Here we go - bang on the downtrend resistance and gap at today's high:



dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/SXXdaily03_05_13.gif

I'm out now and wait for a retrace or a break of 30p

projected move if either the tri or cup n handle play out are :

note this is monthly chart... so can coil in this zone until ready to break one way or another

approx 50p - for asc tri
42p - for CnH.

upward trendline must hold.

lovely candle on the monthly

also cup n handle formation possible - it's monthly chart - so looking like ~22p or 50% of April monthly candle needs to hold....

looks good tho

This is now approaching significant resistance at the gap, downtrend from the all time high and 29/30p area:




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/SXXdaily01_05_13.gif

I'll be out at this point and waiting for retrace or a break of 30p

This doesn't appear to have been discussed recently according to the search facility on here but it's been true to form and behaved like the very good little TA puppy it is




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20815047/SXXdaily26_04_13.gif

As it turned out, 18.5p did appear to be the bottom, at least for now. Since then it's made a nice higher low at 20p and on Wednesday closed above the initial rise's high for the first time. This followed a nice downtrend breakout which was also preceeded perfectly by the breakout and backtest of the divergent RSI downtrend. This is absolute textbook stuff.

Resistances are at 26.25p (previous low), 28.75p (gap), 30p and 36.75p. There could be a nice cup and handle forming with a 30p rim here which would have a 47p target and that coincides with a possible wave extension target of the move from 12.625p to 30p to 18p

You have to be patient with this share but it follows the technicals better than almost any other share I've seen.

Thanks to Jackozy and diver993 for sharing your knowledge. Again you are right, sp could go down further, according to today’s RNS.

Firstly, the revised determination date - 2nd July, 6 week delay. Think about that after May the market goes down turn as usually. How can sp maintains this level until July, though at this moment is up to 21p for sell ?

Secondly, there is some events market in panic.

I have sold/exit 75% totally now.

PS: Sorry, I forgot yesterday you travel, are you in UK now?

OG

it's a peach can it sustain for the whole day.... good area to form one, maybe a bit to early for hammertime....or is it ?

dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/SXXdaily27_03_13.gif

apologies for the two posts: I got the chart image wrong on the first attempt. As the school teacher said "Must try harder!"

Sirius appears to love the 78.6 fib. That said 16.4p could well be the target for this retrace.

From there it could go two ways: obviously, up or down:)It will either retrace 50-61.8% of the ((b)) wave and then head down to 8.5p: being approx 78.6% of the entire move up to 37.19; or it will head north towards 40 - 42p. IMO the area to watch will be 24p ish. If it breaks the resistance at 26.2 this should head for the high ground, whereas as failure will lead to the 'patience area'

Sirius appears to love the 78.6 fib. That said 16.4p could well be the target for this retrace.

From there it could go two ways: obviously, up or down:)It will either retrace 50-61.8% of the ((b)) wave and then head down to 8.5p: being approx 78.6% of the entire move up to 37.19; or it will head north towards 40 - 42p. IMO the area to watch will be 24p ish. If it breaks the resistance at 26.2 this should head for the high ground, whereas as failure will lead to the 'patience area'

Thanks OG but I am still learning and certainly no master!

I didn't buy 19.5p after all, partly because I was travelling yesterday (am back in the UK for a week!) but also because it didn't give a convincing bounce. I'm content to wait until there's been confirmation of a low.

There's further support at 18.5p but it that goes then the main trendline is c. 13.5p.

I'm not sure this is the bottom here yet and can even see a sub 12.5p possibility of 18.5p doesn't hold.

I won't be trying to catch the bottom on this and am happy to buy at a higher price if need be as a long as there's been confirmation of a low.

Cheers.

Hi Jackozy,

You are so so right. Today 18.75 - 19.5p. Quite sometime on 19p-19.75p. I must admit that you are master of trade. I exit 5000 CFG SXX at 19.5p. Me think that this share uncertanty is quite sometime and margin is 25%, and I have to reduce the size.

OG

Jackozy,

Your post 14:18 is very helpful. I feel that I really learn something. Many thanks.

OG,

I wouldn't automatically buy the breakout of the RSI downtrend as it's just not that simple and it's a very short term downtrend so a breakout may be false.

I would automatically buy 19.5p however as that's a known support and a Fib level and perhaps more importantly if you're not a trader but believe in the company's fundamentals it's also a good entry for a longer term hold.

The problem with buying the RSI breakout is that there are clear resistances ahead - the gap and 30p so actually it would make more sense to wait for a break of 30p if 19.5p doesn't come.

Hope that helps.

Hi Jackozy,

In your RSI chart, the highest line declines (bearish div) and the the lowest line ascents (bullish div). Will you buy the bearish div disappear, and bullish div continue? Or will you buy as the sp hit the lowest target 19.5p?

Try to learn from a trader. Can I? I will never be a trader, but for my long entering point in future, I just want to do right thing.

og

Hi OG,

I use the closing price for gaps which I have at 28.75p so if the SP closes above that then the gap resistance has gone or been weakened imho.

Re the bullish RSI divergence, it's shown on the daily chart I posted. I'm afraid that what you've drawn is not a bullish divergence. I'd also be wary of using such short term charts on an AIM stock - they're not very reliable.

The RSI downtrend I refer to is also the steeper one on my chart. It forms from a bearish divergence and that's an important factor in using RSI for me.

There's still a chance of 19.5p so I'm sitting and waiting to see what happens.

Cheers!

Hi Jackozy,

Appreciated your yesterday post, your reply. As you know I am slow learner, so I still ask your favour for enlightening me. Meanly I try to understand your TA and learn something.

1) gap resistance. I checked with my ADVFN, is it the gap between 26.535p and 28.2117p. If the sp is over 28.2117p, you recognise that gap resistance gone.

2) Friday’s low also formed a bullish divergence. Pls see my draw of 15 minutes chart


uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotsh...Gwgt+&symbol=L%5ESXX

The red line over RSI 14, the one on right is the trend line for low RSI in past a few days, now it is now up, you call it as low RSI also formed a bullish divergence, right or other meaning?

3) “I'll be looking to see if the RSI can break through the shorter term downtrend.”, which line, the high RSI line, or low RSI line, or channel, and which chart, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 1 day?

This morning, sp went down to 22.5p. I guess that you would like sp down to 19.5p.

I know you may be busy. No worry, when you are a bit free.

og

Hi OG & Tj,

Yes, I remember the TA back then and was a little surprised that a usually fairly reliable pattern (the ascending triangle) broke down but that's TA for you - nothing is ever 100%, it's just probabilities

I was waiting for re-entry at 19.5p but not sure that'll come now as 20.5p was bought heavily on Friday. No worries, there's still the gap resistance to overcome and the 30p resistance too so plenty of time to get back in IMHO and there's always the possibility of a minor market correction to consider.

The chart does make for interesting viewing when you look back far enough though:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/SXXdaily17_03_13.gif

This has the making of a huge cup with a possible handle to follow. It's remarkably symmetrical. Key for me will be what happens at RSI resistance. Friday;s low also formed a bullish divergence so I'll be looking to see if the RSI can break through the shorter term downtrend. If it can then that would suggest a continued move up IMHO but I'd still like to get my 19.5p

Either way, it's not a buy for me at 24p. It needs to either break resistance or drop further before I'll be interested again.

Finally, to answer your question, OG, no, I won't still be in the UK on 6th April as I fly back on the 2nd. Thanks, though. It would have been good to meet you and others at the Manchester shindig but sadly I can't.

All the best.

On Greenhill I'm about the same as you - both have potential but both are dogged by their potential outcomes - no guarantees that either will come good Two strange items - gkp - why did two director sell shares? @ 189.50 -sxx why send out all those letters to get share holders to sign up to support the application , didn't like the propect of more delays either Sorry all For speaking fundimentlly - would like to see it from technical point of view support/ resistance thank you best regards Tej

Hi Jackozy,

Probably you still remember the TA of SXX you talked with me and the chart Pennant you plotted at the beginning of Feb. That time sp was in range 28-29p.

By the sp consolidation, it went down to 25p. Then, recent two days, sink to 22p, back to 24p.

How do you view this TA applicability? I think it is applicable to normal market condition and normal company situation (no big good or bad news). Once it has some rumour or a bit uncertainty, the sp just plunges. I wish I buy any share only when it plunges. SXX or other AIM shares have a lot uncertainty. So sp sink event/s would appear. Can I wait? I don't know. On another side, I think sp should goes up in long term as this SXX potash project will go forward.

I read your post on GKP that you are coming in later March. Will you still be in UK on 6 April? I will go for Manchester meeting. If you are there, I would like to meet you.

on greenhill