This could be forming a 123 low???
This is clearly in a down trend as you can see the peaks getting lower and lower.You should also be able to see that there has not been any 123 low breakouts. So when a 123 low does come it adds to the signal
so the level to watch is 0.9344 so about a 100 points away from now.
Obviously the price could still go down furthur.
Ive put this chart up so as you could see what i look for.
So keep an eye out on this.
ive been trading this pair a few times now. The last trade worked out perfectly
if your greedy then you wont win...Take profits when they come




dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/audusd28yhjune.png

im long on this from a first attempt basis of major support.(9405)
i forgot to mention this last night.
Ive got a 40 point stop on this.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/audusd10thjune.png

sorry my chart was configured wrong as the 200ema was not set properly
the one below should be the right one.

dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/audusd4thjune1.png

Hi gg
Im more of a day trader so rarely look at the long term picture. Im all about quick profits from a day trading perspective I focus mainly on the daily charts.
The 123 low works best on daily charts and its aim is to find possible lows.Obviously its not 100% but can keep you out of a falling knife
You could well be right about further down side as the 200ma is an important level and when the price is below its bearish. On your chart it actually bounces of nicely from the 200ema
From a long term perspective ,This currency pair is in a sideways market so basically a sideways trend. If you look carefully you can see a descending triangle on this and the level to watch is 9403.So below this and this would tumble.


dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4899609/audusd4thjunelong.png

Hi Remo, I agree with you on this trade and I also took it and got out with soem proffit.

I was pondering re-entering, but I just looked at the 200ma on the weekly. I hate to be the contrarian here, but it has closed below the 200ma on the weekly and looks like recent rally was just test of the 200ma. This makes me think there will be further down side. What are youre thoughts on closing below the 200ma on the weekly?

Testing the breakout point.
Ive re-entered with 40 point stop.This is after taking a good profit yesterday ,so basically using my free credit ive earned from this .Still would be in profit even if this goes against me

Free trade now ...
this has moved 60+ points since i tipped it.

Possible 123 low breakout????
I normally use a 40 point stop on currency trading when entering on a break out.

I mentioned this last time about the trend line trade
This worked out perfectly

This is moving towards the trend line (10212)slowly. Worth a long on first attempt with tight stops

This has now had 2 goes at the short term downtrend. It needs to break through on the next attempt to open up that main downtrend target:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/AUDUSD4H24_03_13.gif

Remo's downtrend seems the obvious place ie 1.0541 ish.

Not only is it the main downtrend but, if we consider the pennant to have been a wave 4 triangle with wave 1 up from 1.0111 to 1.0301, we also have a wave 5 target of (1.0301-1.0111) 0.019 + (wave 4 low) 1.0341 = 1.0531 which is where the main downtrend will be in a few days' time so EWT suggests this as a target too.

Nice

first target is almost there at 10432 which was the breakout trend line(short term) dont ask me why but for some odd reason even thou the trend lines is higher than the initial break point it still causes a resistance.
second target is the main down trend line at 10540ish
there is also resistance at 10476

Looks good! Have you a target in mind? The downtrend as Remo suggested or the pennant break target?

Bounced nicely off the 4H uptrend support, then broke out of the pennant remo highlighted and backtested it perfectly. Nice call remo!



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/AUDUSD4H21_03_13.gif

sorry forgot to put chart up yesterday.
Theres a nice flag formation on this so possible continuation pattern.
If it breaks out past 10410 then this could move higher towards the main down trend line(10541).

My order at 1.036 got hit so am now long on this. Will add on a break above 1.041 per remo's post.

There may also be another chance to go long on this at the 4H uptrend support at 1.036:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/AUDUSD4H20_03_13.gif

There's an inside bar on this as well now so I'm gonna add to my longs at 10410 with a stop of 50 points

This also broke out nicely after testing the break out point

possible short term 123 low??? This is currently testing the breakout point. stops below 2.
since the stop is quite far away which effects the risk reward im having my stop just below yesterdays low.10264

Disclaimer:

Another thing to note that adds risk to the trade is the EurUsd chart.
There is a case that this chart is showing bullish signs, and I don't often like to take trades where two charts like these are not correlating as much as I thought they would.

I went short on this this morning @ 10238.8 with a ~16 point stop

Initially targeting 10190 but I believe that could be a conservative target. We shall see.




Smaller timeframes such as the 15m showing bearish divergence at those highs.

This is a short term trade, I know there is a support level just below and there is an argument that this will head upwards - but I believe in the short term it will respect the resistance level and it is also why I picked a conservative target.

This followed through last night but I still think there's a chance of 1.0165 area for a long entry with stops below 1.011 as that's the 61 fib of the initial rise (so far).

If it races on then I'll just wait for a retrace. I'm not chasing it.

This has now dropped to an area where there's loads of support and it could be forming a hammer here with a bullish RSI divergence:



dl.dropbox.com/u/20815047/AUDUSDdaily04_03_13.gif

Maybe one to try remo's method of entry half way down the hammer with stop below it if it closes like this.

This ones been playing around with the trend line for a while now and finally has broken though today

Right at the bottom of the symmetrical triangle.

Hi monkeyz

If you're serious about fx research New York closing time

RMc

Updata has the high of the 10th at 1.0601 and flags it as an inside bar. I'd say the major resistance at 1.0623 needs to be considered.

M.

IG charts change at different times so thats most likely why.
on Metastock it changes at 10pm every day but on IG i think it changes at 12am so that will cause a whole load of problems.
we have tested this system out on metastock so dont know what the results would be based on IG but Would be interesting thou to know the difference.
Thanks for letting me know .

Hi Remo on my chart the bar is 5 pips lower than he previous but I am using ig's chart on my ipad which may not be all that accurate

Hi mark PB

Thats not an inside bar as the highs are exactly the same at 10598.Almost thou
It has to be contained within....Well thats how i do it anyway so some may have a different view



dyor

Inside bar on the daily too

Im gonna go long on this at the back test of breakout point at 10555 with a 40 point stop.



remember
trend line levels change every day.


dyor

Hi ross
first thing you need to do is to redraw the trend lines.


Then id be careful with doing anything when the price is near the apex of the triangle as this area is where most real breakouts happen. I would normally short on first attempt of that down trend line but this time due to the apex i wont be doing that.
Im looking to catch the breakout of the triangle this time due to there being an inside bar just above that trend line as well.
My long entry is at 10586 with a 50 point stop due to it being currency.

Hi RMc,

Easy question to answer as far as I'm concerned...leave alone ans wait to see what happens at the downtrend resistance. If it get's that far I personally wouldn't automatically go short as it's not long since it last tested it (I don't like trendline touches too close together). A close above that trendline and I'd be going long - a clear rejection of it and I'd consider a short but I definitely wouldn't do anything until then.

Just my view.

ATB

Hi remo

This has now reinterred the symmetrical triangle
Obviously news driven but how do you see this now



How do we analyse this now. Do we await rejection from the triangle or leave alone?

Regards RMc

Im planning on going long at 10431 with a 40 point stop on a first touch basis trade.
This is at the bottom of the symmetrical triangle.
Theres always risk involved when your entering near the apex of a triangle so bear that in mind.



DYOR
remo

The long entry is wrong for the inside bar entry.
it should read 10573 as the high was 10568.
i could have sworn this level has changed since last night.
Im going mad i think.

This has got an inside bar right at the breakout point so this gives the added signal to go long on the inside bar breakout at 10566 .Thats about 5 pips above the inside bar.Im using 50 point stops on this.
This will be a symmetrical triangle breakout and the trendline as well.This level has some resistance here but if it does punch through then this could really fly. Target could be as high as 500 points.So basically the highs again.So good risk to reward on this.
This is getting close to the apex so hopefully should breakout before geting there.
closeup

dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/audusd17thdec1.png

far away

dl.dropbox.com/u/4899609/audusd17thdecfar.png

so long above 10566 with 50 point stop
DYOR

Normally i would short the trend line on first attempt but due to the assending triangle breakout i did not.
catching break outs is a dangerous game as most are false breakouts. So if this does finish above that trend line then i would look to enter on a pull back to test the trend line.
The apex is always a good indication of a breakout looming , and this is in the apex zone hense why going short can be a tad risky. This is just my own way of doing things and everyone has a different way.
dyor

Remo

Typically speaking would you wait for a back test of a trend line when taking a trade like this ?

This is breaking out of the main trend line now and the symmetrical triangle as well.
If this finishes above the trend line then that opens up the highs again.



This has been a very profitable trade so far .
DYOR

Ascending triangle breakout
This looks like its going to breakout.
The target should be the main down trendline first.



DYOR