Closed 25128, down 6.9%....

On a quick look, only on phone.

Perhaps somebody could post a closer up chart....

I have a trend line break and a break of the SMA20.

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...PK1M+25fnNW6El0tQEU=

make no mistake here...a island reversal is very much a trend change pattern imvho...
this is going to do a island reversal in some style

25,000 level is the key imvho....that's where the dow needs to stay above....watch that level now and the rsi.....
break below both....then

Initially though it would be just a small p/b....but this looks dangerous here...
For me the Fed have put themselves between a rock and a hard place here imho....with the Nasdaq hitting new highs...the dow and s&p rallying nicely do they keep pumping money into this??
The market is sending a very clear signal today...will the Fed have the will to keep putting this trillions in??

lets see...nice charts and posts guys....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

For forward thinking market i can see one of scenarios in favour of further bull market, where lockdown could be in place policed by whatever means necessary, and industrial revolution 2.0 take place in the meantime. We must remember 5g technology is coming and it opening ways for so advanced technology that is hard to believe can be seen in our life time. Robotics,Self driving cars, artificial intelligence, internet of things, hydrogen.
People are not ready for such a revolution and therefore must be keep away from transforming the world,i know its a bit harsh, maybe they will let us enjoy it making but many work places will be lost and current virus situation i can see as preparation for bigger things to come. Some people more related to this technologies are saying this could be like jumping onto big cliff in development of civilization. Some of them prefer natural growth but some wants to make it as quick as possible and if market keep rising this fast it not hard to see which way we might be going.

madmaxx wrote:
Love your charts madmaxx - keep them coming!


See on the long term - grand supercycle (and I'm not wave theorist by any means nor do I subscribe to wave theory, but do respect it - I'm simply giving my macro take), your projection could very well happen, simply because the anticpated "hyper-inflation" everyone is associating with the Fed Printing is only likely to occur in assets; why? because those trillions aren't going to be in the hands of Joe or Jane six-pack.

The bulk of the Fed liquidity will be in a closed (and unholy) circle. Zimbabwe, Venusuala, Weimar Republic this is NOT. Inflation will be preserve of the markets, certain asset classes and some commodities.

Fed printing could however, export inflation to the rest of the world with developing nations hit hardest. That could (and will) happen - its already started to happen; and yes, that will also mean the UK - especially in a post-brexit world where the GBP will be more vulnerable.

Ergo, Dow 45,000 is possible over the next 5-7 years.

But, us "traders" are more interested in what happens next, and i'm intrigued to see if the Cash Open at 2:30pm will convince people to buy the dip. I'm strictly selling rallies for fish n chip money.

And if somehow we make new high like Nasdaq did then its most likely going to be wave 3 of 3 of grand supercycle, probably most powerful wave ever

On smaller time frame if it is wave 4 then i'll be looking for its most basic pattern, like on the chart below(also other shapes are possible), we will have a big clue around 24900 area if reached, according to ewt rules wave 4 can not overlap wave 1 therefore very strong support at this level, but its Dow and can do anything so pls dyor, it's just my ideas

If we about to go all the way down then something like this may be seen

Interesting development here, but this could be a simple range-bound pullback (energy), before giving another high a go.

I'd like to see the Dow (obviously the SPX too!) retreat further say, south of 25,840 before I'd say that a correction is in place.

See how we're all coming up with different numbers

The anticipated top (Fib 100%) may be stalled by the fact that everyone was expecting it to happen as a formality.

Now, the market is forward thinking obviously, so they aren't too bothered with what's happening now. However, what's happening now could set the tone for what might happen later:

1. Inequality protests and riots may a) create the envirnoment for a second wave, and b) impact consumer and desire / confidence (not just from covid, but from CS gas or a brick to the head - anything is possible); c) speaking of consumre confidence, how long is the Treasury and Fed going to keep paying "wages" for the soon to be unemployed?

2. Chairman Mao, excuse me, Chairman Powell, said that we'll have zero rates until 2023, that means forever, which could be mean asset bubbles - but market forces will tell you that you can't inflate insolvent and bankrupt companies forever (or who knows right!)

3. Upcoming US Elections vs International Relations - Tried gaming this one, and decided to have a lie down as my head really hurt (or maybe that just a horse or tear gas can or a brick that hit me!)

Irrational exuberance & Moral Hazard - may be terms that we be heard more frequently.... Hell, maybe they need to be redefined when kids with a gambling tendency are buying Bankrupt shares like Hertz using fractional facilities offered by brokers (book-keepers) - when sports come back, that money could find another place

Be safe people - we're all watching this move closely to see if it's genuine or simply profit taking / coiling the spring before the next move up.

I see two scenarios from here, as remo was saying dow can visit high again then we are in wave 4 now and one more push higher can happen before larger correction,




already at 23% fib

if its wave for then similar pattern can occur

Wow... huge gap down down looks on today....
Watch 26383 for a island reversal....

If it does happen then it’s clear technical signal for further downside imvho....

atb
Trendfriend

dow- daily next targets on this chart
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ru3L1a95SoA9zfTzI%3D

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...XuvF1jIWnD6oX7PxM%3D

can see from here when the rsi goes 70 or above we get a decent p/b.
not in this atm....but this should be a small p/b to let the overheated rsi cool off a tad....before more pump upwards imvho....

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

8:15 am: Bank of America clients sold stocks last week
Bank of America Securities clients sold $3.2 billion in U.S. equities last week while the S&P 500 gained nearly 5%. The clients bought ETFs and sold single stocks for the fifth straight week. “Selling was broad-based across client groups, where hedge funds and retail clients have been sellers for the last eight and five consecutive weeks, respectively,” Bank of America equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall said in a note. “Financials led the outflows last week with its second-largest selling in our data history since 2008 — consistent with the record low investor positioning.” — Fitzgerald

remo wrote:
Hi Remo,

Thank you for the above (hope you and the family are well).

i've been reading about this, and indeed 76.4 doesn't really hold much weight compared with 61.8; here's the thing - does anything work right now with all the intervention? Technical Analysis still works obviously - like musical notes someone once said - but for me, it works for the short (ultra short term due to much intervention).

I can't say that I walked away unscathed either - it's just part and parcel!

I would however say that there's a lot of "air" underneath this rapid move up. (and forgive me, will need to get a chart - but are there island reversals patterns again? it looks like it).

Anyway, back to the point on "air" underneath - without structure, surely - intervention or not, the market needs to revert to the mean.

Will keep powder dry - but as i type, the Dow (futures) is down 300 points - could be something could be nothing.

Normally 61.8 fibs will contain the move but once that gets taken out and it hits the 76.4 fib level then that normally signals a full corrections to the trend prior ...I’ve seen this happen loads of times in the past so hence why I suspect a full move back up....I must say thou, on paper it should be heading down big time as common sence says it should...lol...There is so much manipulation going on so you just have to follow the charts and right now it’s bullish...
I will still look to short myself if I see a reversal but it won’t be with big shorts again as this market has been deadly to shorts recently..

If a second wave happens with regards to coronavirus then you can see the markets visiting the lows again...
Right now it’s all about the virus and how it plays out...

remo wrote:
Well, i don't mind saying, I'm side stepping this. I know my own limitations, and this market is a bit too complicated (for a lack of a better word!) for me.

And, the more i study it, or try to - the more confused I become.

The fact that the 76.4 % fib has crossed imply the Dow will head to new highs soon...
So be really careful with shorts .
You need lower lows to start going short...
I’m fully invested currently but will keep a close eye on them....

DOW fibs

www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/...lassification-error/

Looks like the Unemployment figures were subject to a "missclassification error" the classification of people who disengaged from looking for work, due to safety concerns (upto 6 million of them) were misreported as being not unemployed. Oh my Mr Trump...to stoop so low is criminal

When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.

The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May. But that would still be an improvement from an unemployment rate of about 19.7 percent for April, applying the same standards.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that puts out the monthly jobs reports, said it was working to fix the problem.
“BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue,” said a note at the bottom of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.
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The next big problem for the economy: Businesses can’t pay their rent
Some took this as a sign that President Trump or one of his staffers may have tinkered with the data to make it look better, especially since most forecasters predicted the unemployment rate would be close to 20 percent in May, up from 14.7 percent in April. But economists and former BLS leaders from across the political spectrum strongly dismissed that idea.
“You can 100% discount the possibility that Trump got to the BLS. Not 98% discount, not 99.9% discount, but 100% discount,” tweeted Jason Furman, the former top economist for former president Barack Obama. “BLS has 2,400 career staff of enormous integrity and one political appointee with no scope to change this number.”
Economists say the BLS was trying to be as transparent as possible about how hard it is to collect real-time data during a pandemic. The BLS admitted that some people who should have been classified as “temporarily unemployed” during the shutdown were instead misclassified as employed but “absent” from work for “other reasons.”
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The black-white economic divide is as wide as it was in 1968
The “other reason” category is normally used for people on vacation, serving jury duty or taking leave to care for a child or relative. These are typically situations where the worker decides to take leave. But in this unusual pandemic circumstance, the “other reason” category was applied to some people staying at home and waiting to be called back.
U.S. economy gains 2.5 million jobs in May
The Department of Labor said June 5 that the U.S. economy added 2.5 million jobs in May and the unemployment rate dropped from 14.7 in April to 13.3 percent. (Reuters)
This problem started in March when there was a big jump in people claiming they were temporarily “absent” from work for “other reasons.” The BLS noticed this and flagged it right away. In March, the BLS said the unemployment rate likely should have been 5.4 percent, instead of the official 4.4 percent rate. In April, the BLS said the real unemployment rate was likely about 19.7 percent, not 14.7 percent.
Economists said the big takeaway is that it’s hard to collect real-time data during a pandemic and that while the unemployment rate remains high — likely more than 16 percent — it has declined a little from April.
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Trump clings to jobs numbers as a campaign life raft — and as a race-relations plan
The unemployment rate comes from a survey where Census workers ask about 60,000 households questions about whether they are working or looking for a job the week of May 10 to 16.
One of the first questions that gets asked is did the person do any work “for pay or profit?” There are then 45 pages of follow up questions that come after that. One of those questions asks if someone was “temporarily absent” from the job and why that absence occurred. One of the responses is “other.”
The BLS instructed surveyors to try to figure out if someone was absent because of the pandemic and, if so, to classify them as on “temporary layoff,” meaning they would count in the unemployment data. But some people continued to insist they were just “absent” from work during the pandemic, and the BLS has a policy of not changing people’s answers once they are recorded. It’s how the BLS protects again bias or data manipulation.
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Former staffers said it’s unusual that the BLS was not able to correct this problem faster.
The U.S. economic slide is likely bottoming out, but a recovery could take years
“It’s surprising the BLS couldn’t come up with fixes to make this work in May,” said Erica Groshen, the former BLS commissioner under Obama. But, she adds, “This is a very unusual situation. There are lots of field staff who had a tried and true way of asking questions and they were doing what they were used to doing.”
The only political appointee at the BLS is the commissioner, who, Groshen said, does not have access to the data and only sees the finalized report.
“The commissioner never sees the job report before it is final. As commissioner, I did not have access to the underlying data,” Groshen said. “This is a highly automated process.”
Instead of focusing on possible Trump interference, many economists wish people would focus on the fact that 21 million Americans are currently unemployed and over 2 million have permanently lost their jobs.
AD
The situation remains dire, they say, even after a few jobs returned in May as the economy reopened.

Dow has made lower low on the short term chart...
It has jumped a tad from that l/low but I think this shall drop in the last hour...

In hindsight I went short to early today... should have waited until now...

Let’s see... how it goes...
Atb
Trendfriend.

Trendfriend wrote:
I think, as Remo shown us, that we need have ultra-wide stops nowadays. I had a position that was underwater by over a grand for a couple of days, before returning me with a couple of hundred quid profit in the overnight sessions - it's not good - it's not good for the health!

i'll never do that again, so i thought, but we feel like we have to chase sometimes, knowing that the weakening of the dollar (boosting stocks) will result in exported inflation here in the UK and elsewhere too.

With regards to your short position - I have 27400 as the line in the sand after 27140 got taken out.

The market is over extended I feel, but hey we need our resident experts to give us their take.

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...YFu6p0KybwR0rnSIK9U=

more than a couple of hundred pips down now
i'm only risking what i made....still holding here...i can stay short until 27350 area....

not ideal...but i think its time for a drop...however small imho...
the rsi is now over 70...whenever that happens we get a p/b....

will the drop happen soon??

atb
trendfriend

Trendfriend wrote:
Make Hay TF!

Dow support at 26960 right now - its a crude line, but there or thereabout.

in terms of resistance, i got 27140

the US markets are behaving like their President!
its all extremes...on the way down and on the way up.....

this is absolutely a bubble....matter of time before it pops....but it could last a while now....6 months? 12 months? who knows?
not me for sure!

anyway...had a long scalp...but short now at 26966.1

wish me luck....was 40 or so points down a min ago...

atb,
trendfriend

DOW FUTURES 27044 +762

Looks like 27000 going to be hit today once the US open, incredible.

At this rate, we will be around 29500 sooner than later.

AdeMcG wrote:

Yep,

just for traders to try and stay solvent until then!

The market is on a tear!

or, the explanation is of workers coming off the welfare system and going back on to the job protection scheme as employers try to re-open, but here is the catch. To ensure the companies get to keep their bail out money, they have to keep folk employed for only 8 weeks.

Could be just kicking the pain down the road and come 8 weeks later, expect the numbers of jobless claims to once again jump upward.

Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, says the US unemployment rate “mind-blowing number”:

The US unemployment rate has shocked everyone because the number was much lower than the market expectation. Speculators were whispering for 20%.

This a mind-blowing number and shows that the economy is improving. Things are not as bad as many thought. This data, if it is a true reflection of the economy, is likely to speed up the recovery for the US economy.

AdeMcG wrote:
something is weird.

but hey, what do i know - trade what we see.

in any case, let's see the 27-handle approach sooner.

anyone else think the statisticians have got numbers mixed up on the Jobless count?

Inside Informant wrote:
Indeed, but opening this economy won't be like a switch - too much disruption, to many cogs in the supply chain decimated.

and while the Tories are trying to coerce the "ordinary" kids back to school, I don't see Eton & the top schools being open?!?

And of course, there's the matter of the second wave - which may or may not come (obviously, I hope it doesn't come). The market will of course ignore it, but it will end up taking more people out of the workforce.

I don't know' obviously I'm ranting, but more about the seemingly stacked decks from the powers that be, rather than a desire to make a buck.

I wish you the very best in getting that second chance - maybe at 22,500 as well as 24,000.

I've noticed the bad job numbers have been ignored. Investors only focusing on re-opening of the economy.

Hopefully when it hit 27000 it will go down to 24000 so we can get a second chance

Indeed Inside Informant.

It has beaten the 200 DMA in overnight trading, so 27175 looks there for the taking.

Not sure the jobs number or anything is going to change things.

I'm tempted to scalp again, but why risk losing what I've stressed for!?

Good luck in any case folks!

27000 target still intact. Should happen by next week

I'm not touching this....

It's too dangerous now!

we've seen some strange closes of late - tonight was another 100+ points in a few minutes after a relatively down day.

Some folks are doing something somewhere, and i'm not going to play.

thanks Inside...corrected now

It looks like the chart you posted is for DISH and not the DOWJ

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...PPVd+0LwHi+5r4XFzbI=

not a perfect touch and move down from the 200 day ema line...but a clear rejection....so far anyway...

lets see how it closes today

atb. wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

As the first move up was looking rather obvious in terms of wave count, then current structure is unclear for me, I can not recognize the degree of this move, my proposed structure is like on the chart below, but it can be also wave 1 of 3, only time will tell i suspect.


There are voices saying its only going up so the rich can get out before another move down. A lot of sources are now turned bullish on indices, and we could speculate it could indicate this is about to turn. Another thing on my mind is telling me, that the move from 2009 was grand cycle wave 1 of 3 and we now starting wave 3 of 3 of the same grand cycle.Another idea is that its going up so the next move down even if go 30%, it won't look so savage on the chart. Also in terms of time, wave 2 of grand cycle which lasted 9years(2000-2009) and wave 4(proposed now by ewt should take similar time, so in this situation for next several years we should expect rather sideways move then resuming trend up. Some people saying about big triangle?.Just my thoughts, pls dyor

have to agree with your take below Libero....
The lows are now a distant memory....the only way we may those numbers again is we have some kind of serious second wave of the virus....hopefully we don't.....

in the mean time a 10% or so p/b on profit taking after a strong rally looks more likely?

as i type this to me imvho looks set for a decent dump going into the last hour....which is relief for my (underwater)short

atb
trendfriend

you're tempting me to quit the sunshine (and work), and join you on the trading floor TF!

I'm just going to watch for now, but I wonder, with this much liquidity (the Fed and market) I can't see the market re-testing the march lows.

Oh, I still think (on balance), we'll get a nice pull-back, and some stocks - some- will fall again, and hard, but the "lows" index wise have probably arrived for now. (remember, i'm a rookie - I'm a casual trader, not an elite etc...)

The liquidity vs solvency argument is an idealistic one, and not may folks are interested in that (with much regret).

The market is getting a pass right now, poor earnings, poor accounting, poor GDP, high jobless count, more defaults, more people dying even - the market just keeps on going up. However, much in the same way we have decent pull-backs, in 2011, 2016, 2018 etc... we'll get one again before the year is out I reckon. The Dow may fall to that 22-handle you mentioned in your recent chart.


Personally, in light of poor bond returns, poor savings, and a mistrust of individual stocks, I'm only ever likely to trade indices to try to beat inflation.

Wishing you all the best of luck - and good health above all else.

first trade in this for a while....
short at 563....stop above today's high at 25850. may well cut a far earlier if it looks to be rallying


i think the 200 day is step too far...and the bears may see an opp to come in here...so a p/b before higher again imvho....but wdik..
lets see...

atb
trendfriend

Bravo if you have been trading this...
really is great work...

if you did sidestep these markets...then you still beat 76% of IG clients!

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...H9F0k4FVofK5rd/1Bms=

looks like this will gap up above the 200 day ema line today
lets see where it opens....if retreats...may well fall back to 22600 area imho....
if it gaps up and above then? new highs?

looking back in hindsight....maybe it was obvious the fed would rescue the markets....especially with Trump at the helm...
its all he's got left...the US economy, high employment and the rallying stock market....
with the first two in the dumps now....he needs the markets to boast about something....with elections looming..

well now i know the Fed can save bear markets....pump pump and more pump!!

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

longterm_view wrote:
Don't sweat it man.

Capital Preservation is Key (and you'll always get a chance in any market).

Moreover, wha's going on here is just freaky. The market loves to move when it's closed, but either sells off, consolidates, or adds a topping DURING market hours. That is freaky. where's the volume?

No structure or foundation, let the Dow hit 50,000 and the S&P 5,000. it only means that the real world is gonna suck even more.

As I type this, the market is "adding a topping" some 500 points on the dow if you bought the dip at 25,000 at 4pm. Again, I don't know what to make of it, and when there's uncertainty, i'd rather sit it out. It's not my money anyway!


Lastly, I'll leave you with this, I've been nipping in and out, doing ok (tiny amounts here and there - totalled up looks ok); but at what price? I'm working longer hours to make up for "lost" time, I'm not eating properly, I'm not working out as much, I'm not even enjoying the garden much during this glorious spring.

I'm slowing down to a couple of trades here and there (very early in the morning usually!), but in my humble view - all of this is overrated. Time is King, not money

Well, looking at the massive rally, I have played this terribly.

I’m not loosing any, but I’m not making anything either.

I’ve been sitting on my hands so long now, I don’t think they will work.

Daily Battle lines:

https://ibb.co/mt3XH97

Dow Daily


The five minute shows the battle on the 61% fib line more closely:


https://ibb.co/wSF1jTD

Dow 5-min

Hi Inside Informant,

As was discuseed, this trade was likely to be on - for how long I don't know.

I did take a short nibble (very!) early doors @25,257.7 this morning, but I've actually reached the point of exhaustion of nipping in and out for a scalp here and there due to my mistrust of the markets.

It's getting silly where the overnight action (the fed? blackrock as their nominees? I don't know) is just becoming too much of a factor.

Consider the bank-holiday (sunday evening to tuesday am), the SPX Futures moved some 2% up in what? a 10% volume - with the markets closed (whatever happened to buy/sell, supply/demand, etc etc etc)

That simply vindicates my view of not holding anything no matter how tempting.

Another factor is that experts (including ours) are conflicted about what's happening - and if my betters are conflicted, what chance do i have.

So, I'm nipping in and out even less, sure, this means less fish n chips, but I get to keep my hard earned cash in my pocket for another day

fibs

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...mCErZRWRdfC3KM158%3D

not perfectly a double top but close enough....
as they say "when you see a double top....you sell a double top"

dax - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...CukWmQ3okBH3J4b9k%3D

similar on the Dax...
certainly seems to be strong resistance above 24700.....on the Dow

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

remo wrote:

The head and shoulders formation has been cancelled as it’s broken above the shoulder and looking to test the highs again...
The trade was valid but it moved down real quickly and then bounced just as quick...It did not manage to finish below the critical level for a few days...Thats why it’s important for a confirmation to hold..





This is starting to look bullish again and if it takes out the recent high 24904 then it’s likely to move 2000 points higher and target the 78.2 fib level...So a target to 27000.....
So one to watch for new longs above the recent high

If 61.8 fib is taken out then there is a good chance that it will recover the full 100%..
Due to all the manipulation going on it seem bear markets can be stopped...lol...
The best part is, my moderna shares seems to be the cause for the recent rally in the markets...
The charts are looking bullish again so can only go by that..,
But this market is very risky as any bad news on the virus and the down trend will resume so got to be ready for that as well...
We are not out of the woods just yet....
I’m currently long but will change to shorts if I see any weakness below 24450...