fibs

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...mCErZRWRdfC3KM158%3D

not perfectly a double top but close enough....
as they say "when you see a double top....you sell a double top"

dax - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...CukWmQ3okBH3J4b9k%3D

similar on the Dax...
certainly seems to be strong resistance above 24700.....on the Dow

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

remo wrote:

The head and shoulders formation has been cancelled as it’s broken above the shoulder and looking to test the highs again...
The trade was valid but it moved down real quickly and then bounced just as quick...It did not manage to finish below the critical level for a few days...Thats why it’s important for a confirmation to hold..





This is starting to look bullish again and if it takes out the recent high 24904 then it’s likely to move 2000 points higher and target the 78.2 fib level...So a target to 27000.....
So one to watch for new longs above the recent high

If 61.8 fib is taken out then there is a good chance that it will recover the full 100%..
Due to all the manipulation going on it seem bear markets can be stopped...lol...
The best part is, my moderna shares seems to be the cause for the recent rally in the markets...
The charts are looking bullish again so can only go by that..,
But this market is very risky as any bad news on the virus and the down trend will resume so got to be ready for that as well...
We are not out of the woods just yet....
I’m currently long but will change to shorts if I see any weakness below 24450...

FIBS

Range Bound

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...K/sSJhZAAdI/fhBeJdU=

huge bullish gap up above the 20 and 50 day ema line has really pulled the rug form under the bears feet.
this looked set for a big drop last week, but every time we get a few down days....the fed seem come in and rescue these markets!
we do have a serious disconnect between the real world and the markets imho

This being the dow...expect the unexpected and the bears should make a come back....
24764 for a double top? or a test of the 200 day ema line before a new leg lower...towards 22000.
maybe inside of this new broadening triangle?

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

FIBS FOR DOW

R1 24821.20
R2 25772.22
R3 27311.59

Expecting Dow to exceed .61.8 fib retracement levels, spx to hit a min 3000-3050 level before a major pullback commences specifically for swing trade, watch the 200ma. Until then chop chop up. Short squeeze rallies.

It's never a straight forward. As I see it, it's playing out I'm (and I'm sure others too!) expecting the bulls to climb to 25,200.

Once 25,200 is hit and properly tested, then we can truly say that we've seen the back of the dtop or dare I say, if there's a worthwhile pullback. For now, we're on track to this target with the Dow at 24,450 as I type. So, perhaps another 750 points to go.

I'm scalping, and resting, scalping and resting - I can't afford to hold any position for too long.

Once 25,200 (or near enough) approaches, i'll start taking positions longer than a few minutes!

But for now, forward thinking and all, I'm still cautious - the retail investor is piling in, and I don't wanna be that guy!

Paul Schatz, the president of Heritage Capital, said the Dow could hit 30,000 points by 2021 and 40,000 by 2023 as the U.S. economy recovers over the longer term.

“To bet against the U.S. economy and consumer over the long-term is a loser’s game,” Schatz said in a first quarter note to clients.

“I firmly believe we will see Dow 30,000 in 2021 with Dow 40,000 coming by 2023. Once we get over this massive hurdle, there will be too many things working in favor to derail that train when it gets going.”

Markets push higher as Moderna reports positive vaccine results
Optimism that a vaccine to combat Covid-19 will soon be produced is also driving the markets higher today.

DOW futures looking good aswell up 700. Starting to open long positions. I don't see this crashing, all the bad news is built in.

As far as I was concerned, we broke the trendline, of the head & shoulders, tested it today (not in market hours though) and now is the start of the next leg down. We had A and B, now for C.

I was expecting, past the low of March.

Remo is the expert, a potential target would be great?

My bet, I had a go.

The 61.8% fib, is exactly at horizontal support. 15,293.

So between 15,000-16,000. This will be combined with everybody panicking and wanting out of shares, as it's dropped so much, and then we'll start to move up again.

remo wrote:

Head and shoulders still intact?
Is this heading for another leg down ?

Look at the clear head and shoulders pattern forming....
One to keep an eye on...

here's the 2nd chart of the notice black box

this is a cash chart - so accomdate futures moves, as that when stop killers come out to play.

nice move up and imo coming into completion, then expecting choppy sideways move down (not a fast waterfall that was seen in the move down from highs) to retest the lows to complete a Flat correction - probably sometime in Aug2020. Dow is KEY.

hope all well and stay safe folks !
WS

Anyone got the latest chart?

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...IFrbD70BzraZiSe3d8w=

be interesting to see how this closes imvho....
second gap down today this time below the 20 day ema line....but will it close below or rally and close the gap!!

the rsi is still holding trendline support and the neutral 50 level....

really is bulls vs bears tug of war....today could well decide who wins the fight for the next leg imvho....
this has rallied up to retest the 20 day ema line today just below 23600....and failed....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

madmaxx wrote:
Madmaxx,

good to see you man! the ol' gang is coming back one by one

let's hope CT, RedChilly, WaveSurfer, Greville and the gang stop by!

On the Dow, yep, two down days and this session looks under attack - it's not pretty, but it's a trader's dream.

Has the 20 day and 50 day moving average just crossed over, suggesting a bearish market move?

Hi, since there is 5 waves move up, i think it could do double correction or even go to new highs(it would make no sense but we live in strange world so who knows), just an idea

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...vezBOD%2Fxk2mzwM4%3D

gapped below the trendline and the 50 day ema line which is about as as bearish a signal you can get imvho....
that should provide the momentum trigger for more down imho....

rsi is just about holding on for now....
the bear setup is here....if this doesn't drop now....and rallies back up....then the bears are pretty much done for imvho...

lets see...it does seem the markets have suddenly realised whats going on in the world!
its not going to a quick V shaped recovery by any means in my opinion...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

remo wrote:
Maybe it's IG

with the usual "Data is Indicative" catch all clause.

I checked back in history on my IG Chart....seems the original 61.8 fib level was around 25260 area....
Over time since I’ve drawn that fib level seems to have moved on its own...It needed adjustment .......I wonder if there was a lot of traders like me that drew the lines and never adjusted it... Hence why it dropped from that level.......
Some thing to ponder over in the future...
So basically I was very lucky with that short trade......dam.....lol...

Umm,,,,,,those were the levels I had drawn ages ago,,,,,seems like levels have changed on ig....kind of confused.....lol....as I placed my order ages ago and I suspect loads of others as well...
So seems like ig have adjusted chart....but funny how that level worked on a first attempt....

On my metastock the level to watch is 25261.......that’s the 61.8 fib level....

This was the Dow , look how this hit the 61.8 fib line perfectly and dropped during the night....Shows you the strength of that level on a first attempt....
The 61.8 fib level was at 24894.........the down went as high as 24903.....,Then dropped.......
The power of the fibs in full action there....easy trade...
the real question is will this hit this level during market hours...
Ive already gone short from that level and may add to short if it hits again but kinda risky as it’s a second attempt...That’s the problem with 24 hour markets as it confuses things...

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...rCsGJA4ejCKfJK5ec%3D

another nice rally yesterday!
the rsi has come up to test a resistance level and if this breaks out....there should be no stopping the upside momentum imvho...

The 200 day ema line would be the next target....but tbh honest this could well hit the previous highs pretty quickly if it breaks out from here!

the question will then be "was this down move a bear market"?

bear markets are usually brutal....think of the bear market we have just seen in crude oil that's how bear markets are imho...
bear markets should make investors regret they ever heard of the stock market...this started off being brutal with a big sharp move down...but now its running away back up!
Which would again in my opinion this was a overdone correction....and not a bear market...

Either this makes it way back down....or i would say the "can has just been kicked down the road"... because historically we do get a bear market every 10 years or there about....

Someone i follow was saying the next bear market should be around 2023! and not now...

Or maybe this is the new type of Fed style bear market we will get now?

questions...questions and more questions...
anyone know the answers?
lets see how we go...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

The markets eh? The final frontier in some people's eyes

They said it's "forward looking", but I'm looking at a new new new new normal here, and I don't see full jets, packed cinemas and cruise ships just yet. So, who then decides what timeframes the markets look to?

Is it all the companies vying for a vaccine? Is it the lack of chatter about "what if" (as in, what if a second wave is coming? what if the vaccine is bringing with it 2nd order issues? what if this heralds a new "era" in uncontrollable outbreaks, and souring trade relations on top of global nationalism?

(oh, forgot to mention, dire FORWARD GDP, dire S&P forward earnings too)

The markets, right now, don't care one bit; "trade what you see" is a message I frequently hear and see, and that's cool, but I'm gonna hold for long.

TrendFriend - great chart again, and it could be a crazy correction, but I'd go with your earlier assertion that it's not done yet - not because I want to believe etc... but because forward-thinking or not, the market has no real structure, the only thing that's true out of all of this is: "Don't Fight the Fed".

The Fed doesn't need to buy equities directly (they don't), but they can buy the debts of companies, they can buy ETFs, they can create an environment where money has no place to go other than into stocks. All this means, a big bounce - but not without (bigger) risks of its own.

Longterm_view - I'm watching the 61.8 line like a hawk, and remember, the move to the 50ma was built on low volumes; again where's the structure - are the market internals sound? We'll see I guess!

Remo (and Jackozy too if he's reading this!) - would love to see Bull / Bear cases some time - I might give it a try myself over the weekend.

Be Safe folks!

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...wLLgYifR3uAv4nm0U%3D

this keeps on going up and up and up!

Something does seem to happen around this 50 day ema line...
second time we had a p/b from that area....

The 200 day ema line is also key imho....technically in a down trend while below that feature

the 50 day ema line is at 23997....the 20 day ema is 23353.
If i draw a trend channel as in my chart...then in between we have the trendline....
so this hasn't run away as far as we think from these key levels.....and i still think a substantial down move should take place here.....quite possibly even a lower low....

If it doesn't then i will clean some egg of my face...
perhaps more importantly if this does runaway higher from here....i would question if this was a bear market at all??!!
or just a strong correction?

lets see what this does first!

atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend

Dropped at the end, but still held the 50ma I believe.

Only the 61.8 fib at around 25220, to hold this back.

If not, I should have bought.

DOW broken the 50 (MA)

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...HI9qkcwtkXWoUXi6o%3D

starting to drop a tad here...

22941 is the key for a lower low imvho....if it goes below that we could see a stronger move down...

atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend

Good post Libero....i think its better to keep a neutral mind set when trading....unlike me!!

going to be an interesting last hour....
cometh the hour....cometh the dump!

lets see...atb,
trendfriend

Trendfriend wrote:
Hi TF,

Thank you, I'm learning from your guys!!!!

Yeah, the Dow (5min) trendline held up, until...... 8:55pm

But it did its job for a few coins (for the benevolent Fish & chips fund) within the range - i.e felt at east going short and long, just made sure I didn't hang around!

I honestly don't know where this is going - we've got more data today which will mess around with the market a bit, but I'm trying to look past bearish / bullish bias - which is very difficult to do.

I know the a lot of the bears don't want an economic or market collapse, some don't even want to short the oppertunity; rather, they simply want to get some bargains before riding the bulls high. As for the bulls? they are just nervous and only committed to a one way bet.

I'm just trying to stay out both sides' thinking and trade - but my own favoured view matches the bears looking to buy the market, with a "if it happens, it happens, if it don't, it don't" qualifier.


Stay Safe Folks!

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...hZYRoVsuacRa%2FTU%3D

I was looking for down day! but the dow held its gains well....small sell off into the close....

The dow closed yesterdays gap almost perfectly today....and the rsi held support.....for now....but tomorrows another day!

nice chart Libero...good work with that trendline!
seems like your enjoying trading the dow!

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

an intra-day job, 5 min candles... but I drew that trend line back at around 2pm? it held!

the supports - well, some where drawn last night, others a while back.

Technical Analysis is scary.

Range Bound early doors

23365 - 23505 +/- 10

Starting from a very high number today.....
Wonder where it will finish the day?

Real test for this nervous market.....

I think it will end the day down Imvho....but I’ have no intention of trading it

atb
Trendfriend

Looks like bear flag has broken down:

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...R57abSDbJubngCRoA%3D

i don't know if that is a wedge or not tbh....but it is a trendline for sure....and we have closed below it...
so the first sign of any real weakness....

2 key things to look out for, we have only once had 2 down days in a row (in the red circle) since the low...
tomorrow if we get 2 and then 3....sign of change in sentiment again....
Watch the rsi imho...needs to break below the support line for real momentum in this move....

lets see...
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Trendfriend wrote:
Accordingly to my chart, the Dow looks like it’s broken that uptrend, since the March low.

1st wobble.

Trendfriend wrote:
Dropped out of that Wedge I think?

The fear is around the unexplainable with what's happening to the May contract with Oil - wow.

I shorted it last week - held it for six minutes to collect..... £7 yes, fish n chips.

Damn!

(and you know a hell of a lot TF! hell, I'm learning!)

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...6EVZJxRJNawzJqEx8%3D

its tested the the bottom of that wedge today already....will a second test hold??

730....all eyes on the dow!
anyone know whats causing todays drop?

crude oil looks nasty

Libero...i'm just learning....i promise you i know nothing! but it really is great to have you and so many of the others posting....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

your chart is better, TrendFriend

But! the question still stands - isn't that rising wedge? (I can't go to specsavers just yet)

Indeed, the market will ask (or be asked?) questions as it approaches the next key fib level (which might just be the 200dma).

I don't know if the "bottom" is in - lots of schools of thoughts there, but I'd not rule out another sizable correction (maybe taking us to 21k handle) before we decide to turn.

i have no idea, but watching this space, and scalping along the way in either direction. Someone has to help the local Chippy stay open!

Stay Safe People!

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...BG2u31pjZyQOkkmuE%3D

looks like Libero's s&p chart...

keeps on pushing up, up and more up!

Well as the saying goes "the market is always right"

will it continue higher this week?
it looks like its at a key level at the top of the wedge...so lets see...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

[quote=

watch that Dow spike disappear.... [/quote]

oh yes i'm watching.... is that all the bulls have got?

atb
trendfriend

chief66 wrote:
exactly; and ....

Gilead’s coronavirus drug: why experts are cautious on its prospects:

[url=http://]https://www.ft.com/content/063912aa-047d-4b7f-97e7-c9cb9133264d[/url]

and....

Gilead’s Coronavirus Wonder-Drug Remdesivir Is Masking A Board Contagion

[url=http://]https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/04/17/gilead-coronavirus-drug-remdesivir-board-contagion-covid-19/[/url]


watch that Dow spike disappear....

The Gilead drug is an after treatment not a vaccine.

It won’t stop the spread of covid, but may help to address some of the symptoms..

www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-a...onding-to-treatment/

remo wrote:
If it turns out, that the Gilead Sciences vaccine doesn't work, my word, this will fall out of the sky.

Or if, as you say it, (That agent orange is one crazy fool. ) lets people back and it continues to surge, that will make things worse for the long run.

We can only watch, especially as I didn't buy anything, it stings a little

dow- weekly.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...OAzDu3I6IjxCygSII%3D

most of the action on dow for the last couple of weeks has been centered around the 200 day ema line on the weekly chart....always a key level imvho....
currently at 23832....

its Friday today....bulls seem determined to take control...if we are trading the chart then its important to see if we get a convincing weekly close above that level today...

with the dow nothing is certain i would not be surprised to see it fail imho...
Off course close above 823 should give us the strength for higher...towards the 200 day on the daily.

atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend

Libero" post=16747]I understand the markets are forward thinking - and we should always trade what we see.

I thought one of the reasons the market jumped up is because Agent Orange said he's opening up the country, alongside news of Gilead, and Roche and others too.




That agent orange is one crazy fool. I’m just shocked Americans still love him even thou it’s so dam obvious he is a serial liar and a retard who will do any thing to stay in power. He does not care about the people but himself..I think the worlds gone mad recently as we have trump in america and an equal fool with boris over here. I hear people want boris Knighted for recovering from corona, even thou he was the reason UK has the worst stats in Europe for deaths related to corona due to his herd mentality idea which in the end got him the virus.

It’s crazy people that believes in people like them that are proberbly pushing the markets higher ...lol.....but once reality sets in then it will all correct as it’s just common sence.
So in the mean time you have to trade what you see and don’t get so emotional with just one side trade (short)even thou it’s obvious.
Hope everyone is keeping well in these crazy times