pick ya spot & short the b wave rally imo for w4minor c down 13728/665 looks like a good spot for a 1st target and maybe a reversal. should see 5 waves down in a zig-zig or maybe a triangle just to add to some confusion... alternate minor 2 was irregular flat 13365-12883.

watch ya stops tho and manage them well, get a feeling the cleaners might come out to play after hours we hang abt round here.

line in the sand to invalidate - 14021

dont say the market didnt give ya chance today...

Remo - the Dow can dance and its dancing at the moment. I am taking that the 14198 can still be met as the fall today is at a random place - at not a known resistance. Maybe thats just the longs being closed just in case and one more last hurrah to take the unsuspecting lot to 14198 before it tanks?

if the dow finishes below 13860 today then id expect the dow to go towards 13660 as thats where the breakout point was. If that level fails then down she goes.

so the levels to watch for today are
13860

i will be really upset if we have had the top already All i wanted was for the index to move another 200 pips then drop. Its not asking for much.
The indexs are all struggling currently.
still waiting patiently for my short entry on the dow

PS, I was reading about what the top guys (and I mean the really big guns in the US) do when trying to offload a (large) position at a key price level such as this.

I think it was Paul Tudor Jones who said that he places orders to close half his position (let's imagine he's long Dow currently) well inside the key price level, say 20 pts, and then places order to close his other half on the other side of the price level.

The equivalent trade here would be to have a short inside 14198 and another on the other side at, say 14218 to catch a cheeky one.

Just thought I'd throw that in.

I'm sure there will be an almighty battle at this level, not least because it's only the Dow, not the S&P500 or FTSE) which is at its all time high. S&P bulls will be trying to keep the market going long IMHO. And let's not forget that most US index traders trade the S&P not the Dow.

I doubt it will be cut and dried but I wouldn't mind if it is lol!

Yep, updata has 14198.

14198 is what I have as the all time high.
That's from metastock. Thomson Reuters so I'd expect that to be correct .
It would be nice if someone with Updata can also verify.

Remo- I am getting confusing highs for the Dow in 2007. I have got 14164 and also a mention of 14198.... Please can you confirm?

Thanks

I'm using a 40 point stop. But I must admit i was thinking of extending the stop loss just this once due to the special level.
But that will go against the way I trade so I have to stick with the 40 points stop loss.
I don't want to start to change my style of trading and second guessing every thing ....I have to stick to my own rules.
Can't be changing them as once you do it once then that could have a spiralling effect with future trades. Well for me any way as my back ground is of an addictive nature....lol
Tough decisions for this one trade.....
I'm still weighing this up....
ill stick to my 40 points stop and if it gets taken out so be it. I can always re-enter on a 123 high for a short or if it breaks out then always re-enter on a long on a proper back test.
The key to trading well against the Dow is to not over trade. Just wait for the best levels then trade them.
The first touch rule works best from a far and not close up so bear that in mind.
Enough of my rambling
I'm looking forward to the week ahead.

For the record:

The last time the Dow closed that mark was Oct. 12, 2007, when it settled at 14,093.08. It had reached its all-time record, 14,164.53, three days before that.

The last words from my grandmother a few years ago was :

"son, always short a double top"...it wasn't clear at that time and i wasn't sure what she meant lol.

These words have been haunting me for ages- and now I think it's time to execute he last wishes . On a more serious note, I think it's definitely a key point we are approaching so I have put my orders in, at least the first touch according to remo's rule. If there would be a breakout of this range iMHO it will come as an ascending triangle to break this highs. So I think there will be a correction before a breakout to a new high.

Is 14,900 the magic number??????

I've been taking a look at the long-term view as under......





and a better view is linked here....
screencast.com/t/zEDYjuzVYd

It doesn't all quite fit onto one page. The main relevant missing bit is the origin of the low from which I've take the first point in the fib expansion - it's 570 back in Dec 1974 at the time of the oil crisis..... I remember it well... and the power cuts:(

Anyway, the high produced at (a) was a 61.8% expansion of a. If you project that forward to the present time a 61.8% expansion of (a) to get ((a)) gives a target of 14,892. Now that's based on PRT data so, rough figures let's say 14,900ish

Even more significant for the 'high pickers' is the consideration of what follows..... the pull-back will, once again, be severe ...... so why try to pick the top when the scope for shorting will be so big?

As has oft been said, the World and his wife is expecting this pull-back, so there's a whole mass of short orders out there with stop-losses attached. Guess who's vacuuming them up? Which, in turn, causes further extension in the bull market. Which encourages more retail traders to invest even more in short-orders.... and on.... and on ... until so much has been lost on stop losses they all give up and the pros step in and short the hell out of it!

Me? I'm gonna wait for a five swing move south, in one of the small time-frames to confirm the move, then jump in.

all time highs, mmm, i think a Bull may want to take them out , get one over on the Bears.
However my plan would be to wait for a retest should it breakdown. Good luck all

1 Pez 1 wrote:

Everyone knows of this level.
But how are they going to trade it???
Im going short on first attempt only as thats my style of trading.
Everyone has a different style and a lot of people dont short.
A lot of people will try and catch the breakout to the upside(most beginners).
so its not really that clear as i know of a lot of people that wants to go long.
Most people on this board knows what im planning
Im planning on going short with a 40 point stop just incase.

so my point is even thou people know of the high on the dow what are they going to do about it.
I bet its a mixed bag.

I have a small SHORT position open from 13976 which was the high on 30th of Jan.

My SL is 20 points.

My entry was based on divergence on 4H chart + yesterdays candle making a LH and a LL

I have a sneaky feeling that today may be the day!

I too think it will overshoot it's high as it seems every man and his dog is waiting to short at this level.

I will bet small on first attempt and see how it plays out.

yep and guess where my inv h&s target on the daily take the dow to ?

14200 ish.

will pop a chart later on.

screencast.com/t/kQtaOqzda3




So, where will it turn??

Equal legs from the low at 10404 and it could run all the way up to 14,969; 76.4% would see it to 14,277.
If we are looking for an expansion from the wave (A) from 12,035 then 100% brings us to 14,098, very close to the all-time high?
The best scenario? For me, maybe wait for 5 swings back on the 15minute chart before getting involved: catching this top could burn the fingers and it has a long way to fall.....

I'm also pretty sure, given the recent strength of the market and the importance and widely known nature of this level (plus the fact that it's only the Dow's all time high, not the S&P500's or the FTSE's), that there'll be some stop loss hunting.

It could overshoot by quite a few pips.

You're not alone remo though I'm going to be disciplined and not get carried away.

I've been reading Market Wizards by Jack Schwager recently. IIRC Paul Tudor Jones was short 2000 full S&P contracts when the US opened on Monday 19th Oct 1987 By the end of the day he had closed and was long.

I think I'll probably go in a bit smaller than that LOLOL!

The dow is only 250 points away from the best shorting zone possible
This is my count down
Im actually waiting patiently for that level to get hit so i can short it back down to the bottom of the ocean. Obviously i will be using my 40 point stops during market hours only.
This is one trade that im looking forward to.
Knowing my luck it will bail me out then smile at me and show the 2 fingers up at me. and then drop back down then back up to suck in more people then yoyo around then drop.
If its the real deal it should reverse fast of this zone.

The dow is approaching its all time high. This level is an important level as everyone knows

that this is the highest the dow has ever reached. I would be very surprised if the high got

taken out on the first attempt , so for this reason i would short the dow at 14198 with a

40 point stop during market hours only. I wont short this level if the dow closes very near

to this level from the previous day. The attempt should be from a far away like 100 points

away. When ever it closes near a major resistance then the chances of a breakout are

higher so hence why this trade should be done from a far away basis only.

Another reason for the short is due to the double top possibility. When ever i see a share or

index approach a double top scenario i always short on first attempt. I always prefer a

double top short if the time since the last high is over a year ago or more. This way the high

means more. Just my personal feeling.

The reason it should be from first attempt only is due to all the shorts lined up at or near that

level.Its a well known level so its gonna put up a fight. If it pushes back on the first attempt

then it re-tries again on a second attempt fairly soon after then chances are there wont be as

many shorts there as the last time so higher chance of it breaking through. A good resistance

level should not breach on first attempt.Otherwise its not resistance. It will need some thing

special to break through this level on first attempt basis like a market moving news. Thats why

its wise to have a stop in play and trade this during market hours only as then the chances of

the news causing wip saws are smaller.This is due to all the main news being released before

the market is open (13.30pm UK time). If you placed a trade before the market is open then

you may get caught up in the crazy market moving hour before the market is open.The swings

can really be wild so a lot of stops will be taken out.



The above is just my feelings on the dow and people should only trade the dow if your

experienced . Its not a forgiving index so only trade what you can afford to lose. Always use

stops and never trade more than 2% of your trading capital on one trade.

Most important is

DYOR(Do Your Own Research.

Hi Diver thanks for that. From a non technical view I was expecting a pull back as we moved closer to the March debt ceiling deadline. Now they seem to have suspended this until May time maybe the rally will continue even further....I do agree there will be a substantial pullback its just a matter of when.

screencast.com/t/GoAIejKJYWqu





This chart is a very simplified version and is not intended to be EWT specific, rather to give a general overall view that most will understand

Well I think we are now very close to a big pull-back. The move up from 10400, which started back on Oct 4 2011 is nearing possible completion at around 13900ish (my data is not the best, hence the 'ish'). Granted it could extend a little further to 14070 area but, a pullback is imminent. When it hits it will go to, at least 12600 and, more likely, 12200.

My advice would be, do not buy into this market. Sell and take profits while they are there then, buy back in on the dip. All just IMHO.

WaveSurfer wrote:

2 numbers to keep an eye today for the dow for further upside

13784
13853

yesterday close triggered another buy signal on the daily, that doesn't mean it can pull-back before it gets bought again to:

13684
13618
13584

-div also seen on some time frames chart, however in wave 3's these can last for some considerable time and negate.

Spx terms im looking at 1499/1507 before we get a pullback to 1485 - 1472 and finish of int Wave 3 1523 -1550 for now.

1472 - line in the sand.

I'm surprised no one mentioned this today.....lol

If the dow does break past 13662 then the head and shoulders pattern i was on about becomes void and then look to 14200 before any shorts.
13662 is an important number and if it does get broken then the dow should head towards the all time high.
You have to be flexable when trading the dow. Infact trading full stop.

Hi Amo
Im not short on the dow as i never trade the dow in pre-market .
I only ever trade this during market hours only.
Also i like to trade at key levels when the price approaches it from a far and not when its very close to it.The dow closed at 13649 on friday and that is way to close to attempt a short during market hours on the following trading day.
I used to trade the dow outside of market hours many moons ago but my stops were getting hit and made alot of losses due to it.So i adapted my trading to be done during market hours only and an attempt from a far works the best.
The dow is only beatable if you respect it. Dont ever over trade this index as its not forgiving.
Patients is the key to beating the beast. Trade from key levels only.
Im planning on going short when the dow closes below the previous days low from current levels.

down below 13571
up above 13662

The above two areas are just a guide to what to expect and not actual trades play.

dyor
Amo wrote:

Isn't the US market closed today for Martin Luther King Day?

Hi Remo,

Are you short on this mate? If so good luck

Amo

I always use a 40 point stop when I trade the Dow . This is due to the crazy moves it's capable off.
If you use tighter stops on the Dow then you are likely to get taken out. I used to use 20 points a long time ago but it kept bailing me out then head in my direction .i find 40 points works best for my style of trading.
Everyones different.

Hi Remo, out of interest how come you've sent your stop to 40 points?

Im gonna short the dow at 13662 with a 40 point stop during todays market hours only.
Im surprised its getting this close to it today.
I wont attempt this trade tomorrow due to the close proximity to that area.

dyor

Hi wreckless eric

The short is only for today during market hours only.
with regards to shorting.
ill explain that latter when i get some time.
I use IGIndex (spread betting company to short with but there are many spread betting companies that do it.
just look up www.igindex.co.uk . It will explain about shorting on there website some where.
remo

Remo, what is the time scale on this downtrend for the DOW and how does one short, never done it yet? Being overseas I only use one online broker who will accept overseas residents, had to close down TDW (EU residents only) and Selftrade (UK residents only).

Remo said:-

"Ive also noticed recently that there seems to be a lot of false breakouts around with shares so wondering if we are near the top????

What ever happens i will be shorting the dow if it gets near 13662 with a 40 point stop. Personally im not expecting this to go to that level as im expecting the right shoulder of a bigger head and shoulders to form."

Published on January 16, 2013 (the latest French (anti-USA/UK) economic speculation of downturn in 2013 (March - June Quarter):-


www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-71-is-available-U...e-global_a13066.html

Nice S&P 500 chart, long article and only shows part of release, have to subscribe for rest.

If you look at the chart you can see how the short term trend line that was breached back in november 7th is now acting as resistance. The price is following that line
The dow looks like its losing its momentum and there is an obv divergence on this as well.
Ive also noticed recently that there seems to be a lot of false breakouts around with shares so wondering if we are near the top????
What ever happens i will be shorting the dow if it gets near 13662 with a 40 point stop. Personally im not expecting this to go to that level as im expecting the right shoulder of a bigger head and shoulders to form .
The key to beating the dow is not to trade it all the time. You should be patient with the dow and only really trade it of important levels . Patience is the key to this index. If you over trade this then it can wipe you out.
DYOR

there was a great level to go long on first attempt .
been busy so missed this trade
there will be others

Has played out to below 23.6 fib so far, will it go as far down as as the 38.2 fib and then continue upward????

DOW is now hanging around at the support point, could this be a 123 scenario





www.dropbox.com/s/wp2yw4y5qap4dnk/Dow%2015m%20123%207.1.13.gif

Views welcome
GL

my view is that it could still be forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top. The only time that view will change is if the dow can break above 13661.
Thats the level ill be shorting the dow with a 40 point stop as that area is quite important.Obviously on first attempt basis,but if it is a true head and shoulders then it should not really go that high .
For the short term if this finishes above 13366 then expect the recent highs to be tested.

so
up above 13366
down below 13100

No mate, the move was too quick and did not realise that it will move that quickly to form a double top !!!!
Remo/Diver what your views on the DOW following this big move.
Thank you.

Did you get back in mate?

Happy New Year
In excess of 400 points gain during recent 4 trading hours (since posted last chart, WOW). RSI divergence noted on 30 mins chart when hit 13360 area, sorry not by pc so cannot post chart.

GL

Ocean10 wrote:
Don't look now then

Happy New Year

Climbed 90 points since drew the chart (15 minutes ago) , wish I had taken a long. NM next year....

Is that a BULL Flag developing while Obama is making up is mind???????



Happy New Year

I believe a deal will be reached by the govt , and there will be a relief correction lol. Traders could think ok deal struck, but price is still high so let off some steam first before we try to do a higher high.

This could be one scenario.