This looks very much like a bear flag imo, target would be 150p area, on a breakdown.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...symbol=DJI%5EI%5CDJI

Regards,
Trendfriend.

I'm long on this on the triangle breakout.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...WQ%3D&symbol=L%5EKAZ

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Long @ 301p, which is close enough to target entry point.
A perfect bounce so far of the trendline.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...1I%3D&symbol=L%5EKAZ

Taking another look at this.

This should bounce of the trendline @300p, which is where i will be going long.
You also have support below @297.

If it falls below 297p. this could fall to 272p, if this happens i will double my position @272p.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...A3EE=&symbol=L%5EASC

Regards,
Trendfriend

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Uo%3D&symbol=L%5EKAZ

This is in a nice up channel and right at support ATM, at the bottom of the channel.

I think this will break below, and present a nice opportunity for a long position.
Looking at 272p and then i will add more at 252p(200 day ema).

This can shift both ways quickly, so one to keep a eye on.

Regards,
Trendfriend.

Supports and resistances:
310.75
303
295.5
287.75
271.8
260.25
255.5
243
235.5
This still looks good to me. Lets remember this is in a uptrend now, however it Kazakhmys, and can be very volatile, with big movements in both directions. So stops are important.
I'm still holding some for a bit longer here. I think it will continue higher.

Regards,
Trendfriend.

As far as I can tell, there's not a lot of resistance between here and 320p... have I missed something?



https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/102203695/Screenshots/Screenshot3.jpg

I am going to babble to myself a bit here, instead of actually talking to myself which is getting strange looks in my office.

I am unsure on where this might go, main resistance at 271 and that may have turned into support today, but too early to tell. Possible resistance at 281 but not much resistance after that for a while.

Stops should be pushed up close to 271 ( I always leave 3/4 points as I use IG).

But tempted to take the profit so far as that above stop would be 8 points lower than here, and wait to see if 281 gets broken, then ride from there. Could also set an order for 271 to see if it gets tested again, with tight stop.

Holy smoke am I learning some patience?

A couple of resistance points at 271 & 281 ish, I guess it's at the first of those right now.

So push stops nearer resistance in case it can't get through?

Trades like this is why I wanted to get into charting, I fancy the fundies (sssh) on this one, but trading via TA, hopefully a winning combination.

Interesting

Looks like a lot of resistance on the book at 264/5p (obviously taking the book with a bucket of salt)... going to wait for that to clear before looking to take a position.

Also not getting a particularly bullish vibe off of the move upwards either... seems a bit hesitant.

Of course, that's probably all a lot of mumbo-jumbo from a TA perspective!

Yes TF,
Through to 263.4/5 now, being driven almost entirely by AT's. I'm tempted to for a small punt on this now but I'm always a bit suspicious of AT driven rises. Just going to watch it a little bit longer before diving in.

This looks like it could break out of the 123 Low formation.
Right on resistance now at 2.63

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...pZmI%3D&symbol=L^KAZ

I like to be different and awkward

Seems to be significant resistance in 260-263 level, it will be tough to break through this resistance.

yes sorry guys,
just my numbering is confusing. I was trying to adopt remo's system (see learn to trade section for diagram of 123 low) where the high of the move is assigned 1. Then subsequent low of move 2, but I was then using 3 as target label. Target is same though ~ 284 ')
lets hope it gets there

ps I blame everything on remo

my way of writing the 123 is different from others...but it still means the same thing

Count you have your 123 low wrong way round
1 is 225
2 is 263 and
3 is 241

there also a horizontal line of resistance (or a HS neckline) in play

A close above 263 and we should be looking at 20-25 points move north!

very confusing....why does 3 point = 284.7
3 point is the breakout point which is 263.2 which is the high of 1...
do you mean target??

Count wrote:

Where do you get the 284.7 from Count?

Hi guys,
If this breaks 263.2 doesn't it activate a 123 low with target of c284.7?

where 1=263.2, 2=241.7 3=284.7

thanks

I've gone long on the breakout here.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Snag%3D&symbol=L^KAZ

This looks quite positive.
It has broken above a long term down trendline.

The RSI is also well positoned.
A chart link
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...CM%3D&symbol=L%5EKAZ

A close up of the break.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...ytJI=&symbol=L%5EKAZ

Regs,
Trendfriend

Hi Remo,

I am back for a short time maybe.
KAZ looks to be testing/breaching support at 246.25p and might close the Gap and find stronger support at 233p.
Good to see a lot of old names still post here.
Could be a very interesting Summer.
Good luck with your trading.

Good to see you are back
Most of the traders in here hang out at the live chat rooms. But the forums are still the place where i generally post when i get the chance.
how is every thing...???
Elena Saratov wrote:

Anyone in KAZ? I bought this down from 311 and loaded up below 200p.

I would be interested in other views.

I am trading and keeping a core holding.
The company cancelled 77 million shares sold over $2BN of assets and local currency was devalued 25% against dollar. Government ordered wage rise of 10% gave a bit back.

I am enjoying better luck as I am much more disciplined about entry points and taking profits.

Good to see Charts View is still alive.

Well done Remo

The way it has finished so close to that trendline, i would be very carefull with shorting this ATM.

This share is tends to make big moves in bith directions.

I originally planned to sell at this trendline, i think it may break above now, so i now plan to hold to see how we go, but you never know especially with Kaz!

It seems to big boys have got the green light for this now, volumes certainly suggest this, check out JP Morgans targets in this Bloomberg Article.
www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-27/kazakh...de-copper-mines.html

Good luck folks, and good weekend as well.
Regs Trendfriend.

Possible short. 2 large gaps over the last couple of weeks. Daily and monthly charts below.
336.6 on the Daily and 366 on monthly today (last day of month and then drops to 330). Big ascending triangle however I have no idea which way that is meant to go as not sure on what the previous trend would be.

For disclosure - I did buy at 173 & 176 (based on the test of the old 2008/9 support and exited yesterday at 294 & 284. Stoked with that, but just thought the short now is the trade.

closed half of my position @236
rest is a free trade to run with SL moved to above break even

This is looking good today, its made a higher high.

uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...p8%3D&symbol=L%5EKAZ

Have a nice weekend folks.
ATB,

trendfriend

Great call Red Chilly. Very impressive.

Weekly chart of Kaz link below.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...8I%3D&symbol=L%5EKAZ

Libero, i was thinking of taking at least some profits here, but i've got a feeling this could at least test the main down trendline. So i'am going to hold tight for now.

Good luck and have a good week folks.
Regs,
Trendfriend.

Damn it! I thought all three got filled!

I was singing your praises in the chat-room earlier! I was thinking of inviting myself to your Yacht party on the back of your KAZ trade!

Terrific call none-the-less RC.

I'm thinking of winding down some positions (in KAZ and other commodity plays - and gold!), to bank some cash; will let the rest run as I believe that EM devaluation in commodity exporting nations will help and this will show in the charts soon enough.

Gutted only one order got filled yesterday @ 179.5!!

I have 3 orders to open for monday morning for a long position @ 179.5, 180.5 and 181.5

SL for all of them is below 172.5

If order gets filled - entry will be based on 4H chart


higher time frame - daily

GGOK,

I use ProRealTime (EOD) for P&F charting. It is free and seems to work pretty well.

cheers,

SB.

Hi remo
Point and figure is a good idea.
I looked for freebie on web, but can't find one! So definitely help if anyone still uses updata and can show us targets. They use to do great P and F charts.

We need some sort of basing pattern around this 170 mark. I am surprised there are any sellers left!

Trouble is I think the market is in primary wave 4 down and primary 3 has ended. So if that is the case, then shares across the board are vulnerable for more set backs for a few weeks. Waiting for 15704 to be taken out to confirm primary 4.

Thanks.
G

Trendfriend,

Never use the divergence on an RSI to indicate a change of trend because that is not the way to use it. You should use the RSI to identify sequences of swings. For this it is invaluable

The divergences are only relevant in identifying wave 3's in five way moves, which means there is still a wave 5 to come, hence why people continually lose their money using the RSI in this way

Hi Trendfriend, and fellow KAZ watchers,

Here's a snap-shop of some of the indicators I use to help me enter a trade, and none of them fill me with confidence:




and here's a daily chart, which shows a security in peril (sadly):





Sure, there are oversold levels and indicators; moreover, the macro part of my thinking points me towards the RNS, the company cash data (from companies house no less), as well as the data available via Reuters and the LSE (with respect to the debt/bond issuance and Net Asset / Book value), but still I get nervous about KAZ.


So, will it get to £17 - sure why not!

It has done it twice already from low valuations.

Just don't ask me when!


Wishing you all the best of luck.

I was hoping for a double bottom formation . (The initial trade was more or less based on this)The initial bounce was good but now its gone back to that area its not so good. I dont like it when it test a crucial level so soon after a bounce.
Im not brave enough to attempt a second slice of the pie

Hi ggok
Yes you can use fib projection but it will be in the minus zones...lol
Best would be to use point and figure targets.so if any ones got updata please let us know.cheers.
it can be calculated manually but my minds not up to it this late on. I should imagin it will be a low figure
heres the daily point and figure chart so may be able to work this out.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/kazpoint30thjan2014.png
chartsview.co.uk/learning/Point-Figure-Charting.html
GGOK wrote:

Hi trendfriend
yes the rsi can be used as a sign of divergence but you cant solely rely on this to be the case all the time. Its risky to just rely on this by itself. If you use it with other indicators or candlestick patterns it can help.I would prefer to use the divergence whilst kaz is clearly in an up trend and not testing the all time lows. For Kaz i would not personally take to much note of this as todays candle is really bearish which shows the bears are currently in charge. If they take the price to a new low it can speed up the selling so hence why its a tad risky to go long now. Your better of waiting for a reversal signal to form like the 123 low signal. Kaz needs higher highs but all its getting is lower lows so its a risky trade from a long perspective.
so best used with other methods and not by itself.
This is just my opinion.
Trendfriend wrote:

Remo, Jackozy, Libero.

This is also a weekly chart of Kaz.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...VM%3D&symbol=L%5EKAZ
This is close up of the same chart.
uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...vI%3D&symbol=L%5EKAZ

Would you not agree there is divergence on the rsi??
Is this not a sign a bottom may be forming??

Or this not really a reliable enough indicator?

I think i may have got this completely wrong(usually do), and would really be intersted in your views on RSI divergences please.

Thanks in advance.
Trendfriend.

Oh dear.
So there doesn't seem to be a support after 170. Could you use fibs to figure out how low it could go?
Thanks
G

here is your chart. Its as far back as it goes.
weekly chart


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/kaz30thjan2014.png

Its risky going long from here due to the fact that its the second attempt. That basically means the area has be weakened so a break out may be looming to the downside.This has finished bang on the support. Always riskier on a second attempt so soon.

yeah, me too: wait till evidence of a trend change

Hi
Has anyone got a 10 year chart for KAZ or an idea of where the next supports lie please?


I think EMs have been hammered and so have the miners cause of the AUD USD. AUD USD looks like its in the last wave of its downfall, in which case, if this turns, so will the miners and the EMs.

Anyway, if anyone can provide some pretty pictures and numbers for this below 170, I would be interested.

Thanks.

Gee

id stay out of kaz as its the second attempt..

Jackozy wrote:
Hi Jackozy,

It sure is looking scary!

I did post yesterday that I did lock in profit and did move my stop loss...

... But the concerns I have are on going and to do with the macro picture, and the so-called recovery. Emerging Market fears aren't going away it seems, and with Ukraine's woes, perhaps there's a focus on the CIS nations to come (Kazakhstan being one of them)? Who knows!

Speaking of EMs, it seems that Zimbabweans are now refusing take the SA Rand - Imagine that! Well, they have first hand experience of currency inflation I guess!

Anyway, KAZ is fighting back but it will do well to close above 170 now. We'll see.

Hi Libero,

This fell back of double (almost triple) resistance at 188/9p perfectly today so was a good place to close longs from 171p and short. Easy to say in hindsight, but it's pretty clear on yesterday's closing chart:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/FTS...KAZdaily29_01_14.png

Experience has taught me to expect the unexpected, but I'm ready to throw in the towel here with KAZ - and the broader markets

Here's a "5-minute" chart of KAZ today:



It gaps up (impressively), and now finds itself breaching its all time low (intra-day).

Moreover, looking at the current performance, it could well close on an all-time low too.

At this rate, it might be my queue to take a rest from trading all together until the markets become self-performing again!