Livenow,

There are never any guarantees in trading other than - prices go up and down. All I can say is the extensions shown around the 123.60% are what you would expect to complete wave B.

Regarding the current moves, it has topped at 109 from the low at 82. It would be reasonable to expect 61.80% retrace, which works out at 92.314. We had a low of 92.12 today, so pretty good. There is nothing to stop the price moving lower but it should respect the low at 82.00 otherwise we are looking at further extensions lower. This is always possible but, personally I would be surprised given the multi-layers of targets hit at 82.00.

As for time - how long is a piece of string? I have no idea. The first waves will not be quick affairs as we are fighting the existing down-trend: many bears will still be wanting lower lows. Wave 2 will be at least a 50% retrace of wave 1, and could well be up to 85.40% because of this fight. Once wave 3 gets under way then watch out: it will fly. We are not great believers in fundamentals on this board but GKP being paid for the oil exports must surely have a marked effect on price I'm genuinely sorry I cannot be more specific but, such is trading in the big bad World.

thanks for your views diver.. Do you reckon 82p was the low of the wave B or can it go lower ? Considering that 96/7 is in danger of being breached to the downside today , does it mean another trip to test 82 or lower ? And this is there a rough timeframe for this turnaround from Wave B to Wave C ? weeks or months ?

by the way , you are correct about the main iii board. I can never forget the amount of insults hurled my way in 2012-2013 when i was saying that Todd & his cronies were not aligned with PIs interest. But even i am shocked by the extent of the damage they have done , all the while creaming salary & bonus.
I feel really sorry for the genuine PIs who are underwater due to believeing the constant ramping on the board. Though for some of the happy clappers on there , it couldnt have happened to a nicer bunch ..

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...2811april2014%29.png

GKP is in an ABC. The A was from the initial release to the high of 450.00. The B has recently completed down to 82.00. We are now in the C wave which is targeted to the area between 527 > 632, this cannot be seen on the chart as there is no room but, if you run a fibonacci extension from a low of around 9p up to 450.00, then down to the low at 82.00 you will get the picture

Wave B was extremely complex, particularly the lesser wave C, which ran from the high at 259 on Sept 19 2012, to the recent low at 82.00 on, appropriately, April 1st 2014. In turn this had a minor A wave terminating at 126.38 on May 8th 2013, and a B wave terminating at 240.00 Sept 10th 2013. The minor C wave ran from the high at 240 down to the recent low at 82.00, and in turn had lesser A, B, and C waves terminating in a zigzag from 191.25 on Jan 13 2013. This zigzag was fully supported with divergences in the RSI for both integral waves 3's.

The change of direction from the B to C waves will obviously be a struggle: it always is. The first hurdle to clear is the resistance at 126.38, which should be completed with an extension of the current move from the recent low up to the high at 109.00 from yesterdays low at 96.00. This projects a 100% extension to 123.00 > 123.60% at 129.37 - so it is in view now.

This share has severely tested the patience of many loyal shareholders who, unfortunately, know very little about either technical analysis, the oil industry, nor the tribal middle east yet inhabit the iii website and throw insults and verbal abuse at one another like petulant children. Thank God for Chartsview!

Excuse the labeling, some of which is incomplete. I am trying to adopted a colour scheme whereby the lesser waves are labeled in a lighter shade of blue with the major waves in black. I have left the fibonacci extensions on the chart to indicate the completion of wave (( B )), the green one running from the high at 259.00, and the blue one from the high at 240.00; both of which have the low of 82.00 firmly in the respective target areas around 123.60% of the extensions. Also the red one, which is a bit cramped, but shows the target of 126.38 in the target area between the 100% > 123.60%.

In my opinion this is the definitive wave analysis for this company but I accept others will have differing views so please do your own research. I sincerely hope those who look at this analysis in some detail will learn from the experience and realise the complexities that can and do exist within what Elliot Wave International describe as a simply ABC. These are usually complex little beasties and very seldom form in three simple waves.

I don't know if anyone ever followed Notever on the old iii CV site but he used to have the "batman" theory. If anyone recalls it and uses it in practice I'd be interested to know what you make of the GKP chart and if Notever himself is around it would be good to hear your thoughts.

Hi Count,

IMHO Deutsche Bank's stabilisation will have no affect on the TA as it's being done in between two short term key levels - ie 108p and 97p. It's basically range trading on a short term basis which happens all the time.

This needs to break 108p for further highs or 96/7p for lower lows in the short term.

IMHO there is no clear higher low on the daily chart yet so we can't confirm that an initial high has been put in at 108p.

Just my view.

I am unsure whether the SP stabilisation by Deutsche Bank will interfere with chart data and should be ignored until it is confirmed that DB is no longer artificially controlling price range. What do you advise Remo, Steve?

Hi all,
do you think we reached 1 of 123 low at 108.96 yesterday, now heading down to 2?

thanks

not-just-anytradr,

Over the years there have been many posts on the iii Charts View PBB that advocated that something very positive would be announced very soon.
Remo's view was that if your information was correct it was great but if it was wrong he would boot the culprit out temporarily or maybe permanently.
I am long on GKP so I "hope" you might be correct.
But looking at the SP and the charts one would have to seriously question the honesty of your post.
This is a private website.
I think you have to give more details or withdraw.

Looking at this link there is already an agreement to export up to 100,000 bopd.

www.krg.org/a/d.aspx?l=12&a=51222

They are waiting for repairs. The real question is "When will GKP start to receive regular payments?"

98.50p tells me it will not be soon hence the Bond offering.
Apologies if my post seems a little hard but its important that all posts have some kind of credibility.

Good luck with GKP. Once they start to get paid for the oil it will move up for sure.

If you knew how often this has gone back and forth with agreements about to be made.... and then repudiated...they will be and who knows maybe tomorrow.... but not holding breathe. But nothing will simply trigger independence. Its a major step which the KRG are not financed for and would be against current US policy.

Do you have a chart to back that up?

apparently a break of a 2003 agreement will trigger independence straightaway but not sure will find out more 2mro .maybe others know more

F.A.O all
guys i am not ramping or saying for sure, but spoke with a few people not on the ground as such but deal done regarding kurdi exports. and if not no way but independence for sure next .
info from ex peshmergz.
p.s current iraqi regime nothing v sadaam.
DO NOT BUY ON THIS NOTE .
HOPING FOR HIGHER LEVEL INFO TOMMOROW - NOT CROSSING FNGERS THO AND AM NOT ADDING OR SELLING.
but 100% wot i heard.

Holy jesus !!! Funding for $250M raised atCENSOREDpoor 13% with 40M warrants and $10M cost of arranging the funding !! It is wonga loans..

Todd, EA & JG are beyond incompetent .... downright useless. Seriously these guys need to be fired ASAP.. Saddled with 500M Debt , GKP is a dead story unless KRG start paying GKP pronto.. or M&G4 get the assets sold well in time before the Debt investor come knocking on the doors ..

cant wait to get rid of my GKP shares as soon as the holding period from my prev purchase finishes..

looks promising.....

1hr

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Gul...DFB%291hr_8april.png



daily

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/Gul...%28DFB%2908April.png




rgds WS

Hi woody
go to the "learn to trade" tab at top of webpage.
Ive done a lot of useful article in there ..Look at the 123 low setup example I have in there.
Also the live chat is very popular, a lot of members hang out there so good place to learn.
hope that helps
remo

Hey remo

Thanks for the info... I'm definitely waiting for the 123 low this time. The great posts I have read in my short time here have convinced me of that (and several painful attempts at trading against the trend and trying to catch falling knives!). TA all the way for me now, sticking to the rules... just need to learn them!

I have an idea what I'm looking for with a 123 low trade (thanks for the TCY chart and heads up Jackozy... was a nice little trade!), but obviously need all the help I can get at this stage! Only been here for a few days, but seems like a really nice, friendly and helpful community. Can't say I'm not daunted by the vast amount of TA things there are to learn, but am just reading posts, looking at charts and trying to understand what's going on each day (bit of a backwards way of learning I suppose).

Hopefully I'll be able to give a little back soon!

Cheers
Woody

Hi woody
currently no buy signals for gkp. This is still in a down trend.
Im waiting for a 123 low to form to give the green light to go long. Once i see it i will post the level on here. Even then i still will have a stop in place . The risk should be minimal .
So currently the share price is still weak and nothing of interest really. Its not even indecision as you would get a lot of doji candles,so currently the bears are still in control.
once i spot any green shoots ill post on here
xWoody wrote:

Hey guys

To a novice like me, it appears that we have just been bouncing between the 92p support and the 97p resistance for the last few days, in apparent indecision about which way to go. Is this all that's actually happening or are there some other signs or indicators that would suggest there has been a more subtle power shift in the bull/bear battle at this point? Is there a technical term for what we are seeing at the moment or is it just plain and simple 'indecision'?

I ask because I have often heard terms like dispersion, consolidation, etc chucked around and am just trying to analyse and understand everything I see...

Cheers
Woody

Count wrote:
Hi Count,

As yet there is no confirmation that the bottom is in so any trades from this level still need to be treated with a great deal of caution imho.

Wavesurfer has a great skill in reading the markets, one that I'm still trying to learn. That means he can not only see when to buy but also when to sell and how to protect his position. At this stage, not only should any buys be treated with the above caution, but there is little to fear from this share running away as there is so much resistance ahead. Not only has a higher low not yet formed there hasn't even been an initial high not to mention a 123-low breakout.

Don't worry, when the time looks right I'm sure it'll get some coverage on here!

Thought i'd share following on from my previous post today on piercing line reversal...

funnily enough i just traded a piercing line reversal but on a 15min timeframe on the Dow - you can see the similarities (candle) to chart in my last post....

the exception that gkp came off a daily timeframe and in theory should be more powerful (not seeing that at the mo)& the candle on the dow took out 50%= of the previous bar and continued pressure to upside......






rgds WS

Hi Steve,
Did you buy yesterday like WaveSurfer did, not waiting for 123 low confirmation?
Interesting that it managed to close today (just)above yesterdays high.

Yes, working fine now. ')

work fine for me? Just click on the link.....no problem.

Thanks for useful summary, your chart files not opening WaveSurfer

Hello all Chart viewers....

lots of discussion on this share on here and via the live chat facility.... i put my thoughts on chat yesterday on why i bought at 83p 1st thing on Tuesday morning (scalp for now) so i'll replicate here...

1. all larger time frames are extremely rsi oversold readings, monthly and weekly esp - see charts
2. Monthly confirmed downtrend.
3. + div appearing, needs confirmation to kick in.
4. The daily candle (closing Marubozu) on Monday 31st March at - suggested exhaustive final thrust type move into support level, this was confirmed by the next day opening - a gap down... text book stuff, ending the day with a piercing reversal candle, eating into ~50%+ of the previous red bar on 31st march and closing just a tad under the 50% @ 91.75, 92 is 50%...
5. target area of around 82/83p on the H&S break.
6. it been really hammered of late
7. based on all the abv - i made the decision, after all initial target of this move was 87p and we got an exhuative type candle , a gap down and close back abv it yesterday....

whats next ?

needs more volume coming, buying pressure to fill that Mondays candle on day 3 (today)

short term needs to close abv 97 and take out 102 for strength to come in, stay abv 88/92p on any pullbacks ( today it cant really look back and close abv yesterdays high is fine but ideally no more than that, the higher the better)to confirm a possible reversal underway. this share still has lots of work to do and lots of resistances coming up.

need to break abv 97 for high prices, no break no higher...

Daily

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_Daily_02Apr14.JPG





weekly - in progress - note the rsi 0/S - since this share has been in trading.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40497882/GKP_weekly_02Apr14.JPG





all the Best,

WS

regarding the 123 low...just look on our website as the way others do it is slightly different.
I use candlesticks for it. And 123 low is the my main signal i use to determine potential lows.
yes 87 has still held this up as support but that area has been weakened a lot now. Since the price had gone lower than that level i would not go long from there for the short term. There still is no buy signal on gkp. Wait for a 123 low signal to pop up. I will post it on here when it does

chartsview.co.uk/learning/123-Low.html



manfrombrussels wrote:

Hi Manfrombrussels

Please see the learn to trade section there is some interesting stuff there!

Jackozy - thanks, I'm googling 123-low as we speak.

Remo - interesting post, so as we stand right now, we could say that the 87p support held up. I know tomorrow is another day.

when the price close below the support on a closing basis...Also i would like to see the price stay below for a few days at least. preferably over a week...
manfrombrussels wrote:

bono do you know if the HNW investors are as miffed as PIs ? hope the EGM is being organised to vote off the incompetent trio of TK, JG, EA.

this looks like a dead share for some time now.. and a T/O if it happens will be at a knock down price of somewhere between 150-200p. but looking at it today, even that seems difficult.. So much has the company been run to ground by the bungling buffoons..

A TA post from the prophets if doom (Shareprophets) that clears the way to that gap at 52p -

Gulf Keystone: Unless positive news emerges, the stock is doomed
BY THIERRY LADUGUIE — MONDAY 31 MARCH 2014

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.



Looking at the long term (weekly) chart for Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) and it is clear this stock is in some trouble. The breakout below 144p has very negative consequences in the long term. The long term support line (blue dotted line on my chart) was broken on 13th March. This line can be seen as the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern [S1,H,S2] which is a bearish pattern.

It’s bearish because the neckline is broken, the stock should continue to decline until it gets to the next support area near 50p. This target is calculated by projecting the percentage decline from the top to the neckline. I am projecting a 75% decline from the moment the neckline was broken, at the time the price was trading at 144p. In theory the stock could fall to 36p, a fair target in the long term is 50p.

I believe that this decline will materialise in the long term but in the short term there is a risk the stock will bounce back to the 125p area. Why? Because on the weekly chart the stock is at the bottom of a regression trend channel, which is a support area. After the sharp move down seen in March the stock has become oversold and the lower line of the channel is acting as support.

Let’s take a look at the daily chart:



The oversold condition is identified by the blue line of the Directional Movement index at the bottom of the daily chart. The stock is oversold when the blue line falls below 10. Right now the line is below 10 and, looking back at past patterns, drops below 10 have generally been followed by counter trend rallies, so there is potential for a bounce in the short term.

However, trading this bounce is not recommended.

I have seen many example of stocks in trouble and in this situation the decline can continue while the stock remains oversold. We must remember that the trend is down here, the stock may or may not bounce, but if it bounces the most likely target is 120p. The strategy here is to use the bounce to short more. If the trend has turned down as I believe, the decline will be in five waves [1,2,3,4,5]. Assuming the lowest level so far is the bottom of wave 3, the oncoming bounce to 120p will be wave 4 and the decline to 50p will be wave 5.

- See more at: www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/4732/g...sthash.X5l4KdFT.dpuf

"Buying the dips ..... reasonable plan?"

During an uptrend, yes. During a downtrend that's a certain route to financial ruin unless you stick only to main support levels and then have strict money management (ie get out at resistance if it bounces and/or move stops to break even asap).

Best to wait for a bottom to form and then trade the breakout on a 123-low basis.

Thanks Jackozy, I didn't know if we would declare support broken, or just use a thicker line on the chart and say it supported! hehe

I went long at 88 with a 10 point stop, in theory the stop should be tight, but it's with a spread bet co and I know the fluctations are exaggerated, so its tight'ish.

I would be ready to do the same at 64-67p

Buying the dips ..... reasonable plan?

Bit of a grey area MfB, but generally speaking the most important price of the day is the closing one.

The fact that this has returned to, and gone below on an intraday basis (twice now), 87p is not a good sign IMHO. There are no buy signals on this stock that I can see so I would not buy this until the 64/7p area now and even then I'd have pretty tight stops.

Hi Guys, First post here however been a sniper for quite some time.

Jacko, Looks like the largest red candle seen since the drop from 360. Remo was right to point out NOT to go long should we get to 87p again surprised how easy it dropped through it though. What's peeps views of 64 holding or is it more realistic that the gap close by at 52.75 will be the obvious target?

Also, thanks to demo and ronnie for some premium tips, My RBS and IMG are doing ok. Now looking to take profit Mmmmm?

nerone
aka mrg

This may sound like a silly question, when do you declare support broken?

Say 87p, is it the minute the price falls below that point? is it when it closes a day below that point? It's around 84.5p right now, if it rose from here back to 90p today and closed at 91p, would you still say 87p was broken, or would it be a test of the support and found to be supported?

Also, please bear in mind that these supports that have failed are now resistances so barring a major news event (T/O) there are some strong ceilings above the current sp, most notably the 141p area which has been pivotal throughout and was also the area of the high volume gap down recently.

Here's a rarely posted monthly view of GKP:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...Pmonthly31_03_14.png

See the power of a main uptrend support break?

87p has failed to hold so we're looking at the 64p area as next up support. Failing that there's a gap at 52.75p and another at 13p though this last one was more than likely a game-changing breakaway gap from the initial discovery.

IIRC, early on on the halcyon days of GKP Mr Kozel said it would be important to manage PI expectations with respect to share price performance. I'm not sure this is what he had in mind...

I sold GKP 50% at 120p when the RNS on 13 March, the bare confess "Update" the reserve figure and other import aspects. I sold another 50% at 111p on 19 March, RNS about a debt bond offering. I felt totally loss and sad. But I sold them all. Today sp = 86p close. If I sold today I would have another 25% loss.

I remember AST downtrend. I sold at 5p, but now it is less than 1p. I sold RRL at 5p, now it is less that 1p, 0.73p. sp of companies of Oil exploration and developing as production are vy like going down in such terrible down turn way. GKP sp kept for quite long time above 160p due to the speculation of potential TO or the myth element of TO. Now it seems to me unlikely. I know if I don't sell, 120p, 110p would not available anymore.

However, I still have no bottle to short it. sp = 87p or below sounds incredible low. Whether it goes down more? May be, but I have not bottle to put money on bet.

Hello Jacko, hope you are well.. looks like higher low didnt get put in few days back. is your read still 87p as a low and then uptrend ? or is it going much lower - 50p area ? thanks a lot.

GKP has been shambolic. what a value destruction over last 3 years. Almost criminal fraud and negligence i would say to have withheld the SH6 results ..

Hi Eddie,
Glad to see you found your way here too.
Could be interesting week ahead. Suspect some usual end of tax year turbulence due to bed + Isa'ing end of week beginning of next week. Maybe possible RNS announcing debt financing news? (could be good or bad for SP depending on the % terms arranged). I've sold a few in my investment account and placed a few buy orders at lower SP just above resistance levels in case it drops further during this week, but I'll be monitoring the action when I can just in case of positive news ready to jump back in.

I am another refugee from Jackozy's board. Know very little at all about TA but was picking up a bit from my underwater GKP cave the past few months. I always enjoyed and appreciated the civilized tone there which seems to be here too. So hope to divorce myself from the emotions and learn from you all.

Welcome all to ChartsView, we are privileged to have all of you on our site including the fabulous skipper...lol

Hope you find the site useful and it helps you in your trading!

Any problems or questions please feel to post on the forum or you can send me a private message or email me.

We are always happy to help.

Here's hoping we all have a profitable 2014!

oh yes and don't forget the fabulous guy skipper--witty--well informed---top guy a privilege to have him on the site

Just like to welcome you guys to chartsview
We are a friendly bunch in here and a nice little community. We dont bother advertisng too much so well done for stumbling across our hidden website..lol....actually a big thank you to jackozy for intrudcing a few.
Most of the day traders hang out in the live chat rooms. This is accessed via the bottom of the screen. You should see a bubble , click on it. then join the chat room(this is a premium bit to the website)
every thing else is free to access apart from the share tips section

If you want to learn a load of stuff then best take a look at our learning section.This is called Learn to trade. Some useful stuff in there .Look at the top of the site
anyway
welcome to chartsview
remo

Hi Earl glad you made it. Just arrived here myself yesterday after Steve announced he was discontinuing his FTSECharts site, so we are in the same boat. Didn't realise you were 'no quarter' on iii (but I won't hold that against you ')).
I am really concerned about GKP atm, things are looking bleak now to me, we need some positive news to turn things around such as ICG/KRG budget including oil export agreement, some good debt financing news from this current round would help too.
Stricter investment discipline on my part is needed, the support and resistance data is all out there it's just learning patience and emotional detachment that is my problem, having humungous losses doesn't help me with the emotional detachment bit ')
Anyway good luck and let's learn from the guys (and girls) here like remo, Steve, diver, wavesurfer and ronnie.

Just to say hello to you folks here.

I'm a semi-retired middle-aged muppet who 2 years ago had too much spare time, a little spare money, dreams of easy riches and an appetite for the excitement of a little risk.

Having seen a chap posting on a sports car forum that he'd bought GKP and doubled his money (late 2011 IIRC), I stumbled like a lamb to the slaughter into the turbulent world of AIM. All the mistakes in the book? You bet! Bought in to GKP, XEL and BLVN all on the up (or so I thought...). Looking back I've been a complete pr!ck.... NO research and NO idea what I was doing/getting into. 'Averaging down'? Oh yeah: done a lot of that! So here I am with a few tens of thousands 80% in GKP (220 average...) and 20% in XEL (112 average). Needless to say over 50% down overall.

I've always been (and still am) on the iii BBs as 'No Quarter' - a nickname a few here might recognise. I've always has a mild curiosity about TA , having noticed Jackozy's posts being uncannily accurate, and also read with great interest STMs posts as well as BMU's. Always watch out for pj66's views too.

So here I am under no illusions whatsoever that I've made a hash of this. I'm also under no illusions that TA will take some getting to grips with. But in addition to being a bit of a naive over-boisterous puppy at times, I am when I choose to be highly analytical and ruddy determined. Being PhD-educated helps as research is a breeze to/for me ( OK, OK, so why didn't you do some 2 years ago I hear you chortle!).

I've taken a look through some posts here this evening and am excited to have made the move over here to GET LEARNING. I'm certainly not expecting this to be in any way an easy route out of the abyss/ panacea for all of my investing problems, but I would like to cautiously embark on something of a modest damage limitation exercise if I can.

So thanks to all here for sharing their expertise and I look forward to engaging with you as and when I'm able to contribute a little something. I'll save any emotive blather for iii!!

Best regards to all,

EGH

Hi Diver,
Many thanks for replying. As 96p had held twice in last few days that's why I asked the question whether it should now be regarded as a support level. I understand the good advice though and that it cannot be relied upon as support. 86p being a stronger support level and failing that 64.
Great site here, wish I'd been aware of it before ')

Mine the Money,

Here is my GKP chart.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7238706/Gulf...Ltd%20%28view%29.png

Levels of support/resistance fall at significant turning points in that the market turned around and went the other way. They are marked on this chart in bold orange. You need to look for instances that get repeated, and the more times they are repeated the stronger the support/resistance. Try and make it at least three times.

In my opinion searching for 'minor support levels' is trying to find an excuse for making the trade and getting it wrong. I don't mean this in an offensive manner, we've all done it, me more times than most, but the sooner you learn from the mistake and move on the sooner you will make profits. Don't be afraid to post here and get advice: there are many can and will help. I look forward to you making a contribution to the BB.

Hi Remo,
Just came aboard to look around your site (from Steve Jackozy's FTSECharts), looks great here.
Just one question about your GKP supports, can 96.2 be regarded as a minor support level?

Thanks