Dow could finish close to the 16070 level that the futures peaked at in out of hours trading following the non farm payroll figures from the US.

It didn't quite manage those levels but closed with a very bullish candle as remo's pointed out.

Hope that helps.

WaveSurfer wrote:
uh!.... translation please

Get ready for the Christmas rally.
The Dow almost finished with a maribuzo white on Friday (out by 2 points) . Could this be a secret signal to professional traders...lol..
The strong finish we had on Friday should signal a rally to the tops and beyond I think. I'm still hoping for a 1000 point move over 2 weeks. This. Should hopefully pay for some Christmas presents ...
Fingers crossed...

booom booom -

this aint nothing lol, still no sell can you believe it.....dont be shock to see highs of the nfp pumpo or close to it.

Yeah, fair enough remo, though I don't think this was just the SB companies - the futures market really did move up 200 pips and down 230p pips in about 2 mins. Too fast to take advantage for us poor PIs lol!

I saw my Saxo trade P/L move like billyo and couldn't press buttons fast enough!

Hi jackozy
thats the reason i always say trade during market hours only as spread betting companies do take the CENSORED.
I did not see it move that much thou i saw the 200 points move and that was done to steal peoples money. Day light robbery. Hence why people should stick to market hours trading.

Jackozy wrote:

"Nonfarm payroll is out today so markets might get a bit mad latter."

Yes, just a tad remo! 430 pips in 2 minutes!

Not seen one of those for a while...

Nonfarm payroll is out today so markets might get a bit mad latter.

Im still waiting for the Christmas rally and the signal for this should be a close above the previous days high hopefully. If we get that then the highs should be targeted again.

As long as the dow stays above 15800 then a good chance of a rally still possible. This level was back tested the other day as this was where it broke out from and also where the 23.6fib level was of the recent peak to bottom. A finish below 15800 could signal a move down towards 15600 area.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow6thdec.png


Only trade the dow if you are experienced otherwise you will lose a lot.

Marubozu White on the hourly dow. could this be a sign???? The bullishness will be void once the low of the marubozu gets taken out. Normal entry is half way down with stops below.


chartsview.co.uk/learning/Marubozu-White-Pattern.html
dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow4thdec1.png

This bounced perfectly of 15884.. Now protect the winnings as the first attempt worked. Never good a second time..

The best level to go long now is at 15884. This is the back test of the channel top .
Ive got a 40 point stop loss attached to this during market hours only. Im hoping that the christmas rally will start once it touches this level. I still think that we are going to have a rally towards christmas as this year has been one of the best years in percentage terms rise .So for that reason i still think there is a rally to come.
I may have to re-think my ways if 15884 gets broken and it drops after that level.
That level is going to be important in my opinion


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/3rddec.png

Sorry, that was the chart from the day before. Here's last night's closing chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily26_11_13.png

Quick update from yesterday's Dow cash chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily25_11_13.png

I hadn't checked Monday's cash high which was 16109. The futures chart had already hit the 16125 resistance but cash caught up last night and dropped 60 pips pretty quickly off that level.

Just FYI.

As soon as IG Markets and the words "all data is indicative" are put together, you know exactly where you stand

I've got 70% long on the FTSE, and 22% long on the DOW as I type...

It might as well be anything, so to this end I share Monkeyz's cynicism; but if Remo's bullish calls prove accurate (again!), then for me, it might give creditability that IG's data is more or less correct.

Why you may well ask? Well, because we know that most self-styled traders / spread-betters / gamblers lose money. It is a better to bet on a coin toss!



Good luck all in any case!

Remo - click on the Dow and see that 78% are short or whatever IG are telling you... then click on the FTSE. Currently 45% short for me.

Now scroll down on the FTSE page to see that 69% of IG clients are now long on the ftse and only 70% of IG clients are short on the DOW!

#IGrandomnumbergenerator

All the best,
M.

Well, I'm not sure about IG's clients but IMHO there are some warning signs that a correction is due. I'm not saying that the top is in for now but take a look at yesterday's candle on the Dow:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Dowdaily25_11_13.png

It's only a single candle but it looks like a gap up, almost a shooting star, and look where that trendline comes from:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...owweekly25_11_13.png

There may still be a Christmas rally but be wary about adding to longs IMHO.

Some thing interesting..
I was going through IG and found that 82% of there clients who have positions on the Dow are Short...lol....poor sods...why would anyone be short ?? Obviously they don't use charts...
And 52% of the clients who have positions on the ftse100 are long..

This back tested the channel yesterday ,almost perfectly.
Im kinda sad as had bigger position taken out due to stoploss but at the same time managed to buy new positions at a lower price thou not as many as i had initially.
We dont want the dow to finish below 15860 as that could signal a bull trap.
im hoping that it moves higher from hear...




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow21stnov.png

Heres a 1 hour chart of the dow..
The sideways move dont look so bad on this time frame.Theres a flag formation on this and look at how the top of the flag is acting like a resistance. Perfect.

Hourly chart


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dowhour20thnov.png



daily chart


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow20thnov1.png

The daily has currently 3 doji ..Indecision...Its waiting for some news event to propel this further hopefully and not down move

Remo,

Many thanks for your replies.

Perhaps I am doing it wrong. But to keep losses small (2% e.g.) I only go £1 per point)

But yes, profits are small, losses are small.

This is why I stopped trading for a long while, its so time consuming and when you add up all the profits, and take off losses (although small), you begin to wonder.

I have been looking again recently to trade more (after training cocker spaniel

Perhaps emotions are more severe when trading smaller amounts? Always chasing the profit??

if your itching to get back in then emotions have taken control...Not a good thing..
The dow is unforgiving so careful...

longterm_view wrote:

hi LTV
when betting small positions like £1 a point you are at a disadvantage. You cant take any profits or be really greedy. The 3 contract rule is there to take out the emotion ..
with regards to the best level to go long now.......Thasts going to be a re-test of 15855...Thats the best level to go long.
You can try and re-enter on a breakout trade at 16030 but thats not the best level. Its a good level for a top up when your betting with the trend. The risk are more obviously as your entering at the resistance but if it does break then there is a good chance that it may fly.

good luck

This is where I get stuck with trading. (i know about the 3 contract rule, but i only do a £1 per point) (£3 per point is to much of a loss)

Traders advice please.

I entered at the breakout, sold at 16000 for profit.

Do I re-enter now? or wait for re-test? Am itching to get back in? Dont want to miss 600 odd points.

I could enter above 16030 for another breakout.

Help please.

Worth a long from 15855 with
a 40 point stop during market
hours only. This is for today only.
trend line and breakout point support together


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow20thnov.png

I hope you are right of course Remo, but I'm in two minds...

I don't remember where I saw S&P chart recently, but it did make me wonder... So I had a look at the DJI, and admittedly although isn't the most polished of charts, it did show a rising wedge, so we might have a few more points, but perhaps a re-trace (if not a big correction) is due.

Who knows anyway!



O/T Personally, I'm peeved at not taking a look at Hong Kong and China, even UBS were calling it... Could have been a nice earner... Oh well!

I hope not... I want this to motor on as i dont want any corrections as ive taken a few long term positions(till the christmas rally is over). It will mean closing a few of them if it starts to head back down to the test zone. For once i just want this to motor on.
lol

longterm_view wrote:

After hitting 16000 and reversing. (Profit taken)

I presume the next trade is waiting for the re-test of the channel at 15860?

As can be seen from the chart this broke out nicely



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow17thnov.png

I thought this may be interesting for some.

2009
The Christmas rally started on 2nd November and by 31st December the peak achieved was 902 points

2010
The Christmas rally started on 29th November and by 31st December the peak achieved was 696 points

2011
The Christmas rally started on 28th November and by 31st December the peak achieved was 1096 points

2012
The Christmas rally started on 16th November and by 31st December the peak achieved was 894 points

2013
??????? As there was no low formed yet and based on the previous low ,the low may have been 9th October so the Christmas rally may have started well early.

Bottom line is
since we have clearly broken the channel there is good reason to think the dow can put another thousand points on this rally by Christmas


Fingers crossed

Hi longterm_view
thats the problem with 24 hour charts ,you cant really use them to trade accurately. I will never trade of a trend line based on IG Charts.






longterm_view wrote:

I don't know if it's just my charts, but they never look like yours Remo.

I use IG charts and because they use 24 hourm it seems to ruin trend lines etc. (I have asked if you can only have market hours but IG have yet to comment)

If you see my chart for hourly, I put a line on 22/10 & 7/11 highs, i then copied the line for lower and put on 15/10.

In your chart neither line has been breached, but in my chart, both trend line have been breached. More than once

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/21384991/Scr...%20at%2012.32.30.png

could this be the start of the Santa rally????
I hope so...

Dow looks like its going to breakout today from the top of the channel. Due to the close proxemity to the top of the channel it's likely to breakout so shorts on first attempts should not be executed.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow14thnov2013.png

The top of the channel is at 15852 . So a breakout above this could signal a move to 16850 as the channel is 1000 points long.

im looking to go long on the first attempt of the bottom channel on the hourly chart. Im using a 30 point stop.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow13thhourlynov.png

i think its time to revisit this post from back in Mar 13 (when Dow was breaking out of its all time highs from 2007) and provide an update on the chart.

The breakout was indeed powerful, where to next and what will happen thereafter, maybe the devil is in the detail and scattered in the past to forecast the future.... just something to think about, we could be in going into blue sky territory and upper targets are becoming much harder, i would not discount the bull extending either..there is wave count to support it, we'll just have to see if another breakout and confirmation of it takes place or not.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_Breakouts.JPG

The market floods you with many tools and indicators but more often than not simplicity is the best policy.

all imho, dyor etc...

rgds,

WS (a Bull until the market say's it's not)

WaveSurfer wrote:

The top of the channel is at 15839.
worth a short during market hours on a first attempt basis with a 25 point stop.
im using tight stops as if its a real breakout then the dow could head upwards fast.
Ill be looking to go long on the back test of a breakout if it happens.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow7thnov.png

It doesn't appear so just yet, but is approaching.

Hello,

Has the Dow broken out of its channel?

On phone, so struggling to see.

It's at an all time high, although its not in market hours.

Updated Chart for Dow - Mega bull ?

Dow has not even got going yet and is lagging behind spx/naz, when it does it will do with a vengance....

~210, 252 & 280 for pullbacks area's to watch short term - as per the chart and Remo's post below, real strength will come on a break n hold of the upper range.

those that frequent that live chat room - i've put 2 counts in the chart, both bullish that i've been talking abt - commentary in chart.....



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_Weekly_Oct13v2.JPG

all imho, dyor etc etc etc
regards WS

Check the beautiful channel in play Its 1100 points long so when this decides to breakout then there is 1100 points profit for take This channel has been in play for 7 months so when this does break its going to be fast and furious
Generally these channels should break in the direction of the trend.Its like a continuation.
You can trade this ether way thou but im favoring an up break .



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow15thoct.png

Only trade the dow if you know what you are doing as this index is not for the beginner.

Futures are getting hammered right now...

Predictable - due to the "No Deal" news over the weekend...

(someone's been left holding the back after some heavy buying on Thurs / Fri).

Interesting times...

Strong momentum & breadth displayed over the last 2 days....

an alternative to the B & P4 scenario and probability increasing - jacko. all will be revealed soon imo

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_Weekly_Oct13v1.JPG




rgds WS

That's also a doji on the daily cash chart to support the bull hammer on the futures one (hammer with close higher than open).

So, is this a "B" wave or something else?

And there appears to be a bullish divergence on the daily RSI too.....

Look at how the dow bounced of the 200ema perfectly today .
Thats respect for you


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow9thoct.png