farmertim ,, what can I say ,,,really appreciate the time/thoughts that you have put into your response ,,, I cant thank you enough ,,,,

Daily log chart, horizontal and vertical counts correlating. From this perspective , the targets to 86 and 84 are active. If Lloyds finishes the day above 86.29, the active bearish targets will be removed.

In my view, there does not appear to be a lot in the way up to 114.



On the 1 min charts, 82.33 is the only active target left. There are no bearish targets active. 83.41 has been given but is not yet active, the price needs to break above 81.84 without passing below 81.03. As it stands I would expect some more intraday volatility in the share before it reaches the 86.29 level.



Looking at the RSI trend line, it looks like the trend is broken, it will be interesting to see how strong the share price responds.
on the side of chart is a volume histogram showing at which price the greatest activity happened. This can also represent the significant resistance level, if this breaks then I strongly reconsider the position before waiting to see if it breaks the low of the trading range at 70. The range, from a volume perspective appears to be greatest between 74 and 77.



Assuming the retrace from 86.87 to 70 was the retracement the 23.6% (from the very low of 21) the P&F targets would suggest the 61.8% extension of 112 is a feasible target.

(Very much opinion and assumption not advice)
Best wishes with the trade

ft

Thanks for that Diver, I reckon I'm going to put an order in for that area with some tight stops just in case they are targeting it, thanks again.

According to PRT there is a gap. July 31st close 68.23; Aug 1st open 71.95, low 71.24....


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Lloy...%20PLC%20%28-%29.png

Could someone please confirm whether Lloyds has a gap up on the 01/08/13. I have iii showing a low on the 1st of 68.75 so no gap and ADVFN has a low of only 71.26 so big gap.

Many thanks

Sorry Amo, I should have made it clear the deviation I spoke of should be on the RSI. More haste less speed eh:)

Many thanks Diver. Definitely plenty to think about.

screencast.com/t/cQ83xKsbr5

Hi Amo,

Sorry to be so long getting back to you. Believe it or not I've tried three times to write this and each time been interrupted in some way so I'll keep this short and get it posted....




I can only generalise as far as EWT is concerned as my data doesn't go far enough back in time but, if you take a look at the long-term view per the chart you can clearly see the present move is but a tiny part of what appears to be a flat originating back in 2009. The move up from the low at 21.637 could be anything in wave terms but, for it to be a motive wave, bear in mind there has to be a deviation between waves 3 and 5 otherwise it is not a motive wave. Whatever it turns out to be it is nested and complicated and, in all honesty, not worth analysis. Much more significant is the fact the SP is currently slap-bang in the middle of the target area of the previous swing depicted by the 50 - 61.8 fibs. A move above 57.2 and this will be looking at the next significant resistance area between 79 and 83.25; a move below and this once more looks to the depths.

But how do we know that the 5 waves we are discussing are part of the larger degree Wave 1 up? Is it because it started at an all time low share price?

Hi Amo,

Anything's possible!

At some point there will have been a full series of 5 waves up and, according to EWT, they will form a wave 1 up of larger degree. Clearly then we'd expect a wave 2 down which ought to be at least 50% (most common case).

We can't work out the retrace levels until we know where the top is. It's possible it will return to those levels I guess. Nothing goes up in a straight line!

Jackozy,

So you still think Mid 40's is a possibility based on EWT even if we see 55.63 breached?

Thanks
Amo

Hi SRB,

Again, it's impossible to know for sure. A 38.2% retrace is comon for a wave 4 but not a requirement. When really bullish we sometimes see 23.6% or even less.

If it does go on to new highs before getting to the mid-40s then I'd look to see if there's a bearish RSI divergence at a resistance on the daily chart.

Quite often there will be such a divergence between the highs of waves 3 and 5.

If you can get in on or near a wave 2 low the best thing is just to let the trade run with the trend until you get a sell signal such as the above. Even if you miss selling near the top, there will usually be a second chance to sell when the SP forms a lower high on the way down (either wave 2 up of A down, b up of A down or simply the top of B up).

Best to not try and be too clever and stick with the trend. I know from personal experience!

I'm quite new to EWT myself so struggling with that answer. Also not sure how accurate the following guidelines are but you could try making sense of wave 4 description to see how it matches with the chart. I personally think whether this is wave 4 or a sub wave 3 of wave 3 either way we will see this continue to rise.

www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

Charts aside sentiment seems high with Banks after Barc results and LLoyds are to follow end of the month. On the other hand maybe its starting to look a little too bullish. As Jackozy said, only time will tell.

Amo/Jackozy

Just following your thoughts on lloyds and would like to know, if we dont visit the 38% fib area of 43.8p in the coming days but instead we finish above the recent high of 55.63 does that mean wave 4 is over and now wave 5 is in play or bceause we did not have that full retracement were are still in wave 3.

Thanks in advance

Cheers for the post's guys. Lloyds end of year results are at the end of the month so this could have an impact on what happens next.

Hi Amo,

I think you've got the options covered there. There's no way to know for sure, but my money would be on this being a wave 4, possibly down to the 38.2% Fib of the wave 3 at c. 43.8p.

I've based that on having achieved the 161.8% extension of wave 1 up. I also think that what we think is wave 3 has a nice set of subwaves with an extended 5th subwave.

Only time will tell I'm afraid.

I'll have another look later on or tomorrow to see if I can see anything more definitive. Not at my best today due to a couple too many watching England beat Ireland yesterday!

I never done EWT..but the signal I do like is MR 50 day
regardless of fibs, waves, and everything else a close below trendline and 50 day would imply at least a 10% drop before risk/reward was good...I just commented on another share about the 50-55 braket and personally I'd bail on a close below 48 (3% trendline rule)

I'd really appreciate some thoughts on where you think this could go next. From reading up on EWT my understanding is that this wave could either by the start of a wave 4 or could be a sub wave before the rise to 261.8 Fib before we see a wave 5.

I have been using the following link as a basic guide and it seems to be meeting quite a lot of the criteria for 5 waves.

www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm




Any thoughts/opinions would be great.

To the EWT therapists

Could the recent retrace be the 4th wave of wave 3?

Wave 3 may have come to an end. Possible direction of Wave 4 based on the length and time of Wave 3?

Thoughts?

dl.dropbox.com/s/jeb5ivj4rd7umm3/Lloy%203.png

Broad Rock,

Yea, I have been taught that wave 2 can retrace anything between 50 and something like 78%, although it has been known to retrace further, as long as it doesn't retrace 100% obviously.

Wave 5 is often a similar length to wave 1 as well I have been advised.

Everything you state in your post fits in the EWT guidelines from what I have picked up.

The way i see it though, there are set rules within the theory obviously, but alot of them are just guidelines with flexibility - there is a heck of alot of subjectivity and scope.

As well as Jackozy et al - I have saw some great material on dailyfx website aswell

This has probably been posted before aswell:

dl.dropbox.com/u/63552262/Resources/Elli...Wave%20Principle.pdf

Not an expert view but;

This is what I see and how I would count the current waves, but there is a good chance this is wrong..

Weekly Chart.

dl.dropbox.com/u/43650856/Lloyds%20Weekl...-%20%209th%20Jan.htm

Wave 2 retraced over 76.4% which is ok I think.

Wave 3 has passed the 1.618 of wave 1 which is great for whoever bought it at 25-30p and is ok in wave terms too, I think.
It could go higher, (I would not sell it to trade wave 4), but if it did fall to 41-43 area I might buy the wave 5, depending on signals then..

I would like to hear others views on this also..

Ok after reading Jackozy's blog, using some simple yet taxing (for me) maths, some free charting software, downloading and registering for Dropbox and impatiently skipping through Remo's very helpful dropbox video this was the best I could manage for this evening.

It's the first chart I have ever posted online so be nice. I am not quite sure what to expect next though apart from maybe expecting a retrace to 40

I'm getting there slowly but surely.




Edit : It didn't work so the link will have to do for now.

www.dropbox.com/s/zfhnobc6yhpn4y4/Lloy.png

Edit 2 : Just some extra thoughts. 42 area as a possible wave 4? Would love the opinions of an expert on EWT as to whether any of this could be valid.

www.dropbox.com/s/75hcx20fimboikz/Lloy%202.png?m

Just back, apologies, typo with the 181.

Check Jackozy's blog, but 1.618 for wave 3 and for wave 4 (23.6% to 50% of wave 3)

Amo,

Very very quickly, just saw this, and having to jump out for football, but i think, think being the operative word, that we can expect, as a guideline not a rule, the 3rd wave to extend 181% (roughly) of the length of wave 1.

I also think wave 4 as a guide line retraces 31.8% of wave 3.

Thats from memory so could be totally wrong.

I see Lloyds still going strong. A question for the EWT experts out there. If we take the current wave up as wave 3 how long can we expect it to climb and also how long would we expect wave 4 to be based on EWT rules?

Thanks in advance.

Amo

Lloyds has broken out strong resistance and is coming back to re-test breakout point.