if it goes back abv 274 area then up it goes, quick scalp playsWaveSurfer wrote:

hit the top of the channel and some more... also doji on 1 min and H&S, also inside bar 5 min.

dyor

DOW looking a bit toppy. Like it has for about 3 months!

When the Dow moves it sure can keep going. When this makes new highs it could keep going and shorting this is pretty much crazy.
Trying to second guess the top is really hard. I'm just waiting for a clear signal to trade the Dow . This index is good to trade as long as your patient
I love this index

updated....what a market

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_may14v1.JPG



WaveSurfer wrote:

Here that channel view again.... what the fork !

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_channel_may14.JPG

dow 1 min chart - spx hit 1635 - see further commentry on ftse thread....

Debt ceiling seems to have slipped under the rador. This article seems to suggest there may not be an impact until the autumn.

www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/09/...xpayer-national-debt

Here is the updated 4 hr chart, played out perfect - 1st cnh target hit and note how it respected the channels - holding it and breaking out of the median line and testing the upper mid channel of ~14100, i expect dow to pullback to retest break area ( grey lines / nr median line) and go on to re-test the recent high and go higher....

all imo - dyr

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Dow_06May_4hr.JPG

dow = 15100 approx .162ext of int i

1614/15 = approx dow 15000

spx 1614 key area break n close next stop upto 1625. if bust thorugh 25 then omg 1668 next up

1614 few fibbo's there.....

1 hour view... spot a few things...

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/dow_02%20may.JPG

These channels be important now....break up...then higher c in play, break down then lower c range in playWaveSurfer wrote:

tested the break out point and held on 1st touch ala inv h&S neckline / cup n handle rim, took it down close to the 50% lower fork ? will hold and break abv....60/65.....

nice bounce either way tho

This is producing a few doji.
For dow to go higher it must breakout above 14768 then look to take the high out soon after.Otherwise a risk of having a lower high.
Im looking to short this below a finish at 14665. This would suggest a move back down towards 14440 area.
So the levels to watch today are..
up above 14768
down below 14665



see how the trend line is now acting as resistance

I remember the drop on wall street when the twin towers were attacked. My US shares dropped a third very much of a reality. Took a year or so to recover their value.

Reports of explosions at the white house and Obama being injured...

That would definitely do it!

www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-23/dow-jo...ap-twitter-page.html

That drop was a bit crazy!!

The bulls are fighting back. The hammer gave an indication .


The hourly chart gave a 123 low signal earlier today.


Im planning on going short on a first attempt basis at 14762 with a 40 point stop only for today. you can see on the hourly chart the reason for this..Theres 2 levels of resistance converging, one from the trend line and the other from horizontal resistance. This is a day trade

J - as you mentioned the spx - path is getting clearer on indices and going to plan

A = 1597 - 1536 - complete
B = 1536 - ??? (in progress) .618 @ 1575
C = A @ 1574 - 1513 - to follow

all imho

good to see you back J - hope you had a nice break

B wave rally.

Some very interesting features have played out on the Dow daily chart (sorry, I've missed all the discussion so apologies if this has already been noted). Here's my daily chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/Dowdaily19_04_13.gif

As we can see, the price has dropped out of its uptrend from 31 Dec but the RSI has dropped out of its uptrend from the Nov low and backtested it perfectly. Is this a sign of things to come? We can also see that price formed a hammer on Friday at the first support (there is a bullish RSI div on the hourly too) so a bounce may be in the offing for now and that could provide remo's trendline backtest at c. 14655.

The Dow 1 minute P&F chart has an active target at 14655 which supports this view.

It gets even more interesting when we look at the S&P. Here's the daily chart on that:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/S%26P500daily19_04_13.gif

Here we see that price has already hit the trendline from the Nov low (also at the 23.6% Fib - note the RSI breakdown too) and that may have carried the Dow through to its Friday hammer. However, this has yet to backtest the Dec trendline.

Some good learning material on these indices at the moment.

CT79 wrote:

Ive already gone short during the day.
It is a 123 high breakout but i prefer them after a few days worth of candles .Which shows the low more clearly followed by the breakout. The one we have had is still good but i like the clear ones ,just a personal preference.
Some people may not see this one so clearly
True test of this down move comes if it can go past the 23.6 fib level(14317). Strong up trends tend to only correct to this level so one to watch.Since we have had a break of the short term trend line this should move away from this level if its a true break.
For the bulls to have a chance this needs to finish above 14650

so up above 14650....(a finish above this level would be bullish short term)
below this level this should go down.



If your not already in this then stand a side as you have missed the best trades already.
Wait for a clearer entry. Another good entry would be a back test of the trend line (14640).Obviously short there with a tight stop.

Working to plan so far and looking good, enjoying this education from Remo!!

Remo, I assume you adding to your short will be at the back test of the 123 breakout at around 14537?

Short term trendline break and 123 high? Where next I wonder

Rossymc wrote:
Hi ross
I learnt the hard way
Thanks mate for your kind words.
As long as you respect this index then its beatable.If you over trade this then its a painful lesson. Been there
Key to the dow is patience and wait for the perfect entry. Some times means weeks with out a trade.

Remo

After following your trades on the DOW for sometime i can honestly say that you are a class act in trading it.

Patience respect and strategy is a great recipe for the daddy.

Thanks for the lessons RMc

CT79 wrote:
Hi CT79
My first target was the trend line(short term) This already bounced today from there.If this can finish below that then it would open up lower prices.Id then look at 14383 followed by 14000.
Its a free bet for me now and i will look to add to the short if the trend line breaks.
The Marubozu played out perfectly on the dow. This pattern is one of my favorite candlestick patterns. They don't appear that often hence the importance.When ever i see this on the indexs i always trade them just like the way i said.Only thing with this pattern is a lot of people read it wrong.
As can be seen from my trade there was no hindsight involved
Please also remember that im a short term trader..

This bounced perfectly of the trend line

Hi Remo,

may I ask what targets you have for your trade?

Thanks
CT79

Free trade now

Potential 123 high on close

Amo wrote:
Hi amo
I'd class that as a 123 high.

Cheers Remo, If the DOW goes lower than Mondays low today would that be classed as a 123 high?

Amo wrote:

Sorry did not really responded to the question properly.
I'd look for bearish candlestick patterns and will look to confirm this by lower highs. 123 highs .
Until you get the lower highs it's risky calling the tops. Trend lines breaking is an added bonus but the trend line for the Dow is miles away.

Amo wrote:
Hi Amo
My main Reason to say that it could be a sign of a trend reversal is mainly due to the fact that between April and October the markets likes to correct. If you look back a few years of the Dow you can see it likes to correct between these months.
The dows had a good move and it does need a correction to go higher as well. Corrections are healthy.

SirRichardBunson wrote:


Hi srb
Yes it applies to all shares as well.

Hi Remo,

What would you look for to suggest there could be a change in trend rather than just a correction?

Thanks
Amo

P.S. Good call with the Marubozu

Hi Remo,

Just curious but after reading your Dow post this morning I could see that Afren was showing the same candlestick and sure enough it reached just above the target area and then fell so can I presume that the Marrowboozy play does apply to shares as well as the markets.

Cheers

SRB

Just goes to show how many traders are aware of that pattern
3 points out..There's still a chance it could hit this level latter on during market hours.

Hit 14727 earlier almost bang on that 50% level.
remo wrote:

....and all the fib extensions, going right back to 1974, suggest you may well be correct.....

Marubozu candlestick pattern on the dow. This is quite a rare pattern on the dow.
This shows that the bears are in charge and bigger falls maybe about to come.
Go away in april and come back in october may be true this year
A good entry based on this pattern is if the price comes half way up the marubozu(50%) in this case to 14731 then short with stops above preferably.
Caution on new longs as this could be the signal for a top.

The dow still in a trading range from 14546 to 14383 so a 163 point range
So if this goes below 14383 today then this should test the breakout point.
Indicators are diverging now so possible top forming????? Its always hard to call a top on the dow as this can just keep motoring. I remember the same thing happening prior to the 2007 top.
so best to just take it one day at a time

Up above 14546
down below 14383

This is an hourly chart so as you can see the range more clearly

Well it's here again!



clip2net.com/s/4N4HMJ

And another H&S but the right way round!!

RMc

Can today's candle be classed as long legged doji?

Anyone remember this?




Well it could ........



RMc

The battle between the bulls and bears continues, but it dropped off at the end of the session suggesting the bears are gaining control. The 15 min RSI downtrend from the bearish divergence at 14538 came perfectly into play at about 18:30 and did its job nicely:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/Dow15min18_03_13.gif

Still needs a close below 14411 to signal further downside or a close above 14538 for further upside IMHO.

The dows like this a lot. it can change directions pretty quickly. Its a dangerous index to trade hence why it should be respected.After hearing all the craziness over the weekend you would have thought this index might have taken a tumble..lol...Its best to trade this index from important levels and never try and second guess this daddy. It has burnt a lot of people in the past and still does to this day. Its a great index to trade if you show it some respect.

Dow starting to look like its going to finish up.

Unbelievable!!!

hmmmmm its really incredible how news catches up with technical analysis and the waves. WaveSurfer wrote: