Ocean10 wrote:

There seems to be some logic in this too..S&P seems to be in a trading range for the last 12 years or so

www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/trading_diary.php

xmas rally scenerio finished on christmas day. we have had a nice rally this year which started on 16th nov and ended on 18th dec so not quite christmas day but a rally of 800 points is not bad.Its been like this most Christmases .
Santa has gone back to Lapland for preparation for next year.

Diver,
Suggested target of 12920 met , hopefully we'll head upward now.....

Remo,
I agree with your comments particular with the head and shoulder scenario.
I would like to propose an alternative view since the drop is heavily linked with news “fiscal cliff”. If Obama and crew come up with something during the weekend, DOW can bounce off the 61.8 fib !!!!!, an area of previous resistance may now become support. Who knows?????

dyor { I suppose I need to put that }



www.dropbox.com/s/zeunf4q051q58nt/DOW%20daily%2029.12.12.gif

this is starting to look bearish again.
It looks like it may be heading towards the main trend line.
If you look carefully you can see the right shoulder of a head and shoulders forming(the bigger one that i mentioned a while back).????
Ive got no positions on the dow currently as waiting patiently for a good entry .Ill go long on the first attempt of the major trendline.
The dow has also finished below the 200sma which also is bearish.
The way to trade this is by waiting for a 123 high or trade of the trend line.
so look to short once the dow pulls back up but wait for the signal of the 123 high.So you have to be patient.
Or go long on first attempt of major trend line during market hours only,again patients required.
If your trading the dow you have to trade it day by day so views will change constantly so please bear that in mind if your a day trader.


dyor

Diver
Thanks for sharing your view and for your comment, 14400 should read 13400. I wonder if there is a possility of DOW touching the 13400 area before going further south during the next couple of trading days.

Ocean,
The recent move up from 12472 is actually a simple ABC move and not an impulsive 5 way move as indicated on your chart.
We are currently experiencing a pull-back from that move, which I anticipate will make around 12920, before heading north once again, when I anticipate it will make it back into the magical realms of the 14,000's. Hopefully at least 14100. All IMHO of course and you are very ,much entitled to your view. Have a great time this holiday!

Hello everyone, hope you are all set for x-mas, is Santa going to bring the xmas rally next week??? may be 14400 !!!!

www.dropbox.com/lightbox/home?select=IND...60m%2021.12.2012.gif




Merry X-Mas everyone

Ooops! That didn't go well! I wonder whether that was the end of wave B up? Easy to count these waves both ways...

I've been looking for a way into the Dow and since it closed above the downtrend resistance I figured I'd go long on a backtest of the latest breakout point:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily19_12_12.gif

Not sure if this will work out or whether it'll backtest the previous downtrend before rising further...

It's the target I was referring to. It just so happens to be the dows all time high.
14200ish
Sorry for being so cryptic . Was seeing if anyone else saw the same thing.Its quite amazing how targets seems to be headed for known resistances most of the time.
Dyor

remo wrote:
It's the first wave of 5 up to 14000

Ok I have no idea.

Hi Remo

I was going to stick my neck out here but I am a bit stuck. I hope your are not going to say an emerging head and shoulders position! What I can see is that 13300 will be a strong level of support (if it ceases to be resistance). I anticipate you are probably talking about waves and the like which I haven't got to grips with yet.

Dejavu

does anyone see any thing interesting about the breakout and finish above the symmetrical triangle?????????what it could imply

im surprised that no ones mentioned this today.
This is currently broken above the short term down trend line and symmetrical triangle.
if this finishes above that line then this will head towards the recent highs at 13600.
As can be seen from the chart below the dow has had a nice Christmas rally. nearly 900 points up since the start of this rally.
The dow is my favourite index as technical are easy to read.



DYOR

hi Amo
Its just the way i do things on the dow.
It stems from my Elliott counts i do on the dow and the way i use the previous day high as a means to the next wave as such.
its just some thing ive noticed over a long term and its in no books as such so its really just my thing.
So it probably wont help you much in understanding what im saying.

Hi Remo,

From a technical perspective why is so significant to finish about yesterdays high even if the DOW closes up and above the 23.6fib? Sorry If my question is abit naive. Just trying to understand the important of closing above previous day highs.

Thanks
Amo

If the dow can finish above 13190 then id expect the dow to go towards the recent high again(13329).
It looks like the 23.6fib level held which is kinda bullish to me as that signals a strong trend is still in play.
So as long as we finish above 13190 today then id stay bullish. If it finishes below this level then look to 13000 for possible bounce next


DYOR

If this does finish below the trend line then look to enter long at 13000 as thats where the 38.2 fib level is.Its bang on that level.
Obviously im long currently but just pointing out a key level to you guys


dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/dow13dec.png
DYOR

Ive gone long on this from the first touch of the trend line with a 40 point stop.
This could be a risky trade thou due to the previous candle. Im currently in profit but only just.This was a first touch basis trade.
If this does finish below the trend line then a bigger correction will follow. This may then test the 13000 level.




DYOR
remo

OK this is what I am seeing on DOW

clip2net.com/s/2BnpW

Plenty of support around the 13000 with fibs, resistance and support turn to resistance.
If looked at on the hourly even more support

RMc

yesterday i shorted the dow at this point,13290. Made a nice profit.
Today i wont be doing that as that level is getting weaker as its been tested a day latter.
When a level gets tested a few times then it normally weakens that level. Hence why i only ever attempt it on first touch basis.
dyor

Hi diver,

Yes, your count is certainly possible, as is the idea that the move down from 13663 to 12471 was a full ABC correction on its own and that we're now in a new uptrend (wave 3 of 1 of...?).

I note that since my bearish FTSE post this morning, its long term RSI seems now to be trying to breakout...

I don't have any index positions open at the minute - just waiting for a clear signal either way but I'm coming round to the bullish view!

Hi Jackozy,

I don't think this was a five way move as there was no divergence on the RSI to denote the fifth wave.

screencast.com/t/e6FSk9Eehwa

This may seem a little extreme but I reckon the DOW is headed for a test of support at 12020

It bounced exactly off the old uptrend support line at 13307. It's possible that the move down from 13662 was a 5 wave move and, if it does drop below 13011 from here then the move up from 12471 will look a lot like 3 waves.

In addition, 12471 was the 38.2% Fib of the move from 10404 to 13662 so a 5 wave move down to there followed by a 3 wave move up ought to be followed by a further 5 wave move down, possibly down to the 61.8% Fib of the 10404 to 13662 move at 11663. US fiscal cliff could make this speculation a reality perhaps?

Time will tell...

should be a free trade now.
Also if it heads towards 13290 again then dont try and short it again.
This only works on first attempt mainly.
dyor

here's an example... dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/Dow_90_69Fibexample.JPGWaveSurfer wrote:

I tend to use 90% (assessment of lower highs)& 69% potential area to watch for out signs of reversals - all depends if these levels get taken out or not will give me further direction of the trend whether corrective or impulsive and also provides initial area's of previous breakout/breakdown / support/resistance

from the chart you can clearly see both the 90% & 69% of this current move up represent the price range when the move down started 90% and recommenced 69% to make nov 16 lows...

its just something I've noticed and use to observe pivotal area's in conjuction with the conventional fib levels. ......

regards WS

Whats with the 69% fib ?

that also happens to be 69% fib level - dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/dow11DEC.JPGremo wrote:

Im shorting the dow from 13290 on first attempt basis with a 40 point stop.
Theres 2 levels of resistance together there so will find it difficult to push through on first attempt i suspect.
The resistances are from the down trend line 13294 and horizontal resistance 13290.
This is only for today




DYOR

Three Rising Valley....dyor

will post chart later...

Don't know why but MS shows short term downtrend at 13307(today)nearly crossing with long uptrend today

Yep, I see plenty of resistance in the 13296 to 13340 area too. The hourly chart already has bearish RSI and MACD divergences but they can't be totally relied upon. Here are the 3 levels of resistance on a daily chart - they are the horizontal resistance at 13296, the short term downtrend at 13344 (today) and the previous uptrend from the 10404 low which is at 13314 (today):



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily11_12_12.gif

Dow has already started its christmas rally a while back now.
Its approaching some stiff resistance so will be interesting to see how it does.
The obv is rising pretty quickly so signs of volume behind the moves.
For real strength to come the dow has to finish above 13336.
Is this creating a big right shoulder i mentioned a while back?????



DYOR

WaveSurfer wrote:

lots of resistance now... 13148 & esp 13168, until these level are taken out and close abv Dow cannot go higher, if it does 13300 here we come...unitl then markets will chop, chop chop and certainly wont go any higher. i also expect shorts to come in at these level and i rather wait than follow the mass .WaveSurfer wrote:

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/dow_07DEC.JPGWaveSurfer wrote:

2 pips from my target in futures market, let see what happens in the real market, taken some positions off and locked in

1421/24 spx - 13150/70 dowWaveSurfer wrote:

i still go with the current B wave rally for now , although any move north which is very possible, maybe a close above 1421/24, then id go with C being done this morning... all to play for

i wouldnt be surprised to see 13148 v.soon

great day...

illustrative view... dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/DOW_1HR_5DEC12.JPGWaveSurfer wrote:

looks like 5 wave down from recent high to lows in a wave "a", followed by a "b" wave rally - current and final "c" wave to follow imo.

in addition 5 clear impulsive waves from 16th Nov...

will post chart

This is approaching the short term trend line on the hourly chart.
Im gonna go long at 12950 with a 30 point stop.



dyor

www.dropbox.com/s/7kk0lr9ysbkmioj/Dow%20...%20PM%2024.10.12.gif

Could not upload image for some reason, here is the link:
www.dropbox.com/s/7h78jv59wufrb0y/Dow%20PM%2024.10.12.gif

Some believe that TA is closely link to identifying waves pattern since pattern repeat itself. This is where I may need help from more experienced chartists. The hourly DOW chart below is showing repeating pattern. It is possible that my labeling is wrong as I'm trying to learn EW. It seems to me that we are now likely to see a bit of upside over the next few days. Please feel free to put me right if the chart is misleading. Thank you.