Got bored waiting, answering myself, that's sad.

He's a simple chart to show the extent of this move.

Perhaps I have Elliotts all wrong, but it looks good to me.

Looking at the chart below and reading a very limited amount on Elliotts wave before my head exploded

I can't see an ABC move from the 2009 low, I can see minor corrections, which would imply the ABC moves in the lower frames, but I would have thought there would be an BIG ABC move??



Any ideas?

kerching....

that went well....

i'm looking to short if we get below 25096....stop above today's high....
dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...NIjlEnznky0s5IWK8%3D

50 day ema line is the key here imvho....and i think this down move is not quite over yet....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

dow daily. (trading hours only)
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...VXp9uth6mM6y0ikuI%3D

I would only be comfortable with the long side here on a break above 24947....close above 25100 confirms the upside view
stop below 23780.

so basically looking for a higher high, as the bar has been set for us yesterday.....important not to jump the gun here imho..... unless you likle to gamble! lol....

drop below 23800 calls for 23000 > 22000> 19500 (area)

be lucky folks,
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Thank you.

A 15% correction from the high, would be around 22600, 2 forms of support.

That'll keep us all watching those figures.

The short term trendline is at 23600 ,this is the level to watch as a break of this and the index could head down towards the 200sma which currently stands at 22721 and would also open up a test of the main trendline which is at 21900 area. I would be going long on a first attempt of the main trendline and also the 200sma.



This bounced of the 23.6 fib level perfectly yesterday.

I was thinking similar with the S&P500. I like the look of the lower high and subsequent sell off. I think the UBS guys had 2350 as trendline support. Be interesting to see where today closes.

Already short,
M

possible 123 high formation?? or maybe the subwave 4 ive mentioned earlier.
I'm gonna short on a back test of 20777 if it moves there over the next few days on a first attempt basis during market hourswith tight stops of 50pips.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow21stmarch2017.png



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/Scre...03-21%2020.53.09.png

very tempted to short with stops above the high but thats over 170 points. But i wont take the risk as i only ever place stops 50pips max...

its gonna take some thing special to push past that channel top resistance which goes back a long time.
im not shorting just yet as have a wave 4 subwave to come and maybe a last wave 5 sub to re-test the channel lines again.
But would be nice to see a another gap down so as it forms a island top like food4thought mentioned.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow3rdmarch2017.png

Gap at open? Island top? Exhaustion. Certainly dark cloud cover

Richb wrote:
Wave 4 has completed already based on my counts. The chart I posted was a monthly chart so as I could fit the whole chart on to screen. And I'm talking about the primary waves and not any sub waves.
So not certain what your asking?

Remo this is what I was thinking

Do you see a wave 4 on the weekly back down before that top area you've mentioned Remo ?

For me , we are in wave 5 primary on dow and this is coming to an end soon so be very careful with new longs.
Ive roughly got the high for the wave 5 to end around 21733 area so roughly around 1000 points from current level on dow. Ive posted a very simple chart below to show the count as its the monthly chart as you can see its been one heck of a bull market and we need a big correction. My target is based of the wave 1 as wave 5 cant be the biggest wave so likely to be around similar size to wave 1 . So cant see this going past 22000.
Please dont ask me for the exact count as i remember giving everyone a headache last time around when we did the elliott thing back in 2009 in our private discussion board and also in the early days of our website. The good old days.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/elliott%20wave%20dow.png

Agree and certainly not suggesting any shorting but Dow, S&P500 and Russells 2000 are all showing RSI and MACD divergence on daily. Nasdaq is the only major US index not showing this on the daily but all show divergence on the monthly.

The run up from the 2009 low has been incredible.

Resistance on the dow currently at 21100 so that is certainly a shorting point.

When the trend does reverse it will be quick and fast IMO. First stop for Dow will be 19200 area.

I would not short the dow based on guessing. You have to wait for a 123 high formation before attempting any shorts currently. The reason for this is , its got no resistances above currently so you cannot do any shorts.
Shorts are done from resistance levels so the odds are in your favour.
So best to wait for a better signal to form.



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow19thfeb2017.png

I would be very interested to hear Remo's view. I cant see what will change the trend. I have been burnt on a no. of post 20k shorts which was really quite stupid..

DOW is not showing any sign of weakness.
Attached are 2 charts suggesting that the uptrend is strong, the 10 MA looks like very strong support.
Please feel free to comment.
Thank you.
DYOR, GL...

Thank you Trenfriend
Taking a short or long position at the moment can be dangerous.
IMHO, the RSI divergence may indicate a trend change. However, DOW seems to be stuck in a triangle and consolidation is getting tighter implying a breakout is bound to take place soon. A breakout to the upside cannot be excluded, should this happen the DOW chart should be re-analysed.
If we see a breakout to the downside, then the targets mentioned earlier may come into play

DYOR, GL

Hi Ocean,

Nice chart...

the divergence on the rsi which you have highlighted on your chart, is a bearish divergence......and therefore indicative of a top building imvho.....however, that rsi div has been present for some time and could continue to remain that way, and like your saying the dow keeps making new highs.....so must not just jump in short, based on that indicator alone...

For now, i think it's just a signal not chase these markets higher......or at least to be cautious now imvho....
having said that if the rsi breaks that t/line resistance,(i think it will) a further leg up on the dow looks likely...

To short i think a lower is the best signal, so a break below the horizontal support at 19750(ish) on your chart must go first.......

as always imvho, dyor wdik
trendfriend

Good morning

The DOW keeps going up with new highs, on the daily chart lower highs can be observed on the RSI. Could this be a sign of a breakout.

If we see a downside breakout from the apex triangle, the first piece of support sits at the recent low 19,750. The majority of decent support lies down at near 18,700.

DYOR, Good luck..

dow daily.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...FRlgjzjAHQhKA1fag%3D

careful with shorts here imvho, looks like a bull flag breakout to me at 19915.

this should now make new highs, lets see.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Hi Everyone, happy new year.
IMO DOW is approaching an interesting level, if a breakout is observed at around 19675 it is very probable further downside will be seen.

Tried to post chart but unsuccessful, hope this link works.

www.dropbox.com/s/t6ou0bbihbjyy0d/dow%20daily.png?dl=0

DYOR...

Getting close to a key level. Short from 18809.

Shorts standing by F4T roll on mon

Everyman and his dog will short at 20,000 or just below. Beware!

First time ive seen it change bearish on this indicator for a long while. Only thing is, the Christmas rally may mess this up.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/2016-12-16.png

I'm out at 19010. See you next year.

Yep will post when i see this change
Trendfriend wrote:

Hi Remo,

Looks good, any chance you could post a chart when you see a change in trend please?

Dow daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...xoTqaAZvxNOFbViMcR4=

After all the fun games of the election, this rallied back strongly and tested the highs yesterday, and break and weekly close above 18672, could see it rocket, a target as high as 20,000 dow is showing quite possibly by year end....

Only a drop below the 200 day ema line currently at 17935, would cancel or delay the bull argument, and a retest of that level cannot be ruled just yet.....

atb, wdik, dyor, keep safe folks.
trendfriend

New expert on metastock 15, Sectorstat. Its good for direction of markets
Click image to enlarge

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/Scre...11-09%2018.47.42.png

The blue arrow indicated a buy signal a few days ago and red arrow indicates sell signals.Above zero on the oscilators is bullish.
This indicator looks effective in trending markets and less so in trading ranges.

dow.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...FnglO0vkB7Bh2Zbd4%3D

ftse.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...7h2enQJghn4r6j66s%3D

dax.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...1pBHIl0KwmzglVF4s%3D

Just wanted to show, the rsi on all 3 index's today.
All of them are testing the rsi support from Jan 16.
In addition the dow, and dax both testing the 200 day ema line.

a break below, or down move today would be a disaster, imvho.
fan, s***(the brown stuff), and hit comes to mind.

It should hold and push on form here, but lets see....and anyway wdik....
gotta run now..

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

n.b these charts were from yetserday close, so the ftse, dax would have broken below those key rsi levels now.

It's also Halloween!!

be careful i make 17930 a key level. just my opinion.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Could be volatility while Thursdays election is still upon us, then push towards the highs again.
After all it is Christmas!

dow daily. (chart is from yersterday)
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...NexXxQmIiZfwzTBUc%3D

well i'm not quite as keen as you charts!

Bulls still in charge but only just, 19930 gives the bears the upper hand imvho ...but wdik
failure of the overhead resistance t/line may well have been a near term top??

atb, wdik, dyor.
trendfriend

Happy to go long at 17985.

November invariably a 'good' month.

Out at the moment.

Looking to go long by the end of the week, expecting a 3% rise in the dow and a test of the highs as the santa clause rally gets earlier each year.

dow daily

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...oteFyMYywlAMpguIw6I=

a triangle breakout is worth trading here, it should break upwards, as triangles are normally continuation patterns.

18345 is todays number.

atb, wdik, dyor
trendfriend

18565 happy to go short here.

DOW potential short 18700

Relentless moves totally out of sync with the economic picture (apparently). Who does money printing and low interest rates really help?

Interesting times ... I suspect a pullback soon just not sure how large it will be August tends to be a terrible month and I cant see any evidence to suggest why its not going to be this time around ....

Watch this level tonight or tomorrow its the massive daily channel top ...

Also note if you draw the fib retracement it marries up rather well on where it became unstuck on the way up

Its end of day data chart ...

I think this is now a inv H&S imho.
This could move substantially higher now, but off course we will get p/b's.
Possibly to retest the old high at 18345, and 18100 neckline.

as always dyor, wdik, and atb.
Trendfriend

theres loads of doji on the dow but even then im gonna be safe and sit it out to see whats happening

Going for 9 winning days on the bounce today.

A years resistance sliced through like a knife. Brexit has been the excuse central banks needed to go nuts. How high can we go without even a pb!! Imagine if Carney had cut rates today as expected.

stopped out already.

Im short from current level with a 100 point stop. This is a very strong resistance level so hence why im short.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/dow14thjuly2016.png