I am really confused.
Remo said Dow could go down and I closed most tmy long positions, and now TF is saying it will go up?
I am not sure what I should do?
Buy my longs back ?
Please confirm Remo, TF

No idea about waves/elliot waves...so can't give my view here Ron....nice post and chart btw...

i do think technically the Dow's next stop is 35,000.
This is very much in bull mode.....so no shorting here....buy the dips imvho.

stay safe folks...

atb
trendfriend

Hi Paitech - np, I know it's not like the heydays although it does seem to have picked up on here this year which is good.

It's not a pattern I'd ever come across until this year but from the details on the link I posted it does seem to tie together. What i don't get is that what i've read suggests megaphones generally occur as wave 5 - which would fit that this has been wave 5 of move from 2008 but then they frequently breakout to the upside...which would tie in with world events if Biden is about to inject a ruck load of cash into the economy...but then if it's wave 5 and it breaks upwards, where is the ABC wave going to come from

Hi Ron,
I saw your entry yesterday, but am no expert... and our resident experts are not on here frequent....
Sorry...
Ta G

Hi all, looking for some advise/comments from those that know more about charting than myself (so everyone )

I've been looking at the weekly on the dow for a while and comparing it to the megaphone pattern, until yesterday I couldn't really get it to fit. Then yesterday I moved my start point forward from Feb 2018 to Mar 2018 and everything (seemed) to fall into place.

It appears we're approaching the end of the 5th swing. The swings seem to comply with fib extensions between 1.27 - 1.62 [1-3623,2-5513(1.52),3-8157(1.47),4-11367(1.39)] with the 5th swing needing to extend approx another 1000 points to fall into the bracket.




My question is do you think this is a valid application of the pattern (the chart is futures as I don't have access to daily with any chart software)?

If it is then it would suggest we are about to either breakout (target 40-42k, stop below 29.5k) or breakdown (short below 29.5K, target approx 23k) - either of which would be pretty lucrative trades!

Also interesting that RSI has complied with downtrend resistance for the duration of the pattern.

As i said - comments appreciated as can't tell if i'm barking up the wrong tree.

Cheers

DOW charts attached....
Its almost on the top of the channel from 2018.... will it breakout ... or go down....
also in rising wedge... attached weekly charts.. 31800 to watch?
experts please comment

ta
G

....I hadn’t noticed until looking at the monthly that the March bounce point came at the support line from the 2000 and 2007 highs.

I was looking at that trend line in the monthly the other day thinking similar....was also looking if there was a wave count which could fit with us being in a huge Enid g diagonal that started back in 2018

TF,

Why is my chart totally different from yours

I think if DOW doesnt break out from 31054, it can go down... on weekly and daily chart attached...

ta
G

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...6pemc2tb28bPlmqa4%3D

You know for sure we are currently in a strong bull market when we have a complete disconnect between the real world and the markets....and i know these markets look ahead....but seriously we have economies devastated and borrowing sky high!!

at the end of the day traders must respect the market to win.....and these markets are (for me) saying up, up and more up imvho....all of that QE....pump, pump and more pump!

35,500 > 40000+ targets for 2021....

I see no reason to short this imho....you can only short if you have a reason to do so....like a gap below the 50 day ema line or a lower low.....or weakness in the rsi...etc.

Currently i think its a case of "if you can't beat them.... then join them"
Buy the dips....no selling and shorting....imho

At some point it will all come crashing down...but when??

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

The Dow caught me off guard yesterday. I went in a bit too early and got stopped out.

After briefly breaking out. of the wedge to the downside it’s not done it to the upside.....wondering if the market is expecting more financial stimulus due to what look like they will be couple of horrid months covid wise in the US but going to be sitting on my hands for a while with the DOW as seem to have been wrong about every move the last couple of months!

So....firstly Happy new Year
The Dow gas continues. It is retesting various levels and looking at them price action does not want to go down.

Back to the basics the charts points towards and up trend- with loads of buying at the pull backs.

I thought 30000 was high now it seems to be heading towards 31k. Mental.

Retested the breakdown point around 30000, taken a small short, 200pt stop.

Rising wedge has broken down. RSI divergence for a while, could the top be in? Possible pull back to 25k area

I have so far used the 4 hour charts for direction. Yesterday the long term trend line I thought was broken. I am watching the price action closely but as indicated in the posts below I can see some negative divergences forming and lower highs and lower lows . Time to watch closely

Hi SE and all....

Yes this does have the negative RSI div hanging over it....unfortunately you cannot use one indicator in isolation....its got to combined with other bearish indicators or set ups....and i don't see them right now...

it did look like the market would come off again....with a lower ow in late Oct....but then the vaccine news plugged the rug from under the bears feet....

The markets currently have lots of headwinds....but in bull markets they just get brushed aside...

Can these markets tumble??.....yes
is there a big bubble and top building??......yes

Question is when?
this is just going to keep pumping imvho....someone i follow is suggesting 2023 for the next bear market/phase....

with only corrections along the way...

lets see...
atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend

Price action on Friday was interesting, doesn’t seem to break out past the 30200 mark just yet. Which may still support the wide horizontal trading range maybe. It seems to be range bound 29600-30200 with the ascending triangle.
I am still struggling to find a trend so sideways is the best I have at the moment .
Gold seems to be moving up again.
By the way I did a small short on Friday but got stopped out which told me to stop trading until the cloud clears up for now

Negative Divergence on the RSI? Many of the factories I work with in China are working flat out for sure - Although the supply chain has collapsed due to demand and they are literally running around with cash trying to secure components. Freight container prices are soaring due to the bottleneck on increased demand (£2k in October for 40ft container -currently £6.4k and forecast to be £10k in January!!!)- Dollar is weakening - All means inflation and higher prices on the way = strong headwinds? The parabolic rise in stocks is unlikely to end well IMHO

dow- daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...z1nveVImQxHksSQj/EQ=

i don't see any technical reason to be short on indices imvho.....
From a fundamental perspective it does seem logical that as covid gets beaten the markets will head higher....usually led by the US.

just my thoughts....as always wdik...

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

After i got stopped out yesterday on a blind sided trade, i had to revisit some old techniques and went back to Remo's classic lessons

Anyway, to cut to the story short, I looked at all the chart set ups and found the 4 hour chart that seems to be respecting the trend lines and and forming an ascending triangle pointing to 30k

Chart attached - with the markers of how i put my thoughts together (the grey box of where I thought was a value punt).

My short got closed out so no doubt the trend will be down now

..on a serious note whilst there are positive indicators on the charts news wise I don't see there is any good news left to come out, I also imagine the US is on the brink of a couple of pretty horrendous months covid wise. Logically this would drag the markets down but then when do the markets act logically!

I want to go short again but feel like i'm chasing and too freshly burnt to make decisions I trust so sitting on the sidelines for a bit.

Forgot to add my most important point - I am struggling to understand what the trend is ...

Some very interesting moves going on the Dow. It’s retesting support, and got to the 30k mark again today. So loads of testing at the moment . Whip saw to be honest!!

waverider2 wrote:
Great Charts (as usual) TrendFriend.

Waverider's view is why it's now even more (surely not!) important to be nimble or stay on the sidelines - where I'm gonna be for now.

After that Dow spike caught me out, I've gone back to trading Nasdaq, Russell, FTSE and S&P, just restore some account credibility.

The Dow I think, is going to be the index tracked in my SIPP and ISAs for the long term. Intraday trading it is like russian roulette!

Very interesting Trendfriend. There is a high possibility of break out and then you wonder where it will stop. The other thinking is that the big move recently could reverse to form the wide side way move. We will see

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...VpiO+QdkpTojYPyGiJU=

dax - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...4mNeT+KiENFT8PVdBag=

ftse - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...uG+KURipEUUu5T/Mxyk=

no stopping these markets.....standing in the way of bulls is dangerous.....
All 3 main indices showing bull flag consolidation.....and for the dow it looks like a higher high and breakout form the flag....could well be the start of the next leg up....
careful if your short....maybe time to hedge....
if your long enjoy the rally...

crazy markets imho.... but it is what it is...
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

Assume that's the pattern II was looking at the other day.

Pullback to fill the gap would seem likely, question is does it carry on or reverse from there and then breakout if the wedge is in play.

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...zlTYYLcaEJGWfQZpM%3D

Vaccine news could well be largely priced in these markets now.....this failed to make and hold above a higher high...
I think this broadening triangle is in play imvho.....

lets see...
atb, wdik,dyor,
trendfriend

Feels like a pump to test double top from recent sell off point...(also looks like batman....)

www.thestreet.com/investing/dow-futures-...ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

Who was it that used to post about Batman ears formations?!....we have one on the DOW, i was thinking about it at the end of last week thinking the charts were looking like one and then this morning has put in the start of the second spike!

I suspect the Big Boys are behind the recent selldown in DJIA.

In Feb 20, prior to the sharp fall due to the Covid-19 pandemic, DJIA was at a high of 29,566 points. On 9 Nov 20, it hit the same level but failed to close above it.

We see a small gap up as well so if the price action is reversing, then it is likely to close this gap. It could then stage a rebound from here OR tumbled down further to 26,000 level where it is supported previously.

There lies a possibility that it continues its bullish move and our next target is around 32,000 level. For that to happen, we must first witness bullish candles candles above 29,566 level. So, watch this level tonight.......

I"ve been watching the weekly candle, barring a massive rise tomorrow - pair it up with an island reversal over the weekend and things could be looking interesting.

dow - daily.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...PFmgNZjPOSPq3kjuo%3D

While Fundamentally things may be looking great for the markets.... with the Vaccine due soon and the huge rally to a new high...

Purely from a technical perspective i think warning bells are ringing imvho...

second lower low on the rsi....so negative divergence x2 on the both the last two peaks!
With US stock valuations sky high.....at the very least we should get some kind of p/b imho...quite possibly towards 26900....or maybe the low 26000's....

lets see...decent down day today...more to come i think.

atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

I spent about an hour trying to work out what wave we were in now and decided it was best to give up and leave it for a few days.

...couldn't decide if we're in wave 3 now (with Mar -Sept move being 1) or if this is an anding diagonal...in which case we're in 3 of 5 before a dump?!

Either way it put me off so I decided to leave it for the day and hope a nice drop overnight gave us an island reversal to start the day off tomorrow

Hello everyone....
How are you all today?
Seems very quiet today

dow - daily
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...dKAtzZXaRQe7A6qQVlk=

the news today clearly pulled the rug from under the bulls feet.....totally unexpected.

As things stand looking at the daily chart....huge gap up....28947 (the red line) is the closet support.
Will that level hold??....resistance now become support??

Huge negative rsi divergence currently and that was a very clear and strong rejection just shy of 30,000.
Bit of a dance around situation..as .this rally comes after lower low so wouldn't be a surprise if today's move turns out to be a bull trap...

i think this should go lower....but wdik.

lets see...
atb, wdik, dyor,
trendfriend

you've gotta laugh....

today's market action looked like a ploy to really screw participants over.

my position closed at a loss - and yet, by session's end - I'd be in the money.

Sometimes, it seems like stops are the enemy - but they aren't. it's the dishonest particpants

(no hard feelings to those that pull the levers obviously - you make a deal with the devil, you deserve what you get - back to work, and tomorrow brings another oppertunity!)

Be well and stay safe folks.

There’s a long road ahead still. We will find out on the third week of November then as we wait to see if the vaccine can be approved or not.

Syrian Empire wrote:
I agree - initial excitement is overcooked - the vaccine won't have huge impact this winter and the long term damage to businesses will be done in the meantime.

Trendfriend wrote:
you're right.

my take - Regardless of who won, who one likes (I like neither - I only like the folks at ChartsView! ) - I don't think the media - most of which are owned by Billionaires and trade on exchanges - should declare a binding winner.

elections should be called by the Electors and the courts (if it comes to that).

Al Gore - whom I like - took 33 days to concede; the path to being better human beings in my humble opinion starts with eliminating double standards / hypocrisy etc....

On this vaccine news - as it settles in own minds - you do start to wonder. I mean didn't Trump talk and talk and talk about a vaccine coming in November? didn't he say, after the elections, they'll stop the negative talk.... prophetic words at his expense!

Rooseverlt (the elder) did say, there are no accidents in politics, everything is pre-planned.

My pension is being spanked as virtually all in Gold funds so I might be biased - This has all the Hallmark's of sell on News pump and dump - The vaccine is still months away and central governments are still going to need to print money to fund the economic damage already factored in... Still hoping for a Gold inflationary fueled rally into 2021

Trendfriend wrote:
...a cynic might think they withheld the news on purpose

strange thing is if this news came out on Monday last week.....we may have quite possibly seen a different result in the US election??

Paitech wrote:
No worries man, it happens (all the time! ) - scalped my fair share, so this was IG's revenge!

onwards and upwards!
Trendfriend wrote:
Likewise buddy, it happens man. It's not easy to take - but hey, I wasn't complaining when I made coin off the brokers, so I'm slowly learning to take both sides of the trade and trying to retain some balance.

On reflection, I take a hit approx once every decade, in 2000-01 as a very young man, then, I took a hit in 2010-2011, and now, 2020 it's another hit. I hope we're all still here in a decade, so I'm counting on you to tell me to stay away from 2030!

I'm not here to "get rich" of the market, but I want to protect my assets, given that we (the 99%) are at the end of dminishing fiat and secret inflation.




Maybe I'll just hand my portfolio to WaveSurfer to manage!

small short at 30020.
stop 150.....

probably be stopped out in the next mins!

...WS's call about a close below 26500 and then a pump - 3500 points in a bit more than week - now thats a pump!

Really sorry to hear that Libero....
I couldn't believe my eyes seeing FTSE up 5%....
Stay safe....

DOW is on to open with a 1500 point gap