Good evening fellow comrades!!

Am I the only rascal thinking the markets are soooo volatile?

Dropped 200 points in a matter of seconds. 2days ago same thing only to recover. Tease and then drop.

What is going on

I still have my megaphone trade open - my first target is 40K - will close half there and add a trailing stop. Second target 42K

Agree TF - Looks superstrong

Comprehensive breakout on the Monthly chart
Short term it may fall back to current trendline

Longterm - I have target of 40K

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...krv0c7hlQVxznCGWdTE=

quick update on the Dow.

Looks strong....no real sign of any weakness here imvho...
Aside from the long term negative rsi divergence being the only indicator that's bearish....but we cannot look at that in isolation.
This all looks good for more up, above the red t/line opens up 38,000 area imho.
Looking at the rsi its been making higher lows since Oct 20. So a lower/low on the rsi maybe a early signal of the rally faltering.... if/when that happens

No stopping the Americans....pump...pump and more pump!!

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

The impact that Fed speeches have never fails to surprise me!

Yesterday was really interesting- the rest of the indices went down the Dow managed to stay green most of the time. It seems to be yo yo ing widely today. Very keen to understand what people think - my view is that the US technology is leading and is bringing the rest with it.

dow- daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ivx2lSVk5WjZ1LdTBmk=

outside down day on thurs played out perfectly with another down day Fri...
Not surprised to see a rally again as its a strong bull market and the rsi held support..

This is nicely inside this triangle only below 30300 would i be worried about lowe.
so 30300 no break no lower

above 32000 should see a new leg to the upside.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

I have got the following resistance points for the Dow:

- 31200, 31400, 31600 and 32000

Anyone care you post their numbers here ?

Many thanks
Warren

This is interesting - however it is a nice catalyst for short covering and short term bounce.
Point to note - the Nasdaq was the lead indicator for a long time and the trend line has recently broken and not recovered .

The Dow is on the ling term upward trajectory but there is an opportunity to get into some lower price in my opinion.

The price action during the last hour on Friday last week very interesting to say the least.

I might be shot down for saying this but I am temporarily looking for opportunities to go short

This will fly high on Monday

www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56221371

Hi all,

attached my DOW chart...Will it stop at 30000?

ta
G
Good weekend all

So again trying to get some clues from the leading indices (US tech 100 one of them) and Gold

So for the Dow i have the following points as numbers to watch to validate a potentially bearish position...

1. 31244
2. 31153
3. 30819

Comments welcome (like the good old days, where everyone was throwing in charts and supports and resistance)

I used to look forward to the Remo heads up messages...e.g. careful with new longs !

This looks set up for a March leg down..macro economically the growth figures for Q4 2020 and those who have "dared " to provide forward looking guidance does not support stocks at these levels...its the free money and in this instance the FED that is driving things...how can you possible accurately value things with such wild inaccuracies at play in these markets?

I have 31150 as the key support ( recent low). But the dow has the tendency of just taking out the stops there and moving so it will be interesting. The tech 100 seems to be leading at the moment and that got a beating today.

As they say wait for it to break to establish the short. And I would be shorting big (temporary) if it bounces off 31150 and keep going down.

As stated below - I am long term bull , the market seems very bullish long term. We just have to take some trades in the short term and then go long again at the right moment.

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...yTiuCHAUjRZl6eLUag0=

Just a possible first sign of caution with the dow imvho.
That looks like a outside down day today....so we should see further downside tomorrow based on that pattern.
This needs to hold the Jan peak at about 31200 to stay in bull mode here....

If 31200 fails we could see sharp p/b like we had at the end of Jan....then back up again imho. The bull market is not in danger....just a possible small p/b of a couple thousand points..

Just a little heads up to watch the dow carefully if your looking to go long on any new positions may be a idea to see what the dow does....maybe a chance to get a better entry by waiting
31200 is the key level to watch imho

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

As I was thinking its broken out of channel and going to moon, it comes crashing down?

What ya all think ?

ta
G

Amazing.

First it hit 32k, then came crashing down almost to test support.
What a roller coaster.

Megaphone or what I don’t know but it is certainly very choppy setting 32k the current bar. It almost seems to be going by 1000 each time

AdeMcG - that must be a big relief, financial freedom. I have been making plans for doing the same and it is a great feeling. Anyway, it is very nice to see a lot of old faces here. I remember the times when it was very buoyant - like an old wild wild west gold mining town Cant imagine how Paitech can be here for that long but there is Libero and gang too ....

I have been watching the price action and as the general trend is up (and the megaphone pattern from what i can see is also something you see in a bullish trend). However, i have been waiting on the sidelines for a pullback - even a small one to get back in.

Anyway - with the Dow flying up and down i thought it was best to remember Remo's wise words around not to trade the Dow during non standard trading hours - this was shared when we started the chartsview group (not sure how long ago but must be easily 8-10 years ago).

Wow thats impressive AdeMcG, Final payment? wow... a big weight off the shoulders...

I have a huge one, so my shoulders are struggling lol

Stay safe, regards to your fam.

ta
G

Hi all,
I hope you are all safe and well in these uncertain times.

We paid our final mortgage payment in December , so we had a nice relaxing Christmas, only had 1 salary instalment since (January) so looking forward to Feb to really notice the difference.

Back on topic here..was thinking March has often been a rough time for markets, I think April might be a turning point here.

Good luck and more importantly, stay safe

This has broke out of my megaphone today on the futures so taken a small long - very small, as need to cover the 2000 points to the recommended stop position of 29.5K!

Thank you Remo.
Kind regards
G

In my other post to you Paitech, I did say if the Dow goes above it’s high then longs back on...as long as higher highs are continued then you can stay long, just look out for signs of 123 tops or lower lows..
This market is behaving crazy, and when every body is trading(public), then you know a top can’t be far away...
Apparently 1 in 5 Americans are trading.....that’s a lot of newbees, so market is getting primed for a drop soon...
So basically look for a 123 top formation....but these are kinda risky to trade as moves down normally happened in 3 waves so you do get a lot of false signals...so have to be ready ..
So basically play smart....

I am really confused.
Remo said Dow could go down and I closed most tmy long positions, and now TF is saying it will go up?
I am not sure what I should do?
Buy my longs back ?
Please confirm Remo, TF

No idea about waves/elliot waves...so can't give my view here Ron....nice post and chart btw...

i do think technically the Dow's next stop is 35,000.
This is very much in bull mode.....so no shorting here....buy the dips imvho.

stay safe folks...

atb
trendfriend

Hi Paitech - np, I know it's not like the heydays although it does seem to have picked up on here this year which is good.

It's not a pattern I'd ever come across until this year but from the details on the link I posted it does seem to tie together. What i don't get is that what i've read suggests megaphones generally occur as wave 5 - which would fit that this has been wave 5 of move from 2008 but then they frequently breakout to the upside...which would tie in with world events if Biden is about to inject a ruck load of cash into the economy...but then if it's wave 5 and it breaks upwards, where is the ABC wave going to come from

Hi Ron,
I saw your entry yesterday, but am no expert... and our resident experts are not on here frequent....
Sorry...
Ta G

Hi all, looking for some advise/comments from those that know more about charting than myself (so everyone )

I've been looking at the weekly on the dow for a while and comparing it to the megaphone pattern, until yesterday I couldn't really get it to fit. Then yesterday I moved my start point forward from Feb 2018 to Mar 2018 and everything (seemed) to fall into place.

It appears we're approaching the end of the 5th swing. The swings seem to comply with fib extensions between 1.27 - 1.62 [1-3623,2-5513(1.52),3-8157(1.47),4-11367(1.39)] with the 5th swing needing to extend approx another 1000 points to fall into the bracket.




My question is do you think this is a valid application of the pattern (the chart is futures as I don't have access to daily with any chart software)?

If it is then it would suggest we are about to either breakout (target 40-42k, stop below 29.5k) or breakdown (short below 29.5K, target approx 23k) - either of which would be pretty lucrative trades!

Also interesting that RSI has complied with downtrend resistance for the duration of the pattern.

As i said - comments appreciated as can't tell if i'm barking up the wrong tree.

Cheers

DOW charts attached....
Its almost on the top of the channel from 2018.... will it breakout ... or go down....
also in rising wedge... attached weekly charts.. 31800 to watch?
experts please comment

ta
G

....I hadn’t noticed until looking at the monthly that the March bounce point came at the support line from the 2000 and 2007 highs.

I was looking at that trend line in the monthly the other day thinking similar....was also looking if there was a wave count which could fit with us being in a huge Enid g diagonal that started back in 2018

TF,

Why is my chart totally different from yours

I think if DOW doesnt break out from 31054, it can go down... on weekly and daily chart attached...

ta
G

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...6pemc2tb28bPlmqa4%3D

You know for sure we are currently in a strong bull market when we have a complete disconnect between the real world and the markets....and i know these markets look ahead....but seriously we have economies devastated and borrowing sky high!!

at the end of the day traders must respect the market to win.....and these markets are (for me) saying up, up and more up imvho....all of that QE....pump, pump and more pump!

35,500 > 40000+ targets for 2021....

I see no reason to short this imho....you can only short if you have a reason to do so....like a gap below the 50 day ema line or a lower low.....or weakness in the rsi...etc.

Currently i think its a case of "if you can't beat them.... then join them"
Buy the dips....no selling and shorting....imho

At some point it will all come crashing down...but when??

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

The Dow caught me off guard yesterday. I went in a bit too early and got stopped out.

After briefly breaking out. of the wedge to the downside it’s not done it to the upside.....wondering if the market is expecting more financial stimulus due to what look like they will be couple of horrid months covid wise in the US but going to be sitting on my hands for a while with the DOW as seem to have been wrong about every move the last couple of months!

So....firstly Happy new Year
The Dow gas continues. It is retesting various levels and looking at them price action does not want to go down.

Back to the basics the charts points towards and up trend- with loads of buying at the pull backs.

I thought 30000 was high now it seems to be heading towards 31k. Mental.

Retested the breakdown point around 30000, taken a small short, 200pt stop.

Rising wedge has broken down. RSI divergence for a while, could the top be in? Possible pull back to 25k area

I have so far used the 4 hour charts for direction. Yesterday the long term trend line I thought was broken. I am watching the price action closely but as indicated in the posts below I can see some negative divergences forming and lower highs and lower lows . Time to watch closely

Hi SE and all....

Yes this does have the negative RSI div hanging over it....unfortunately you cannot use one indicator in isolation....its got to combined with other bearish indicators or set ups....and i don't see them right now...

it did look like the market would come off again....with a lower ow in late Oct....but then the vaccine news plugged the rug from under the bears feet....

The markets currently have lots of headwinds....but in bull markets they just get brushed aside...

Can these markets tumble??.....yes
is there a big bubble and top building??......yes

Question is when?
this is just going to keep pumping imvho....someone i follow is suggesting 2023 for the next bear market/phase....

with only corrections along the way...

lets see...
atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend

Price action on Friday was interesting, doesn’t seem to break out past the 30200 mark just yet. Which may still support the wide horizontal trading range maybe. It seems to be range bound 29600-30200 with the ascending triangle.
I am still struggling to find a trend so sideways is the best I have at the moment .
Gold seems to be moving up again.
By the way I did a small short on Friday but got stopped out which told me to stop trading until the cloud clears up for now

Negative Divergence on the RSI? Many of the factories I work with in China are working flat out for sure - Although the supply chain has collapsed due to demand and they are literally running around with cash trying to secure components. Freight container prices are soaring due to the bottleneck on increased demand (£2k in October for 40ft container -currently £6.4k and forecast to be £10k in January!!!)- Dollar is weakening - All means inflation and higher prices on the way = strong headwinds? The parabolic rise in stocks is unlikely to end well IMHO

dow- daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...z1nveVImQxHksSQj/EQ=

i don't see any technical reason to be short on indices imvho.....
From a fundamental perspective it does seem logical that as covid gets beaten the markets will head higher....usually led by the US.

just my thoughts....as always wdik...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

After i got stopped out yesterday on a blind sided trade, i had to revisit some old techniques and went back to Remo's classic lessons

Anyway, to cut to the story short, I looked at all the chart set ups and found the 4 hour chart that seems to be respecting the trend lines and and forming an ascending triangle pointing to 30k

Chart attached - with the markers of how i put my thoughts together (the grey box of where I thought was a value punt).

My short got closed out so no doubt the trend will be down now

..on a serious note whilst there are positive indicators on the charts news wise I don't see there is any good news left to come out, I also imagine the US is on the brink of a couple of pretty horrendous months covid wise. Logically this would drag the markets down but then when do the markets act logically!

I want to go short again but feel like i'm chasing and too freshly burnt to make decisions I trust so sitting on the sidelines for a bit.

Forgot to add my most important point - I am struggling to understand what the trend is ...

Some very interesting moves going on the Dow. It’s retesting support, and got to the 30k mark again today. So loads of testing at the moment . Whip saw to be honest!!

waverider2 wrote:
Great Charts (as usual) TrendFriend.

Waverider's view is why it's now even more (surely not!) important to be nimble or stay on the sidelines - where I'm gonna be for now.

After that Dow spike caught me out, I've gone back to trading Nasdaq, Russell, FTSE and S&P, just restore some account credibility.

The Dow I think, is going to be the index tracked in my SIPP and ISAs for the long term. Intraday trading it is like russian roulette!

Very interesting Trendfriend. There is a high possibility of break out and then you wonder where it will stop. The other thinking is that the big move recently could reverse to form the wide side way move. We will see

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...VpiO+QdkpTojYPyGiJU=

dax - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...4mNeT+KiENFT8PVdBag=

ftse - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...uG+KURipEUUu5T/Mxyk=

no stopping these markets.....standing in the way of bulls is dangerous.....
All 3 main indices showing bull flag consolidation.....and for the dow it looks like a higher high and breakout form the flag....could well be the start of the next leg up....
careful if your short....maybe time to hedge....
if your long enjoy the rally...

crazy markets imho.... but it is what it is...
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend