Amo wrote:
Hi amo
I'd class that as a 123 high.

Cheers Remo, If the DOW goes lower than Mondays low today would that be classed as a 123 high?

Amo wrote:

Sorry did not really responded to the question properly.
I'd look for bearish candlestick patterns and will look to confirm this by lower highs. 123 highs .
Until you get the lower highs it's risky calling the tops. Trend lines breaking is an added bonus but the trend line for the Dow is miles away.

Amo wrote:
Hi Amo
My main Reason to say that it could be a sign of a trend reversal is mainly due to the fact that between April and October the markets likes to correct. If you look back a few years of the Dow you can see it likes to correct between these months.
The dows had a good move and it does need a correction to go higher as well. Corrections are healthy.

SirRichardBunson wrote:


Hi srb
Yes it applies to all shares as well.

Hi Remo,

What would you look for to suggest there could be a change in trend rather than just a correction?

Thanks
Amo

P.S. Good call with the Marubozu

Hi Remo,

Just curious but after reading your Dow post this morning I could see that Afren was showing the same candlestick and sure enough it reached just above the target area and then fell so can I presume that the Marrowboozy play does apply to shares as well as the markets.

Cheers

SRB

Just goes to show how many traders are aware of that pattern
3 points out..There's still a chance it could hit this level latter on during market hours.

Hit 14727 earlier almost bang on that 50% level.
remo wrote:

....and all the fib extensions, going right back to 1974, suggest you may well be correct.....

Marubozu candlestick pattern on the dow. This is quite a rare pattern on the dow.
This shows that the bears are in charge and bigger falls maybe about to come.
Go away in april and come back in october may be true this year
A good entry based on this pattern is if the price comes half way up the marubozu(50%) in this case to 14731 then short with stops above preferably.
Caution on new longs as this could be the signal for a top.

The dow still in a trading range from 14546 to 14383 so a 163 point range
So if this goes below 14383 today then this should test the breakout point.
Indicators are diverging now so possible top forming????? Its always hard to call a top on the dow as this can just keep motoring. I remember the same thing happening prior to the 2007 top.
so best to just take it one day at a time

Up above 14546
down below 14383

This is an hourly chart so as you can see the range more clearly

Well it's here again!



clip2net.com/s/4N4HMJ

And another H&S but the right way round!!

RMc

Can today's candle be classed as long legged doji?

Anyone remember this?




Well it could ........



RMc

The battle between the bulls and bears continues, but it dropped off at the end of the session suggesting the bears are gaining control. The 15 min RSI downtrend from the bearish divergence at 14538 came perfectly into play at about 18:30 and did its job nicely:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Dow15min18_03_13.gif

Still needs a close below 14411 to signal further downside or a close above 14538 for further upside IMHO.

The dows like this a lot. it can change directions pretty quickly. Its a dangerous index to trade hence why it should be respected.After hearing all the craziness over the weekend you would have thought this index might have taken a tumble..lol...Its best to trade this index from important levels and never try and second guess this daddy. It has burnt a lot of people in the past and still does to this day. Its a great index to trade if you show it some respect.

Dow starting to look like its going to finish up.

Unbelievable!!!

hmmmmm its really incredible how news catches up with technical analysis and the waves. WaveSurfer wrote:

Daily Candle on Dow

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/Dow%2015%20March.JPG

indeed - when you look at the DOW over the last 3 years there is an interesting time correlation & what appears to be consistency for medium term highs:

29 Apr 10 high - a correction followed ~16%
02 May 11 high - a correction followed ~20%
01 May 12 high - a correction followed ~10%

see chart & take note of march, april and may of 2012

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/Dow_3Years.JPG

in the short term, possibilities:

Int wave iii - march 13 highs
Int Wave iv - april 13 lows
int wave v - may 13 highs & completion of Major wave 3 of primary wave 3, what should be a Major 4 correction to follow.

on a side note - the Cyprus situation and the 10% levy is boarding on criminal imo, to think joe public savings in Cyprus banks will be less than what they were come Tuesday due to the bailout. makes me

I hadn't looked at the chart properly since close on Friday. You're right - a beauty of an inside bar.

Roll on Monday, the weather's finally warming up just in time to put the shorts on lol!

1. - wicks etc as per you below comment - dont matter, not that significant imo
2. 14 March candle long green body - check
3. 15march candle has short red body Check
4. 15march candle is is equal to previous day high - Check
5. inside price action - check

tentative conclusion until i get confirmation which is KEY is:
2 days in a row of equal highs signalling a resistance and formed at key pivots and fib clusters, along with a print of that type of candle formation. This could signal a short term top is forming.

Regards WS
WaveSurfer wrote:

Just as thought - you beauty !!!

cheers J

Here you go WS:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily16_03_13.gif

Updata's been playing up again this am so no chance to look in more detail and the missus won't be happy if I spend more time working now, especially if I want to watch the England v Wales game with a few cold ones later on!

BTW, the SPX daily has a smaller "head" than the Dow and long "tail" which penetrated its equivalent short term uptrend hence my Q re hanging man. Not a tweezer top though. Another thing, you may want to look at the last 3/4 daily FTSE candles and compare with the March 2012 top.

Better go...have a good weekend all (will try and look for more detail tomorrow if I get chance)

Can somebody with cash market charts, Updata etc, not futures, please post the daily chart up ?

i'm seeing some discrepancies on the candlestick would like too see what updata or any other cash chart print has on it.

daily displaying a tweezer top formation ?

in the meantime DOW 14465 is the big number, no break no lower. as for correction i'd think the first target would be to look at the breakout point of 14200/156, confirmation of a break & day close of that then we 'll look to lower targets as J has mentioned below.

thanks in advance.

Yep, I'd agree with that and have been short ftse" and Dow since the off today. Targeting the 38 fib from Nov lows but no lower than the wave 4 low of lesser degree so max lows of 6258 ftse, 13775 Dow and 1485 spx

According to UBS the DOW will reach a top of around 14540 before falling back 5-7% moving in to Q2. Can you believe the index was as low as 12500 only 5 months ago. Madness.

Interesting to see what happens next but the DOW has taught me a very valuable lesson about markets. I will post my experience later.

dows in a nice channel currently on the hourly chart.
Im long from friday and will close my long if the lower channel breaks.

Here's a thought, long term bears have been holding on the bearish w3 scenario, where's that leave em now

Surely the only sensible option now is to go long at 14198 witha stop below the 14149 high?

If there's a chance to do that, that is....

Here's a quick analysis of the Dow when it has taken out it's previous (all time) highs over the years...

on the chart you will see: est breakout targets based on previous range vs actual top price and the respective difference, hopefully the chart is self explanatory....

apart from what i have put on the chart, there are some other observations to be made with respect to the length of time it has taken the dow to get to it's previous highs and once it has, the results thereafter as an example....

dl.dropbox.com/u/40497882/dow_historical%20breakouts.JPG

just something to ponder

Oh well the short did not last long....let's see if the Dow can stay above the 14198 level today.
I'd be surprised if this moves far away from this area as like I said earlier the NFP comes out Friday and that can make a big difference.
Watching closely

remo wrote:
I'm thinking that the sidelines is the best place to be right now...

Still got some positions open, but I'm really not keen to add more...And as I type, more economic data to drive the Dow even higher towards 14250...

I can't watch so on my day off from work I'm taking the Mrs out shopping instead.

It will probably cost me a lot more than shorting the DOW though

I hate it when the dow edges close to an important number slowly. The risk are higher for a breakout.
I'm still gonna short at 14198 during market hours but there is serious risk attached to this due to the close proximity to the all important number. I'm hoping that the bears come out and play when this number gets hit
I'm only risking 40 points so not so bad .

As amo pointed out Fridays the day that the NFP comes out and this has the power to push through or break down fast. These numbers will determin the real direction of the American markets for the short term. Be very careful when trading during the NFP as stops can easily be taken out due to the massive volatility associated with this news. I've seen the Dow move up and down by over 100 points in the space of a few minutes due to dodgy numbers. One minute it was up a 100 then the next it was down by a hundred all before the market even opened. So be very careful on Friday particularly.

we have US NFP on Friday. Could decide who takes the crown. My money's on the bulls. Just seem's to be no stopping equities at the moment and looks like we need another scare for markets to fall.

But then again we've all seen what a difference a few days can make.

They've hit 14179 now.

Battle looks set for today. Bulls vs bears. Take your pick.

Dow futures up to 14150, could hit your short entry target 14198 tomorrow.

first a shooting star on the dow and now a possible hanging man...lol
days still young so the hanging man may change by close.
sell in may and come back in october may be a good thing this year as the 85billion spending cuts comes into force at midnight tonight i think and will last till October.
careful out there

Hi ammo
The signs are there for a reversal but you cant pre-empt it.
The rsi is diverging but also its trying to breakout of the short term RSI trend line .which could imply higher prices.
Today was obvious with regards to the volatility due to all the key people giving speeches. Also the US manufacturing data came in better than expected and the consumer sentiment was also good.
Im still gonna short on first attempt at 14198 with a 40 point stop during market hours only for today.

remo wrote:
Remo what do you make of the MACD and RSI negative divergence? Signs of a reversal or am I clutching at straws?

Remo you weren't wrong about the volatility today. It was more than 150 points lower an hour and a half ago.

im surprised no one mentioned the small shooting star yesterday on the dow???

In the meantime I genuinely expect it to respect the technicals, so see it going no higher than 14200.

Apparently today is just the start but no deals are expected to be done. Some more information here if anybody interested :

www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-news-blog/20...uts-qanda-highlights

Looks like the politics are going to continue for a while. I wonder how high the DOW will go in the mean time.

Remo - totally same wavelength.

Without a word of a lie, I currently have an order sitting to sell at 14195 with a 40 pip stop.
Traded it a couple of times on the 5m chart for some quick pips, but would love the 14195 order to be hit, even if it does get obliterated on good news, still a good trading set up imo.

Today may be a very volatile day.
Todays the day the 85 billion spending cuts come into force in America. President obama and congress are still in deadlock over this so if some thing happens with regard to this the market could fly or drop.

Ben Bernanke is also speaking in a conference today and he may say some thing that can move the markets.

Its funny how all this is happening when the dow is in striking distance of the all time high.

So be on your guards as if they agree a deal on the spending cuts which would make shorting very risky today.
Im still planning on going short at 14198 with a 40 point stop but will cancel that if they agree on a deal or if Ben says something that is bullish.

You also got Warren buffet delivering his annual communication to investors. A lot of people are waiting to read this.
also ISM report and US auto sales are out today.

so all in all a possible volatile day looming so be careful as some of the comments can have an effect on commodities and currency as well.

This looks like its gonna go a lot lower.
This had a bearish engulfing pattern last night so bears are in control.
This may back test the breakout point at 13858 so worth a short during market hours if it hits that level with a 40 point stop



dyor